【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 每经AI快讯，2月11日，央行开展785亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%。 每日经济新闻 ...

风险提示：中债-30年期国债财富(总值)指数(代码:CBA21801)来源于中债金融估值中心有限公司("中 债")。本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用抽样复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份券停牌或违约等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构 成对本基金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品 资料概要等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况及销售机构适当性意见 的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基 金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 2月5日，央行通过7天期与14天期逆回购组合操作，实 ...

本周中国央行公开市场将有4055亿元逆回购到期，其中周一至周五公开市场逆回购分别到期750亿元、 1055亿元、750亿元、1185亿元、315亿元。此外，周五还将有5000亿元182天期买断式逆回购到期。 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and winning amount of 315 billion yuan [1] - Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a total of 6000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos conducted over two days to support the liquidity during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market is experiencing a more relaxed funding environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply, while non-bank institutions borrowed overnight against credit bonds at rates below 1.5% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.65% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.590% [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank rate bonds have mostly decreased, with specific yields for various maturities showing declines, such as the 1-year government bond yield at 1.3125% and the 10-year yield at 1.8010% [10] - The data indicates a general downward trend in yields across different types of bonds, including government bonds and policy bank bonds [10] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - The Asian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 51%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector [14] - The global manufacturing PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 51% in January [14] Group 6: Global Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, with officials closely monitoring the impact of euro appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [16]

Group 1 - The central bank began to inject 14-day reverse repos starting February 5, aligning with expectations for the amount and timing across the Spring Festival holiday [1][3] - The current low deposit certificate and credit spreads reflect a market expectation of stable and loose liquidity, with remaining arbitrage opportunities [1][3] - The Spring Festival holiday's impact on interbank liquidity is primarily driven by changes in M0, with cash withdrawals for "red envelopes" still prevalent despite digital payment methods [1][2] Group 2 - The cash leakage due to residents' withdrawals during the Spring Festival is expected to exceed 1.7 trillion, compounded by a funding gap of over 2.2 trillion before the holiday [2] - The central bank's balance sheet measures M0 changes, which may show smaller increases if the holiday falls mid-month due to cash returning to banks later [2] - The 2026 Spring Festival, lasting 9 days, is anticipated to cause significant cash leakage and delayed cash return to banks, similar to trends observed in previous years [1][4] Group 3 - The central bank's reverse repo operations are expected to total 2.4 trillion if maintained at 300 billion daily from February 9 to February 14, matching the anticipated funding gap [3] - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the potential appreciation of the RMB during the holiday [4] - The 2023 Spring Festival saw a significant increase in residents returning home and delayed work resumption, leading to a tightening of liquidity post-holiday [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key factors affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival holiday are the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 may lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in a lower excess reserve level in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) caused by residents' cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank started to issue 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low certificate of deposit spread and credit spread fully reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds and remaining carry trade space [1][4]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, more attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the appreciation of the RMB. The 9 - day holiday may cause residents to return to work later, and RMB appreciation may consume commercial bank excess reserves [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 The Focus on the Capital Situation around the Spring Festival Holiday - The main factor affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival is the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 will lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in lower excess reserves in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and combined with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank issued 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low spreads reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds [1][4]. - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and RMB appreciation during the holiday [4][15]. 3.2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: The central bank conducted peak - shaving and valley - filling operations. From February 2 to February 6, the net issuance of pledged reverse repurchase was - 756 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term liquidity: The 3M term repurchase was renewed with an excess of 100 billion yuan [16]. 3.2.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situations - Capital supply (lenders): The net lending of large - scale banks reached a record high. Capital demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, and the relative leverage ratio increased [22][34]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: The volume was abundant, and the price was stable. The capital sentiment index showed a gradual easing trend [42][45]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps decreased slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained at a low level [49]. 3.3 Government Bonds 3.3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - The net payment of government bonds next week will increase significantly. The net payment in the past week was 460.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 643.7 billion yuan next week [52]. 3.3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - The report presents the issuance and proportion of government bonds with different maturities in 2024, 2025, and 2026, including treasury bonds and local government bonds [57][58]. 3.4 Certificates of Deposit 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - The report shows the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield curve and their changes compared with the previous week [62]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - As of February 6, the issuance and stock structures of certificates of deposit of different types of banks are presented, including the issuance and stock amounts and proportions of different maturities [66][67]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - The report analyzes the spreads of certificates of deposit, including the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and their quantiles since 2020 [69].

值得一提的是，央行本周开展的逆回购操作中，包括4055亿元7天期逆回购操作和6000亿元14天期逆回 购操作，其中本周四和周五各开展了3000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 数据显示，本周央行公开市场开展了10055亿元逆回购操作，因本周有17615亿元逆回购到期，本周实现 净回笼7560亿元。此外，本周有7000亿元91天期买断式逆回购到期，央行开展了8000亿元91天期买断式 逆回购操作。 数据显示，下周央行公开市场将有4055亿元逆回购到期，其中下周一至下周五分别到期750亿元、1055 亿元、750亿元、1185亿元、315亿元。此外，下周五还将有5000亿元182天期买断式逆回购到期。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 315 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 3000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management in the financial system [1] Group 1 - The PBOC's 7-day reverse repo operation had a bidding amount and winning amount of 315 billion yuan, with an operation rate of 1.40% [1] - The 14-day reverse repo operation was conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels [1] - A total of 4775 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1460 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Throughout the week, the PBOC executed 10055 billion yuan in reverse repo operations [1] - This week saw 17615 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 7560 billion yuan [1]

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2月4日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了750亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率维持 1.4%不变。由于当日有3775亿元7天期逆回购到期，因此对冲后实现净回笼3025亿元。从本周来看，2 月2日及2月3日7天期逆回购也均保持净回笼，净回笼规模分别为755亿元、2965亿元。总体来看，2月2 日至2月4日，中国人民银行7天期逆回购口径累计净回笼6745亿元。 "受1月份大规模加量续做MLF（中期借贷便利），以及当前正处月初，居民春节前取现高峰尚未全面到 来等因素影响，市场流动性稳中向宽，因此月初以来7天期逆回购口径保持资金净回笼。"东方金诚首席 宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示，随着春节临近，居民取现压力增加，预计接下来中国人民银 行7天期逆回购操作会转向资金净投放；此外，央行还有可能在节前一周启用14天期逆回购，以降低春 节前后市场流动性波动幅度。 招联首席经济学家董希淼认为，1月份中国人民银行通过多种政策工具，向市场投放流动性，期限覆盖 从短期到长期。如此大规模流动性投放，降低了短期内尤其是春节前，实施全面降准的紧迫性和可能 性。 "1月份中国人民银行推出一揽子结构性货币政策，意味着短期内货币 ...