Core Insights - The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has revised its GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2025 from 0.1% to 0.4%, indicating a still weak economic outlook [1] - The second quarter GDP growth of 0.7% exceeded market expectations, contributing to a slight upward adjustment in the annual economic forecast, although the overall performance remains weak [1] - External factors such as fluctuations in demand, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and weak domestic consumption continue to impact Mexico's economic growth momentum [1] Economic Forecasts - IMEF maintains the inflation rate forecast at 4.0% for the end of this year [1] - The Mexican central bank's interest rate is expected to decrease to 7.25% by the end of the year [1] Tariff Policy Impact - The delay in the imposition of certain tariffs by the U.S. has provided some support for the economic outlook, as the erratic nature of tariff announcements has affected export flows [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major international investment banks have raised their GDP growth forecasts for South Korea in 2023, indicating a positive outlook driven by improved exports and manufacturing growth [1] Group 1: GDP Growth Forecasts - JPMorgan has revised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.5% to 0.6% and then to 0.7%, citing better-than-expected second-quarter GDP performance [1] - Goldman Sachs has increased its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 1.1% to 1.2%, attributing this to reduced uncertainties in tariffs on certain products due to the Korea-U.S. trade agreement [1] - The average GDP growth forecast from eight major international investment banks for South Korea stands at 0.9% as of the end of July, remaining unchanged for two consecutive months [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook Adjustments - The Bank of Korea is expected to revise its economic outlook in August, likely increasing its GDP growth forecast for the year [1]

Group 1: Hot News - China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days during the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%, and also adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [2] - From January to June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 40.745 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The asset-liability ratio at the end of June was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self-media news about the anti-involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in polysilicon, was seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [3] - US President Trump announced a 10 - day deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine and threatened economic punishment if Russia did not act [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PVC, and PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 27.10%, oilseeds 11.77%, non - ferrous metals 2.78%, soft commodities 21.03%, coal - coking - steel - ore 15.29%, energy 3.31%, chemicals 11.90%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% daily, 4.80% monthly, and 7.70% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.30% daily [8] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.25% daily, 0.70% monthly, and 0.73% year - to - date [8] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil rose 3.91% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 6.91% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.36% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 26.29% year - to - date [8] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.26% daily, 0.93% monthly, and fell 9.05% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 10.76% monthly, and 13.95% year - to - date [8]

Group 1 - The IMF has revised down its GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 by 0.6 percentage points to 0.9% [1] - Previously, the IMF had slightly raised Russia's GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.5% in April [1]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Relations - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed uncertainty about reaching a trade agreement with Washington before the deadline to avoid increased tariffs by the U.S. [1] - The potential increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on South Korean exports to the U.S. poses a significant risk to the South Korean economy, which relies heavily on exports [1][2] - The Bank of Korea has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8% due to the impact of U.S. trade actions [2] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - President Lee Jae-myung has committed to revitalizing the sluggish economy and improving living standards, with the establishment of an emergency economic task force as a priority [2] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market while respecting market principles and protecting consumers, amid rising housing prices and household debt concerns [2] - The recent stock market performance, with the KOSPI index rising approximately 25% since the previous administration, reflects market optimism regarding pro-business policies [3][4] Group 3: International Relations - President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the importance of restoring dialogue with North Korea and improving relations with China and Russia [1] - Humanitarian aid to North Korea is part of the strategy to enhance the living conditions of its citizens [2] - Lee expressed a desire for improved relations with Japan, despite ongoing territorial disputes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 5% [1] Group 1 - The adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook on China's economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 5% [1] Group 1 - The adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook on China's economic recovery [1] - The new forecast indicates a potential increase in investment opportunities within the Chinese market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow down due to tariffs, with a 40% chance of recession in the near future [1] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, down from the earlier forecast of 2% [1] - The impact of tariff increases is cited as the reason for the downward revision of this year's GDP growth expectations [1] Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, attributing this to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1] - The firm anticipates that policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including those of emerging markets [1] - A forecast of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected between December and spring 2026 [1] - If a recession or a more significant economic slowdown occurs, a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle may be triggered [1] Stock Market Perspective - Despite the uncertainties in policy, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy [1]

金十数据6月16日讯，瑞士政府：预计2025年国内生产总值（体育赛事调整后）将增长1.3%（之前预测 为1.4%），2026年国内生产总值（体育赛事调整后）将增长1.2%（之前预测为1.6%）。预计2025年消 费者价格指数为0.1%（之前预测为0.3%），预计2026年消费者价格指数为0.5%（之前预测为0.6%）。 预测假设国际贸易冲突不会进一步升级。 瑞士政府下调GDP增长预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia and Thailand, are implementing large-scale economic stimulus plans to mitigate the impact of high U.S. tariffs on their economies [1][2]. Group 1: Indonesia's Economic Stimulus - Indonesia has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period [2]. - The Indonesian economy is facing challenges, with a GDP growth of only 4.87% year-on-year in the first quarter, the weakest since Q3 2021 [2]. - The Indonesian government expects the economic growth rate to stabilize around 5% in the second quarter, supported by fiscal measures [2]. Group 2: Thailand's Economic Response - Thailand's government has approved an economic stimulus plan with a budget of 157 billion Thai baht, focusing on community economy, tourism, agriculture, infrastructure, and low-interest loans for small businesses [3]. - The Thai economy is also under pressure from weak domestic demand and high household debt, alongside external challenges such as ongoing trade wars [3]. Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - The region is experiencing a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Thailand's growth forecast lowered from 3%-3.5% to 1.8% by the World Bank and IMF [4]. - Malaysia's central bank has indicated that economic growth may fall below the previously predicted range of 4.5%-5.5% due to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [4]. - The Philippines reported a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, below the government's target of 6%-8% [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Southeast Asia are responding to economic pressures, with the Philippines expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points due to reduced inflation and uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [5]. - Malaysia is also anticipated to cut interest rates for the first time since May 2023, while providing additional loan guarantees for SMEs affected by U.S. tariffs [5]. - Vietnam is considering extending a VAT reduction measure to support economic growth, which may lead to significant tax revenue losses in the coming years [5]. Group 5: Concerns Over Stimulus Measures - Experts express concerns that excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus could have adverse effects, such as widening the income gap and increasing household debt levels [6][7]. - In Thailand, the cancellation of a digital wallet plan has led to public disappointment, highlighting the potential political ramifications of economic policy changes [7]. - Vietnam's extension of VAT reductions raises concerns about future tax revenue losses, with projected losses of approximately 39.5 trillion Vietnamese dong in the second half of 2025 and 82.2 trillion in 2026 [7].