东吴证券近日发布建筑材料行业跟踪周报：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为343.8元/吨， 较上周-3.3元/吨，较2024年同期-46.2元/吨。较上周价格持平的地区：泛京津冀地区、两广 地区、华北地区、东北地区；较上周价格上涨的地区：中南地区（+1.7元/吨）；较上周价 格下跌的地区：长三角地区（-5.0元/吨）、长江流域地区（-4.3元/吨）、华东地区（-2.9元/ 吨）、西南地区（-16.0元/吨）、西北地区（-2.0元/吨）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（2025.7.14–2025.7.18，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅-0.23%，同期沪 深300、万得全A指数涨跌幅分别为1.09%、1.40%，超额收益分别为-1.32%、-1.63%。 3、玻璃：随着行业重回大面积亏损的状态，我们认为供给侧的收缩将加快，有望改善 中短期行业供需平衡，考虑前期社会库存也得到一定程度消化，短期价格有望呈现企稳反弹 的态势。中期可关注反内卷政策导向下产业政策或行业自律措施对过剩产能退出的潜在影 响，我们认为供给收缩幅度以及需求的韧性将决定后续价格反弹持续性和空间。浮法玻璃龙 头享有硅砂等资源等中长期成本优势，享受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from increased fixed asset investments to stabilize economic expectations, particularly with the launch of major hydropower projects [3][4] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, but overall demand is stabilizing, with an average shipment rate of 46% [11][17] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in valuations for leading companies in the sector due to improved supply-demand dynamics and ongoing industry consolidation [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector saw a slight decline of 0.23% in the past week, underperforming the broader market indices [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting demand in the construction materials sector [3][4] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national average price for high-standard cement is 343.8 yuan/ton, down 3.3 yuan from last week and down 46.2 yuan from the same period last year [18][19] - The average cement inventory level is 65.8%, with a shipment rate of 45.9%, reflecting a slight increase in demand [27] - The report anticipates that the industry's profit center will be better than last year due to enhanced self-discipline among leading companies [4][11] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The report notes a clear trend towards upgrading electronic glass fiber products, with high-end products expected to see increased market penetration [12] - The profitability of ordinary glass fiber remains resilient, supported by growth in domestic demand from sectors like wind power and thermoplastics [12] - Leading companies are expected to benefit from improved product structures and market conditions, with recommendations for companies like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology [12][13] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is expected to see a supply-side contraction, which may improve the short-term supply-demand balance [13] - The report suggests that leading companies in the float glass sector will benefit from resource advantages and potential excess profit opportunities [13] 2.4 Renovation and Building Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies on domestic demand for renovation materials, with expectations for continued growth in consumer confidence [14] - Recommendations include companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, such as Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home [14][15] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report discusses the ongoing policy environment and its implications for the construction materials sector, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to changing market conditions [4][14] - The report also tracks the performance of various companies within the sector, providing insights into their financial metrics and market positioning [15][16]

2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 通信 业 研 《英伟达将恢复 H20 在华销售，核心 利好 AIDC 链—行业点评报告》- 2025.7.15 《算力公司业绩亮眼，Grok-4 发布， AWS 推出 GB200 UltraServers，看好 全球 AIDC 产业链—行业周报》- 2025.7.13 《AI 驱动光铜共进，AEC 等受益于 高速短距连接需求—行业深度报告》 -2025.7.8 海外 AI 或估值提升，国内 AI 迎基本面拐点 ——行业周报 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 雷星宇（联系人） | 陈光毅（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | jiangying@kysec.cn | leixingyu@kysec.cn | chenguangyi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | 证书编号：S0790124040002 | 证书编号：S0790124020006 | 算力 ...

