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锌:供增需弱预期强,期价或震荡偏弱
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 13:47
Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have been fluctuating within a range following a significant drop due to tariff announcements, with domestic zinc prices hovering between 21,900-22,800 CNY/ton and LME zinc prices around 2,700 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments rather than strong fundamental pressures [2][8]. Macroeconomic Factors - The US-China trade talks made significant progress in mid-May, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days. However, the US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, causing short-term volatility in financial markets [3]. - The bond market is showing signs of panic, with Japan's 20-year bond auction underperforming and Moody's downgrading the US credit rating, leading to a decline in the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks simultaneously [3]. - China's social financing and M2 growth rates are stable, but new RMB loan data is disappointing, indicating a potential slowdown in key economic indicators [3]. Supply Side Dynamics - Global zinc mine production reached 1.0184 million tons in March, a month-on-month increase of 10.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative production from January to March was 2.902 million tons, up 3.75% year-on-year [4]. - China's zinc concentrate production in April was 297,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Zinc ore imports surged to 494,700 tons in April, a 37.6% month-on-month increase and a 72.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing a rise in processing fees due to ample supply from both imported and domestic sources, with processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate averaging 3,650 CNY/ton in June [4]. Production Stability - Global refined zinc production in March was 1.1219 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. China's refined zinc production in April was 576,000 tons, a slight decrease from March but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [5]. - The profitability of smelters has improved, with production losses remaining below 500 CNY/ton, leading to expectations of increased production in the near future [5]. Inventory Levels - Domestic refined zinc inventories are gradually declining, with SMM's seven-city zinc ingot inventory at 80,400 tons as of May 22, which is low compared to previous years [6]. - LME zinc inventories have also seen a slight increase but remain at a low level, which may provide some support for zinc prices [6]. Demand Trends - Demand is showing signs of weakening as the peak season ends, with the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises recovering to around 62%, while die-casting zinc alloy enterprises have seen a drop to 56.41% [7]. - The construction sector remains stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in new housing starts and steady growth in infrastructure investment [7]. - However, production in the white goods sector has seen limited growth, with significant declines in refrigerator and television production [7]. Summary - Overall, the impact of tariffs is diminishing, and a weaker dollar is providing some support for non-ferrous metals. Despite low inventories providing price support, the expectation of increased supply against weak demand suggests that zinc prices may struggle to rise significantly in the short term, likely remaining in a weak oscillation [8][9].
新能源及有色金属日报:现货市场升水走弱-20250522
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 03:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot market premium in most regions is weakening, and downstream demand remains cautious due to high prices. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. There is still profit in smelting, and supply pressure persists. Consumption in May may face challenges, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$29.83/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,700 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 25 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,530 yuan/ton and closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,502 lots, an increase of 3,796 lots, and the position was 67,175 lots, a decrease of 9,455 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,510 - 22,675 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 21, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - In the spot market, inventories in Guangdong are continuously declining, while premiums in other regions are weakening. After the rebound of absolute prices, downstream buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and make inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand. Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. Although the increase in TC is limited, smelting still has profits, and the supply pressure persists. Domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and domestic ore TC is still rising. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a sequential decline in consumption after May [3].