7月31日周四上午，日本央行宣布维持基准利率不变，并上调了今明两年的通胀预期。 他强调，将密切关注通胀上行风险，不会等到基础通胀率稳定在2%左右再加息，而是取决于基础通胀率达到该水平的可能性。 午后，日本央行行长植田和男召开新闻发布会，表示如果经济和物价走势符合预测，将继续加息。 谨慎看待贸易协议带来的乐观前景 尽管美日已达成贸易政策，但植田和男仍强调贸易局势存在不确定性，基础通胀率仍低于该行2%的目标： "由于美日达成贸易协定，围绕日本经济的不确定性有所消退。但我们的基准预测并未改变，即由于经济增长放缓，潜在通胀将在一段时间内停滞 不前。各国贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高。" 植田和男补充称，日本并非处于有利或不利地位，但要从关税带来的更高成本角度看待关税的影响，希望能在更多硬性数据中观察这一影响。 植田和男还提及，目前日元汇率并未大幅偏离日本央行的预期，不会对物价前景有重大影响。 植田和男讲话期间，美元兑日元持续拉升，现已收复此前全部跌幅，报149.47。 他指出，几乎可以确定的是，"某种程度的高关税"将会生效，因此需要关注企业转嫁成本的趋势。 关注食品通胀回落趋势 植田和男强调，紧缩的货币对需求驱动型通胀有 ...

本周四，在美联储早间决定维持利率不变后，日本央行也紧随其后，一致决定维持利率不变。 不过与美联储不同的是，日本央行还对外释放了鹰派信号：如果未来日本经济和通胀的增长符合其预 测，它将在未来加息。此外，日本央行还上调了2025年的通胀和经济增长预期。 日本央行按兵不动 释放鹰派信号 日本央行表示，由于日本的实际利率仍处于"非常低的水平"，如果其经济预测实现，它将"继续提高政 策利率，调整货币宽松程度"。 在日本央行发出的鹰派信号影响下，日元大幅走强，美元兑日元汇率下跌0.5%，至148.74日元。日本股 市保持乐观，日经225指数上涨近0.6%。 早在7月初，日本央行植田和男就发出过同样的信号，令市场对央行可能发出的鹰派信号早有防备。北 京时间周四14:30，植田和男将在新闻发布会上发表讲话，其对于未来前景的表述值得关注。 总体而言，日本央行此次的决议基本没有出乎外界预期。因为一周前，日本首相石破茂领导的执政党刚 刚失去参议院多数席位，因此外界早已有普遍预期，在日本当前政治前景不确定性加剧的背景下，日本 央行本月将会按兵不动。 日本央行将基准政策利率维持在0.5%不变，货币政策委员会的所有九名成员都支持这一决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that there is no clear prescription for raising interest rates amid a slowdown in inflation [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is facing challenges in determining the appropriate timing for interest rate hikes due to the current inflation trends [1]

新华财经北京7月31日电（崔凯）日本央行（BOJ）如期维持基准利率不变，将隔夜拆借利率继续锚定 在0.5%。尽管未采取进一步加息行动，央行在最新发布的经济展望报告中大幅上调了未来两年的通胀 预期，幅度超出市场普遍预期，引发市场对年内可能再度加息的猜测。 在会后新闻发布会上，日本央行行长植田和男就货币政策、通胀前景、工资增长及外部风险等议题发表 讲话，整体基调谨慎中透露出对通胀持续性改善的信心。 植田和男强调，尽管潜在通胀正在"逐步上升"，但目前仍低于2%的目标水平。他指出："潜在通胀并未 因关税问题而陷入停滞阶段，关键在于其是否更有可能持续接近2%。" 他还表示，经济增长放缓可能 导致潜在通胀下行，因此必须密切关注数据演变。 他强调，政策不会仅基于新的消费者物价指数预测而调整，"仅修正2025财年价格预期不会影响政策"。 同时，央行将继续与政府保持密切协调，但不会直接评论财政政策。 植田评估当前日本经济"虽存在一些疲软状况，但正在适度复苏"。他对日美贸易协议给予积极评价，称 其"降低了日本经济前景的不确定性"，是"一个重大进展"。 然而，他也警告全球经济不确定性依然很高，若海外因贸易政策导致经济放缓、企业利润 ...