证券研究报告 2025年07月19日 策略报告：投资策略专题 连板空间与主题投资的短期胜率&赔率 产业赛道与主题投资风向标 作者： 分析师 吴开达 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524030001 分析师 肖峰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524040003 重点主题：（1）AIDC：政策需求共振带来高景气，算力链业绩有望超预期。（2）城市更新：城市工作会议在京举行，推进城市更新成为重要抓手。（3）稳定币：全 球稳定币监管框架加速成型，人民币国际化迎来新抓手。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 摘要 周思考：连板空间（最高连板数量）是反应市场短线情绪的重要指标之一。我们复盘了2020年1月1日到2025年6月30日连板空间与后续市场表现，归纳了不同连板高度 与主题投资的胜率&赔率。我们根据连板数量不同，将连板空间划分为情绪冰点期（2-3板）、混沌轮动期（4-6板）、主线上升期（7-9板）和市场高潮期（10板及以 上），并用小盘相对全A收益率来表征主题投资收益率。整体而言，当处于市场高潮期时主题投资的短期胜率&赔率占优，其次是混沌轮动期。但考虑中期表现（20个交 易日），主线上升期则优于混沌轮动期。 ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes boosting domestic consumption as a key economic task for 2025, addressing unreasonable restrictions and optimizing trade-in policies[2] - Concerns arise over the effectiveness of consumption policies due to recent retail sales data falling short of expectations, prompting government action to stabilize market confidence[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump indicates potential drug tariffs by the end of July, with a unified 10% tariff possibly affecting 150 countries[3] - Ongoing trade negotiations with India may lead to agreements before August 1, highlighting trade policy as a significant uncertainty for global markets[3] Technological Advancements and Investments - AI's next wave is expected to focus on robotic systems, enhancing human-machine collaboration in manufacturing over the next decade[4] - Meta plans to invest several hundred billion dollars in AI, aiming to lead in the deployment of large-scale AI infrastructure[4] Energy Sector Insights - National power load in China reaches a record high of 1.506 billion kilowatts, reflecting a 0.55 million kilowatt increase from last year, indicating strong energy demand[4] - The growth in renewable energy generation capacity, particularly in wind and solar, is anticipated to continue at a rapid pace[4] Market Performance Metrics - The latest 10-year government bond yield stands at 1.662%, with a slight change of 0.13 basis points[6] - The DR007 rate is reported at 1.529%, showing a decrease of 4.05 basis points[6] Stock Market Trends - Recent data shows a market turnover of 146.17 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.26%[15] - The financing balance as of July 15, 2025, is reported at 187.73 billion yuan, indicating market liquidity trends[15] Industry Performance Highlights - The top three performing sectors are social services, automotive, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, reflecting current investment interests[18] - Net capital inflows are highest in light manufacturing, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors, indicating investor confidence in these areas[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions in U.S.-China relations[28]

黄仁勋来华，H20有望解禁，市场对算力基建的热情又被引爆了。 今日，AIDC柴发个股潍柴重机再度涨停，实现3连板，最新报45.78元/股，股价再创历史新高，总市值为151.7亿元。 自去年9月24日以来，潍柴重机累计涨超441%，从最低的8.48元/股涨到45.78元/股，以此计算股价翻了5倍多。 业绩高增 上半年，潍柴重机抓住行业政策支持所带来的增长机遇和新兴产业快速增长引发的需求拉动，积极推动业务结构调整，加大主营产品销售力度，同时强化落 实费用管控措施，业绩实现同比较大增长。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 | 盈利: 13,178.94 万元-15,061.65 万元 | 盈利:9,413.53 万元 | | 东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:40%-60% | | | 归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性 | 盈利: 12,384. 18 万元-14,677.55 万元 | 盈利:9,173.47万元 | | 损益后的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:35%-60% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.39元-0.46元 | 盈利:0 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector and specific companies within this industry Core Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Growth**: The combined revenue of three companies in the AIDC sector for the fiscal year ending in Q2 2025 is reported at 2.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 17% to 18%. The revenue growth rate for Q4 2024 is noted to be 8.6%, indicating a significant increase compared to previous periods [1] 2. **Contract Liabilities**: The total contract liabilities for the three companies amount to 850 million, which is a substantial increase from 540 million in the previous year, indicating nearly a threefold growth [1] 3. **Inventory Levels**: The inventory level stands at 3.76 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, which is higher than the revenue growth rate. This suggests a potential for increased product delivery in Q2 [2] 4. **Profitability Indicators**: The improvement in contract liabilities and inventory levels is expected to lead to high revenue growth and an increase in profit margins for the companies involved [4] 5. