Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

Economic Outlook - The economic operation still faces significant risks and challenges, emphasizing the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking[1] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, requiring only a 4.7% growth in the second half to achieve the annual target of around 5%[1] - The third quarter is identified as a crucial observation window for economic performance[1] Policy Direction - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force and may intensify around September, with a focus on preparing for the upcoming Central Committee meeting[1] - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with structural tools introduced to support small and micro enterprises[2] - Fiscal policy is set to be "more proactive," with over half of the special bonds yet to be issued, as of June 30, 2025, the issuance progress was only 49%[2] Consumption and Industry - The potential for domestic demand needs to be released, with service consumption being key in the second half of the year[2] - The first two batches of funds for replacing old consumer goods totaled 162 billion yuan, with the third batch of 69 billion yuan already allocated[2] - The focus will be on emerging industries and supply-demand rebalancing, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military aviation[2] Capital Market - The capital market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement, with a "slow bull" market pattern confirmed[7] - A-shares have demonstrated resilience, supported by state intervention and external factors such as a weak dollar and supply-demand rebalancing[7] - The market is expected to consolidate in August, with more favorable conditions anticipated around September following tariff and earnings reports[7]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasizes the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential and implement special actions to boost consumption, focusing on both goods and service consumption growth [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The meeting will report on work to the Central Committee and discuss the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding consumption demand while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [1] Group 2: Investment and Risk Management - The meeting highlights the importance of high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [1] - Continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas is a priority, including managing local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts [1] - The need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market is stressed to consolidate the positive momentum of market stabilization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need to continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas, particularly focusing on urban renewal and local government debt management [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The meeting highlights the importance of actively and prudently addressing local government debt risks, with a strict prohibition on the creation of new hidden debts [1] - There is a call for effective and orderly progress in clearing local financing platforms to mitigate financial risks [1] Group 2: Capital Market - The meeting stresses the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [1] - It aims to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market's stabilization and recovery [1]

7月24日，中国证监会召开证监会系统党的建设暨2025 年年中工作会议，提出要牢牢把握市场要 稳、监管要严、功能要强、队伍要过硬这四个着力点，不断集聚稳的力量、壮大进的动能，持续稳定和 活跃资本市场，更好服务经济持续回升向好和中国式现代化大局. 财信证券首席经济学家袁闯认为，今年以来，A 股市场走出了震荡向上的行情，政策层面推动市场 回稳向好的手段与工具不断丰富、成效明显。一是在今年4 月份面临关税冲击、市场出现大幅下跌的背 景下，以中央汇金等为首的国家战略储备力量及时、果断出手，有效稳住了市场情绪、改善了市场预 期。二是不断筑牢市场长期向好的基础，持续培育壮大长期资本、耐心资本，大力推动中长期资金入 市，为市场回稳向好提供源头活水。 7月24日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2025年6月底，我国境内公募基 金管理机构共164家，这些机构管理的公募基金资产净值合计34.39万亿元，较5月末的33.74万亿元增长 1.93%，自2024年以来第9次刷新历史纪录。 同时，保险资金也加大了权益类资产的配置，带动今年上半年以银行为代表的红利类资产价格回 升，各类机构资金对于推动A股市场上行提供了 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, driven by positive infrastructure news such as the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, leading to a strong performance in heavyweight and infrastructure sectors [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) rose by 1.67% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.33% and 2.76%, respectively [1] Index Details - As of July 25, the SSE closed at 3604.45, with a weekly high of 3610.03 and a low of 3586.22, reflecting a total trading volume of 6.97 billion [2] - The market saw a net inflow of -26.96 billion, with 1093 stocks rising and 1156 declining [2] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need for market stability, strict regulation, and strong functionality during its mid-year work meeting, highlighting the resilience of the capital market amid external shocks [3] - The meeting noted that the capital market's internal and external environment remains complex, but factors such as high-quality economic development and improved macro policy expectations provide a foundation for stable market operations [3] Market Outlook - Analysts express optimism regarding the market's future performance, with a focus on the recent breakthrough of the SSE above 3600 points, despite short-term volatility [4] - Continuous entry of policy-driven funds is seen as solidifying the market's bottom, with the Central Huijin Investment's ETF purchases signaling stability and enhancing risk appetite [4] - The overall market structure is expected to remain active due to stable macro expectations and ample liquidity [4]