茅台魔咒

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寒武纪股价飙升,短暂超越茅台,A股新股王宝座能否坐稳?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 03:37
Core Viewpoint - The competition between chip giant Cambricon (stock code: 688256.SH) and liquor giant Kweichow Moutai (stock code: 600519.SH) has intensified, with Cambricon briefly surpassing Moutai in stock price on August 27, 2023, marking a significant moment in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Cambricon's stock price surged from 520.67 yuan per share on July 11 to a peak of 1464.98 yuan on August 27, representing an increase of over 180% [1]. - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1496.33 yuan and 1630.32 yuan earlier in the year, with a recent closing price of 1448 yuan, indicating a slight decline [2]. - Cambricon's stock has increased nearly 30 times from its low of 54.15 yuan in January 2023 [2]. Group 2: Wealth Creation - The stock price increase of Cambricon has created significant wealth for investors, including major shareholder Zhang Jianping, whose holdings are valued at nearly 8 billion yuan, resulting in a profit of approximately 5 billion yuan [2]. - Cambricon's founder, Chen Tianshi, has also seen his wealth rise, with his stake valued at around 164 billion yuan based on the stock price on August 27 [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Cambricon reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering year-on-year growth of 4347.82%, with a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan [3]. - The company achieved profitability for the first time in Q4 2024, with a net profit of 355 million yuan in Q1 2025 [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's optimism towards Cambricon is fueled by expectations of domestic substitution and the company's proprietary instruction set and microarchitecture, which are anticipated to benefit its long-term growth [3]. - Despite the current momentum, historical trends suggest that companies attempting to challenge Moutai's dominance often experience significant price corrections, a phenomenon referred to as the "Moutai curse" [3]. - Cambricon's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio stands at 343, significantly higher than the industry median, indicating potential overvaluation and reliance on a limited customer base [3].
新贵“寒王”短暂登顶,茅台是“老虎屁股摸不得”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 01:36
Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has been underperforming compared to the booming AI sector, with the China Liquor Index down 3.06% this year and experiencing five consecutive weeks of decline [2][11]. Industry Performance - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519), traditionally the market leader, has recently been challenged by the new player, Cambrian (688256), which briefly surpassed Moutai's stock price, marking a significant event in the market [3]. - Historical instances of stocks surpassing Moutai, such as China Shipbuilding and Haipuri, have led to significant declines in their stock prices, with some experiencing drops of over 90% [4][5][6][7][8]. Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment cycle, with pressures from macroeconomic conditions and policy tightening affecting consumer demand [10][14]. - Despite the overall pressure, there are signs of a potential rebound in the white liquor sector, with some companies like Jiangjiu and Shendao showing varying degrees of recovery [13]. Recovery Signals - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the white liquor industry is in the process of bottoming out, with expectations for a fundamental recovery by Q3 2025, contingent on various factors including inventory and pricing trends [14]. - Positive government policies aimed at boosting consumption are seen as a core driver for the industry's recovery, with multiple initiatives being rolled out to stimulate demand [15]. Valuation Insights - The white liquor sector is currently viewed as being at a valuation bottom, with low price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential for recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [17][20]. - Analysts from Dongxing Securities highlight that historical patterns suggest stock prices in the white liquor sector tend to recover before the fundamental performance improves, indicating a potential buying opportunity [18]. Future Outlook - The consensus among various securities firms, including Founder Securities and Guohai Securities, is optimistic regarding the white liquor sector's recovery, driven by policy support and improving fundamentals [21][22][23].
