Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, but the overseas trade situation remains volatile. The upward stimulus to US copper prices from the increase in US aluminum tariffs lacks long - term emotional support. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the marginal stability of processing fees and the widening of the refined - scrap spread have alleviated supply concerns. With weakening consumer resilience, the resistance to copper price increases has grown [1]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in aluminum prices. Low inventory levels support aluminum prices, but the increase in US aluminum tariffs has pressured demand expectations, and short - term aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. - The demand for lead ingots is weak, while primary lead production is rising. The开工 rate of secondary lead enterprises is declining, and if secondary lead production cuts lead to greater scrap price drops, it may deepen the downside space for lead prices [4]. - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, and the expectation of zinc ore oversupply persists. With increasing zinc ingot production and weak terminal consumption, zinc prices face significant downward risks [6]. - The slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply have led to a sharp rebound in tin prices. However, the supply release trend is inevitable, and with no significant increase in demand, the rebound space for tin prices is limited [7]. - Macro uncertainties are high for nickel. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, they remain bearish overall. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the commodity market sentiment, changes in positions, and supply disruptions [10]. - The alumina market has continuous ore - end disturbances, but the over - capacity situation persists. It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price being the core factor [13]. - The cost of stainless steel has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.11% at $9649/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 77500 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9550 - 9700 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2500 to 141350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 3.2 million tons [1]. - Premium: The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 1000 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.67% at $2487/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2450 - 2510 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: The three - location aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and the two - location aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 8.0 million tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.9 million tons [3]. - Premium: The spot premium in East China decreased to 100 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.59% at 16665 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 19 to $1988.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased to 4.49 million tons, and SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 4.17 million tons [4]. - Premium: The refined - scrap spread was - 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import loss was - 887.96 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 1.21% at 22331 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 49.5 to $2722.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 7.74 million tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 million tons [6]. - Premium: The Shanghai basis was 510 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot import loss was - 491.89 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Price: Tin prices rebounded significantly. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE tin this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Reason: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated. The short - term expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Refined nickel production is at a historical high, while stainless steel demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high - priced nickel is limited [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was flat at 60537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed up 1.90% at 61080 yuan. The expected operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 62100 yuan/ton [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.11% to 3055 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.96 to 10.24 million tons [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price as the core factor [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12720 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The Foshan market's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price was 12950 yuan/ton, and the Wuxi market's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price was 13100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 5299 to 124391 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% to 109.96 million tons [15]. - Market: The cost has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, but the decline in consumption intensity may lead to price fluctuations. For aluminum, the rapid depletion of domestic aluminum ingot inventories provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. Lead prices are weak due to limited recycled raw material inventories and the decline in scrap battery prices. Zinc prices face a certain downward risk as the inventory accumulates. Tin prices may decline due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, and the short - term strategy for alumina is to wait and see. Stainless steel prices have certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [1][3][4][5][7][8][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.34% to $9519/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77820 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 166525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts continued to decrease to 32000 tons. - **Market Situation**: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained above 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. However, due to the decline in consumption intensity, the price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is $9400 - 9600/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $2456/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20160 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased rapidly, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 58000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the spot market improved, and the inventory depletion rate accelerated. - **Price Outlook**: The rapid depletion of inventory provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum is $2430 - 2480/ton [3] Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 1.29% to 16681 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1955/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 58200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, and the start - up rate continues to decline. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term lead prices are weak [4] Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.72% to 22256 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $2676/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 83800 tons, and the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. - **Market Situation**: In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloy increased significantly, mainly flowing to Taiwan. The port inventory of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the processing fee increased again. - **Price Outlook**: In the medium term, as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, zinc prices still face a certain downward risk [5] Tin - **Price Movement**: SHFE tin main contract fell 1.10% to 264780 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8056 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2665 tons. - **Market Situation**: The tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the high price suppresses the downstream restocking willingness. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price center may move down. The operating range of SHFE tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $30000 - 33000/ton [6][7] Nickel - **Price Movement**: SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 122890 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.90% to $15490/ton. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 86 tons to 200910 tons. - **Market Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of intermediate products remains high. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term rebound in nickel iron prices provides support, and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $15000 - 16300/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index remained unchanged at 62657 yuan, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.70% to 62140 yuan. - **Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, and the SMM weekly inventory decreased by 141 tons. - **Market Situation**: The disk price is in the cost - intensive area, and there is selling pressure above. - **Price Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate. The operating range of the LC2507 contract is 61100 - 63200 yuan/ton [10] Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.05% to 3207 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9900 tons to 163600 tons. - **Market Situation**: The spot prices in various regions increased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. - **Price Outlook**: Due to the continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, the short - term strategy is to wait and see. The operating range of the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [12][13] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.23% to 12870 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased by 1314 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials were stable, and the long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Qing Shan Group remained unchanged. - **Price Outlook**: The 304 variety has certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [15]