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the domestic market is influenced by concerns over global tax center construction slowdowns, but major companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are maintaining high capital expenditure growth [5][6] 6. **Infrastructure Investment**: There is a strong emphasis on continued investment in infrastructure projects, with government support for foundational and industrial data infrastructure projects [6] 7. **Tendering Process**: The tendering process for major companies like Alibaba has been slower than anticipated, but there is optimism regarding upcoming tenders from Tencent and others [9][10] 8. **OEM Environment**: The OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) environment is highlighted as currently the most profitable segment, with strong pricing power [11] 9. **Market Opportunities**: The current market conditions present a good opportunity for investment, especially as the sector has seen a price correction of 10% to 20% [8] 10. **Performance Expectations**: There is an expectation that the performance of the AIDC companies will exceed conservative market expectations in Q2 and Q3, with potential profit catalysts emerging [15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Price Trends**: The price of scattered orders has reportedly exceeded 3.5 million, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics within the industry [13] 2. **AI Development Impact**: The ongoing development of AI is noted as a significant factor influencing industry trends and sentiment [14] 3. **Company-Specific Performance**: Companies like KOTAI and Taihao are mentioned as having strong positions within the industry, with expectations for their performance to be closely monitored [12]

Summary of AITC Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The AITC industry is currently in a phase of digesting existing capacity, leading to revenue growth but a decline in net profit and net profit margin [1] - The IDC industry experienced a cloud computing boom in 2020, resulting in overcapacity and a price war, but has shown signs of recovery since 2022 [3] Key Company Insights - **Runze Technology**: In 2024, four buildings totaling approximately 120 MW underwent upgrades from conventional 5-7 kW to high-power configurations [1] - **Office Data**: In 2020, revenue grew by 62% with EBITDA reaching approximately 830 million, a 39% increase. By the end of 2024, 190 MW was operational, with an expectation to reach 340 MW by year-end [2] - **Guanghuan Xinnet**: Experienced a revenue decline of 7.3% in 2014, primarily due to the impact of Amazon's cloud computing business [2] - **AIDC Sample Companies**: From 2018 to 2022, fixed asset total KGR was around 23%, increasing to 25% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a recovery from the industry's low point [3] Financial Performance - The AIT upstream industry saw a revenue increase of 12.6% in 2024, with operating profit rising by 30% [6] - AIDC's upstream ROE increased year-on-year, indicating improved capacity utilization [9] - In Q1 2025, inventory growth reached 47%, reflecting strong downstream demand [9] Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to see a construction boom that will continue until 2026, with significant new projects underway [4] - The pricing environment is anticipated to improve as high-quality resources in Beijing and surrounding areas are consumed [5] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify due to the cancellation of domestic strong配政策, but market share may consolidate around leading players like Inwin and others [7] Future Projections - By the end of 2026, an estimated capacity of 550-560 MW is expected to be operational [2][10] - The valuation for companies in the IDC sector is projected to be attractive, with potential EBITDA multiples of 25-26 times for companies like Aofei Data [10] - The anticipated net profit for 2027 is projected at approximately 4.28 billion [12] Additional Insights - The cooling and power supply segment is expected to benefit from increased demand, with companies like Inwin and others poised for growth [13] - The trend towards higher power cabinets is evident, with companies upgrading their infrastructure to accommodate this shift [13] Conclusion - The AITC industry is navigating a complex landscape of capacity management and market recovery, with promising growth opportunities and evolving competitive dynamics. Investors are encouraged to monitor developments closely as the industry progresses towards 2026 and beyond [14]

Summary of AIDC Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the valuation of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) companies and their market potential, comparing AIDC with traditional IDC (Internet Data Center) [1][2] Key Insights - **No Clear Ceiling for AIDC Growth**: The current demand for AIDC is expected to continue growing as long as the demand for AI chips and servers increases. The AI development is still in its early stages, making it difficult to predict a ceiling for AIDC demand [2][3] - **Three Major Transformations in AIDC**: 1. Significant changes in power supply 2. Major advancements in cooling technology 3. Potential for drastically reduced delivery times [1] - **Revenue Model**: AIDC companies generate revenue primarily through rental income multiplied by their capacity, which includes cabinet numbers and power density. Current rental prices are stable with potential for