12月10日，加拿大央行（BoC）宣布，将隔夜利率目标维持在2.25%，银行利率为2.5%，存款利率为2.20%。 【导读】加拿大央行维持基准利率2.25%不变，符合市场预期 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！全球超级央行周持续进行中，一起来关注海外央行的最新动态。 消息公布后，美元兑加元短线走高。 加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆在预先准备的讲话中表示，理事会成员一致认为，政策利率处于中性区间的下限是合适的，这样既能够对经 济度过结构性转型期提供一定支持，同时也能遏制通胀压力。 麦克勒姆提到三点主要信息：首先，美国对钢铁、铝、汽车和木材的高额关税对这些行业造成了严重打击，而美国贸易政策的不确定性也 在更广泛地影响企业投资。但到目前为止，经济整体表现得很有韧性。 其次，尽管贸易重组带来额外成本，通胀压力依然受控。消费者物价指数（CPI）通胀率已接近2%的目标超过一年，预计将保持在目标附 近。 在10月的最后一次决策中，货币政策制定者曾表示，他们对政策利率的现状感到满意，除非即将到来的经济数据与预测显著偏离。 近期，加拿大公布的11月就业数据成为市场的焦点。数据显示，加拿大当月新增就业岗位约5.3万个，远超市场预期。失 ...

Core Insights - The strength of international equities ETFs is a significant market story for 2025, driven by investor interest in diversifying away from U.S. stocks and A.I.-driven concentration risks [1][2] - The performance of international equities ETFs in 2026 remains uncertain, but factors such as a weakening dollar and favorable foreign market conditions may support continued investor interest [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly seeking foreign diversification to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. stock market, including a shifting yield curve and a declining dollar [2][3] - Many foreign markets have been more effective in managing inflation and are ahead of the U.S. in cutting cycles, making them attractive to U.S. investors [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The international equities space is diverse, with varying outcomes across different markets, suggesting that some markets may underperform while individual firms may thrive [5] - Active international equities ETFs, such as the T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS), leverage fundamental research to identify investment opportunities, potentially outperforming passive ETFs in 2026 [6]

近期，通胀压力一直是全球经济的关注焦点。在此背景下，美联储强调其将继续关注通胀数据以及其对 经济和消费者生活的影响。尽管当前的经济数据提供了混合的信号，但美联储明确表示对抗通胀仍是其 主要任务之一。为此，如有必要，美联储准备采取进一步行动以确保价格稳定。 此次政策决策公布后，市场反应相对平稳。投资者们对美联储的决策有所预期，并理解其在平衡经济增 长和通胀控制方面的挑战。尽管加息可能会对经济产生一定影响，但市场普遍认为这是必要的，以确保 长期的经济稳定和增长。 美联储还表示，其将继续关注全球经济形势以及国内经济的各种因素。同时，美联储也将密切监控消费 者和企业行为的变化，以及其对货币政策的反应。此外，美联储还将评估其政策决策对金融市场和信贷 条件的影响。 总的来说，美联储维持基准利率不变但暗示今年可能再次加息以对抗通胀的决策显示其在应对经济挑战 时的灵活性和决心。尽管这一决策可能对市场产生一定影响，但美联储强调其致力于维护长期的经济稳 定和增长。同时，市场对此决策的反应也相对平稳，显示出对美联储决策的信任和理解。在接下来的时 间里，我们将继续关注美联储的政策决策以及其对全球经济的影响。 【注：本文内容由人工智能 ...

12月3日，根据欧盟统计局周二公布的数据，欧元区11月调和CPI同比初值从上月的2.1%加速至2.2%。 具体数据显示，欧元区11月CPI年率初值录得2.2%，高于10月的2.1%，保持在欧洲央行的中期目标水平 上方，预期为2.1%。剔除波动较大的食品和燃料价格后，核心通胀率持稳于2.4%，主要受服务业价格 持续快速上涨支撑，而耐用品价格涨幅保持温和。最新的通胀数据证实了欧洲央行自身的观点，即通胀 已基本得到控制，决策者现在有充足的时间来观察价格走势，然后再考虑任何进一步的行动。受此影 响，市场几乎完全排除了欧洲央行在今年最后一次会议上降息的可能性，并认为明年采取任何宽松政策 的可能性仅为四分之一。 另外，美国银行周一表示，鉴于疲软的劳动力市场状况以及政策制定者近期暗示可能降息的言论，该券 商现在预计美联储将在12月再降息25个基点，而此前的预期是这家央行本月晚些时候将维持利率不变。 在一份报告中，包括阿迪蒂亚・巴韦（AdityaBhave）在内的分析师列出了推动其更新预测的几大因 素。私营部门招聘疲软、美联储近期发布的劳动力市场状况调查不及预期，此外"美联储主席鲍威尔既 未直接、也未通过媒体反驳市场对12月 ...

