点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 一、投资规模与配置结构：险资入市节奏与动力机制 1）投资规模：25Q3末5家上市险企投资资产规模合计20.3万亿，较年初+10.5%。2）配置结构：25H1末5 家上市险企债券占比58.5%，较年初持平；股票占比9.3%，较年初+1.5pct；基金占比4.3%，较年 初-0.2pct。3）入市动力：低利率环境下权益资产成为险企增厚投资收益的"关键少数"，监管亦针对险资入 市推出多项松绑政策并作出量化指标要求。4）入市节奏：上市险企入市节奏较行业更快，25H1末股票仓 位高于行业0.5pct，提升幅度高于行业同期0.3pct。三季度行业入市力度进一步增强，季末股票仓位环比进 一步提升1.2pct至10%，我们预计四季度险资入市 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several construction companies, highlighting their potential for high returns based on expected dividend yields and low valuations [9][32]. Core Insights - The current policy environment is driving an increase in insurance capital allocation to the stock market, with a notable acceleration in Q3 this year. Insurance capital is favoring construction stocks with high ROE, high dividend yields, and low valuations, particularly focusing on companies like China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][2][14]. - It is estimated that the construction sector will receive an additional allocation of 28.6 billion yuan by 2026, representing 3.5% of the free float market value. Key A-share stocks recommended include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3% yield), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others, while H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][8][32]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital Trends - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance capital in China reached 37.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The allocation to stocks and funds was 3.6 trillion and 2.0 trillion yuan, respectively, accounting for 15.5% of total investments, with a significant increase noted in Q3 [2][22]. - The top three construction stocks held by insurance capital are China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge, which together account for 75% of the insurance capital's construction sector holdings [2][22]. Expected Capital Allocation - The projected allocation of insurance capital to the construction sector is estimated at 50.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 79.4 billion yuan in 2026, with an incremental increase of 28.6 billion yuan in 2026 [3][28]. - The overall allocation ratio for the construction sector is expected to rise from 1.31% in 2025 to 1.60% in 2026, driven by the sector's attractive dividend yield compared to other sectors [3][28]. Recommended Stocks - Key A-share stocks with expected dividend yields over 5% include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3%), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others. H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][29][32]. - The report also highlights semiconductor cleanroom leaders such as Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI investment wave [1][8][32].

Group 1 - The current policy is driving insurance capital to increase allocation in the stock market, with a significant acceleration observed in 2023, particularly in Q3 [1][2] - Insurance capital is favoring high ROE, high dividend yield, and undervalued stocks in the construction sector, with major holdings in China Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][2] - Sichuan Road and Bridge has recently received a stake increase from Zhongyin Life, indicating a trend of insurance capital focusing on high-quality construction stocks [2] Group 2 - It is estimated that insurance capital will allocate 286 billion yuan to the construction sector by 2026, representing 3.5% of the free float market value [3] - The projected allocation for the construction sector from insurance capital is expected to be 508 billion yuan in 2025 and 794 billion yuan in 2026, with incremental increases of 271 billion yuan and 286 billion yuan respectively [3] - The construction sector is expected to attract long-term capital due to the presence of stable performance, high dividends, and low valuations among key A-share companies [4] Group 3 - The global demand for computing power is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI development, leading to a new growth cycle for cleanroom engineering [5] - Major semiconductor companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with TSMC projecting a doubling of its AI business by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40% over the next five years [5] - The cleanroom investment in the semiconductor industry is projected to reach approximately 168 billion yuan globally and 50.4 billion yuan in China by 2025, representing about 15% of the total industry capital expenditure [5]

