Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlines China's economic performance and strategic priorities, emphasizing resilience and innovation in the face of challenges, while setting a roadmap for future growth and stability. Economic Performance and Outlook - The overall economic operation is stable with expected growth around 5% for the year, positioning China among the leading global economies, with a GDP target of approximately 140 trillion yuan [2] - Employment remains stable, with significant growth in foreign trade and diversified exports [2] - The construction of a modern industrial system is progressing, with advancements in technology and innovation, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [2] - Reforms and opening-up measures are advancing, with a focus on building a unified national market and addressing "involution" in competition [2] - Positive progress in risk mitigation in key areas, including local government debt management and the completion of housing projects [2] - Social welfare policies, such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education, are being implemented to enhance public welfare [2] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The conference acknowledges ongoing economic challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3] - Despite these challenges, China's long-term economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by its socialist system, large market, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources [3] - The government plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, to support economic recovery [4][5] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while addressing local fiscal challenges and ensuring sustainable finances [5][6] - Emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure to support major national strategies and enhance social welfare [6][7] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, maintaining liquidity, and supporting key sectors like technology and small enterprises [8][9] - A flexible approach to monetary tools will be adopted to align financing growth with economic and price expectations [8][9] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment, particularly in services and infrastructure [9][10] - The government aims to enhance consumer purchasing power and support new consumption models while increasing investment in social welfare and urban renewal projects [10] Regional Development and Coordination - The conference emphasizes the importance of regional coordination in development, with specific strategies for enhancing the roles of major economic provinces [19][20] - Plans include tailored support for local economies and promoting urban-rural integration [19][20] Green Transition and Employment - The government is committed to a green transition, with initiatives aimed at carbon peak and neutrality, alongside promoting green industries [21][22] - Employment policies will focus on stabilizing job markets, particularly for key demographics like graduates and migrant workers, while enhancing vocational training [23][24] Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market is under scrutiny, with measures to stabilize housing prices and promote high-quality development [26][27] - Strategies include addressing supply-demand dynamics and supporting real estate companies in transitioning to new business models [27][28]

分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-12 研究所 风险提示： 中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；政策效果不及预期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《鲜菜鲜果涨价支撑食品改善，服务 价格相对稳固》 - 2025.12.11 宏观研究 中共中央经济工作会议精神学习：符合预期，整体 定调更具针对性 核心要点 本次中央经济工作会议基本符合预期，整体定调更具针对性，各 项核心部署基本契合市场预期，政策导向的延续性与灵活性得到充分 体现。2026 年我国经济发展仍是目标导向，经济增长预期目标或应有 所下修。宏观政策"更加积极"定调不变，政策倾向于保持谨慎克制， 政策力度或基本持平去年水平。 从 8 个重点工作内容来看，（1）扩内需仍是首位工作，重点关 注服务消费突围、"两重"投资回暖。（2）国际科技创新中心引领新 动能培育和发展，新型基础设施建设是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, emphasized the need for a stable and progressive economic policy, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the economic work for 2026 [5][21]. Economic Policy Direction - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance, and integrating existing and new policies [3][18]. - It was decided to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [8][24]. Key Tasks for 2026 - The conference outlined several key tasks for 2026, including: - Promoting a strong domestic market and enhancing consumer spending through targeted actions [9][25]. - Fostering innovation and developing new growth drivers, particularly in technology and education [10][26]. - Strengthening reforms to boost high-quality development and addressing issues in state-owned enterprises and private sector regulations [10][26]. - Expanding international cooperation and trade, particularly in digital and green sectors [10][26]. - Coordinating urban and rural development, ensuring food security, and maintaining poverty alleviation efforts [11][27]. - Leading with a "dual carbon" approach to promote green transformation and environmental protection [11][27]. Emphasis on People's Livelihood - The conference stressed the importance of improving people's livelihoods, including stabilizing employment for key groups and enhancing education and healthcare services [12][28]. - It also highlighted the need to address risks in key sectors, particularly in the real estate market, and to manage local government debt effectively [12][28]. Overall Economic Confidence - The conference called for unity and confidence in the economic outlook, emphasizing the need to adapt to new challenges while leveraging existing strengths [22][29]. - It underscored the importance of aligning actions with the central government's strategic vision and ensuring effective implementation of economic policies [30][31].

