Market Overview - As of February 3, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 907,000 tons, an increase of 11% month-on-month [5] - The steel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with 247 steel mills operating at a blast furnace utilization rate of 79%, up 0.32 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.2798 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.12 million tons week-on-week [5] Steel Production and Inventory - Last week, the total supply of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week [5] - Rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production rose by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons [5][6] - Total steel inventory reached 12.7851 million tons, an increase of 214,300 tons week-on-week, with rebar inventory rising by 234,300 tons, a 5.2% increase [5][6] Rebar Market Insights - Rebar production saw a slight increase, totaling 1.9983 million tons, while total inventory rose to 4.7553 million tons [6][17] - Demand for rebar has decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons, indicating a seasonal weakness in the market [6][17] - The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in prices as winter storage is nearly complete [6][17] Hot-Rolled Steel Insights - Hot-rolled steel production increased to 3.0921 million tons, with a week-on-week rise of 3.8 million tons [7][18] - Total inventory decreased by 22,000 tons, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed [7][18] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach, maintaining low inventory and quick turnover strategies [7][18] Iron Alloy Market Overview - The overall supply of iron alloys remains low, with production changes being minimal [9][20] - Cost pressures are stabilizing, with the first round of coke price increases being implemented [9][20] - Demand from steel mills is stable, but production recovery is constrained by profit margins and safety regulations [9][20]

2026.02. 03 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李秀中 2月3日，四川、江苏、上海、内蒙古、宁夏和湖南等省份人代会开幕，至此，除安徽外全国30个省份人代会均已召开，各地2025年经济社会主要预期 目标也相继揭晓。从经济增长目标来看，各地大多确定在5%左右，其中，多个经济大省将目标定在5%以上。 西藏海南新疆目标最高 梳理各地人代会公布的目标来看，除了辽宁、云南、天津和青海的GDP增长目标定在4.5%左右，其他省份都在5%左右或者5%以上。其中，西藏预期 增长目标最高，为7%以上；其次是海南，目标定在6%左右；新疆也把目标定在5.5%-6%。 珠海一家科技公司在进行无人艇测试。新华社资料 大多数省份今年的增长目标与2025年经济实际增速相当。不过，个别省份今年目标低于去年增速，显示仍面临较大的下行压力；一些省份的目标仍需跳 起摸高，辽宁、云南和青海2025年分别增长3.7%、4.1%和4.1%，要实现4.5%的增速也有一定的压力。 辽宁省政府工作报告称，确定4.5%左右的增长目标，在实际工作中努力争取更好结果，兼顾了需要与可能、当前与长远、发展与安全，既实事求是、 又留有余地 ...

Economic Growth Targets - The overall economic growth targets for the top ten provinces are relatively high, with most provinces setting targets around 5% or higher [1][7] - Tibet has the highest growth target at over 7%, followed by Hainan at around 6%, and Xinjiang at 5.5%-6% [2] Provincial Growth Dynamics - Most provinces' growth targets for this year align with their actual growth rates, although some provinces face downward pressure with targets lower than last year's growth [4] - Liaoning, Yunnan, and Qinghai have set lower targets of around 4.5%, indicating challenges in achieving these goals [4] Infrastructure and Investment - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, have significantly contributed to Tibet's high growth rates [6] - Hainan's economic growth is expected to benefit from the full operation of its free trade port by the end of 2025, creating substantial growth opportunities [6] Economic Resilience of Major Provinces - Economic powerhouses like Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hubei are expected to lead growth, with Jiangsu benefiting from the development of strategic emerging industries [7][8] - Guangdong's export structure is improving, with new sectors like lithium batteries and electric vehicles driving growth, showcasing the resilience of major provinces [8] Policy and Strategic Focus - Provinces are emphasizing the need to support national economic goals while striving for better results in their growth targets [8][9] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and ensuring stable employment and market expectations to achieve quality and quantity growth [9]