以下文章来源于创业板观察 ，作者闫军 创业板观察 . 创业板观察致力于发布深交所创业板的市场发展、政策变化、监管导向、上市企业动态等的及时信息，提供有价值的市场资讯。 A股上演绝地大反攻！12月18日，最新规模数据显示，股票ETF果真获得资金近百亿净流入，其中A500ETF成最大赢家，净流入超110亿 元。 A股震荡一个月后在12月17日午后上演反攻，沪深300ETF异动引发小作文猜想：神秘资金是不是又来了？ 这一次大资金进击，放巨量的主角是A500ETF。 截至收盘，5只A500ETF领跑市场，合计成交额合计达452.91亿元，其中，华泰柏瑞 A500ETF成交额达141.18亿元，华夏A500ETF以97.54亿元次之，南方、国泰、易方达旗下A500ETF成交额紧随其后。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF排名成交额第六，全天成交50.79亿元，4只头部沪深300ETF合计成交额为80.8亿元，并没有显著放量。 整体来看，全市场A500ETF合计成交额达525.75亿元，是沪深300ETF合计成交额（169.5亿元）的3倍之多。 从资金净流入数据更新，谁被大举买入进一步清晰，规模型股票ETF单日合计净流入96.58 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Supervision Administration has issued a notice to adjust risk factors related to insurance companies' business, aiming to cultivate patient capital and support technological innovation while enhancing the support for foreign trade enterprises [1][3]. Group 1: Adjustments to Risk Factors - The risk factor for stocks in the CSI 300 index and the CSI Low Volatility 100 index held for over 3 years has been reduced from 0.3 to 0.27 [1]. - The risk factor for ordinary shares listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over 2 years has been decreased from 0.4 to 0.36 [1]. - The premium risk factor for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance has been lowered from 0.467 to 0.42, while the reserve risk factor has been adjusted from 0.605 to 0.545 [1]. Group 2: Impact on Insurance Companies - Higher risk factors are closely related to capital occupation in insurance companies, with higher risk factors leading to increased capital consumption and potentially lowering solvency adequacy ratios [2]. - In 2023, the Financial Supervision Administration previously adjusted risk factors for investments in the CSI 300 index from 0.35 to 0.3 and for Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks from 0.45 to 0.4 [2]. - Insurance companies have been actively increasing their equity asset holdings, with nearly 40 instances of shareholding in listed companies this year, marking a 10-year high [2]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Management - The notice aims to effectively prevent risks, guide insurance companies to enhance long-term investment management capabilities, and better match assets and liabilities [3]. - The adjustments are intended to leverage insurance funds as patient capital to effectively serve the real economy and promote the sustainable and stable operation of insurance companies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline influenced by the significant drop in the AI technology sector in the US, but the non-bank financial sector, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, showed resilience and upward movement due to favorable policy changes and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices closed down, with the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and ChiNext falling by 0.55%, 1.1%, and 1.77% respectively, with a total market turnover of 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as food and beverage, retail, and insurance saw significant gains, with the securities insurance ETF (512070) rising by 2.02% and 7.18% over the past week [1]. Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector has become a focal point for investors, particularly following a recent policy announcement from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that aims to expand capital space and leverage limits for quality brokerages, enhancing capital efficiency [5][6]. - The current leverage ratio in the brokerage industry stands at 4.42 times, and the policy easing is expected to boost the scale of margin financing and proprietary trading, leading to optimistic expectations for the industry's return on equity (ROE) [6][7]. Group 3: Insurance Sector Developments - The insurance sector received a significant boost from a recent notification by the Financial Regulatory Administration, which lowered risk factors for insurance companies' investments in stocks, particularly for long-term holdings in major indices [8][9]. - This reduction in risk factors is expected to release substantial capital for investment, potentially injecting 108.6 billion yuan into the stock market if fully allocated to the CSI 300 index [10][11]. - The insurance sector's stock prices surged by 5.8% in a single day following the announcement, reflecting strong market expectations for the industry [15]. Group 4: Long-Term Investment Opportunities - The insurance and brokerage sectors are seen as attractive long-term investment opportunities due to their relatively low valuations compared to historical averages, with the insurance industry's average price-to-embedded value (PEV) ranging from 0.60 to 0.95 times [25]. - The ongoing policy support and the shift towards long-term capital inflows into the market are expected to further enhance the appeal of these sectors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [32][33]. - The insurance sector has increasingly diversified its investments into high-growth technology stocks, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies that could yield higher returns [35].