2026年经济工作怎么干？ 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议（下称"会议"）在北京举行，为明年经济工作提供明确指引。 会议认为，做好新形势下经济工作，"必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必 须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战。" 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"。同时，会议要求，"推动经济实现质的 有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现'十五五'良好开局。" 会议通稿发布之际，《财经》邀请中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷、摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自 强、中信证券首席经济学家明明开展对话，展望2026年政策动向，并对部分重点举措进行解读。 在政策取向上，会议提出，要"坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。具体而 言，要继续实施"更加积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"。 对此，三位首席经济学家均认为，2026年财政政策有望加力，同时进一步强化"投资于人"和支持消费。 货币政策方面，三位首席均认为，明年降准降息仍有空间。其中，邢自强认为，明年政策利率有望下调 10个-20 ...

一是坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩 大优质商品和服务供给。优化"两新"政策实施。清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。推 动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管 理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。 来源：三里河 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。对于明年经济工作，会议提出"八个坚持"。 会议确定，明年经济工作抓好以下重点任务。 六是坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型。深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲 要，加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。实施固体废物综合治理 行动，深入打好蓝天、碧水、净土保卫战，强化新污染物治理。扎实推进"三北"工程攻坚战，实施自然 保护地整合优化。加强气象监测预报预警体系建设，加紧补齐北方地区防洪排涝抗灾基础设施短板，提 高应对极端天气能力。 七是坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事。实施稳岗扩容提质行动，稳定高校毕业生、农民工等重 点群体就业，鼓励支持灵活就业人员 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of zinc and nickel, which fell by 0.3% and 0.91% respectively. Tin led the gains with a rise of 1.02%, while copper increased by 0.8% [1] - Aluminum oxide futures dropped by 1.4%, reaching a historical low of 2462 yuan/ton, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.36% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 3.97%, polysilicon futures increased by 1.32%, and industrial silicon futures rose by 0.06% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coil all fell by over 1%, with iron ore down 1.3% [1] - Internationally, most base metals saw increases, except for nickel, which fell by 0.05% [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose by 0.32%, while COMEX silver surged by 2.16%, reaching a new high of $63.25/ounce [1] - Domestic gold and silver also saw increases, with Shanghai gold up 0.21% and Shanghai silver up 3.07%, the latter reaching a record of 14665 yuan/kg [1] Macro Environment - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [3] - The World Bank raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3] - Jilin Province's planning document emphasized the need to manage risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [3] Oil Market - As of 15:03, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% and 0.61% respectively, amid ongoing attention to peace talks in Ukraine [5] - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [5]

国内政策点评报告 政治局会议定调明年经济政策 注重多重平衡、聚焦提质增效 核心结论 中共中央 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。整体而言，会议对今年以来各项工作予以 高度肯定。在延续此前"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策"、扩大内需、支持创新的政策基调之上，明年经 济工作将更加注重多方面因素的统筹与平衡，更为聚焦经济发展的提质增 效。以下为部分重点内容分析： 一是会议注重统筹考虑国内外综合因素。提出"更好统筹国内经济工作和国 际经贸斗争"，与今年 4 月政治局会议的表达一致。预计未来应对全球贸易 摩擦纷争，国内政策仍将留有"后手"，不断充实政策储备。 二是会议注重统筹逆周期调节与跨周期调节。宏观政策延续"更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"基调，新增"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成 效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能"的说法， 更强调政策的结构、质量、效果，不排除后续不断创新相关政策工具。 三是会议注重统筹供给与需求、存量与增量。会议一如既往重视内需，提出 "持续扩大内需、优 ...

| | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 | | --- | --- | | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 | | | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 | | | | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 | | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 | | 2025 | 2024 | | --- | --- | | Prioritize domestic demand, build a strong | Boost consumption, improve investment returns, | | domestic market | expand domestic demand | | Drive innovation, accelerate cultivation of | Drive new productive force development with | | new growth driv ...

最新解读。 据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面 依法治国工作条例》。 对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。多 位受访专家表示，明年经济增长转型诉求不减，政策需要兼顾短期与长远，内需将继续发挥助力经济总 体回升向好的"助推器"作用，并坚持以开放促改革促发展，重点领域风险化解将更加积极稳妥。 延续"更加积极有为"取向 明年加大逆周期与跨周期力度 今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年的财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏 观政策环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持性的政策立场。 从财政政策看，"更加积极"意味着明年财政 ...

最新解读。 据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供 给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。多位受访专家表示，明年经济增长转型诉求不减，政策需要兼顾短期与长远，内需将继续发挥助力经济总体回升向好的"助 推器"作用，并坚持以开放促改革促发展，重点领域风险化解将更加积极稳妥。 延续"更加积极有为"取向 明年加大逆周期与跨周期力度 今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向好。根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政 策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年的财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏观政策环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持 性的政策立场。 从财政政策看，"更加积极"意味着明年财政政策有 ...