Core Insights - The U.S. stock market outperformed European stocks this week, supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - Factors contributing to the U.S. market's performance include easing Middle East tensions, reduced tariff pressures, and increased focus on technology stocks [1] - The upcoming release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key focus, with expectations that unless there is a significant upside surprise, the momentum may drive the S&P 500 index to new highs [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the ceasefire between Israel and Iran taking effect and Powell's remarks relaxing the dovish stance, the gold price dropped significantly and then rebounded slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3 yuan/gram. Although the risk - aversion sentiment cooled down, the easing expectation increased, and there is still downward pressure on the gold price [4]. - Silver: After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and Powell's remarks, the risk preference recovered. The silver price dropped significantly and then rebounded, showing slightly stronger performance than gold. As the situation in the Middle East eases, the silver price will give back its gains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect, and Powell reiterated a wait - and - see attitude while being non - committal about the prospect of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the gold price. The three major US stock indexes rose by more than 1%, and the three major European stock indexes closed higher across the board. The US dollar index fell 0.42% to 97.97, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1644. US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield dropping nearly 5 basis points to 4.297%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.66% to $3338.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the ceasefire and Powell's remarks, COMEX silver futures fell 0.88% to $35.87 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 0.79, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 18,213 kilograms, an increase of 45 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 1,256,831 kilograms, an increase of 9,728 kilograms compared to the previous day, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's central bank will release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the June monetary policy meeting - 08:15 Kansas City Fed President Schmid will discuss the economic outlook at the "2025 Agricultural Summit" - 09:00 Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura will speak in Fukushima - Time TBD The Summer Davos Forum will be held until June 26 - 09:30 Australia's May CPI data will be released - 16:45 Bank of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli will speak - 17:00 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak - 22:00 Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee, and the US May new home sales data will be released - Next day 01:30 ECB Banking Supervision Committee member Donnelly will speak - 02:00 The Fed will hold a meeting to discuss adjusting the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall back. The verification between the policy expectations and the reality of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.25% to 201,137, the short positions decreased by 4.06% to 67,417, and the net position decreased by 1.31% to 133,720 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [28]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.11% to 409,978, the short positions decreased by 1.57% to 306,572, and the net position increased by 5.45% to 103,406 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [30]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased in a volatile manner but was higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [37][38][40].

Group 1 - Discussion on potential clues regarding interest rate cuts within the year [1] - Examination of the impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S. inflation, employment, and supply chains [2] - Insights on the international situation, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran [3] Group 2 - Analysis of discussions surrounding U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Evaluation of Trump's actions against "illegal" immigration and its effects on the job market [5] - Consideration of Trump's deregulatory agenda, stablecoin legislation, and volatility in financial markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unresolved in the short term, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have rebounded significantly [1][8]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and then rebounded to a high of $3446.53, closing at $3433.74, marking a weekly increase of $121.97 or 3.68% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $152.84, indicating strong volatility in the gold market [1]. Influencing Factors - The decline in the US dollar index provided support for gold prices, driven by technical buying and increasing geopolitical tensions, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][7]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was lower than expected, enhancing the prospects for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite recent volatility, gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend since last year [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold prices have been consistently moving higher, with the potential to reach $3500 or $3545 in the near future [11][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, along with concerns over tariffs and economic conditions, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The market anticipates continued upward movement in gold prices, supported by both technical indicators and fundamental factors [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking through $3,280 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.6% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Gold Futures main contract rose by more than 1.8% [3]. - Gold mining stocks in the U.S. saw significant gains, including Harmony Gold, Gold Resources, and Kinross Gold [5]. - COMEX silver also experienced an increase, with a daily rise of 1.4% [7]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumption of gold and silver jewelry remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.7% in April [9]. - The average closing price for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 765.77 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [9]. Group 3: Price Fluctuations - Since May 19, spot gold has seen an upward trend after a significant drop earlier in the month, where it fell approximately $72 per ounce in a single day [10]. - Recent geopolitical and economic developments, including a joint statement from U.S. and Chinese trade officials, have influenced market risk appetite, putting pressure on gold prices [13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as declining U.S. dollar credibility, the onset of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued central bank purchases of gold [14].

Report on the Precious Metals Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term remains in a high - level oscillation. The resistance levels for London gold are 3300, with strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area; support levels are 3200, 3100, and strong support in the 2950 - 3000 area. For London silver, support is in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance is at 33.3 and 33.7, and if it breaks through, it could reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but the market may remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals generally saw gold decline and silver oscillate. London gold dropped to around 3120, the lowest since April 10. The Sino - US joint communique on May 12 after the Geneva economic and trade high - level talks boosted market risk appetite, pressuring gold. Since late April, global gold ETFs have shown signs of outflow due to factors such as trade and geopolitical conflicts and the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell's statement on re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework and the "new Fed newswire" hinting at an interest - rate framework adjustment may lead to higher long - term interest rates. The slightly lower - than - expected US CPI on Tuesday alleviated inflation concerns and slightly improved the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday, which may increase the volatility of the US stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets on Monday and be beneficial for gold. China reduced its US debt holdings by 18.9 billion US dollars to 765.4 billion US dollars in March, becoming the third - largest US debt holder [2] 3.2 Capital and Inventory - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 19.21 tons to 918.73 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 106.06 tons to 13914.9 tons [3] - **Short - term Fund Holdings**: According to the CFTC report as of May 13, the non - commercial net long positions of gold decreased by 1288 to 161209, with long positions increasing by 746 and short positions increasing by 2034. The non - commercial net long positions of silver decreased by 1498 to 47754, with long positions decreasing by 2391 and short positions decreasing by 893 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7.26 tons to 1210.6 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 44.1 tons to 15619 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 47.44 tons to 887 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 5.24 tons to 1574.3 tons [3] 3.3 Upcoming Events - This week's economic data is relatively light, with attention on the US S&P PMI data. There are multiple speeches by Fed officials, including Jefferson, Williams, Musalem, Bostic, Harker, and Daly. The G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting from May 12 - 22 should also be monitored [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract rose 1.62% to 751.8 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD rose 1.58% to 746.98 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract fell 1.19% to 3205.3 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver main contract rose 1.16% to 8101 yuan/kilogram, SGX silver TD rose 1.19% to 8062 yuan/kilogram, CME silver main contract fell 1.1% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce [5] - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, CME gold inventory was 1210.5758 tons, SHFE gold position was 211481 lots. SHFE silver inventory was 887.018 tons, CME silver inventory was 15619.051 tons, SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, SHFE silver position was 325306 lots [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Data**: The US dollar index rose 0.19% to 100.983, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 42654.74 points, WTI crude - oil spot rose 1.41% to 62.49 US dollars/barrel, LmeS copper 03 fell 1.67% to 9440 US dollars/ton, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.45% to 4.43%, and the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread fell 8.16% to 0.45% [19]