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新能源及有色金属日报:锌矿TC继续走低-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]
供求总体差异不明显 沪锌价格上下有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-07 08:12
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a decline in domestic inventory levels, while the supply-demand dynamics indicate a potential for price fluctuations within a defined range due to varying conditions in domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Trends - As of November 6, the total zinc ingot inventory across seven locations in China is 158,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from October 30 and 3,000 tons from November 3, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory [1]. - On October 31, the Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 103,416 tons, down by 5,752 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - On November 7, the spot price for Shanghai 0 zinc ingots was quoted at 22,640 yuan/ton, which is at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the futures main price of 22,720 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, the processing fees for zinc concentrate remain acceptable, and smelting profits have turned positive, suggesting a potential increase in smelting output [2]. - The China Iron and Steel Association reported a weekly increase in galvanized sheet inventory, while infrastructure investment growth is slowing, and the automotive sector shows positive growth [2]. - Guizhou Futures noted a decline in domestic zinc ore processing fees, while import processing fees remain stable, indicating a demand for winter storage of raw materials [2]. - The overall supply-demand situation for zinc is not significantly different, leading to expectations of range-bound price movements, with a suggested trading range of 22,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [2].
锌:出口窗口打开,LME库存小幅累库
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 08:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]
低库存为价格提供支撑 沪锌在2.15万元/吨存强支撑
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-26 23:38
Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in futures prices, driven by export opportunities and inventory dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai zinc futures closed at 22,355 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.03% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 21,885 CNY/ton and 22,375 CNY/ton, with a total increase in open interest of 42,945 contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported an increase in global zinc supply surplus to 47,900 tons in August 2025, up from 38,700 tons in July [2] - Domestic smelting supply remains stable while overseas production is decreasing, leading to a widening price gap [3] Inventory and Export Insights - As of October 23, 2025, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants of 24,850 tons and a reduction in inventory by 600 tons to 34,700 tons [2] - Export profits for zinc ingots to Southeast Asia exceeded 1,900 CNY/ton, indicating strong demand in that region [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that low LME zinc inventory and tight overseas spot markets support high volatility in zinc prices, with a short-term resistance level at 23,000 CNY/ton [3] - Nanhua Futures highlighted a weak domestic market relative to overseas, with a focus on the potential for export opportunities and macroeconomic drivers [3]
沪锌库存继续累积 再刷逾一年新高
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 09:00
Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in zinc inventory, reaching 41,950 tons, marking a new low in over two years [1] - In contrast, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a slight accumulation of zinc inventory, increasing by 1.24% to 100,544 tons, which is the highest level in over a year [1] Inventory Comparison - As of September 29, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, down from 42,775 tons on September 26, 2025 [5] - SHFE zinc inventory on September 26, 2025, was 100,544 tons, reflecting a continuous increase over fourteen weeks [1][5] - The trend indicates that declining inventories on domestic and international exchanges generally support price increases, while rising inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3]
沪锌期货早报-20250925
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:43
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate weakly. The conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors, including the fundamental supply - demand situation, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions of major players [2][20]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1515 million tons and consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons and consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price of zinc was 21,860 yuan, and the basis was +0, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 tons to 44,400 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 744 tons to 57,357 tons [2][6]. 4. Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downward, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 5. Major Player Positions - The major players held a net long position, but the long positions decreased, showing a bullish tendency [2]. 6. Futures Market Quotes on September 24 - For the zinc futures contract, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, the 2510 contract had a previous settlement price of 21,945 yuan, a closing price of 21,845 yuan, and a decrease of 100 yuan. The trading volume was 38,405 lots, and the trading value was 420.67467 million yuan [3]. 7. Domestic Spot Market Quotes on September 24 - The prices of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed different degrees of decline [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major Domestic Markets - From September 11 to September 22, the total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets changed. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 9. Zinc Warrant Report on September 24 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 57,357 tons, an increase of 744 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 500 tons in Guangdong and an increase of 394 tons in Tianjin [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on September 24 - The total LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 30,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,675 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 30.80% [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Prices in Major Domestic Cities on September 24 - Zinc concentrate prices in major domestic cities showed a downward trend, with most prices dropping by 20 - 50 yuan per ton [9]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on September 24 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 60 yuan per ton [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The production of refined zinc in June 2025 was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on September 23 - Zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the average processing fee was 3,800 - 4,100 yuan per metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 100 US dollars per dry ton [17]. 15. Ranking of Zinc Trading and Positions of SHFE Members on September 24 - For the zn2511 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and COFCO Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18]. 16. Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, and short - term indicators showed a weak trend. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate weakly [20].
