Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the finished product, short - term observation is recommended, and try shorting at high prices after a rise [2] - For raw materials, the view is to take a short - term wait - and - see approach or try shorting on rebounds [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Product - In early July, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 4.6% decrease from the same ten - day period last month [2] - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,775 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,950 yuan/ton on July 16, the average profit of steel mills was 175 yuan/ton [2] - The finished product continued to adjust and consolidate yesterday. After continuous rebounds, steel prices slowed down in the past two trading days. The latest real - estate data was weak, and demand restrained prices. There are still important domestic meetings recently, and the rebound driven by sentiment is not over [2] Raw Materials - The view is to take a short - term wait - and - see approach or try shorting on rebounds [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests short - term observation or short - selling on rebounds. It recommends short - term waiting and then trying short positions when prices rise [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Information Production and Sales Data - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [2] - On July 15, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day, and the average profit was a loss of 93 yuan/ton, while the valley - electricity profit was 10 yuan/ton [2] - In June 2025, 137,570 forklifts of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. From January to June 2025, a total of 739,334 forklifts were sold, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] Market Performance and Suggestions - The finished steel market fluctuated yesterday and declined in the afternoon. Steel prices rebounded due to anti - involution, but the recently announced real estate data is still poor, and weak demand remains the main factor dragging down prices. In the short term, demand is unlikely to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short positions on rebounds [2] Factors to Watch - Future factors to watch include macro - policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [2]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures market: This week, the main rebar contract RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,132 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 2.23 million lots, a decrease of 7,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,262 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 1.5971 million lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar shifted upward. As of July 11, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot-rolled coils shifted downward. As of July 11, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures-spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 67 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [10]. - Inter-month spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 28 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 10 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Rebar-hot rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 139 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 121 yuan/ton, a change of +4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 22.94 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week and an increase of 15,200 tons year-on-year [19]. - This week, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.7272 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week. The effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month [19]. 3.2.2 Demand - Last week, the US government imposed a "tariff bomb" on 14 countries. US President Trump posted several letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot-rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off-season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino-US trade friction and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the implementation path of the off-season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.1401 million tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons week-on-week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.2557 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons week-on-week. The total social + steel mill inventory was 13.3958 million tons, a decrease of 350 tons week-on-week. The overall inventory is at a low level compared to the same period, continuing a certain de-stocking trend [33]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel increased slightly to 59.74%. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 3,262 yuan/ton. The steel price trend was relatively strong, and the price increase of rebar in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. Profits have rebounded. The average profit of steel mills was -107 yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit was -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week-on-week [44]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billet increased by 24 yuan/ton to 2,983 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 23 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton [53]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [56]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the fermentation of positive expectations, leading to an upward oscillation of steel prices [2]. - Rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with the fundamentals remaining unchanged. However, due to low inventory, minor real - world contradictions, the fermentation of recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend, with a focus on policy developments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of positive expectations driving the upward oscillation of steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, construction steel mills have shifted production, rebar output has declined again, and supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the demand side, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with weekly performance declining month - on - month, high - frequency trading volume significantly reduced, both at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry shows no improvement, so the weak demand pattern remains unchanged [3]. - Overall, rebar has a situation of weak supply and demand, with unchanged fundamentals. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are low inventory, minor real - world contradictions, the fermentation of recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and cost support from strong raw materials. Steel prices are expected to maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend, and attention should be paid to policy conditions [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [1][4][6] - In the fundamental aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. With multiple factors at play, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating trend. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2992 | 23 | 0.77 | 7142023 | 3003707 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3116 | 34 | 1.10 | 2406634 | 1488632 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 703.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 2099456 | 678221 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 795.0 | 20.5 | 2.65 | 4896063 | 685871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1384.5 | 35.0 | 2.59 | 142071 | 54570 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support, so steel prices mainly fluctuated. