GDP增长预测
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9月17日汇市晚评:欧洲央行副行长表示当前利率是合适的 欧元/美元创4年新高至1.1878
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-17 09:40
Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with various currencies showing mixed trends against the US dollar, while key economic indicators and central bank decisions are influencing market sentiment. Group 1: US Dollar Developments - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks on the job market may indicate future policy directions [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that if President Trump views inflation as a problem, he would be open to interest rate hikes [2] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett anticipates economic growth rates exceeding 3% [2] - Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 2%, up from 1.3% [2] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Movements - The euro against the US dollar reached a new high of 1.1878, the highest since September 2021 [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, with Governing Council member Escrivá emphasizing the need for flexibility amid ongoing uncertainty [4] - The ECB's Vice President Guindos stated that current interest rates are appropriate [5] Group 3: Canadian and Japanese Currency Insights - The swap market indicates a 93% probability of the Bank of Canada cutting rates, up from 87% prior to the CPI release [5] - Japan's auction of 20-year government bonds saw a subscription rate of 4.00, the highest since 2020 [5] - The offshore Chinese yuan broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently above the 200-period SMA at approximately 1.3480, indicating long-term bullish dominance [8] - The USD/JPY is fluctuating between the Bollinger Bands' middle and lower bands, with potential for a short-term bullish reversal if it breaks above the middle band [9] - The EUR/USD has a key support level at 1.1850, which may trigger buying interest if tested again [9] - The USD/CHF is currently below both the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, indicating short-term bearish momentum [9] - The AUD/USD has a significant support level at 0.6630, which could attract buying interest if approached [10] - The USD/CAD has a critical support level at 1.3680, which may also draw market attention if tested [10] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a press conference at 21:45 [11] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook at 02:00, followed by a press conference by Chair Powell at 02:30 [11]
巴克莱:欧洲银行料按兵不动并上调明年GDP预测
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-11 04:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.01% as of the latest update [1] - Barclays economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.0% on September 11 to address changing risk considerations [1] - The ECB is likely to reiterate that the risks to growth prospects are skewed to the downside, particularly due to the negative demand shock from US tariffs, although the risk of EU retaliation has dissipated [1] Group 2 - The ECB may revise its average GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 1.2%, while lowering the 2026 forecast from 1.1% to 1.0% [1] - The daily chart shows the Euro to USD Bollinger Bands with the middle band at 1.1669, indicating the price is testing around this level [2] - The MACD indicates limited momentum with a slight convergence of the lines near the zero axis, suggesting a sideways trend [2]
汇丰上调中国2025年及2026年GDP增长预测。
news flash· 2025-08-04 07:04
Core Viewpoint - HSBC has raised its GDP growth forecasts for China for the years 2025 and 2026, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy [1] Group 1 - HSBC's new forecast suggests a stronger recovery trajectory for China's economy, reflecting improved economic conditions and policy support [1] - The adjustment in GDP growth predictions highlights HSBC's confidence in China's economic resilience and potential for growth in the coming years [1]
国际货币基金组织维持波兰GDP增长预测
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-01 08:05
Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Poland's GDP growth rate to reach 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, consistent with earlier predictions [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slightly improve, with a projected increase of 1% in 2025, largely driven by Ireland's significant contribution [1] - Ireland is anticipated to account for half of the Eurozone's growth due to record-high pharmaceutical exports to the United States, supported by increased inventory and new factory constructions [1] Group 2 - Without Ireland's contribution, the Eurozone's GDP growth for this year is expected to be only 0.1 percentage points [1] - The IMF also projects the Eurozone's GDP growth to reach 1.2% in 2026, maintaining previous forecasts [1]
7月31日电,巴克莱将2025年欧元区GDP增长预测从之前的0.8%上调至1.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-31 11:59
Core Viewpoint - Barclays has revised its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 from 0.8% to 1.1% [1] Economic Outlook - The upward adjustment in GDP growth indicates a more optimistic economic outlook for the Eurozone [1]
7月30日汇市晚评:澳大利亚核心通胀降温支持8月降息 澳元/美元未形成超买或超卖信号
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-30 09:43
Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index is positioned above the 50-day EMA, which has become an immediate support level [1] - The Australian core inflation cooling supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's potential rate cut in August [3] - Deutsche Bank retracts its prediction for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank, betting on a rate hike by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The IMF raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.8% to 1.9% [2] - Goldman Sachs upgraded its growth forecast for the Eurozone, expecting a 1.1% growth rate in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 1% [3] - Chile's central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to 4.75% from 5.0% [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index (DXY) maintains a steady upward channel, with prices above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [4] - The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its downward trend, with the 20-day SMA acting as dynamic resistance around 1.1690 [4] - The AUD/USD pair faces immediate resistance at the 0.6550 level, with potential upward movement if it breaks the 0.6600 mark [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released includes the US ADP employment numbers and Q2 GDP annualized rate [5][6] - The Canadian central bank will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report [5][6]
澳新银行将越南2025年GDP增长预测从5.5%上调至6.8%。
news flash· 2025-07-29 07:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that ANZ Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 from 5.5% to 6.8% [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the GDP growth forecast indicates a more optimistic outlook for Vietnam's economic performance in the coming years [1] - This revision may reflect positive economic indicators and potential growth drivers within the Vietnamese economy [1] - The increase in the forecast suggests that ANZ Bank expects stronger economic activity and resilience in Vietnam despite global economic challenges [1]
渣打银行将其对越南2025年GDP增长的预测从6.7%下调至6.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-25 03:20
Group 1 - Standard Chartered Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 from 6.7% to 6.1% [1]
7月25日电,渣打银行将其对越南2025年GDP增长的预测从6.7%下调至6.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-25 03:18
Group 1 - Standard Chartered Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 from 6.7% to 6.1% [1]
渣打银行将对越南2025年GDP增长的预测从6.7%下调至6.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-25 03:17
Group 1 - Standard Chartered Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 from 6.7% to 6.1% [1]