Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.25, while spot silver opened at $38.56/oz and is currently around $38.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9338 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9366 yuan/kg [1] - On August 25, the dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 98.43, while spot silver fell by 0.69% to $38.55/oz. This decline in silver is attributed to a decrease in optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [1] Economic Data - The latest data shows that SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,288.82 tons [2] - Economic indicators released include a 0.6% month-over-month decline in new home sales for July, which was below the expected 0.5% increase. Additionally, the Dallas Fed's business activity index for August came in at -1.8, lower than the expected 0.9, raising concerns about the health of the US economy [3] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $38.87, reached a high of $38.991, and then experienced a strong pullback, with a low of $38.524. The daily close was at $38.543, forming a long upper shadow on a bearish candlestick. Following a reduction in long positions from $37.8, the strategy is to hold positions at $38, with targets set at $38.5, $38.35, and $38.2 for potential exits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has eased, leading to a focus on upcoming U.S. PCE data for clues on Federal Reserve policy, which has limited the bullish outlook for gold prices [1] Price Movement - On August 25, gold opened at $3,371.93 per ounce, fluctuated between a low of $3,359.65 and a high of $3,375.94, and closed at $3,365.52, marking a decline of $6.71 or 0.2% [3] - The following day, gold continued to show weakness due to a stronger U.S. dollar, but there are still support levels that could lead to a potential rebound [3][6] Dollar Index - The dollar index has returned to a bullish trend, with increased momentum, although it remains below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential upward movement towards the 200-week moving average, which could limit gold's bullish potential [5] Market Indicators - The market is expected to focus on various U.S. economic indicators, including July durable goods orders and consumer confidence index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [6] - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to rise again, despite some bearish signals in the indicators [8] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,270 and $3,220, which could present buying opportunities if prices decline [8] - Resistance levels to watch include $3,386 and $3,400, with a potential target of $3,450 for upward movement [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a volatile adjustment trend, with a focus on potential support levels for a bullish outlook in the near future [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices fluctuated, starting at $3349.33 and reaching a high of $3438.67 before dropping to a low of $3325.05, ultimately closing at $3338.50, reflecting a weekly decline of $10.83 or 0.32% [1]. - The market saw a significant weekly volatility of $113.62, indicating a turbulent trading environment [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing strong technical resistance, which has contributed to its recent decline [3][4]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential bearish trend, with risks of a drop to $3000 or $2500 if the upward trend support is broken [9]. - However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average and within the previous upward trend channel [9]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - Optimism surrounding trade agreements and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing gold prices, with expectations of a bullish market during the rate-cutting cycle [7]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently predicted, which could further support gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical landscape and ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical factors that could lead to either a rebound in gold prices or further declines depending on the outcomes [4][6]. Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3324 and $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 and $3357 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $37.80 and $37.40, with resistance at $38.45 and $38.70 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential upward trend despite temporary declines due to easing trade tensions and market dynamics [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 24, gold opened at $3388.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3393.15, and then fell to a low of $3351.30, closing at $3368.39, marking a daily decline of $19.76 or 0.58% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a range, with strong support below, suggesting limited downside potential [5][9]. Market Influences - The easing of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Japan, and progress in U.S.-EU trade agreements have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, impacting its price [5]. - The outlook for interest rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to support gold prices, as comments from U.S. Treasury officials and President Trump suggest a significant reduction in rates may be forthcoming [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase within a triangular pattern, indicating that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish [5][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3350 and $3335, while resistance levels are at $3382 and $3393 [9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term perspective suggests that gold will continue to be supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, maintaining its status as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices may oscillate between $3000 and $3500 in the second half of the year, with potential for a bullish market in the following year [7].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, influenced by trade agreements between the US and other partners, which reduced market risk appetite and led to selling pressure [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3431.72 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3438.67, and then fell to a low of $3381.55, closing at $3387.02, with a daily range of $57.12 and a decline of $44.7, or 1.3% [3][5]. - The price is expected to remain in a consolidation phase unless it breaks through resistance levels, with potential support at the 10-day moving average or mid-line [3][9]. Market Influences - The US dollar index is showing a weak trend, which may limit gold's decline, but there are still short-term risks of further price drops [3][5]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and PMI figures, are anticipated to have a mixed impact on the market, leaning towards bearish for gold [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent trade negotiations easing tensions, the overall impact on gold prices is expected to be limited, with a prevailing bullish sentiment due to potential interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The long-term view remains positive for gold, supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential bull market resurgence by the end of the year [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate a recent rebound after touching support levels, although there are signs of weakening bullish momentum [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3383 or $3370, while resistance levels are at $3400 or $3416 [9].

