高盛的评论反映出市场的忧虑：日本长期国债收益率可能再度大幅攀升，与今年早些时候因财政担忧导 致日本国债波动并外溢至全球市场的情形类似。日本首相高市早苗已释放更激进的财政信号，称其首个 刺激计划将成为推动新投资和增长的跳板。 日媒近日报道，政府正在考虑为本财年追加约14万亿日元预算，规模将超过去年的13.9万亿日元。 新华财经北京11月17日电高盛表示，随着投资者开始担忧日本推出的刺激规模可能大于预期，日本的财 政风险溢价正在回归，这将给长期国债和日元带来压力。 策略师指出，市场越来越担心日本政府可能会放弃其"年度预算收支平衡"承诺以及长期财政目标。高盛 称："即便最终结果没有想象中那么极端，但市场对财政问题的敏感度明显上升，这意味着任何通往最 终缓和的道路都可能是颠簸的。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Political concerns may continue to weigh on the British pound, despite potential positive market reactions to the budget announcement on November 26 [1] Group 1: Political Risks - The leadership challenge to Prime Minister Starmer poses significant political risks that could affect the pound [1] - Uncertainty regarding potential successors who may not adhere to fiscal discipline could further widen the risk premium [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - While avoiding negative surprises in the budget could benefit the pound's recovery, the underlying political risks are likely to prevent a complete elimination of the fiscal risk premium [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced significant depreciation against the US dollar, reflecting growing market concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, with the 30-year UK government bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998 [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The British pound was reported at 1.3369 against the US dollar, down 0.17% from the previous close of 1.3392 [1] - The pound experienced its largest single-day decline since June 17, dropping over 1% [1] - The pound fell 1.2% to 1.33 USD and 0.7% to 86.98 pence against the euro, making it the worst-performing G10 currency of the day [1] Group 2: Bond Market Reaction - There was widespread selling of UK government bonds, with the 30-year bond yield rising by 5 basis points to 5.69%, marking the highest level since May 1998 [1] - The global bond markets are under pressure due to rising debt levels, exacerbating concerns about the UK's fiscal health [1] Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - Market sentiment is increasingly worried about the UK government's ability to manage its finances, leading to a demand for higher risk premiums on the pound [1] - The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, is expected to raise taxes in the upcoming autumn budget to meet fiscal targets, which may pose additional challenges to economic growth [1] - Analysts indicate that the UK is particularly vulnerable to fiscal risks as the autumn budget approaches, which will continue to act as a headwind for the pound [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Recent candlestick patterns for the pound against the dollar show multiple short bodies and balanced wicks, indicating a range-bound trading environment rather than a clear trend [1] - The long bearish candlestick on September 2 suggests a significant shift in market sentiment, with bearish forces gaining dominance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current crisis in the U.S. bond market is driven by foreign investors' reluctance to finance the U.S. fiscal and current account deficits at current price levels, which can only be addressed by Congress through fiscal tightening, not by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy intervention [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market and Foreign Investment - Deutsche Bank reports a failed auction of U.S. bonds and a weakening dollar, indicating that foreign investors are "boycotting" U.S. assets [1]. - The bank warns of increased volatility in the market as foreign investors are unwilling to finance U.S. deficits at current levels [1][4]. - The behavior of Asian investors is highlighted as a key indicator for the resilience of U.S. stocks, with a focus on their reactions during Asian trading hours [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Resilience - Deutsche Bank suggests that the resilience of the U.S. stock market will be tested, as the current environment makes it difficult for stocks to maintain strength [3]. - The increase in U.S. yields and stock prices during 2023-2024 was based on a reassessment of growth expectations, which is now overshadowed by rising fiscal risk premiums [3]. Group 3: Solutions to the Crisis - The bank emphasizes that only Congress can resolve the fiscal issues, with two potential solutions: implementing stricter fiscal policies or allowing the non-dollar value of U.S. debt to decrease significantly to attract foreign investors [4]. - Financial repression measures, such as shortening the duration of U.S. debt, have been discussed but come with risks of increased debt rollover [4].

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO's report suggests that the current macroeconomic developments are self-destructive for the U.S., advocating for a reduced allocation to the dollar and a shift towards long-duration bonds in Europe, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK [1] Group 1: Dollar's Status - The report indicates that the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency is not guaranteed, as changes in U.S. trade policy prompt investors to reassess long-term assumptions about the U.S. investment environment [2] - Recent declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasury bonds suggest a potential shift towards a more multipolar world, reducing reliance on a single reserve currency [2] Group 2: Investment Paradigm Shift - PIMCO notes a transformation in the paradigm of holding U.S. assets, highlighting that the U.S. has historically benefited from a consumption-driven economy, leading to a capital account surplus [3] - The disruption caused by tariffs may complicate the financing of the U.S. dual current account and fiscal deficits, leading to investor confusion regarding the extent of U.S. asset holdings [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The report outlines that the U.S. faces high sovereign debt levels and inflation exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, complicating the Fed's ability to balance inflation expectations with growth prospects [4] - Other regions may experience currency appreciation, allowing central banks like the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank to adopt more dovish stances [4] Group 4: Shift Towards Domestic Assets - PIMCO emphasizes that as the global order evolves, U.S. investors may prioritize capital returns over equity returns, leading to a diversification of investments [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - PIMCO recommends a reduced allocation to the dollar due to the U.S. having the largest negative net international investment position, suggesting that the dollar may weaken as this balance adjusts [6] - The report advocates for a higher allocation to global duration, particularly in Europe, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK, as these options appear more attractive compared to the U.S. [6] - It also suggests benefiting from a steepening yield curve and reducing credit exposure, anticipating a widening gap between investment-grade and high-yield credit [6]