long-term growth [4][5] - **Effective Capacity is Key**: The effective capacity of AIDC facilities, influenced by geographic location and customer structure, is crucial for valuation and future growth [5][9] - **Valuation Methodology**: Traditional PE (Price to Earnings) ratios may not be suitable for AIDC companies due to their stable cash flow characteristics. AIDC companies are likened to REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in terms of cash flow stability [6][7] Market Dynamics - **Concentration of Demand**: Major demand for AIDC services is concentrated among large tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, with the fastest growth coming from AI server deployments [8][10] - **Energy Consumption Regulations**: The ability to secure energy consumption indicators is critical for AIDC projects, especially with increasing regulations on green energy usage [10][11] Company-Specific Insights - **Company Valuations**: - **GDS Holdings**: Projected EBITDA of over 8 billion with a potential EV of 160 billion based on a 20x EV/EBITDA multiple [12] - **CenturyLink**: Estimated EBITDA of over 5 billion, leading to an EV of over 100 billion [13] - **New H3C Group**: Focused on AI applications with high pricing, contributing to its unique market position [14] - **Guanghuan Xinwang**: High retail IDC prices due to strategic locations, with projected EBITDA of over 2.5 billion [15] - **David Technology**: Current EBITDA of 4-5 billion with future projects expected to enhance growth [16] Future Considerations - **Chip Demand Correlation**: The demand for AIDC is closely tied to the progress of chip development. As chip availability improves, AIDC demand is expected to rise correspondingly [19] - **Monitoring Market Trends**: Continuous tracking of chip advancements and AIDC project developments is essential for understanding future market dynamics and company valuations [19] Conclusion - The AIDC industry presents significant growth potential driven by AI advancements and stable demand from major tech players. Effective capacity and energy consumption management will be critical for the success of AIDC companies in the evolving market landscape [11][20]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **IDC (Internet Data Center)** industry and its current market dynamics [1][5][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustments**: The initial adjustments in the IDC sector are attributed to increasingly pessimistic expectations from IDC, which may impact this year's deliveries and launches. The current year's launches and deliveries are primarily based on last year's bidding [1]. 2. **Revenue Guidance**: World Internet announced an upward revision of its revenue guidance, citing two main factors: faster-than-expected ramp-up from wholesale IDC customers and improved internal operational efficiency [2]. 3. **AI Impact on Growth**: The ramp-up speed for projects in the AI era is expected to be significantly faster than in previous years, with current observations indicating a ramp-up period of less than six months, contrary to earlier expectations of one year [3]. 4. **Potential Relief in Q3**: There is an expectation that the card issue may be clarified in Q3, which could lead to a positive catalyst for the market. If major companies receive clear guidance on card availability, it could restore normal bidding rhythms in the IDC sector [4]. 5. **Historical Context**: The IDC industry has experienced a downturn from 2021 to mid-2024, characterized by a supply-demand imbalance. During this period, IDC company valuations were relatively low, with EBITDA multiples around 10x, while companies like Aofei maintained higher valuations around 15x [5]. 6. **Valuation Trends**: Currently, many domestic A-share IDC companies are valued around 20x EBITDA. Recent recovery trends have seen companies like Guanghuan and Runze reaching similar multiples, indicating that valuations are approaching the lower end of a normal cycle [6][7]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: The current market conditions suggest that it is not necessary to be overly pessimistic. The IDC sector is nearing a normal valuation cycle, and upcoming catalysts in Q3 could provide investment opportunities. Companies recommended for focus include Runze, Guanghuan, and Aofei [7][9]. 8. **Reporting Characteristics**: The IDC industry's revenue recognition is delayed until after customer launches, which means that while profits may not be the primary focus now, revenue and EBITDA should be closely monitored. Q2 is expected to show improvements, with Q3 and Q4 likely reflecting significant revenue and EBITDA growth from projects won last year [8][9]. Other Important Insights - The call emphasized the importance of monitoring the timing of project deliveries and the relationship between bidding cycles and stock price movements in the IDC sector [7][9]. - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on the potential for recovery and growth in the IDC industry as it navigates through current challenges [6][7].