Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 195.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 130 billion yuan after accounting for 65.5 billion yuan maturing that day [3][4]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a balanced improvement in funding conditions, with overnight repurchase rates dropping by 9 basis points to around 1.41%. The overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system also fell to 1.43% [5][6]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks remained stable at approximately 1.63% [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.09%, 10-year by 0.02%, 5-year by 0.03%, and 2-year by 0.01% [11]. Government Procurement - The Ministry of Finance announced that the national government procurement scale for 2024 is projected to be 3,375.043 billion yuan, with goods, engineering, and services accounting for 23.54%, 41.01%, and 35.45% respectively [12]. Global Macro Developments - Japan's Prime Minister is set to propose a significant economic stimulus plan, indicating potential substantial spending to support the economy [14]. - South Korea's M2 money supply reached 4,430.5 trillion won (approximately 3.02 trillion USD) in September, marking a 0.7% month-on-month increase and an 8.5% year-on-year surge [14]. Bond Issuance Events - The China Development Bank plans to issue up to 19 billion yuan in three phases of fixed-rate bonds on November 13 [16]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will auction 800 billion yen of 20-year government bonds on November 19 [16]. Negative Events in Bond Market - Several companies, including Aerospace Hongtu and Zhejiang Yitian, have seen downgrades in their credit ratings or outlooks, indicating potential risks in the bond market [17]. Non-Standard Asset Risks - Various non-standard assets have been flagged for risk, including trust plans and private equity funds, highlighting ongoing concerns in the investment landscape [18].

Report Title - "Bond Daily Report: Emphasize the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Balance the Interest Rate Parity Relationship - Interpretation of the 2025 Q3 Monetary Policy Report" [1] Report Summary - On November 12, 2025, the central bank released the Q3 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The overall tone has changed, with liquidity, entity financing, cost reduction, exchange rate, and interest rate policies all showing corresponding adjustments [6]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report sends a strong signal for steady growth, is more cautious about the external situation, and strengthens the demand for steady growth led by domestic demand. The policy tone has been adjusted, and the possibility of front - loaded monetary policy next year cannot be ruled out. Although the statement of "preventing capital idling" is removed, the space for significant easing is limited. It also guides the market to rationally view the credit growth rate affected by factors such as debt replacement and proposes to maintain a "reasonable interest rate parity relationship" [3][32]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Focus on Steady Growth and Acknowledge the Improvement in Price Operation - Be cautious about the external situation and have a strong demand for domestic steady growth and stable expectations. The description of the external environment has become more cautious, and more emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand in the internal environment. The report describes price operation more positively, acknowledging the marginal changes in CPI and PPI and also emphasizing long - term supply - demand contradictions [3][7][8] 2. Change from "Implementing in Detail" to "Implementing Well", and from "Counter - cyclical" to "Counter - cyclical and Cross - cyclical" - "Implementing in detail" is changed to "implementing well", and "counter - cyclical adjustment" is adjusted to "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment". This does not mean that the window for aggregate easing is completely closed [3][11] 3. Do Not Mention "Preventing Capital Idling", but Still Pay Attention to Overnight Fund Operation - The statement of "preventing capital idling" is not mentioned, but the control over the money market is strengthened, and it is difficult to expect a significant loosening of capital prices. The operation time of outright repurchase and MLF is clearly defined [3][14][15] 4. Maintain a Reasonable Growth of Financial Aggregates and Pay More Attention to Social Financing and Money Supply - Emphasize maintaining a reasonable growth of financial aggregates, mainly focusing on social financing scale and money supply. The credit growth rate has declined due to the crowding - out effect of replacement bonds. Continue to promote the reduction of the comprehensive social financing cost and pay attention to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks [3][19][20] 5. Exchange Rate Pressure Eases, and the Statement of "Three Resolves" Fades - In the exchange rate statement, the emphasis is on preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and the statement of "three resolves" is faded, indicating that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased [3][23] 6. Do Not Directly Mention "Pay Attention to the Trend of Long - term Interest Rates", but Emphasize Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Parity - The text does not directly mention "pay attention to the trend of long - term yields", but proposes to balance the interest rate parity relationship of each group to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, and lists several key interest rate relationships [3][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were weak in the short - term and strong in the medium - long term. The yields of 2 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.15 - 0.40bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 0.30 and 0.75bp to 1.80% and 2.15% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.49%. The central