Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a stable supply and demand situation, with an increase in both domestic and imported zinc concentrate inventories, while consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to seasonal factors [1] Supply Side - Domestic zinc concentrate market remains stable, with the average weekly TC price at 3,800 RMB per metal ton and the imported zinc concentrate index rising to 73.75 USD per dry ton [1] - Port inventories of imported zinc concentrate increased by 107,000 tons to 440,000 tons, indicating a robust supply [1] - Despite the increase in imported TC, domestic smelting profits are high, leading smelters to prefer domestic concentrate, suggesting potential for further TC increases [1] Smelting Sector - In July, domestic smelting plants are undergoing both maintenance and resumption of operations, with refined zinc output expected to increase by approximately 12,000 tons month-on-month [1] - The recent rise in zinc concentrate processing fees has expanded smelter profits, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, smelting activity is likely to increase [1] Consumption Trends - July and August are typically off-peak months for zinc consumption, resulting in reduced terminal orders and lower operational enthusiasm among downstream enterprises [1] - Downstream raw material inventories are at high levels, leading to poor purchasing sentiment, although policies like "old for new" may stimulate consumption [1] - Attention should be paid to consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [1] Inventory Data - As of July 17, SMM zinc ingot inventory stood at 93,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from July 14 and 3,200 tons from July 10 [1] - LME zinc inventory on July 18 was 119,100 tons, up 13,900 tons from July 11 [1] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with indications of short positions exiting the market [1] - Zinc prices may rebound due to macroeconomic and funding conditions, but medium to long-term outlook suggests ample supply from the mining sector and potential for TC increases [1] - Smelters are expected to maintain high operating rates, leading to increased refined zinc supply, while consumption is entering a seasonal decline, potentially resulting in inventory accumulation [1] Trading Strategy - A single-sided trading approach is recommended, with short-term zinc prices expected to be strong, allowing for day trading on long positions [1] - As macro sentiment fades, consider shorting based on inventory accumulation levels [1] - For arbitrage operations, a wait-and-see approach is advised [1]

Core View - China's zinc consumption is growing steadily, supporting the demand fundamentals [3] - Low prices are forcing some zinc enterprises to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [3] - Negative factors: Social inventories are continuously accumulating slightly, indicating oversupply; zinc consumption in Western developed countries has dropped significantly, dragging down global demand [3] - Trading consultation view: It is recommended to monitor changes in social inventories to judge market trends [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Sheet and Coil - Galvanized sheet and coil market sentiment index (weekly) is presented with data from 2023 - 2025 [5] - Galvanized sheet and coil weekly inventory - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] - Steel mill galvanized sheet and coil weekly production - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] Net Exports and Imports - Net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are presented with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9] Real Estate - Cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area from 2015 - 2024 are provided [12][14] - Seasonal data of 100 large - and medium - sized cities' land transaction area and 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [16][17] Infrastructure - Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in transportation, warehousing, postal services, water conservancy, environment, public facilities management, and tertiary industry infrastructure construction from 2020 - 2024 are presented [20] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrate from 2021 - 2025 is provided [22] - Zinc concentrate TC (treatment charge) data from 2022 - 2025 are presented [24] Zinc Production - Monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots from 2021 - 2025 is shown [25] - China's zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonality from 2021 - 2025 is provided [26] Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days from 2021 - 2025 are presented [28] - LME and SHFE zinc inventory data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including total inventory and futures inventory [28][29] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and international zinc price trends from 2023 - 2025 are presented [31] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index from 2022 - 2025 are shown [34] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract from 2023 - 2025 are presented [32] Premiums and Discounts - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 premiums and discounts from 2023 - 2025 are presented [35] - Seasonal data of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premiums and discounts from 2021 - 2025 are provided [36] - Seasonal data of Tianjin zinc ingot basis from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38] - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023 - 2025 are shown [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - The closure of the import window has led to a decrease in overseas inflows, and the downstream's demand for replenishing inventory at low prices has suppressed inventory accumulation, alleviating concerns about oversupply [3]. - Social inventory has not continued to rise, and market sentiment has stabilized, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The downstream's raw material inventory remains at a high level, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate has put pressure on the demand side [3]. - The high - production expectation of smelters continues, and the increase in supply intensifies the oversupply pressure [3]. Trading Advisory Viewpoint The Shanghai zinc market shows a pattern of shock adjustment, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [5][6][9]. - It also includes data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, 30 - major - city commercial housing transaction volume, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [12][14][17][19]. Futures and Spot Market Review - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, LME zinc basis, and the basis of zinc ingots in three regions [23][24][29]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM monthly zinc ingot production, China's monthly zinc ingot production and import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and LME and SHFE zinc inventories [34][37][38].