南财V快评:“茅台魔咒”再显灵?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-27 15:38
Group 1 - The stock price of AI chip company Cambrian Technology briefly surpassed that of Kweichow Moutai, sparking discussions about the "Moutai Curse" in the A-share market [1][2] - The "Moutai Curse" originated in 2007 when China Shipbuilding became the first high-priced stock in A-shares, but its price plummeted during the 2008 financial crisis [2] - Cambrian's rise is supported by strong performance, with a reported revenue of 2.881 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [2][3] Group 2 - Cambrian's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 343 times, shifting market focus from "can it profit" to "can it sustain profits" [3] - The rise of Cambrian represents a shift from traditional industries like liquor to emerging sectors like AI chips, reflecting a broader economic transformation [3] - The growth of Cambrian is driven by the explosion of global AI computing power and domestic substitution policies, with increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [2]
8月27日复盘:茅台魔咒应验!白酒反而跌得惨?主力这波诱空太离谱
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 12:48
Market Overview - The market showed a normal upward trend in the morning but experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, leading to concerns about a potential market peak [1] - The decline was primarily driven by the real estate and liquor sectors, rather than the technology sector, which raises questions about market dynamics [1] - The performance of the liquor industry, particularly Moutai, is under scrutiny as it is often viewed as a benchmark for the market, yet it is currently declining [1] Trading Dynamics - The buying power today was over 2000, indicating normal capital inflow, while selling pressure reached 4000, suggesting a significant institutional exit from the market [3] - The increase in selling pressure since Monday indicates a bearish sentiment, with a potential market top if buying power falls below 1000 [3] Sector Performance - The strongest sectors today included consumer goods and technology, but overall, the number of stocks hitting the daily limit was low, indicating a lack of strong market momentum [5] - The market is characterized by a lack of clear hot sectors, with only a few stocks showing significant performance, which is unusual for a market of this size [5] Investment Sentiment - The current market sentiment is cautious, with investors advised to consider defensive strategies if the trend continues [5] - The lack of robust performance in traditionally strong sectors suggests a need for investors to reassess their positions and possibly shift focus to safer assets [5]
突发利空!A股午盘跳水,调整开始了吗,“茅台魔咒”重现?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 09:52
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment after two days of risk warnings, with technology stocks peaking due to AI and policy influences, leading to a substantial sell-off in the afternoon session [1][2]. Market Performance - The morning trading session saw the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs, but with a notable decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day, indicating a divergence in market performance [2][3]. - The market's total trading volume reached approximately 3.2 trillion yuan, with over 4,700 stocks declining, reflecting a bearish market sentiment [1][8]. Sector Analysis - There was an extreme divergence between technology stocks and non-technology stocks, with technology stocks experiencing significant gains while non-technology stocks faced substantial losses [2][3]. - Only the communication sector showed an increase, while sectors such as beauty care, real estate, and textiles saw significant declines, with losses ranging from 1.55% to 5.32% [9]. Regulatory and Market Sentiment - A report indicated that Guojin Securities raised the margin requirements for financing, suggesting a heightened risk perception in the market [3]. - There are ongoing discussions about the management's desire for a slow bull market to ensure that the general public benefits from the stock market's wealth effect, rather than experiencing volatile swings [4][5]. Notable Stock Movements - Cambrian Technology's stock price peaked at 1,464.98 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai, but historically, stocks that exceed Moutai's price tend to experience significant declines, leading to the "Moutai curse" phenomenon [8]. Economic Context - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to promote and regulate cross-border data flow, aiming to accelerate the development of international data service businesses, which may impact market dynamics [6].
发生了什么?天量成交3.2万亿!三大指数却午后跳水,新晋股王也只当了7分钟,股民:暴跌的原因是茅台魔咒......
雪球· 2025-08-27 08:50
Market Overview - The three major indices in A-shares collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76%, Shenzhen Component down 1.43%, and ChiNext down 0.69% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 31,978 billion yuan, an increase of 4,880 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,700 stocks declining [1][6] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed positively included CPO, rare earth permanent magnets, and semiconductors, while the clothing and home textiles, real estate, liquor, innovative drugs, and education sectors saw the largest declines [1][4] - Notably, the trading volume today was the second highest in history, surpassing 31,700 billion yuan, and the margin balance reached 22,076 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [6][7] Company Spotlight: Cambrian - Cambrian's stock price surged to a peak of 1,462 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai, becoming the new stock king in A-shares, closing at 1,372.1 yuan with a 3.24% increase [10][11] - For the first half of 2025, Cambrian reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 4,347.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, reversing a loss from the previous year [13][14] - Cambrian's R&D investment was 456 million yuan, a 2.01% increase year-on-year, but the proportion of R&D expenses to revenue dropped to 15.85% from 690.92% in the previous year [15] AI Industry Insights - The AI industry chain saw a collective rise, with semiconductor and chip sectors experiencing significant gains, despite a market downturn in the afternoon [18][19] - The State Council released opinions on the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming for deep integration of AI with six key areas by 2027, and a significant expansion of the AI economy by 2030 [21]
突发大跳水!A股魔咒再现!创新药概念股走低
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-08-27 08:25
就在寒武纪股价超越了贵州茅台,成为市场第一高价股的时候,没想到就引发了一场大跳水!不过总体 来说,这一次的调整应该算是健康的,总不能天天大涨,永不调整吧! 一起看看今天市场发生了什么事情。 8月27日,市场午后突变,富时中国A50期货指数跌超2%,A股三大指数跳水,上证指数跌近2%,深证 成指跌约1.5%,科创50指数抹去了盘中4%的涨幅。创业板指尾盘翻绿,此前一度涨近3%。 截至收盘,沪指跌1.76%,深成指跌1.43%,创业板指跌0.69%。 市场共633只个股上涨,47只个股涨停,4764只个股下跌。 创新药概念股走低,立方制药跌停,悦康药业、广生堂跌超10%。 房地产板块调整,深深房A跌停。 这背后可能也是一种市场的博弈,当股价超过茅台的时候,意味着市场的情绪已经达到了一个极点,所 以很容易就触发了回调。 申万宏源策略此前分析,历来都没有脱离基本面的牛市,全面牛市需要基本面基础更坚实。2026年中基 本面改善预期,历史级别的供给出清是基础。2026年中拐点到来前,供给逻辑能够为拐点预期提供足够 安全垫。但拐点到来后,基本面改善的持续性和弹性,仍依赖于需求亮点的多寡。 申万宏源表示,避免A股市场大幅波动 ...