bank had a net investment of 20 billion yuan in the open - market treasury bond trading in October. Domestically, in October, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to an increase, the core CPI continued to rise, and the decline of PPI narrowed for the third consecutive month. The official manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8% to 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI index was above the critical point, indicating stable overall production and business activities. Overseas, the US labor market cooled significantly, with a total decrease of 45,000 in ADP employment in the four weeks up to October 25th, increasing the risk of employment decline. Some Fed officials were worried about the current inflation risk, and there was still uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cut in December. Strategically, the central bank's treasury bond trading operations in October were prudent, but the bond - buying operations still sent a loose signal to the market. In the future, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of the loose fiscal policy still need a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to mainly purchase medium - and short - term treasury bonds. In the short term, short - term interest rates are expected to continue to decline and may drive long - term interest rates down. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closing price was 108.520, up 0.02%; trading volume was 55,607, an increase of 3,414. TF main contract closing price was 105.970, up 0.03%; trading volume was 40,159, a decrease of 8,173. TS main contract closing price was 102.472, up 0.01%; trading volume was 20,087, a decrease of 8,335. TL main contract closing price was 116.450, up 0.09%; trading volume was 87,575, an increase of 14,105 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.25, up 0.00; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.93, down 0.11. T2512 - 2603 spread was 0.23, down 0.01; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.55, down 0.01. TF2512 - 2603 spread was 0.03, down 0.01; TS12 - T12 spread was - 6.05, down 0.04. TS2512 - 2603 spread was 0.05, down 0.00; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.50, down 0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions (Lots) - T main contract open interest was 221,517, T top 20 short positions were 258,268, down 4,032; T top 20 long positions were 289,384, up 2,893; T top 20 net short positions were 21,384, up 421. TF main contract open interest was 131,209, down 578; TF top 20 long positions were 131,595, down 73; TF top 20 short positions were 152,985, up 2,052; TF top 20 net short positions were 21,390, up 2,125. TS main contract open interest was 64,193, down 1,509; TS top 20 long positions were 67,227, down 230; TS top 20 short positions were 77,892, down 481; TS top 20 net short positions were 10,665, down 251. TL main contract open interest was 122,816, down 2,848; TL top 20 long positions were 134,404, down 1,327; TL top 20 short positions were 155,668, down 312; TL top 20 net short positions were 21,264, up 1,015 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB (4y) was 106.5906, up 0.0305; 250018.IB (4y) was 99.0955, up 0.0257. 250003.IB (4y) was 99.6143, up 0.0040; 240020.IB (4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0076. 220016.IB (1.7y) was 101.8937, up 0.0012; 250012.IB (2y) was 100.0485, up 0.0038. 210005.IB (17y) was 131.4275, up 0.1137; 210014.IB (18y) was 127.725, up 0.1134 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield was 1.4000%, up 0.50bp; 3 - year yield was 1.4350%, down 0.25bp. 5 - year yield was 1.5720%, down 0.80bp; 7 - year yield was 1.6950%, down 0.35bp. 10 - year yield was 1.8040%, down 0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver pledge rate was 1.4279%, up 2.79bp; Shibor overnight rate was 1.4150%, down 9.30bp. 7 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5100%, unchanged; Shibor 7 - day rate was 1.4740%, down 2.70bp. 14 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5550%, up 10.50bp; Shibor 14 - day rate was 1.5000%, down 1.80bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2] 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 195.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 65.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 130 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. It was pointed out that social financing scale and money supply were more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, taking a key step to end the government shutdown [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The US October unadjusted CPI annual rate on November 13 and the US October PPI on November 14 are to be determined [3]

Group 1: Main Views - The content that needs attention in the main body of this monetary policy report is relatively limited, and the report emphasizes internal certainty and focuses more on domestic demand. The probability of an increase in the aggregate policy has increased [1]. - The column content is the focus of this report. Columns 1, 2, and 4 are logically related, aiming to stabilize market sentiment and reduce asset price fluctuations. Multiple perspectives for observing interest - rate comparisons are proposed, continuing the central bank's work direction in recent years [1]. - The stability of the net interest margin (banking system) is a prerequisite for the monetary policy to intensify and benefit the real economy, and the stability of liabilities needs to be considered. After the capital market expectations stabilize, there may be a new round of aggregate policy intensification accompanied by further adjustments to the deposit rates of large - scale banks, and interest rate cuts may occur [2]. - As the spread between the policy rate and the money market stabilizes and the interest - rate corridor compresses, the interest - rate market will gradually find its "anchor" [2]. Group 2: More Positive Tone Macroeconomic Outlook - The summary of the overseas situation in the third - quarter monetary policy report is weaker than that in the second - quarter report. The report points out that "global economic growth momentum is insufficient" in the third quarter, mainly due to the decline in GDP growth rates in the eurozone and the UK, and the decline in exports in the Asia - Pacific region despite the improvement in Japan's GDP. Geopolitical conflicts are emphasized as a potential risk to the stability of the political and financial system [3]. - Domestically, there are some structural improvements in investment, but the overall economic data has shown a weakening trend since the third quarter. The third - quarter report has a marginal change in the description of the aggregate policy, indicating that the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs to be strengthened [3][4]. Next - Stage Monetary Policy Main Ideas - The monetary policy will continue to maintain a moderately loose environment, with almost no new content in this part. The description of the monetary policy in the third - quarter report has been reduced by a paragraph compared with previous reports, possibly because there is little change in the current monetary policy tone and implementation, and the aggregate policy may be announced after the year - end important meeting [4]. Group 3: Column In - Depth Reading Column 1: Scientific View of Aggregate Financial Indicators - Social financing scale and money supply are more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. This column aims to manage expectations, urging the market to look at total financing data and smooth the impact of data on the market [10][11]. - The emphasis on aggregate financial data is reasonable because the economic growth engine has shifted. Advanced manufacturing and other industries are mainly supported by government financing, so focusing only on credit data may lead to a more pessimistic view of the economy [11]. - If credit improves significantly and continuously in the future, it may mean a transformation of the economic engine from structural industries to overall demand recovery. However, the growth of new social financing this year mainly relies on government bond financing, and the comparative advantage will disappear in 2026 [12]. Column 2: The Relationship between Base Money and Money - This column explains the difference between high - powered money and broad money and points out that the expansion of broad money mainly depends on the credit expansion of banks. It supplements Column 1 by emphasizing the importance of aggregate financial data such as money supply [16][17]. Column 4: Maintaining a Reasonable Interest - Rate Comparison Relationship - The column focuses on several aspects of interest - rate comparisons, including the linkage between policy rates and other rates, deposit and loan rates, the comparison effect of bank assets, term spreads, and credit risk [20]. - The stability of the net interest margin is a key factor for policy space. The trend of deposit - rate adjustment continues, and the actions of large - scale banks need to be monitored. Future deposit - rate adjustment analysis should consider the performance of the capital market [21]. - The central bank pays close attention to the shape of the treasury bond yield curve. When the term spread deviates significantly from the central level, the monetary policy may use structural means to guide market correction [22]. - Since the Lujiazui Forum in June 2024, the central bank has taken measures to strengthen the importance of policy rates and the smoothness of the interest - rate transmission mechanism. The spread between the policy rate and the market rate is becoming more stable, and the interest - rate market is gradually finding its "anchor" [22].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of China has released new signals regarding monetary policy, emphasizing the need to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery and to implement a moderately loose monetary policy while enhancing the monetary policy framework [1][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank's report indicates that the domestic economic recovery requires further support and consolidation [1]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and improving the execution and transmission of monetary policy [6]. - The central bank aims to deepen financial reforms and enhance high-level opening-up to build a robust monetary policy system [1][6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - In the oil market, SC futures rose by 2.11% due to concerns over winter fuel supply amid sanctions on Russia, while Saudi Arabia has lowered its official selling price for December [2][10]. - The dual焦 (coking coal and coke) market showed narrow fluctuations, with demand weakening as steel mill profitability dropped below 40% [2][18]. - The European container shipping index (EC) fell by 1.87%, driven by Maersk's price adjustments, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing momentum for the peak season [3][23]. Group 3: Industry News - In October, China's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time, reaching 51.6%, with significant year-on-year growth [7]. - The U.S. announced a suspension of export control rules for a year, which may impact related companies and their operations [5]. Group 4: Financial Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 0.21% [8][9]. - The 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.804%, reflecting a cautious market environment amid ongoing economic uncertainties [9]. Group 5: Agricultural and Commodity Trends - The soybean meal market is expected to remain weak due to a lack of supply adjustments, while the corn market shows slight upward movement [19][20]. - The cotton market is experiencing a range-bound trend as new crop supplies increase, but demand is weakening [22]. Group 6: Shipping and Logistics - The shipping market is facing pressure with an oversupply of capacity expected in the coming months, limiting the potential for price increases [3][23].

