Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the importance of risk prevention and control in the financial sector, focusing on both existing and new risks while supporting the stability of the real estate market [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The meeting calls for effective and orderly prevention and resolution of key area risks [1] - There is a strong commitment to prioritize risk prevention, focusing on resolving existing risks and firmly curbing new risks [1] - The goal is to maintain a "no explosion" bottom line regarding financial risks [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Reform - The meeting aims to consolidate and expand the achievements of reform and risk mitigation [1] - There is an emphasis on promoting the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market Support - The meeting supports stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing the role of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms [1] - There is guidance for banking and insurance institutions to actively resolve financial debt risks associated with local government financing platforms based on market-oriented and legal principles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the National Financial Supervision Administration emphasizes the importance of supporting the achievement of the 2026 economic and social development goals, while effectively managing financial risks and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The meeting aims to provide strong financial support for the successful initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - There is a focus on ensuring orderly prevention and resolution of risks in key areas [1] Group 2: Risk Management - The administration is committed to prioritizing risk prevention, addressing existing risks, and preventing new risks from emerging [1] - A strict adherence to the principle of not allowing any major financial failures is emphasized [1] Group 3: Support for Real Estate Market - The meeting highlights the need to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the role of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms [1] - There is a call to assist in constructing a new model for real estate development [1] Group 4: Financial Institutions - Guidance is provided for banking and insurance institutions to actively resolve financial debt risks associated with local government financing platforms, following market-oriented and legal principles [1]

宏 观 研 究 —— 12 月中央经济工作会议学习理解 事件：新华社北京 12 月 11 日电，中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。 会议在基调上有何亮点？针对新形势提出五个"必须"、强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"等 2025 年中央经济工作会议针对新形势提出五个"必须"，与 2024 年五个"统筹"形成逻辑呼应，延续并 深化了经济工作的规律性认识。五个"必须"具体为：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革 创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内 功应对外部挑战。与 2024 年会议提出的五个"统筹"为对比， 2025 年会议更突出经济潜能挖掘与政策、 改革的协同发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发展形势。 会议分析经济形势时指出，我国"老问题、新挑战仍然不少"，并突出强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"， 精准聚焦当前核心痛点。2024 年会议中提出的问题更侧重需求侧，即"国内需求不足，部分企业生产经营 困难，群众就业增收面临压力"。2025 年会议则直指当前供给相对偏强而需求不足的现状，既契合 PPI、 CPI 持续疲 ...

中国银河（601881）宏观认为，从总的政策基调来看，本次政治局会议强调要坚持"稳中求进、提质增 效"，明年是"十五五"规划开局之年，聚焦国内"提质增效"，有利于赢得"十五五"规划良好开局。当前 百年变局加速演进，面对外部不确定性，宏观政策要以"我"为主，把握好"逆周期""跨周期"力度，推动 经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，以确定性应对不确定性。 【导读】明年经济工作坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调，为"十五五"规划开局注入强劲动力 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议强调明年经济工作坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调，兼顾了短期稳增长与中长期 高质量发展。同时，宏观政策、扩大内需、创新驱动等多方面协同发力，将为"十五五"规划开局筑牢根 基，更好推动我国经济高质量发展。 亮点1：紧扣"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调 为"十五五"规划开局夯实基础 会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续 扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务首位。 上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚表示，此次宏观 ...

据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经 济形势作出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新 步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升 宏观经济治理效能。 会议还对下半年持续扩大内需、因地制宜发展新质生产力、纵深推进全 国统一大市场建设、持续防范化解重点领域风险等方面的重点工作作出部署。 信号一： 实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策 增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经 贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同 性。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉记者，本次会议继续强调"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"， 主要是基于当前宏观经济面临需求不足，尤其是消费不足、投资效益有待进一步提高、房地产 止跌回稳还要加码的形势。2025 年前三季度 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 12 月政治局会议解读 提质增效，内需主导 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 会议： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 ...

