【导读】美股震荡，中国资产大涨 大家周末好，今晚美股下跌，中概股集体大涨！ 美股震荡 7月18日晚间，美股三大指数走势震荡，道琼斯指数下跌100点，纳斯达克指数以及标普500指数基本持平。 周五公布的数据显示，消费者对关税引发的通胀担忧降至2月以来的最低水平。密歇根大学7月消费者调查显示，整体消费者信心指数环比6月上升 1.8%，达到61.8，符合预期并创下自2月以来最高水平。 消费者预计未来一年物价年涨幅为4.4%，低于上月的5%，为2月以来最低水平；对未来5至10年的通胀预期也降至3.6%，同样是五个月以来的最低值。 不过，对关税的担忧仍在限制消费者对经济前景的乐观情绪。 该项调查的负责人Joanne Hsu在声明中表示："消费者对商业环境、劳动力市场，甚至自身收入的预期，仍然弱于一年前。尽管如此，过去两个月消费 者信心的回升表明，他们认为4月和5月曾预期的最坏情况的风险有所缓解。" 消费者对个人当前财务状况的评价有所上升，这可能受到股市上涨的推动。此次调查于7月14日结束，即美国总统特朗普签署预算法案、延长减税政策 并为小费行业工人新增减税优惠逾一周之后。 不过，Hsu指出，如果宣布加征更多关税或通胀回 ...

周五公布的密歇根大学7月份的报告显示，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心反弹，在7月初升至五个月来的最高水平，人们对经济和通胀的预期持续改善，通 胀预期也显著回落。 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.8，预期61.5，前值60.7。尽管如此，该消费者信心指数仍低于去年全年水平。 分项指数方面，7月密歇根大学消费者的现况指数初值66.8，预期63.9，前值64.8，改善明显；预期指数初值58.6，预期56.9，前值58.1。 不过，如果宣布进一步加征关税或通胀回升，消费者信心可能会受到抑制。 消费者对当前个人财务状况的看法有所改善，可能受益于美国股市的反弹。此次调查于7月14日结束，距美国总统特朗普签署预算案已有一周多时间，该预 算案包括延长减税并为打工小费收入者提供新减免。 此次消费者信心回升主要受到共和党人和政治独立人士信心改善的推动。 消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） 市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.4%，为2月以来的最低，低于预期的5%，前值为5%；5年通胀 ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up with the Dow at +0.12%, S&P 500 at +0.09%, Nasdaq at +0.16%, and Russell 2000 leading at +0.52% [1] Bond Market - Bond yields have remained steady; the 10-year yield is at +4.44%, up 3 basis points from last week, the 2-year yield is at +3.88%, and the 30-year yield is at +5.00% [2] Housing Market - Housing Starts for June are at 1.32 million, slightly above projections, but still historically low, up from 1.256 million the previous month [3] - Building Permits increased to 1.397 million from 1.394 million in May, remaining at low levels compared to January 2022 when permits were close to 2 million [4] Q2 Earnings Reports - 3M reported Q2 earnings of $2.16 per share, beating expectations of $2.01, with revenues of $6.2 billion exceeding forecasts [5] - American Express reported Q2 earnings of $4.08 per share, surpassing the expected $3.86, with revenues of $17.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of +9% [6] - Charles Schwab's Q2 earnings were $1.14 per share on revenues of $5.85 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates, with shares up +5% in pre-market trading [7] Consumer Sentiment - A preliminary print on Consumer Sentiment for July is expected to improve to 61.8 from 60.7, indicating a healthier economic environment [7]