Economic Analysis - The report emphasizes the increasing external instability and uncertainty, highlighting severe challenges to the international economic and trade order [2][20] - The global economic growth momentum has been adjusted from "weak" to "insufficient," indicating heightened concerns about the global economic outlook [2][20] - Domestically, while risks and challenges remain, there is a focus on reinforcing the foundation for economic recovery, with a call to maintain strategic determination and confidence [2][20] Policy Framework - The monetary policy stance has shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" to "implementing effective moderate easing," focusing on the effectiveness of policies [3][21] - The report introduces the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, emphasizing coordination with fiscal policy [3][21] - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support key areas such as technological innovation and small and micro enterprises [3][7] Exchange Rate and Risk Management - The report reiterates the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and enhancing expectation guidance [3][22] - The omission of previous warnings about preventing fund circularity suggests that related risks may have been controlled to some extent [3][22] Financial Indicators - The analysis of financial total indicators indicates that the growth of social financing and money supply is generally aligned with nominal economic growth, with a slight lag in loan growth being reasonable [4][8] - The report discusses the long-term impacts of financial market development and structural changes on monetary total and financial regulation [4][8] Digital Economy Support - The report outlines plans for the next phase of financial support for the digital economy, including the development of a financial technology plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period [4][23] Interest Rate Relationships - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, including central bank policy rates and market rates [4][23]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Regulation - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining a reasonable growth in financial totals and utilizing various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, focusing on social financing scale and money supply as more comprehensive indicators compared to bank loans [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stresses the importance of preventing and resolving financial risks in key areas while enhancing overall financial regulation, aiming for high-quality development in the financial sector [2] Group 2: Policy Financial Tools and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission reports that the 500 billion yuan new policy financial tool funds have been fully allocated, effectively supporting private investment projects in key areas and promoting the implementation of these projects [3] - In October, the asset management trust market saw a 12.86% month-on-month growth in the scale of standard trust products, despite a decrease in the number of products, indicating a shift towards standard trust business amid tightening regulations on non-standard products [4] Group 3: Corporate Changes - Lanzhou Bank announced the resignation of its director and vice president Liu Jing due to work adjustments, with plans for Liu to take a position in a controlling subsidiary of the bank [5]

【导读】业内专家解读 2025 年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告 中国基金报记者 张玲 11 月 11 日，央行发布《 2025 年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报 告》）， 总结前三季度货币政策执行情况，分析当前经济金融形势，并明确下一阶段政策思 路。 《报告》显示，今年前三季度 GDP 同比增长 5.2% 。央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，保持 流动性充裕，综合运用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，为经济回升向好和金融市场 稳定运行创造了适宜的货币金融环境。 《报告》四篇专栏分别围绕科学看待金融总量指标、基础货币与货币的关系、金融支持数字 经济发展、保持合理的利率比价关系等展开。其中指出，观察金融总量要看社会融资规模和 货币供应量，货币创造和派生过程受多种因素共同影响等。 对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，《报告》提出，一是保持金融总量合理增长；二是充分发 挥货币信贷政策导向作用；三是把握好利率、汇率内外均衡；四是加快金融市场制度建设和 高水平对外开放；五是积极稳妥防范化解金融风险。 适度宽松的货币政策持续发力 全年经济发展目标有望顺利完成 今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力。金融总量较快增长、社会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery and maintain financial market stability [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to deepen financial reforms and enhance high-level opening-up, aiming to build a robust financial system and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2]. - The report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and ensuring that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth and price level expectations [2][5]. - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][5]. Group 2: Price Level and Economic Indicators - The report indicates an improvement in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first three quarters, consistent with earlier periods [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has been rising since the Spring Festival, reaching a 1% increase in September, with a year-on-year rise of 0.6% for the first three quarters [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has remained stable, with a narrowing decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [3]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Trends - The report highlights a gradual shift away from focusing solely on quantitative targets, advocating for a more comprehensive view of financial metrics such as social financing scale and money supply [4][5]. - As of now, the total balance of RMB loans has reached 270 trillion yuan, while the social financing scale stands at 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development [4][5]. - The growth of social financing and money supply is expected to align with nominal economic growth rates, reflecting changes in the financial supply-side structure [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize financial conditions, while also addressing the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises [2][12]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The PBOC's report indicates that the national economy is progressing steadily, with a solid foundation to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [5][6]. - The report highlights that the monetary policy will focus on maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and enhancing financial support for consumption [2][12]. - As of September, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [4]. Group 2: Financial Indicators and Trends - The report notes that the cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The RMB against the USD appreciated by 1.2% year-to-date, with the loan balance reaching 270 trillion yuan and the total social financing stock at 437 trillion yuan [4]. - The report stresses the need to view financial total indicators comprehensively, suggesting that social financing scale and money supply are more representative than bank loans alone [4]. Group 3: Financial System and Risk Management - The report discusses the relationship between base money and broader money supply, indicating that changes in base money can influence the creation of broad money, but they are not directly correlated [8]. - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified approach to bank money creation, where both loan issuance and bond purchases can support credit expansion [8]. - The report outlines the necessity of enhancing macro-prudential policies to mitigate financial risks and maintain market stability [14].