其中提到，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，优化保障性住房供给，实现更高水平 住有所居。因城施策增加改善性住房供给，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动，支持老旧 住房自主更新、原拆原建，系统推进适应人民群众新期待的好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设。建 立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度。 提高防范化解重点领域风险能力，统筹推进房地产、地方政府债务、中小金融机构等风险有序化解，严 防系统性风险。 提高防范化解重点领域风险能力，统筹推进房地产、地方政府债务、中小金融机构等风险有序化解，严 防系统性风险。 12月8日，厦门发布《中共厦门市委关于制定厦门市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, while enhancing coordination with other policies to support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The fiscal policy since 2025 has been more proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - Fiscal revenue has been recovering, with tax revenue gradually increasing, and necessary expenditures being maintained [1] - The strategy of expanding domestic demand is emphasized, promoting a positive interaction between consumption and investment [1] Group 2: Key Areas of Focus for Future Fiscal Policy - The report outlines six key areas for future fiscal policy, including effectively utilizing proactive fiscal measures and ensuring the safety and efficiency of fund usage [2] - Support for employment and foreign trade is prioritized, with measures to stabilize job positions and assist businesses in maintaining operations [2] - There is a focus on fostering new growth drivers through innovation and supporting the digital transformation of small and medium enterprises [3] Group 3: Social Welfare and Risk Management - The report highlights the importance of improving social welfare, particularly for the elderly and children, through various subsidies and educational initiatives [3] - Continuous efforts are being made to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including strict management of local government debt and monitoring of fiscal operations [3] - Enhancements in fiscal governance effectiveness are emphasized, with a focus on fiscal resource management and compliance with fiscal regulations [4]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance will focus on six key areas to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving people's livelihoods, preventing risks in key sectors, and enhancing fiscal governance effectiveness [1][2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of budget execution responsibility and aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage while ensuring fund security [1] - Specific measures include implementing consumption stimulus actions, providing fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, and encouraging private investment through local government bonds and special treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights the need to strengthen employment support policies, including public employment services, vocational training, and stabilizing job positions for key groups [1][2] - It aims to enhance international economic cooperation by signing more free trade agreements and supporting enterprises in stabilizing orders and expanding markets [1][2] - The focus on nurturing new growth drivers includes promoting technological innovation, supporting the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and creating a favorable environment for business development [2] Group 3 - The report outlines measures to improve social welfare, such as providing subsidies for elderly care services and implementing free preschool education [2] - It emphasizes the importance of coordinating major livelihood policies across departments to expand social security coverage and support low-income groups [2] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a comprehensive debt management policy to address hidden debts and ensure stable fiscal operations [3] Group 4 - The report stresses the need for enhanced fiscal governance, including the implementation of various fiscal and tax reforms to improve resource allocation and budget management [3] - It calls for increased financial supervision and accountability at local and departmental levels to ensure effective use of fiscal funds [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to align its fiscal policies with the goal of building a modern socialist country, focusing on high-quality fiscal planning and macroeconomic regulation [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy is showing steady progress, with overall fiscal operations remaining stable in the first half of 2025 [1] Fiscal Performance - National general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - National general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.4% [1] Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key areas for future fiscal policy focus, including the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, support for employment and foreign trade stability, and fostering new growth drivers [2][3] Employment and Trade Support - Emphasis on enhancing employment policies, providing public employment services, vocational training, and supporting enterprises in stabilizing orders and expanding markets [2] Development of New Growth Drivers - Focus on strengthening industrial innovation and technology supply, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, and supporting the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Social Welfare Improvements - Initiatives to enhance services for the elderly and children, including subsidies for elderly care services and the implementation of free preschool education [3] Risk Management - Continued efforts to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including the management of hidden debts and ensuring stable fiscal operations at the grassroots level [4] Governance Enhancement - Strengthening fiscal management and oversight, advancing fiscal reforms, and ensuring that fiscal resources are effectively utilized for development and public welfare [4]