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a contraction, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a bullish trend in gold prices by the end of the year [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Chicago Business Activity Index for June is at its lowest level since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic contraction [3]. - The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index has contracted for the fifth consecutive month, contributing to a bearish outlook for the dollar [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Bostic, anticipate one rate cut this year and three in the following year, suggesting a dovish monetary policy stance [3][6]. - Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chair has further strengthened expectations for rate cuts next year, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3][6]. Gold Price Movements - Gold prices opened at $3,272.74 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3,309.12, closing at $3,302.85, marking a daily increase of $30.11 or 0.92% [1]. - The price is expected to test the $3,400 level, with the 60-day moving average acting as a support level [1][10]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently cautious, awaiting key employment data, which is expected to show rising unemployment and decreasing job numbers, generally favorable for gold prices [3][5]. - Despite some bearish indicators, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold due to anticipated economic conditions and Fed policy [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold has maintained a bullish outlook as it remains above the 5-month moving average, although a drop below this level could signal a potential decline to around $3,000 [8]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation, but the prevailing trend remains upward unless significant support levels are breached [8][10].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market outperformed European stocks this week, supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - Factors contributing to the U.S. market's performance include easing Middle East tensions, reduced tariff pressures, and increased focus on technology stocks [1] - The upcoming release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key focus, with expectations that unless there is a significant upside surprise, the momentum may drive the S&P 500 index to new highs [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the ceasefire between Israel and Iran taking effect and Powell's remarks relaxing the dovish stance, the gold price dropped significantly and then rebounded slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3 yuan/gram. Although the risk - aversion sentiment cooled down, the easing expectation increased, and there is still downward pressure on the gold price [4]. - Silver: After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and Powell's remarks, the risk preference recovered. The silver price dropped significantly and then rebounded, showing slightly stronger performance than gold. As the situation in the Middle East eases, the silver price will give back its gains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect, and Powell reiterated a wait - and - see attitude while being non - committal about the prospect of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the gold price. The three major US stock indexes rose by more than 1%, and the three major European stock indexes closed higher across the board. The US dollar index fell 0.42% to 97.97, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1644. US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield dropping nearly 5 basis points to 4.297%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.66% to $3338.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the ceasefire and Powell's remarks, COMEX silver futures fell 0.88% to $35.87 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 0.79, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 18,213 kilograms, an increase of 45 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 1,256,831 kilograms, an increase of 9,728 kilograms compared to the previous day, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's central bank will release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the June monetary policy meeting - 08:15 Kansas City Fed President Schmid will discuss the economic outlook at the "2025 Agricultural Summit" - 09:00 Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura will speak in Fukushima - Time TBD The Summer Davos Forum will be held until June 26 - 09:30 Australia's May CPI data will be released - 16:45 Bank of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli will speak - 17:00 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak - 22:00 Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee, and the US May new home sales data will be released - Next day 01:30 ECB Banking Supervision Committee member Donnelly will speak - 02:00 The Fed will hold a meeting to discuss adjusting the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall back. The verification between the policy expectations and the reality of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.25% to 201,137, the short positions decreased by 4.06% to 67,417, and the net position decreased by 1.31% to 133,720 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [28]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.11% to 409,978, the short positions decreased by 1.57% to 306,572, and the net position increased by 5.45% to 103,406 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [30]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased in a volatile manner but was higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [37][38][40].

Group 1 - Discussion on potential clues regarding interest rate cuts within the year [1] - Examination of the impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S. inflation, employment, and supply chains [2] - Insights on the international situation, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran [3] Group 2 - Analysis of discussions surrounding U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Evaluation of Trump's actions against "illegal" immigration and its effects on the job market [5] - Consideration of Trump's deregulatory agenda, stablecoin legislation, and volatility in financial markets [6]