本文来自微信公众号：局外人的视界，作者：卡夫卡不忙了，题图来自：视觉中国 老粉丝都应该知道其中的道理，金价其实对应的是美元的含金量。 铜价暴涨，意料之中。 大家有没有思考过一个问题，为什么钱越印越多，还能印出结构性通缩来呢？ 这波因为地产大跌，大家体感强烈，不知道有没有人还记得10年前，2015年那一波大宗商品的暴跌？ 911之后，大宗商品开启了一波大牛市，原油价格从20多一口气涨到140+，次贷危机爆发后，狠砸了一 波，但随着全球集体启动印钞机，很快又反弹起来了。 2014年，美国终结QE，大宗商品开始走熊，一波暴跌，在此之前，华尔街先把黄金的价格给砸下来 了。 2013年中国大妈跟华尔街黄金大空头的对决还上了全球财经头条，结果是孤立无援的大妈被锤，但拉长 周期看，大妈们真的输了吗？当年大妈们抄底黄金均价1400美元/盎司，暴跌之后，金价也扛住了1000 美元的大关，随后一路涨到了如今的3700美元之上。 无非输了时间罢了。 每一次大宗商品大跌，带头的都是黄金，反之亦然！ 一直到现在，美国内部还有很多人认为911是一场阴谋，在巴以冲突爆发之前，我总以为阴谋论者太夸 张了。最近这几年内塔尼亚胡的种种骚操作让大 ...

关于3500亿美元对美投资，美方要求投资方式、收益分配结构等基本采用与日本相同的模式。根据9月4 日正式签署的美日协议，日本承诺对美投资5500亿美元。但对韩国政府而言，情况却全然不同。韩国一 直在向美国官员强调，他们不能接受与日美敲定的5500亿美元投资承诺相同的条款。考虑到韩国经济规 模等因素，按此执行将面临诸多困难，因此韩国正通过拉锯谈判争取调整为符合韩国实际情况的标准。 目前，韩美双方的贸易谈判陷入僵局。根据特朗普此前说法，韩国输美产品将适用15%关税税率，美国 产品在韩国则不会被征收关税。韩国将向美国投资3500亿美元，同时还将从美国采购价值1000亿美元的 液化天然气或其他能源产品。韩国将对美国全面开放贸易并接受美国汽车和农产品等。 韩国总统李在明强调，韩国与日本的情况有所不同：日本政府的外汇储备规模是韩国的两倍多，达到 4100亿美元，使用的是国际货币日元，并且与美国还有货币互换协议。"如果没有货币互换，而我们按 照美国要求的方式提取3500亿美元，并将这笔资金全部以现金形式投资到美国，那么韩国将面临类似 1997年金融危机的局面。"李在明表示。 距离美国总统特朗普宣布美韩达成贸易协议已过去近两 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the complex political situation faced by South Korean politician Lee Jae-myung, particularly regarding relations with China and the United States [1] - There is a rising anti-China sentiment in South Korea, which Lee Jae-myung attributes to possible orchestrated efforts, emphasizing the importance of maintaining cooperative relations with China for South Korea's economic development [3] - A significant issue is the trade dispute with the U.S., where a verbal agreement was reached for South Korea to invest up to $350 billion, but the U.S. later demanded renegotiation, claiming the terms were too favorable to South Korea [3][4] Group 2 - Disagreements have emerged regarding the execution of the $350 billion investment, particularly in terms of investment methods, areas of focus, and profit distribution [4] - Lee Jae-myung advocates for indirect investment methods through financial institutions, while the U.S. insists on direct cash investments [6] - South Korea aims to invest in its own key industries like shipbuilding and semiconductors, but the U.S. wants to control the investment direction [7] Group 3 - The U.S. proposed a profit-sharing model where it would take 90% of profits after cost recovery, which Lee argues is unsustainable given South Korea's economic context [7] - Lee Jae-myung warns that accepting U.S. conditions could lead to an economic crisis similar to the 1997 financial crisis, highlighting a shift from the previous administration's approach [9] - The ongoing negotiations reflect a broader struggle for South Korea to balance its alliance with the U.S. while protecting its national interests [12]

智通财经APP获悉，由于与美国的一项 3500 亿美元的投资协议预计将在未来几年带来巨大的美元兑换 需求，韩元正面临压力。该货币本应具备在九月表现强劲的所有条件，比如韩国综合股价指数创下历史 新高，外国投资者纷纷涌入，美元因美联储降息而走软——然而韩元却几乎没有变动。花旗和法国兴业 银行的分析师指出，美国协议的不确定性是主要的阻碍因素，除了大致的数字之外，关于该协议的具体 结构知之甚少。 韩国和美国在7月口头达成一项贸易协议，根据该协议，美国将降低对韩国征收的关税，以换取韩国 3500亿美元的对美投资等措施。李在明对此表示，由于在投资处理方式上存在分歧，双方尚未将该协议 付诸书面。 韩美双方在3500亿美元对美投资的具体方案上存在分歧，贸易谈判进入"拉锯战"，正艰难前行。根据特 朗普此前说法，韩国输美产品将适用15%关税税率，美国产品在韩国则不会被征收关税。韩国将向美国 投资3500亿美元，同时还将从美国采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品。韩国将对美国全 面开放贸易并接受美国汽车和农产品等。 李在明在接受媒体采访时表示，如果在停滞的贸易谈判中没有任何保障措施就接受美方的现有要求，那 么韩国将面临 ...

