Monetary Policy Stance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately easing monetary policy [1] - The PBOC will maintain ample liquidity in the market [1] - The PBOC aims to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price stability targets [1] - The PBOC considers promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as an important factor in monetary policy [1] Economic Objectives - The PBOC aims to maintain price levels at a reasonable level [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile; Hot-Rolled Coil: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing demand that falls short of expectations and are in a state of weak and volatile trends. The trend strength for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][3][7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - RB2510 closed at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%), with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots and an open interest of 1,636,544 lots (a decrease of 16,049 lots) [3]. - HC2510 closed at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%), with a trading volume of 551,741 lots and an open interest of 1,291,831 lots (a decrease of 62,005 lots) [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis for RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, and the basis for HC2510 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 243 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar increased by 21 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output, Inventory, and Demand Data (August 14 Steel Union Weekly Data)**: - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.84 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.54 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 14.72 tons [4]. - **Financial Data (July Financial Statistics Report)**: - At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% (compared to 8.3% at the end of June). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan [6]. - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, corporate loans increased by 11.63 trillion yuan, and non-banking financial institution loans increased by 235.7 billion yuan [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Inventory Data (Late July)**: - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons (5.6%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 2.41 million tons (19.5%) from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 670,000 tons (4.3%) from the same ten-day period last month, a decrease of 1.27 million tons (7.9%) from the same ten-day period last year, and an increase of 290,000 tons (2.0%) from the same ten-day period the year before last [6]. - **Automobile Production and Sales Data (July)**: - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% [6]. - From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12% [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Data (Late July)**: - Key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 7.4% decrease from the previous ten-day period); 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous ten-day period); and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 0.5% increase from the previous ten-day period) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of July 2025, the total RMB loan balance reached 268.51 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [1] - The total social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) was recorded at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6% [1] Lending and Financial Structure - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for a significant portion, totaling 11.63 trillion yuan [1] - Long-term loans for enterprises rose by 6.91 trillion yuan, making up nearly 60% of the new loans [1] - Loans in sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy showed growth rates exceeding the overall loan growth [1] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Loan interest rates remained at historical lows, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, down by about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [2] - The difference in growth rates between M1 and M2 narrowed to 3.2%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [2] Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - Over 6.1 trillion yuan in new special bonds were issued in the past month, marking a record high for the year, which is expected to accelerate government bond issuance [3] - The proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are anticipated to support economic recovery and reasonable growth in effective credit demand [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth of loans and the effective financial support for the real economy in China, with a total increase of 12.87 trillion yuan in loans in the first seven months of the year [2] - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans reached 268.51 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, while the total balance of loans in both RMB and foreign currencies was 272.48 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7% [2] - The structure of credit is continuously optimizing, with notable increases in inclusive small and micro loans, which reached a balance of 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector, which totaled 14.79 trillion yuan, up by 8.5% [2] Group 2 - Loan interest rates remain low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both showing declines of about 45 and 30 basis points compared to the same period last year [2][3] - The total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with RMB loans to the real economy increasing by 12.31 trillion yuan [3] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan by the end of July, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6% [4] Group 3 - In terms of deposits, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan and non-financial enterprise deposits increasing by 3.109 trillion yuan [5] - The total balance of deposits in both RMB and foreign currencies reached 327.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9%, while the balance of RMB deposits was 320.67 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% [5] - The implementation of a series of monetary policies has effectively supported the recovery of the real economy, with macroeconomic indicators showing overall positive performance [5]

Core Insights - The financial policies implemented in July have effectively supported the stable growth and structural optimization of credit in China [1] Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans reached 268.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1] - The total social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, growing by 9% year-on-year [1] - The broad money supply (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year increase [1] - The increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with government bond net financing contributing significantly [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Optimization - In the first seven months, loans to enterprises increased by 11.63 trillion yuan, with medium and long-term loans accounting for nearly 60% of this amount [5] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year [6] - Medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector amounted to 14.79 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase, both figures surpassing the growth rate of other loan categories [6] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The new corporate loan interest rate was approximately 3.2% in July, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, while the new personal housing loan rate was around 3.1%, down about 30 basis points [9] - The sustained low interest rates indicate a relatively abundant credit supply, which is beneficial for reducing financial pressure on businesses [9] - The People's Bank of China has been enhancing its monetary policy toolbox to support the real economy and improve the quality of financial support [7]

Group 1: Monetary Statistics - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [2] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of July, the total balance of loans in both domestic and foreign currencies was 272.48 trillion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year [3] - In the first seven months, the increase in RMB loans amounted to 12.87 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 680.7 billion yuan [3] - The total balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 327.83 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9% [4] Group 3: Interest Rates and Market Activity - The weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB lending in July was 1.45%, which is lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [5] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 222.44 trillion yuan in July, with a daily average transaction of 9.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [5] Group 4: Cross-Border Transactions - In July, the amount of cross-border RMB settlements under the current account was 1.57 trillion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 1.15 trillion yuan [6] - The direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounted to 0.64 trillion yuan, with foreign direct investment contributing 0.42 trillion yuan [6]

