Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily Report [4] - Date: August 11, 2025 [5] - Author: Baishuna from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Group 2: Price and Position Data Price Data - On August 8, 2025, COMEX silver was at $3394.74, London gold spot at $787.80, London silver spot at $38.57, COMEX gold at $9278.00, AG (T + D) at $783.43, AU (T + D) at $9238.00, AU2510 at $3499.20, and AG2510 at $38.30. Compared with August 7, the price increases were 0.2%, 0.5%, 1.2%, 0.6%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively [5]. - The price differences and their increases or decreases between different markets and varieties are also presented, such as the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread, COMEX gold - silver ratio, etc. For example, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread on August 8 was - 4.37 yuan/gram, with a 5.1% increase from the previous day [5]. Position Data - COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions, gold and silver ETF holdings, and their changes are provided. For example, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on August 8 were 237050, a - 11.50% change from the previous day [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Index Data Inventory Data - COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories and their changes are given. For example, COMEX silver inventory on August 8 was 506492427 troy ounces, a - 0.22% change from the previous day [5]. Market Index Data - Data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate, the S&P 500, NYMEX crude oil, the US dollar index, and VIX are presented, along with their changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield on August 8 was 7.14, a - 8.57% change from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on August 8 that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15, stating that the Ukraine situation may be resolved soon [5]. - Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor, and the St. Louis Fed President supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged last week [5]. - The US Customs and Border Protection initially ruled that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars should be taxed, but the Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that gold bar imports should not be taxed [5]. - The Israeli government approved a plan to occupy the Gaza Strip after a 10 - hour discussion [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On August 8, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.56% to 787.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.84% to 9278 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Short - term factors affecting precious metal prices include potential additional US tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, nominations of Federal Reserve officials, China's central bank's continuous gold purchases for 9 months, upcoming US - Russia leader meetings, and the clarification of gold bar import tariffs. The short - term upward momentum of gold prices may be limited, but the Fed's high probability of cutting interest rates in August and tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices at a high level. Silver prices may continue to be strong in the short - term but should be cautious about the upside in the medium - term [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - The Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, and the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rebound in spot gold prices, nearing $3,400 per ounce, is primarily influenced by the Chinese central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves for foreign exchange hedging rather than a bullish outlook on gold itself [1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from June, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] - The decline in the US dollar index is negatively correlated with gold prices, leading to an increase in gold prices as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve grow, alongside concerns about a potential economic recession in the US [1] Group 2 - International investment banks, such as Citigroup, have recently shifted their stance to a bullish outlook on gold, raising their price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, indicating potential upward price movement [2] - Despite the optimistic price targets of $3,500 to $3,600 per ounce, the overall expectation suggests a narrowing of upward space for gold prices, indicating a likely continuation of range-bound trading without significant new capital inflows [4] - For individual investors holding gold-related assets, maintaining positions is crucial, while new purchases should be approached with caution, as significant price fluctuations are not anticipated in the near term [4]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has risen slightly to $3303 per ounce before the non-farm payroll report [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a short-term increase of nearly 10 points, reaching 100.23 [1] Group 2 - The movements in spot gold and the US Dollar Index indicate market reactions ahead of significant economic data releases [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a technical rebound during Asian trading on Thursday, recovering from a significant drop the previous day, and successfully stabilized above the 100-day moving average [1][3] - Prior to this rebound, gold prices had fallen sharply to approximately $3,270, reaching a one-month low due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) turned bearish, indicating that momentum favored sellers, as gold prices dipped below $3,300 per ounce and hit a three-week low [3] Group 2 - In the context of trade negotiations, Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports, criticizing India's purchases of Russian energy and weapons [2] - Economists expressed concerns that the last-minute push for trade agreements could lead to greater economic costs for the countries involved, as they rush to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported constructive discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and macroeconomic policies, emphasizing the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest private gold producer in China, with a strong focus on gold mining and sales globally, and has been given a "Buy" rating in a recent research report [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates four precious metal mines domestically, with the Five Dragon Mine and Jilong Shanzizi Mine being the core contributors to its gold output, maintaining stable annual production and significant exploration results [1] - Internationally, the company manages two precious metal mines, with the Saipan Mine being a key player in gold production and the Vasa Mine acquired in 2022 expected to be a major source of future gold increments [1][2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and outstanding cost control capabilities, with its domestic mines being high-grade deposits that are rare in the domestic gold market, leading to top-tier profitability [2] - The company has a strategic focus on cost control, which has significantly improved its profitability and debt management, laying a solid foundation for future resource expansion and mergers [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may face pressure, but the downside potential is limited, with expected upward momentum in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's policy shift [3] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. debt burden exacerbated by the "Big and Beautiful Act" could provide potential opportunities for gold prices to trend upward [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 12.205 billion yuan, 14.104 billion yuan, and 15.279 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.692 billion yuan, 4.311 billion yuan, and 4.886 billion yuan for the same years [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.76, 11.78, and 10.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating based on future growth prospects [4] Group 5: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, eight institutions have rated the stock, with seven "Buy" ratings and one "Hold" rating, and the average target price among institutions is 40.09 yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by developments in US-EU trade agreements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term while maintaining a strong long-term perspective on gold prices due to central bank purchases. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - US-EU Trade Agreement Progress: The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and EU has reduced market risk aversion, causing spot gold to open significantly lower by $18, reaching a near one-month low [3]. - Federal Reserve Dynamics: The July meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve suggest a potential rate cut of only 25 basis points in September, which is below the market's expectation of 50 basis points, leading to a strengthening of the dollar and a decrease in gold demand [3]. - Geopolitical Situations: A temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical premiums, with a $15 drop in gold prices. Ongoing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to affect market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term Outlook: Gold prices are expected to remain weak with support levels at $3300 - $3315 and resistance levels at $3350 - $3370. A break below key support could lead to further declines, while a breakout above resistance may allow for a rebound [4]. - Long-term Perspective: The logic supporting gold prices remains robust due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, although attention must be paid to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, trade dynamics, and geopolitical risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a return to a range-bound trading environment, with significant resistance and support levels to monitor for potential price movements [1][3]. Price Movements - After a steady increase earlier in the week, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling below key support levels, which disrupted the overall market rhythm [1]. - The price tested the 3386-3353 range, with a notable drop to the 3353 level, indicating a potential downward shift if this support is breached [1][3]. Key Levels to Watch - The critical support level to observe is 3353-3351; a failure to hold this range could lead to a further decline of approximately $20 [1][3]. - Conversely, if prices break above the early morning high of 3373-3374, there could be an upward shift of $20 [1]. Technical Indicators - The daily chart shows a pattern of consecutive gains followed by losses, with the life line at 3346 being pivotal for determining future price movements [3]. - The four-hour chart indicates a downward pressure, with the life line at 3390-3392 acting as a key dividing line between bullish and bearish trends [3]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with the price oscillating around the 3353 level, suggesting a potential buildup of momentum for either direction [3]. - The purple channel's mid-point serves as a critical switching point, with the lower boundary facing its fourth test, indicating a heightened risk of a breakdown [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is experiencing significant resistance at the $3360 level, which may limit short-term rebound potential [1] - There is a substantial amount of short orders at $3360, suggesting downward pressure on gold prices, with the strongest resistance level identified at $3363.45 [1] - Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, there is a slight increase in bullish sentiment after consecutive days of decline, which may help to limit further downside, with a key support level at $3345.69 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold price has broken below the range of $3359-62, leading to the formation of a new short accumulation zone, which is currently a major resistance level [1]. Group 2 - The real-time tracking of the latest long and short transaction changes is emphasized, suggesting a dynamic market environment for spot gold [1].