这段采访于上周五（19日）在韩国总统办公室进行。李在明还提及美国近期一次大规模移民执法行动，期间有数百名韩国人被拘留。他表示，"我不认为这 是故意的，美国已经为这一事件道歉，我们同意在这方面寻求合理的措施，我们正在为此努力。" 报道称，李在明本周一将赴纽约在联合国大会发表讲话。总统办公室表示，此次行程没有与特朗普会面的计划，贸易谈判也不在本次访问议程之内。 韩美双方在3500亿美元对美投资的具体方案上存在分歧，贸易谈判进入"拉锯战"，正艰难前行。根据特朗普此前说法，韩国输美产品将适用15%关税税率， 美国产品在韩国则不会被征收关税。韩国将向美国投资3500亿美元，同时还将从美国采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品。韩国将对美国全面 开放贸易并接受美国汽车和农产品等。 李在明本月3日在接受美国《时代》杂志采访时也曾直言，若接受美方条件达成协议，我恐怕会遭弹劾。 【环球网报道 记者 姜蔼玲】据路透社当地时间21日报道，韩国总统李在明在接受该媒体采访时表示，如果在停滞的贸易谈判中没有任何保障措施就接受美 方的现有要求，那么韩国将面临类似1997年金融危机的局面。 "如果没有货币互换，而我们按照美国要求的 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-Korea trade agreement negotiations is the disagreement over investment details, which has led to a stalemate [1][3] - South Korea has committed to invest $350 billion in exchange for reduced tariffs from the US, but the agreement has not been formally signed due to differences in handling the investment [2][3] - South Korea proposed establishing a currency swap mechanism to mitigate the impact of the investment on the Korean won's exchange rate, but the US has not agreed to this proposal [3][4] Group 2 - The South Korean President warned that accepting US investment demands without protective measures could lead to a crisis similar to the 1997 financial crisis [1][4] - The US Commerce Secretary suggested that South Korea should emulate Japan's recent trade agreement with the US, which involved a 15% tariff payment and a $550 billion investment from Japan [4] - The President emphasized that South Korea's situation differs from Japan's due to its lower foreign exchange reserves and the absence of a currency swap agreement with the US [4] Group 3 - Achieving a detailed agreement that ensures commercial viability is the main challenge in the negotiations, with current proposals failing to bridge the gap [5] - The recent immigration enforcement actions against Korean workers in the US have caused public outrage in South Korea, potentially affecting investment sentiment [6][8] - Despite the immigration incident, the President believes it will not damage the US-Korea alliance and considers it an overzealous enforcement action rather than a deliberate act by the US government [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the U.S. economy and its response to three major economic crises: the Internet bubble burst, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Evolution**: The U.S. has implemented various monetary policies across different crises, including interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, to stimulate economic recovery. For instance, during the Internet bubble, the Fed cut rates by 550 basis points over 30 months, while during the financial crisis, rates were brought close to zero and multiple rounds of quantitative easing were initiated [1][11][12]. 2. **Fiscal Policy Measures**: The U.S. government responded to crises with fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and increased public spending, leading to significant increases in government deficit and leverage ratios. For example, the deficit rate reached 14% during the COVID-19 pandemic [1][9][14]. 3. **Asset Price Performance**: Different asset classes reacted variably during the crises. After the Internet bubble burst, stock prices fell significantly, while real estate prices increased. Conversely, during the financial crisis, both stock and real estate markets faced severe declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 49% [2][4][6][10][16]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: The low-interest-rate environment has created investment opportunities primarily in gold, real estate, and specific sectors like energy and materials. Technology stocks, however, require a longer recovery period [3][19]. 5. **Impact of COVID-19**: The pandemic led to a sharp decline in GDP by 7.5% in Q2 2020, with significant unemployment and business disruptions. The Fed responded with aggressive rate cuts and expanded its balance sheet significantly [8][9][10]. 6. **Long-term Trends**: The U.S. stock market has maintained a long bull market due to technological advancements and sustained inflows from long-term funds like pensions and mutual funds. This shift in asset allocation from real estate to financial assets reflects changing risk preferences among investors [19][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Comparison with Japan**: The U.S. bond fund market did not experience the same contraction as Japan's, attributed to the U.S. economy's resilience and quicker recovery from crises [18]. 2. **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The low-interest-rate environment has led to a general increase in asset prices, with housing prices rising over 40% during the pandemic period [9][10]. 3. **Government Debt Levels**: The federal government’s leverage ratio increased significantly during the crises, reaching 141% during the pandemic, indicating a substantial rise in government debt relative to GDP [14][19]. 4. **Sector-Specific Performance**: The technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors have shown particularly strong performance during the recovery phases following the crises [7][10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the U.S. economic landscape's response to significant crises and the resulting investment implications.