沪伦两市锌库存表现分化 沪锌库存增至逾一年新高
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 03:34
Group 1 - LME zinc inventory has decreased, reaching 46,825 tons, marking a new low in over two years [1] - SHFE zinc inventory has increased for thirteen consecutive weeks, rising by 4.93% to 99,315 tons, the highest level in over a year [1] - Generally, declining inventories in both domestic and international exchanges support price trends, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and SHFE zinc inventories since September 2025 shows significant trends in inventory levels [4]
锌期货日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:15
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market Performance: Shanghai zinc futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. ZN2510 closed at 22,280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was - 5. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, with some local quotes slightly falling. SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices dropped due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profit, it remained at a relatively high level. September saw more smelter overhauls and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material price hikes and tight supply, with expected monthly output down 1 - 2 tons to around 600,000 tons. Supply remained generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, leading to a month - on - month increase in the primary consumption sector's开工. However, the improvement in consumption was slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace. There was a divergence between the strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with concerns about overseas refined zinc supply causing a spot premium (0 - 3B41.33). Given the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and no sign of a de - stocking inflection point, the market maintained a range - bound pattern. The market generally expected a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to be announced early Thursday, and attention was on Powell's speech for guidance on the path of interest rate cuts for the year [7] Group 3: Industry News - Zinc Price and Transaction Information: On September 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,175 - 22,280 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand was 22,285 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,105 - 22,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v at a 20 - yuan/ton discount, Huize at a 50 - 60 - yuan/ton premium, and high - end brand Double - swallow at a 90 - 100 - yuan/ton premium. In different regions, the prices and quotes relative to the contracts varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,175 - 22,260 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2510 contract; in Tianjin, 0 zinc was at 22,110 - 22,270 yuan/ton, with various discounts to the 2510 contract; in Guangdong, 0 zinc was at 22,090 - 22,230 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2511 contract and a discount to Shanghai spot prices, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price spread widened [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department provided data on the two - market zinc price trends, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [7][10][11]
大越期货投资咨询部祝森林
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global zinc plate had a supply surplus of 22,700 tons in April 2025, but a supply shortage of 56,500 tons from January to April. The overall fundamentals are considered positive. The basis is neutral, inventory trends are positive, the disk shows a negative trend, the main position is net long with a reduction in long positions, and the expected trend of SHFE zinc ZN2510 is to oscillate weakly [2]. - On September 5, the trading volume of zinc futures decreased, and both long and short positions reduced their holdings. The market may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term. Technically, the price is below the moving average system, the short - term indicator KDJ is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, the strength of the long side is increasing, the strength of the short side is decreasing, and the dominance of the short side is narrowing. The recommended operation for SHFE zinc ZN2510 is to expect an oscillatory consolidation [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market Data - **September 5, 2025, Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes**: The total trading volume was 170,162 lots, with a total trading value of 1,881,733.09 million yuan. The open interest was 226,104 lots, a decrease of 6,320 lots [3]. - **September 5, 2025, Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes**: The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,690 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Kuaisan increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,060 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 4,036 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 4,451 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo increased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha increased by 60 yuan/ton to 27,220 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou remained unchanged at 20,500 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou remained unchanged at 7,857 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Inventory Data - **National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 25 - September 4, 2025)**: The total inventory increased from 124,800 tons on August 25 to 138,500 tons on September 4, an increase of 8,700 tons compared to August 28 and 5,100 tons compared to September 1 [5]. - **September 5, 2025, Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report**: The total warehouse receipts were 40,772 tons, a decrease of 124 tons. Among them, Shanghai had 50 tons (unchanged), Guangdong had 20,073 tons (a decrease of 49 tons), Jiangsu had 0 tons (unchanged), and Tianjin had 20,649 tons (a decrease of 75 tons) [6]. - **September 5, 2025, LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics**: The total inventory was 54,050 tons, a decrease of 700 tons [7]. 3.3 Price Data - **September 5, 2025, National Main Cities Zinc Concentrate Price Summary**: The price of zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price in Jiyuan, Kunming, and other places was 16,790 yuan/ton, and the price in Chenzhou and Chifeng was 16,690 yuan/ton [8]. - **September 5, 2025, National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes**: The price of 0 zinc ingots from various manufacturers increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price of Hunan Weichuan Zhidong was 22,290 yuan/ton, and the price of Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,620 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Production Data - **June 2025, Domestic Refined Zinc Production**: The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.5 Processing Fee Data - **September 5, 2025, Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes**: The processing fees for zinc concentrate in different regions varied. For 50% grade zinc concentrate, the lowest was 3,400 yuan/metal ton in Gaozhou, and the highest was 4,200 yuan/metal ton in Linzhou. The import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 80 - 100 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.6 Futures Company Position Data - **September 5, 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading Volume and Position Ranking Table (Contract Code: zn2510)**: The total trading volume of futures companies was 171,841 lots, a decrease of 97,157 lots; the total long position was 72,425 lots, a decrease of 5,040 lots; the total short position was 75,290 lots, a decrease of 4,963 lots [17].
建信期货锌期货日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:35
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Shanghai zinc led the decline in non - ferrous metals. The main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%. It showed increased volume and open interest, with open interest increasing by 14,140 lots to 118,873 lots. The net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in total open interest increased by 6,418 lots. The fundamentals changed little, with zinc ore processing fees rising continuously and zinc ingot production remaining at a high level. The demand side was supported by policies but was weak in the short term. Production restrictions in North China suppressed galvanized consumption. The pressure of supply - demand surplus was reflected in inventory. Social inventory increased by 0.26 million tons to 14.89 million tons on Thursday. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, the lowest level since May 2023, with a 0 - 3 spread of B18.78. Despite the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and continuous de - stocking at LME, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc could not resonate. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term and may test the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,100 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 21,970 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan or 0.79%, with an open interest of 8,355 lots, down 1,255 lots; for SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,240 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%, with an open interest of 118,873 lots, up 14,140 lots; for SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,280 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,330 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,010 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest of 70,099 lots, up 3,819 lots [7] 2. Industry News - On September 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was 22,120 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 21,910 - 22,110 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par to the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was about 21,980 - 22,170 yuan/ton. Regular brands were quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery, Hualian/Jiulong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton for delivery, and Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 21,930 - 22,170 yuan/ton, that of Zijin was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,880 - 22,090 yuan/ton. Huludao was quoted at 22,570 yuan/ton. Ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Zijin was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Tianjin market was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton to Shanghai market [8] - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,910 - 22,155 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at par to Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the first period, holders quoted a discount of 90 - 45 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, Feilong, and Lanxing; in the second period, the discount was 90 - 55 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in million tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][11][12]