突发大跳水!A股,魔咒再现!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-08-27 07:59
兄弟姐妹们啊,就在寒武纪股价超越了贵州茅台,成为市场第一高价股的时候,没想到就引发了一场大 跳水!不过总体来说,这一次的调整应该算是健康的,总不能天天大涨,永不调整吧! 一起看看今天市场发生了什么事情。 8月27日,市场午后突变,富时中国A50期货指数跌超2%,A股三大指数跳水,上证指数跌近2%,深证 成指跌约1.5%,科创50指数抹去了盘中4%的涨幅。创业板指尾盘翻绿,此前一度涨近3%。 截至收盘,沪指跌1.76%,深成指跌1.43%,创业板指跌0.69%。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3800.35 | 12295.07 | 1550.44 | | -68.03 - -1.76% - -178.10 -1.43% - - 41.47 - -2.60% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1272.56 | 2723.20 | 6057.25 | | +1.68 +0.13% -18.93 -0.69% -107.44 -1.74% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 ...
寒武纪股价与茅台差距只有90元 ,寒武纪能否打破A股“老二魔咒”?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 14:26
#寒武纪股价紧逼贵州茅台#【#寒武纪股价与茅台差距只有90元# ,寒武纪能否打破A股"老二魔咒"?】 寒武纪(688256.SH)股价紧逼贵州茅台(600519.SH),截至8月26日收盘,两者股价相差不到100 元。 8月26日晚间,寒武纪发布2025年中报,上半年营业收入28.81亿元,同比增长4347.82%;净利润10.38 亿元,实现扭亏为盈。该公司在2024年四季度首次实现单季盈利,并在2025年一季度延续业绩涨势。在 业内看来,业绩改善和国产替代预期或是股价大涨的影响因素。 半年报披露之前,寒武纪股价已经凌厉上扬。8月20日,该股站上千元大关,随后震荡上行,25日最高 冲至1391元/股。截至26日收盘,该股与A股第一高价股贵州茅台的股价,差距仅有90.61元/股。 这是目前A股市场仅有的两只千元股。在A股市场30余年的历程中,共有7只股票的股价跻身千元阵营, 因不多见而成为资本市场的关注焦点。除上述两只股票外,还有股价曾超过贵州茅台的飞乐股份(现为 中安科,600654.SH)、真空电子(现为云赛智联,600602.SH),以及曾挑战贵州茅台股价的石头科 技(688169.SH)、爱美客(30 ...
与茅台差距只有90元,寒武纪能否打破A股“老二魔咒”?
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-08-26 14:08
寒武纪(688256.SH)股价紧逼贵州茅台(600519.SH),截至8月26日收盘,两者股价相差不到100 元。 8月26日晚间,寒武纪发布2025年中报,上半年营业收入28.81亿元,同比增长4347.82%;净利润10.38 亿元,实现扭亏为盈。该公司在2024年四季度首次实现单季盈利,并在2025年一季度延续业绩涨势。在 业内看来,业绩改善和国产替代预期或是股价大涨的影响因素。 半年报披露之前,寒武纪股价已经凌厉上扬。8月20日,该股站上千元大关,随后震荡上行,25日最高 冲至1391元/股。截至26日收盘,该股与A股第一高价股贵州茅台的股价,差距仅有90.61元/股。 这是目前A股市场仅有的两只千元股。在A股市场30余年的历程中,共有7只股票的股价跻身千元阵营, 因不多见而成为资本市场的关注焦点。除上述两只股票外,还有股价曾超过贵州茅台的飞乐股份(现为 中安科,600654.SH)、真空电子(现为云赛智联,600602.SH),以及曾挑战贵州茅台股价的石头科 技(688169.SH)、爱美客(300896.SZ)和禾迈股份(688032.SH)。 而A股市场一直存在着"茅台魔咒",此前不管是股价高 ...