根据近期公开表态，负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会成员在是否调整利率的问题上几乎势均力敌。今年拥有投票权的12位官员中，已有5位倾向于在12 月维持利率不变，而其他成员则表现出不同的倾向。例如，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近期释放了支持降息的信号，而美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼等人则在之前的会 议中对维持利率的决定提出异议。 随着12月政策会议临近，美联储内部关于利率政策的讨论愈发激烈，官员们对未来行动的意见呈现明显分化。与此同时，主席鲍威尔保持沉默，令市场对政 策走向的判断更加扑朔迷离。 官员立场分化，政策方向难达共识 这种分歧并非偶然。自今年6月以来，美联储尚未达成过一次全员一致的投票结果。分析认为，这种局面反映了政策制定者在平衡劳动力市场支持与通胀控 制两大目标时的艰难抉择。此外，此前政府停摆导致多项关键经济数据发布延迟，也削弱了官员们依据共同信息基础达成共识的能力。 从历史角度看，美联储内部出现意见分歧并不罕见。在1980年代为遏制高通胀而大幅加息，以及1990年代对通胀持续担忧的时期，委员会内部都曾出现较多 的异议投票。一些经济学家指出，当前的分歧可能具有积极意义。前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆认为，鲍威尔保持沉默 ...

Core Viewpoint - The labor market is cooling, increasing downside risks to employment while inflation risks are easing. The current monetary policy is in a mild tightening state, but the restrictive level is lower than before recent actions [1][4][8]. Group 1: Employment and Inflation Risks - As the labor market cools, the downside risks to employment have increased, while inflation faces reduced upward risks. The core inflation continues to trend downward without evidence of secondary effects from tariffs [7][9]. - The September non-farm payroll data showed mixed results, with an unexpected rise in unemployment, indicating a significant weakening in the job market [7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for further adjustments in the federal funds rate to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, balancing the dual objectives of the Federal Reserve [8][9]. - Following the recent rate cuts, there are noticeable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further cuts in December, complicating the decision-making process [6][8]. Group 3: Inflation Targeting Challenges - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to the long-term target of 2% while avoiding excessive harm to the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will continue to push prices higher next year, but inflation is projected to return to the 2% target by 2027 [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in late October did not weaken the US dollar, which instead reversed its declining trend, with the ICE dollar index reaching a high of 100.25 points, the highest since early August [1][2] - The increase in US Treasury yields across the board, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.1046% and the 30-year yield to 4.6879%, indicates a shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [1][2] - The ongoing US government shutdown has significantly impacted market liquidity, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) surging by 18 basis points, the largest single-day increase since March 2020 [3] Group 2 - The trade "truce" between the US and China is expected to support the dollar by stabilizing trade policies and tariffs for at least a year, which may help control inflation [4] - The economic challenges faced by the Eurozone and Japan, including low growth and internal political issues, limit their currencies' ability to compete with the dollar [5] - The Trump administration's focus on maintaining the dollar's international status includes providing liquidity support to countries like Argentina and encouraging the use of the dollar in Latin America [6][7]

原油日报 | 2025-11-19 美沙会晤后预计欧佩克将维持现有产量计划 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨83美分，收于每桶60.74美元，涨幅为1.39%； 1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨69美分，收于每桶64.89美元，涨幅为1.07%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.74%， 报466元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 美国至11月14日当周API原油库存 444.8万桶，前值130万桶。当周API投产原油量 30.3万桶/日，前值50.2万桶 /日。当周API汽油库存 154.6万桶，前值-138.5万桶。当周API精炼油库存 57.7万桶，前值94.4万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 高盛预计，到2026/27年，TTF天然气价格将为29/20欧元/兆瓦时，JKM天然气价格将为10.50/7.30美元/百万英 热单位，以刺激额外的天然气需求。到2028/2029年，TTF天然气价格将达到每兆瓦时12/12欧元，JKM天然气价格 将达到每百万英热单位4.40/4.45美元，亨利港天然气价格将达到每百万英热单位2.70/2.75美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, predicts a significant rebound in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of next year, driven by several positive factors including the end of government shutdowns, gradual implementation of fiscal support measures, the effects of previous interest rate cuts, and a moderately relaxed regulatory environment [1] Economic Outlook - Musalem emphasizes that the anticipated economic activity boost is expected to accelerate growth [1] - He notes that the current monetary policy is nearing a level where it no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking economic imbalance [3] Inflation Concerns - Musalem reaffirms a strong commitment to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target, highlighting that approximately 40% of current inflation is driven by tariff factors [4] - He points out persistent challenges from rising service prices and increasing financial pressure on middle- and low-income households, evidenced by a rise in reliance on food assistance and utility bill aid [4] Employment Market - Despite a slowdown in labor conditions and a potential temporary rise in unemployment due to government shutdowns, Musalem expects overall employment to remain stable near "full employment" levels [5] - Concerns are raised regarding high asset valuations, with reference to the Federal Reserve's recent Financial Stability Report indicating that U.S. housing prices and financial markets remain elevated compared to historical standards [5] Policy Balance - Musalem's statements highlight the challenge faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing economic growth support with inflation control, suggesting that policymakers will need to carefully assess data to ensure decisions promote recovery while maintaining price stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, suggests that the U.S. economy may be experiencing a demand slowdown, but inflation related to tariffs appears to be under control. She emphasizes the need for an "open mindset" in discussions about potential further interest rate cuts this year [1]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - Daly analyzes the current economic situation, indicating that slowing wage growth points to a "negative demand shock." Despite high price growth, overall inflation levels are manageable, and import tariffs have not broadly increased price levels [1]. - She specifically highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited, primarily affecting goods rather than services, and inflation expectations remain anchored near target levels [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Daly draws important historical comparisons, likening the current situation to the 1970s and 1990s. She warns against repeating the mistakes of the 1970s while also recognizing the potential benefits of the balanced policies of the 1990s, stressing the importance of not stifling economic growth and job creation [3]. - As a future voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Daly's policy views will gain more influence, although she currently does not have voting power [3].