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton [4] - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [4] - In the industrial aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [5] Industry News - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [6][7] - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [10] - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and by 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [10] - In May 2025, the automobile output was 2.642 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, the automobile output was 12.757 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [10] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, rebar basis trend, hot - rolled coil basis trend, rebar spot regional price difference trend, hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, long - process steel mill smelting profit, short - process electric furnace profit in East China, national 247 blast furnace operating rate, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. The reference suggestion is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern. The calculation of price changes and criteria for different trends are also explained [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has seasonally weakened. Construction steel mills have increased production, with the weekly output of rebar slightly increasing but still at a relatively low level, and the supply change is not significant. Meanwhile, rebar demand has seasonally weakened, with weekly apparent demand weakly stable and high - frequency transactions being sluggish. The weak demand is pressuring steel prices. In general, rebar supply is rising while demand continues its seasonal weakness, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory and limited real - world contradictions. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory. Building materials' inventory reduction continued to slow down, while plates saw a slight reduction. Among them, the factory and social inventories of rebar and wire rod continued to decline slightly, the factory and social inventories of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil turned to a slight reduction, and the factory and social inventories of medium and heavy plates both increased [7]. - The profit of blast furnace steel mills has recovered, with the operating rate and capacity utilization rate increasing month-on-month, and the daily average molten iron production increasing slightly. The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased due to losses. The output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, with significant increases in the output of rebar and wire rod, and a slight month-on-month increase in the output of hot-rolled coil. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Among them, the decline in the apparent demand of rebar slowed down, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. Currently, the impact of seasonal factors on demand still exists, and there is still marginal weakening pressure on demand [7]. - Recently, geopolitical issues have disrupted the international energy market, boosting coal prices and causing the prices of the black series to stop falling and fluctuate at low levels. In the industry, Tangshan recently received a production restriction notice, which will affect steel supply. However, since steel mills still have overall profits, the production reduction efforts of steel mills are limited, and the reduction in steel output is not obvious. As it enters the consumption off-season, the elasticity of terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is gradually slowing down. Currently, there is no obvious contradiction between steel supply and demand, but consumption is marginally weakening, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate following macro news, but the demand outlook is expected to be weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with different trends for different varieties [7]. - **Supply**: The profit of blast furnace steel mills recovered, and the output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but seasonal factors still affected demand, and there was marginal weakening pressure [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical issues affected the black series prices, and the production restriction notice in Tangshan had limited impact on steel supply reduction. Entering the consumption off-season, the inventory reduction slowed down, and steel prices continued to fluctuate at low levels [7]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure around 3020 for the RB2510 contract and the repair of the basis between futures and spot [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of June 20, 2025, the RB2510 contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the HC2510 contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar basis was 98 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil basis was 84 yuan/ton. The RB10 - 01 contract spread closed at 7 yuan/ton, and the HC10 - 01 contract spread closed at 9 yuan/ton. The Shanghai spot screw - coil spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread was - 124 yuan/ton [16][34]. 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1338.89 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.67 million tons. Among them, the rebar inventory was 551.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.01 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 340.17 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.24 million tons; the wire rod inventory was 94.09 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.64 million tons; the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.81 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.41 million tons; and the medium and heavy plate inventory was 180.75 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63 million tons [9]. 3.4 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.21 percentage points; the profitability rate was 59.31%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 242.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.57 million tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 70.93%, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.19 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 252.27 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.71 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 868.51 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.66 million tons. Among them, the output of rebar and wire rod increased significantly, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased slightly month-on-month [9]. 3.5 Demand - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The apparent demand of rebar decreased at a slower rate, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. The daily average trading volume of traders (MA5) was 9.42 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 million tons; the Shanghai wire rod procurement volume was 16,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons; the apparent demand of rebar was 219.19 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78 million tons; the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil was 330.69 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.81 million tons; the apparent demand of wire rod was 88.7 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.81 million tons; the apparent demand of cold-rolled coil was 89.76 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.53 million tons; the apparent demand of medium and heavy plates was 155.84 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29 million tons [7][9].

钢材周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 南方雨季来临 钢价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：6月9日至10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在 英国伦敦举行。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自 关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日 通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架 达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 6月13日，《广州市提振消费专项行动实 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖，钢价低位回升，相应的螺纹钢供需两端偏弱运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹钢 产量持续下降，供应迎来收缩。同时，淡季螺纹需求表现不佳，高频指标偏弱运行，弱势需求仍将 抑制钢价。目前来看，螺纹现实矛盾不大，悲观预期修复驱动下钢价震荡企稳，但供需双弱局面下 基本面并未好转，淡季上行驱动也不强，后续走势料将延续低位震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].