Core Viewpoint - France is facing a significant political and financial crisis due to Prime Minister François Bérou's proposed €44 billion austerity plan, which aims to reduce the budget deficit but has met with widespread opposition and market panic [1][2][3]. Financial Situation - The French government plans to reduce the budget deficit from approximately 5.8% in 2024 to 4.6% by 2026, with measures including the cancellation of two national holidays, which has sparked public outrage [2][4]. - France's public debt has exceeded €3.34 trillion, representing 113.9% of GDP, and the country has the third-highest debt level globally, trailing only the US and Japan [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the austerity plan, the Paris CAC 40 index fell by about 1.7%, and the yield on 10-year French government bonds surged above 3.5%, nearing Italian levels [2][3]. - Concerns about the potential collapse of the government have led to fears of increased financing costs, with warnings that France could soon have higher costs than Italy if the situation deteriorates [3][4]. Economic Challenges - The French economy is projected to grow at around 1% this year, significantly below pre-pandemic levels, with consumer spending and investment hampered by limited purchasing power and uncertainty [5][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that France needs "additional significant budget efforts" to avoid losing control over its debt trajectory [5]. Broader Implications - The rising yields on French debt could have repercussions for the global bond market, as France is a key player in the Eurozone, and any instability could affect investor confidence in the euro [6][7]. - The situation raises questions about whether Paris could become the center of the next European financial crisis, especially given the lack of consensus in the political arena [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook by Trump has heightened concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's unexpected action has intensified fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts, pushing investors towards gold [1] - Following the dismissal, the gold price rebounded to a two-week high, supported by a decline in the dollar index [2] - The market now anticipates a greater than 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data is being closely monitored as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][2] - Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank meeting suggest a shift to a straightforward 2% inflation target, which may further support the case for a rate cut [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The trend of central banks purchasing gold, combined with global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, is expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2] - Zang Enterprises highlights that physical precious metals may become the only safe haven amid potential financial crises triggered by inflationary policies and vulnerabilities in the U.S. debt market [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The next resistance level for gold is identified at $3,409, with subsequent levels at $3,439 and $3,451, while the first support level is at $3,268 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial troubles of Wang Wenyin and his company, Zhengwei Group, drawing parallels to the collapse of Evergrande and its founder Xu Jiayin, highlighting the interconnectedness of their financial fates [1][26]. Group 1: Background of Wang Wenyin and Zhengwei Group - Wang Wenyin, born in a poor rural family in Anhui, transformed his life through education and entrepreneurship, eventually founding Zhengwei Group, which achieved over 600 billion in revenue by 2022 [3][11]. - Zhengwei Group became a major player in the copper industry, acquiring significant assets during financial crises, including mines and processing facilities [9][11]. Group 2: Relationship with Xu Jiayin and Evergrande - Wang Wenyin invested nearly 90 billion in Evergrande, motivated by a close personal and business relationship with Xu Jiayin, which led to mutual benefits during Evergrande's growth [15][18]. - The collapse of Evergrande in 2021 severely impacted Zhengwei Group, leading to significant financial losses and a strained cash flow situation [18][20]. Group 3: Current Financial Situation of Zhengwei Group - As of May 2023, Wang Wenyin's total debt exceeded 10 billion, with numerous legal actions and asset freezes complicating the company's financial recovery [21][24]. - Despite the dire situation, Zhengwei Group's diversified operations in various industries may provide some resilience compared to Evergrande's heavy reliance on real estate [24].