当被问及如果陷入落后于曲线的情况下加息步伐是否会加快时，日本央行行长植田和男表示，如果情况 属实，那就会。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男表示，若经济展望实现将会加息。 ...

【导读】日本央行如期维持利率不变，上调今年通胀和经济增长预期 7月31日，日本央行公布利率决议，决定维持利率在0.5%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。 日前，日本与美国贸易协议等贸易政策取得进展。特朗普称，根据这项协议，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，美国将获得投资利润的90%。 日本将向美国开放汽车、卡车、大米及某些其他农产品和商品市场，美国将对日本输美产品征收15%的关税。 日本央行重申，如果经济和物价发展符合日本央行的预期，未来将提高利率，但未明确未来加息时间表。 对于后续加息的时机，各家机构观点相对一致，10月加息成普遍共识。 汇丰银行预计，贸易协议或促使日本央行货币政策重回正轨，10月或加息25个基点至0.75%。 日本央行决议前，美元兑日元一度逼近150关口，日内跌0.45%。日本央行维持利率不变后，美元兑日元短线走高，现报148.90。 日本央行同时上调了核心CPI预期。该央行预计，潜在消费者通胀率可能在2025财年到2027年预测期的下半年达到与2%目标基本一致的水 平。2025~2027财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%，此前预期分别为2.2%、1.7%和1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its inflation and economic growth forecasts for the year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ has kept the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, which was anticipated by the market [2][4]. - Following the decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw a short-term increase, reported at 148.90 [4]. Inflation Forecast - The BOJ has revised its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts upward, expecting potential consumer inflation to align with the 2% target in the latter half of the fiscal years 2025 to 2027. The new median core CPI forecasts for these years are 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, compared to previous forecasts of 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.9% [4]. Economic Growth Outlook - The BOJ has also increased its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025, adjusting the GDP growth expectation from 0.5% to 0.6% [4]. Economic Risks - The BOJ noted that the economic outlook carries downside risks, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies. Despite a mild recovery in the Japanese economy, some weaknesses persist [5]. - Recent progress in trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. is highlighted, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [5]. Future Rate Hikes - There is a consensus among various institutions that a rate hike in October is likely, with HSBC predicting a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [6]. - Other institutions, such as the Netherlands International and Mizuho Bank, also view October as a potential time for a rate hike, with Mizuho suggesting it could be the last hike of the year [7]. - The BOJ Governor is scheduled to hold a press conference to explain the rate decision, indicating ongoing communication regarding monetary policy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% while raising its inflation forecast, indicating a potential shift towards interest rate hikes in the near future [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The BOJ has increased its average inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1]. - The BOJ has also slightly raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [1][4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The BOJ's monetary policy committee has assessed the overall risk of inflation to be balanced, suggesting a readiness to consider interest rate hikes if conditions allow [4][8]. - The central bank's latest report indicates that trade uncertainties have decreased, allowing for a more focused evaluation of the economic impact of tariffs [6][8]. Market Reactions - Following the BOJ's announcement, the Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, and the yield on 2-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points to 0.835% [4][6]. - The BOJ's adjustments in inflation expectations are driven by rising food prices, particularly rice, which have contributed to Japan having one of the highest inflation rates among G7 countries [6][8].

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan has raised its CPI forecast for 2026, but the increase is moderate, indicating a cautious stance on inflation risks [1] - Despite the current inflation levels justifying a hawkish approach, the Bank of Japan remains vigilant regarding global risks, particularly U.S. tariff policies [1] - There is significant uncertainty in trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. due to differing interpretations of tariff agreements [1] - Domestic political instability in Japan adds to the uncertainty, allowing the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda to adopt either a dovish or hawkish stance based on external and internal factors [1]