每经编辑｜段炼 8月13日，央行公布7月金融统计数据报告。 一、广义货币增长8.8% 7月末，广义货币(M2)余额329.94万亿元，同比增长8.8%。狭义货币(M1)余额111.06万亿元，同比增长5.6%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.28万亿元，同比增长 11.8%。前七个月净投放现金4651亿元。 二、前七个月人民币贷款增加12.87万亿元 7月末，本外币贷款余额272.48万亿元，同比增长6.7%。月末人民币贷款余额268.51万亿元，同比增长6.9%。 前七个月人民币贷款增加12.87万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加6807亿元，其中，短期贷款减少3830亿元，中长期贷款增加1.06万亿元；企（事）业单位 贷款增加11.63万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加3.75万亿元，中长期贷款增加6.91万亿元，票据融资增加8247亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款增加2357亿元。 7月末，外币贷款余额5558亿美元，同比下降8.1%。前七个月外币贷款增加137亿美元。 三、前七个月人民币存款增加18.44万亿元 7月末，本外币存款余额327.83万亿元，同比增长9%。月末人民币存款余额320.67万亿元，同比增长8.7%。 ...

本报记者 刘 琪 7月14日，中国人民银行发布2025年上半年金融统计数据。数据显示，6月末，社会融资规模存量为 430.22万亿元，同比增长8.9%；广义货币（M2）余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%；人民币贷款余额 268.56万亿元，同比增长7.1%。 "从行业投向看，贷款行业结构持续优化。"据闫先东介绍，新增贷款主要投向制造业、基础设施业等重 点领域。具体来看，6月末，制造业中长期贷款余额同比增长8.7%，上半年增加9207亿元；基础设施业 中长期贷款余额同比增长7.4%，上半年增加2.18万亿元。 此外，闫先东表示，金融"五篇大文章"领域贷款呈现"总量增长、覆盖面扩大"的特点。5月末，金融"五 篇大文章"贷款余额103.3万亿元，同比增长14%。科技贷款余额43.3万亿元，同比增长12%，其中，科 技型企业贷款余额22.5万亿元，科技相关产业贷款余额32.8万亿元。5月末，绿色、普惠、养老、数字贷 款同比分别增长27.4%、11.2%、38%和9.5%。以上贷款增速均高于同期各项贷款增速。融资可得性明 显提升。服务企业和个人共计7839万户，比上年同期增加588万户；其中，服务企业440万户， ...

Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 1.1% to 82.48 billion MOP, driven by a 3.2% rise in M1 due to a 4.5% increase in demand deposits, despite a 0.2% decrease in currency in circulation [2] - The composition of M2 by currency shows that the shares of MOP, HKD, RMB, and USD are 32.1%, 46.4%, 6.7%, and 12.8% respectively [2] Deposits - Total deposits in the banking system rose by 2.6% to 139.73 billion MOP, with resident deposits increasing by 1.1% to 80.38 billion MOP and non-resident deposits up by 6.5% to 37.39 billion MOP [3] - The public sector's deposits in the banking system increased by 1.6% to 21.97 billion MOP, with the currency composition being 18.8% MOP, 46.7% HKD, 8.3% RMB, and 24.4% USD [3] Loans - Local private sector loans increased by 2.8% to 51.26 billion MOP, with significant quarterly increases in loans to the "Food and Beverage and Hotel" sector (34.3%) and "Water, Electricity, and Gas Production and Supply" sector (18.6%) [4] - Total loans in the banking system rose by 4.2% to 103.52 billion MOP, with the currency composition being 21.4% MOP, 44.1% HKD, 11.2% RMB, and 20.0% USD [4] Operating Ratios - The loan-to-deposit ratio for local residents increased from 49.3% at the end of May to 50.1% at the end of June 2025, while the overall loan-to-deposit ratio, including non-residents, rose from 73.0% to 74.1% [5] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 5.4% [5]

Group 1 - The total deposits of authorized institutions in Hong Kong increased by 0.9% in June 2025, with HKD deposits decreasing by 0.9% and foreign currency deposits rising by 2.4%, reflecting corporate fund flows [1] - In the first half of 2025, total deposits and HKD deposits rose by 7.6% and 7.0% respectively [1] - RMB deposits in Hong Kong fell by 9.6% in June, totaling 882.1 billion RMB, primarily due to corporate fund flows [1] - Cross-border trade settlement RMB remittances totaled 1,223.5 billion RMB in June, up from 1,123.6 billion RMB in May [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances increased by 1.1% in June 2025, with a 2.5% increase in the first half of the year [1] - Loans used in Hong Kong (including trade finance) and loans used outside Hong Kong rose by 0.9% and 1.8% respectively in June [1] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for HKD increased from 70.5% at the end of May to 72.0% at the end of June due to a decrease in HKD deposits and an increase in HKD loans [1] Group 3 - In June, the HKD money supply M2 and M3 both decreased by 0.8%, but increased by 8.4% compared to the same period last year [2] - Seasonally adjusted HKD money supply M1 rose by 4.4% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, partly reflecting investment-related activities [2] - The total money supply M2 and M3 both increased by 0.8% in June, with year-on-year increases of 11.5% for both M2 and M3 [2]