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of SHFE zinc 2507 closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.14% week-on-week. The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week due to the mixed macro situation and the fundamentals of increasing supply and weakening demand in the off - season, with signs of inventory accumulation and weakening spot premiums [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed officials' differences became public. In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the output from newly - put - into - operation smelters and the resumption of some overhauled smelters are expected to lead to an increase in production in June, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed. The zinc import window closed in June [3]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. The galvanizing开工 decreased, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season. The开工 of die - casting zinc alloys decreased, and the demand weakened with a slower shipment rhythm. The开工 of zinc oxide remained flat with weakening orders, but some zinc oxide enterprises are expected to resume production next week, and the开工 may increase slightly [3]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease. With the Fed's stance, high production enthusiasm of smelters, expected increase in zinc ingot production, weakening demand in the off - season, and signs of inventory accumulation despite the low social inventory of zinc ingots, it is recommended to short SHFE zinc at high prices [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week. The spread between SHFE zinc 07 - 08 contracts weakened week - on - week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation changed little week - on - week. Due to weak downstream demand, the spot premium decreased [8][12][17]. 02 Fundamental Data - This week, the port inventory of zinc concentrates decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, and the raw material inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [20]. - In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the production in June is expected to increase, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed [23][24]. - In May, the net import of refined zinc was 2.53 million tons, with imports of 2.67 million tons and exports of 0.14 million tons [27]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. Traders replenished less inventory, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season [28][31][35]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased this week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease [37][38]. - Last week, the new - home sales in 10 key cities increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, while the second - hand home sales increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [44][45]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual performance of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual performance of the same period last year; from June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 38% year - on - year; and the domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [49][51][54][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc supply continues to increase, and zinc prices remain under pressure. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macroeconomic conditions. It is expected that zinc prices will decline as inventory accumulates [1][4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold profitable short positions and consider adding short positions in distant months when prices rise. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Mine End**: In June, domestic northern mines are expected to complete resumption. Domestic zinc concentrate production continues to release. The import window for zinc concentrates closed in June, but previously locked - in goods still flowed in. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates in June is expected to remain relatively loose, and the processing fees are still on an upward trend [4]. - **Smelting End**: In June, with the supplement of imported ores and the release of domestic mine production, processing fees continued to rise. Smelters had sufficient raw materials and high production enthusiasm. The import window for refined zinc closed in June, but previously locked - in goods still flowed in. It is expected that the supply of domestic refined zinc will increase significantly in June [4]. - **Consumption**: Currently, zinc consumption is in the off - season, but the continuation of the "trade - in" policy in China may still boost consumption to some extent. Attention should be paid to the consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of June 19, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 12 and 1,500 tons from June 16. LME zinc inventory (June 20) was 126,200 tons, a decrease of 4,775 tons from June 13 [4]. - **Price Outlook**: Affected by macro factors, zinc prices may fluctuate. With zinc consumption in the off - season and no improvement in downstream new orders, the downstream procurement intensity is expected to weaken. On the supply side, domestic smelters are actively producing, and with the inflow of imported goods, the supply of refined zinc increased significantly in June. The domestic social inventory has slightly increased this week. It is expected that zinc prices will decline as inventory continues to accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: Hold profitable short positions and consider adding short positions in distant months when prices rise [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific content provided in the text other than the title. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - **Zinc Ore Supply** - **Production**: From January to April, global zinc concentrate production was 3936,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%. Overseas production was 2741,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.23%; China's production was 1,195,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In May 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 325,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. In June 2025, it is expected to be 342,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.42% [24]. - **Import**: In May 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 491,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 2,204,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46%. In June, it is expected that the import volume of zinc ores will still be high [32]. - **Total Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrates was about 5,462,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.74%; from January to May, the cumulative total supply was 23,901,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.99% [35]. - **Processing Fees**: In June, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 3,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,050 yuan/ton compared to December 2024; the monthly processing fee for imported Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 55 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 95 US dollars/dry ton compared to December 2024. On June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 3,600 yuan/ton, and that for imported Zn50 zinc concentrates was 45 US dollars/ton [38]. - **Global Refined Zinc Production** - In 2024, the annual refined zinc production was 13,620,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the annual demand was 13,647,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.32%. The annual refined zinc shortage was 27,600 tons. From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production was 4,425,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 105,500 tons or 2.33%. The consumption was 4,274,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 63,900 tons or 1.47%. The cumulative surplus was 151,100 tons, and the surplus was gradually expanding [42]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply** - **Production**: In May, the domestic smelter operating rate was 90.62%. In May, domestic refined zinc production was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. It is expected that the production in June will increase by 7.43% month - on - month to 590,200 tons [45][46]. - **Import**: In May 2025, the import of refined zinc was 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36%, and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.66%. In June, it is expected that the domestic supply of refined zinc will increase significantly [48]. - **Consumption - Related Data** - No detailed consumption data is provided in the text, but it mentions that attention should be paid to the consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors, and the "trade - in" policy may boost consumption [4].