金十数据7月18日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，美国消费者信心与6月相比变化不 大，小幅上升约1个点至61.8。尽管该指数创下五个月新高，但仍比2024年12月低约16%，且远低于历 史平均水平。除非消费者确信通胀不太可能恶化，例如贸易政策在可预见的未来趋于稳定，否则他们不 太可能重新恢复对经济的信心。目前的访谈结果几乎没有显示其他政策变化（包括最近通过的税收和支 出法案）对消费者信心产生明显影响。对未来一年的通胀预期连续第二个月下降，从上月的5.0%跌至 本月的4.4%。长期通胀预期连续第三个月回落，从6月份的4.0%回落至7月份的3.6%。这两个指数都是 自2025年2月以来的最低水平，但仍高于2024年12月，这表明消费者仍然认为未来通胀将上升的风险很 大。 美国7月消费者信心变化不大 通胀预期连续回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has retreated ahead of the consumer confidence data release, following a previous rise to a three-and-a-half-week high due to better-than-expected economic indicators [1] Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience in the US [1] - Initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated, further supporting the notion of a robust economy [1] Market Reactions - The market reacted positively after former President Trump denied reports of attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleviating some concerns [1] - The primary focus for the market is the upcoming release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey scheduled for tonight at 22:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive rebound in U.S. retail sales may alleviate concerns regarding a decline in consumer spending [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Out of 13 retail categories, 10 experienced growth, indicating a broad recovery in the sector [1] - Automotive sales rebounded after a period of decline, serving as a major driving force behind the retail sales increase [1] - Restaurant spending, the only service category included in the report, grew by 0.6%, contributing to the overall positive trend [1] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - There has been a general pessimism among Americans regarding the economy and their financial situation, exacerbated by tariffs and ongoing cost-of-living pressures [1] - Recent reports indicate a rebound in consumer confidence, providing a more optimistic outlook amidst previous concerns about consumer health [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates signs of economic weakness, highlighting a fragile consumer confidence despite some rising commodity prices [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - Airfare prices have decreased by 3.5% over the past 12 months [1] - The increase in auto insurance prices is only 6.1%, marking the smallest rise since June 2022, following significant increases in recent years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) CEO anticipates improvement in consumer and business confidence in the second quarter due to ongoing trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The CEO's statement reflects optimism regarding the economic outlook as trade talks progress [1]

Core Insights - Amazon extended its annual Prime Day from two days to four days, betting that a longer promotional period would allow consumers more time to browse its vast selection of discounted products. However, initial results indicate a significant drop in sales, raising concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Momentum Commerce reported a 41% year-over-year decline in sales on the first day of Prime Day (July 16) [1]. - The CEO of Momentum Commerce noted that the extended promotional period led to a "browsing" behavior among consumers, who added items to their carts but delayed purchases in anticipation of better discounts [1]. - If hesitant consumers convert to actual purchases in the following days, total sales during the four-day event could still see a 9.1% increase compared to last year's two-day event [1]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Approximately 65% of purchased items were priced below $20, with only 3% exceeding $100. The most popular items included household essentials like Dawn dish soap and Premier protein powder [3]. - The average household spending on the first day decreased from $110 last year to $106 this year, while the average price per item dropped from $28 to $25.46 [3]. - Consumers appeared to favor lower-priced items this year, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [3]. Group 3: Market Context - Amazon's Prime Day has become a barometer for consumer confidence, especially in light of economic uncertainties stemming from trade tensions [2]. - The promotional event coincided with similar multi-day sales from competitors like Walmart and Target, intensifying the online shopping frenzy [3]. - Adobe Inc. reported that U.S. consumers spent $7.9 billion online on the first day of Prime Day, marking a 9.9% increase compared to the same day last year, with total spending for the four-day event expected to reach $23.8 billion [3].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts Guillaume Delmas and Silvia Xu indicate that despite a slowdown in the overall beauty industry, L'Oréal is expected to achieve sequential growth [1] Group 1: Sales Growth - Analysts forecast a 2.9% organic sales growth for L'Oréal in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Market Insights - In the Chinese market, a key indicator remains consumer confidence, which is currently moving in a positive direction [1] - In the U.S. market, consumer attitudes are becoming more cautious due to ongoing concerns about potential inflation resurgence [1]