据上观新闻，上海市第十六届人大四次会议2月3日上午在世博中心开幕。上海市市长龚正作《政府 工作报告》。 龚正说，综合各方面因素，建议今年全市经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：全市生产总值增长5%左 右，地方一般公共预算收入增长2%，全社会研发经费支出相当于全市生产总值的比例达到4.6%左 右，城镇调查失业率5%以内，居民人均可支配收入增长与经济增长保持基本同步，居民消费价格涨 幅2%左右。 编辑：七三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a GDP growth target set between "4.5% to 5%" is likely to be realized, which has contributed to the decline in bond yields, as this figure is lower than the previous market expectation of "around 5%" [2][3] Group 1: Impact of GDP Growth Target on Bond Yields - A lower GDP growth target is perceived by some investors to correspond with lower interest rates, but this view is debatable as it conflates the growth target with potential economic growth [3] - The natural interest rate, which aligns with maximum economic output and price stability, should match the macro-level interest rates in the long term [3] - The downward adjustment of the annual GDP growth target is not necessarily beneficial for the bond market and may have a neutral to slightly negative impact [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The fundamental goal of financial macro-control is to stabilize economic operations, with economic performance being the core factor influencing monetary policy [4] - When the demand for economic growth is strong, monetary authorities typically lower policy rates and increase liquidity, which is favorable for long-term interest rates [4] - Conversely, a lower economic growth target reduces the necessity for aggressive monetary policy actions, negatively impacting bond market valuations [4] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a low volatility state until the end of February, with limited space for yield fluctuations, likely stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% for the 10-year government bond yield [4] - A significant downward shift in the 10-year government bond yield is anticipated to occur after expectations for a reduction in the 7D OMO rate materialize, but the extent of this shift is expected to be limited [5][6] - The current yield spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 7D OMO rate is only 42 basis points, indicating that substantial compression of this spread is challenging [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Government aims for a GDP growth of 4.5% to 5% by 2026, alongside a 3% increase in local public budget revenue and synchronized growth in residents' income with economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Goals - The main economic targets for Guangdong in 2026 include a GDP growth of 4.5% to 5% and a local public budget revenue growth of approximately 3% [1] - Residents' income is expected to grow in line with the overall economic growth [1] Group 2: Education Initiatives - In 2025, Guangdong plans to add 500,000 public school seats in basic education and establish three new vocational colleges at the undergraduate level [1] - A free education policy for the final year of preschool will be implemented, benefiting 1.68 million children [1] - Guangdong has been the only province in China with a birth population exceeding one million for six consecutive years [1] Group 3: Business Environment Improvements - By 2025, Guangdong will fully optimize enterprise-related approval and filing services, achieving the fastest processing times for 891 provincial-level matters [1] - The province aims to create a market-oriented, law-based, and international first-class business environment by 2026, focusing on minimal approval and filing requirements, rapid government service, and an optimal industrial ecosystem [1] - Continuous reforms in the business environment will be introduced to ensure comprehensive support and efficient services [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Banking and Property Sector - **Context**: Insights from the 2026 Greater China Conference (GCC) and subsequent macro, financial, and property tours Key Points on Economic Outlook - **2026 GDP Growth Target**: Expected to be set at 4.5-5.0%, with some experts optimistic about achieving close to 5% due to strong exports and easing deflationary pressures [2][8][10] - **Deflationary Pressure**: CPI expected to rise to 0.5%, while PPI may narrow its decline to a range of -1% to 0% [10] - **Consumption Growth**: Not seen as a key driver for 2026; trade-in subsidies are fading [2][19] Banking Sector Insights - **NIM Pressure**: Current stretched NIM levels are a constraint for rate cuts; a small rate cut of 10bps is anticipated [3][15] - **Loan Origination**: Decent loan origination observed in early January, primarily driven by corporate loans; retail loan recovery remains limited [5][48] - **Revenue Outlook**: Improved revenue outlook driven by less YoY NIM decline and ongoing fee income recovery; investment income may lag due to a less favorable bond market [5][50] Property Sector Outlook - **Bearish Sentiment**: Experts hold a bearish view on the property sector, expecting a 10% decline in property prices in 2026 and 5% in 2027 [4][27] - **Homebuyer Behavior**: Shift from buying to renting; potential 30-40% downside in property prices if rental yields align with mortgage rates [4][27] - **Policy Support**: Limited policy tools available to stabilize property prices; expectations for major new policies in 2026 are low [4][16][27] Specific Company Insights - **Chengdu MixC**: Strong sales growth with retail sales reaching approximately Rmb8.5 billion in 2025; proactive tenant changes attributed to outperformance [30] - **C&D Haiyao**: Luxury project demand remains, with a successful launch of a luxury residential project at an average price of over Rmb77,000 per sqm [31] Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: Complicated geopolitical relations may impact export growth; however, solid external demand is expected [17] - **RMB Appreciation**: Potential for RMB to enter an appreciation cycle, with expectations of a 3-4% appreciation by the end of 2026 [18] - **Distressed Developers**: Many banks are allowing roll-over of existing project loans to distressed developers, delaying NPL recognition [22] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the banking and property sectors is cautious, with expectations of limited growth and ongoing challenges. The focus remains on managing asset quality and navigating a complex macroeconomic environment.