锌产业周报 2025/06/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

有色金属周报(锌) 基本面支撑有限，维持空配 2025年6月9日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：特朗普关税政策再度生变，市场对金属关税政策担 | | | | | 忧上升，避险情绪再度增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。受进口锌矿持续到货补充，国内 | | | | | 炼厂加工费持续上调，其中内蒙古、东北、广西等地区受 | | | | | 进口矿/炼厂检修因素影响，加工费涨幅较为明显；但随 | 随着进口锌矿不断到港，国内矿 | | | | 着港口锌矿库存明显下滑，部分新增炼厂产能开始产出， | 山亦稳步复产，炼厂原料库存增 | | | | 对锌矿需求旺盛，后续TC回升速度将放缓。 | 至27.72万吨，加工费持续上行带 | | |  | 成本利润：锌价回落后区间盘整，矿端对TC继续上调意 | 动炼厂利润不断好转，供给端增 | | | | 愿不高，预计6月调涨空间相对有限，国产TC或环比上调 | 量预期较强 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+355；偏多。 3、库存：6月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1000吨至138150吨，5月30日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1675吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures are expected to consolidate in the short - term, with the contract ZN2507 showing a sideways movement [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, presenting a bullish signal [2]. - The basis of spot zinc was +445 (spot price 22,630), indicating a bullish situation [2]. - On May 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 tons to 153,500 tons. On May 26, SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 1,774 tons, showing a neutral stance [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a sideways movement, closing below the 20 - day moving average which was trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players was short, with short positions decreasing, also indicating a bearish outlook [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On May 26, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 220,925 lots, with a total turnover of 24.5308783 billion yuan. The open interest was 228,230 lots, an increase of 980 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On May 26, in the domestic main spot markets, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Shanghai was 22,630 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3,979 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4,373 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,120 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,490 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,831 yuan/ton, up 231 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From April 30 to May 26, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets decreased from 632,000 tons to 685,000 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 31,000 tons, and compared with the previous Monday, it decreased by 72,000 tons [5]. - On May 26, the total SHFE zinc warrants were 1,774 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On May 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 tons to 153,500 tons, with registered warrants of 80,175 tons and cancelled warrants of 73,325 tons, accounting for 47.77% [8]. Production Statistics - In April 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%. The planned production for May was 444,100 tons [15]. Processing Fee Quotes - On May 26, zinc concentrate processing fees in various regions remained stable, with the average price in different regions ranging from 3,300 to 3,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 40 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - On May 26, for the zinc futures contract zn2507, the top three futures companies in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (46,687 lots, an increase of 11,174 lots), Guotai Junan (37,673 lots, an increase of 4,115 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (28,757 lots, an increase of 3,608 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (12,541 lots, an increase of 624 lots), Guotai Junan (8,651 lots, an increase of 27 lots), and Jianxin Futures (5,522 lots, a decrease of 28 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were Guotai Junan (9,705 lots, an increase of 710 lots), Yong'an Futures (9,098 lots, a decrease of 230 lots), and CITIC Futures (8,925 lots, an increase of 21 lots) [18].