12月15日，A股三大股指低位震荡，保险板块逆市走强。截至下午收盘，A股保险板块中，中国平安 （SH601318）、中国太保（SH601601）涨幅均超3%，中国人寿（SH601628）、中国人保 （SH601319）和新华保险（SH601336）涨幅也在2%上下。 对外经济贸易大学创新与风险管理研究中心副主任龙格对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，保险股逆市上涨 主要得益于政策面释放的积极信号，特别是金融监管总局下调保险公司相关业务风险因子，直接减轻了 保险公司的资本压力。《公开募集证券投资基金销售行为规范（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《意见 稿》）引导资金配置权重股，为保险板块带来了增量资金预期。 "行业基本面持续改善，资产端涉房风险降低，投资端改革推进，负债端转型也初见成效。国内外多家 机构看好行业前景并上调评级，认为市场整体回暖将进一步提升保险投资收益。"龙格表示。 寿险行业有望再次进入黄金发展期？ 12月15日，市场总体在低位震荡，保险、零售业等板块逆市上涨。截至收盘，中国平安最新股价为 67.08元/股，涨幅4.96%；中国太保最新股价为39.58元/股，涨幅3.5%；中国人保最新股价为8.79元/股， 涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance funds are significantly increasing their market participation under regulatory encouragement for long-term investment, with a notable impact on market stability [2][8]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Activities - On December 5, 2025, Ruizhong Life Insurance purchased 200,000 shares of Qingdao Beer H-shares for 10.64 million HKD, raising its total holdings to 32.76 million shares, which is 5% of the total H-share capital [3][4]. - This marks the third time in 2025 that Ruizhong Life has made a significant investment in listed companies, contributing to a total of 38 instances of insurance capital raising stakes in listed companies this year, the highest in nearly a decade [2][9]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has lowered risk factors for insurance companies' related business, aiming to guide long-term capital into the market and support stable capital market operations [8][9]. - As of September 2025, the total investment balance of the insurance industry reached 37.5 trillion CNY, with stock allocations amounting to 3.6 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.1%, representing 9.67% of total investments [9]. Group 3: Market Implications - The adjustment of long-term investment stock risk factors indicates a relaxation of regulatory constraints on insurance capital's equity asset allocation, responding to market expectations for long-term capital entry [9]. - The surge in insurance capital's market activities, including Ruizhong Life's recent actions, reflects a broader trend of increased institutional investment in the capital market, which is crucial for the stability and high-quality development of the real economy [9].

而本文就是要对2025年的险资运用进行全景图式的梳理总结，勾勒这一年险资运用的几条重点逻辑。 监管政策持续松绑 购买《保险新时代2024》 近日，监管再次下调险资股票投资风险因子，为2025年险资的大事件再添一件，进一步为险企偿付能力松绑的同时，鼓励险资入市。有券商预测，此 举将释放数百亿，甚至上千亿元的保险资金。 毫无疑问，险企俨然已经成为股市最重要的机构投资者之一。根据国家金融监管总局发布的数据，截至2025年三季度末，人身险和财产险公司权益类 投资（股票 + 证券投资基金）规模达到5.59万亿元，相较年初增加1.49万亿元，大涨36.18%。其中，三季度末的股票投资规模为3.62万亿元，较年初 增加1.19万亿元，证券投资基金1.97万亿元，较年初增加0.3万亿元。 短短三个季度，仅投向股票的保险资金就增加了1.19万亿元，各种公开举牌也达到了37次之多，而一向追求稳健的险企之所以敢于大举增加权益类投 资，一方面是受到股市走牛的影响，但更重要的，还在于各种政策的支持。 回望全年，在利率长期下行与"资产荒"的双重压力下，2025年的保险资金运用呈现出前所未有的张力：一方面，在引导中长期资金入市的大旗下，监 ...

值得注意的是，证监会主席吴清表示对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间 和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率。海通证券研报分析指出，吴清主席提出的对优质机构"松绑"政策，其 核心在于推动证券行业经营逻辑从规模导向转向风险定价能力，从依赖牌照红利转向提升专业经营水 平。这一转变将显著利好优质头部券商，成为板块估值修复的重要催化剂。 消息面上，金融监管委员会发布对调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知。国泰海通指出，金监总局下 调长期持有的沪深300、中证红利低波成分股及部分科创板股票风险因子，在不放松偿付能力约束的前 提下，降低险资配置优质权益资产的资本占用，强化"长期持有享受资本优惠"的导向。本次释放的最低 资本规模有限但方向明确，有利于险资适度提升权益占比、延长持仓久期。叠加"新增保费约30%入 市"的中长期逻辑，我们仍看好险资在未来几年持续为权益市场提供增量。 中资券商股涨幅扩大，截至发稿，中国银河(06881)涨5.17%，报10.57港元；国泰海通(02611)涨4.61%， 报16.78港元；中信证券(06030)涨3.21%，报27.64港元；广发证券(01776)涨2.58%，报17. ...