Group 1 - The Philippine Economic Minister expects consumer spending to rebound in 2026 against a backdrop of low inflation [1] - The overall economy is projected to achieve strong growth, particularly in the second half of the year [1] - The GDP growth target for 2026 has been raised to 5%-6% [1] Group 2 - The GDP growth target for 2027 has been adjusted upward to 5.5%-6.5% [1] - The GDP growth target for 2028 remains at 6%-7% [1]

Group 1 - The outlook for the A-share market indicates a potential continuation of the bull market into 2026 [1] - The capital market is expected to see the emergence of "new four bulls," focusing on resource optimization and efficiency improvement [1] - The macroeconomic logic driving gold prices in 2025 is anticipated to boost copper prices in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The GDP growth target is projected to be around 5% [1] - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create cyclical stimulus, with a continued expansion of the fiscal deficit ratio [1] - Five major highlights for the Chinese economy are anticipated in 2026 [1] Group 3 - There are four key investment opportunities in computing power to be capitalized on [1] - The year 2026 is expected to mark the beginning of mass production for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, opening up a trillion-yuan market [1] - The energy storage industry is projected to experience a simultaneous increase in both volume and price in 2026 [1] Group 4 - The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing a value reconstruction, with expectations for significant developments in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on Tuesday, with the three major indexes slightly up. The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central position since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. Short - term policy influence on the market is expected to increase after the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The important meetings indicate a 5% GDP growth target for next year, and policy efforts will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". The combination of fiscal and monetary policies will continue, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan have led to oscillations in US tech stocks, and the Bank of Japan's upcoming interest - rate meeting may affect carry - trade funds. The impact of important meetings on the stock index is long - term, and in the short term, it will mainly oscillate [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. Although the central bank has shown an attitude of stabilizing the capital market, the overall economy remains resilient, prices are warming up, and the oscillating pattern of the bond market is difficult to change [1][2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries **Research Views** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market had a volatile performance on Tuesday, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume was 1.92 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%. The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central position since October. Policy influence is expected to increase, and the GDP growth target for next year is expected to be 5%. Overseas factors, such as the Fed's rate cut and the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting, also have an impact. The short - term view is that the stock index will oscillate [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with gains on the previous trading day. The central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 23, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The monetary policy in 2026 will be moderately loose, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. The short - term capital market is loose, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. **Daily Price Changes** - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 23, 2025, IH rose 7.2 points (0.24%) to 3,025.6, IF rose 6.6 points (0.14%) to 4,571.4, IC rose 10.0 points (0.14%) to 7,133.2, and IM fell 6.2 points (- 0.09%) to 7,197.4 compared to December 22 [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index rose 7.3 points (0.24%) to 3,027.5, the CSI 300 Index rose 9.1 points (0.20%) to 4,620.7, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.1 points (0.02%) to 7,256.8, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 15.9 points (- 0.22%) to 7,392.4 on December 23, 2025, compared to December 22 [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 23, 2025, TS rose 0.062 points (0.06%) to 102.53, TF rose 0.165 points (0.16%) to 106.03, T rose 0.24 points (0.22%) to 108.22, and TL rose 0.85 points (0.76%) to 112.83 compared to December 22 [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On December 23, 2025, the yield of the 2 - year treasury bond fell 3.03 to 1.3401, the 5 - year treasury bond yield fell 2.06 to 1.5875, the 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.69 to 1.8355, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield fell 2.3 to 2.2200 compared to December 22 [4]. **Market News** - US Treasury Secretary Bessent supports re - examining the Fed's 2% inflation target after inflation has continuously declined to the target level. He suggests discussing adjusting the inflation target to a range such as 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3%. However, he warns that adjusting the target during high inflation may give a negative impression [5]. **Chart Analysis** - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing their price changes over time [6][7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17][18][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB exchange rates, forward euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, British pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [21][22][24][26][28][30].