Group 1 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose from -20 to -18 in June, reaching its highest level since December 2024, aligning with market expectations [1] - Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insight director, warned that consumer confidence remains "fragile" due to rising consumer prices, increased taxes, and signs of a deteriorating labor market [1] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has driven up oil costs, while President Trump's trade war is disrupting international trade [1]

美联储降息概率增加 特朗普政府关税对美国经济的影响尚未体现在通胀数据中。5月美国CPI指数同比上涨2.4%，高于前值 2.3%，符合预期；环比增速为0.1%，低于0.2%的前值，也低于0.2%的预期值。核心CPI同比上涨2.8%， 环比上涨0.1%，低于各自的预期值2.9%和0.3%。5月美国能源价格环比下跌1%，新车和二手车价格下 跌0.3%和0.5%。当月主要拉动物价上涨的因素是食品和房价，环比均上涨0.3%。5月美国房价同比上涨 3.9%，为2021年年末以来的最慢增速。 此前市场预期会因为关税而涨价的分项价格并未出现上涨，反而有所回落。但如果特朗普关税政策对美 国经济确实产生了影响，最终会在未来几个月的通胀、就业、经济增速等数据中体现出来。特朗普政府 的全球"对等关税"90天暂停期将在7月9日结束，因此，在此之前，美联储不太可能仓促放松货币政策。 随着贸易紧张局势的缓和，美国消费者信心六个月来首次有所改善，潜在通胀飙升的悲观情绪也明显减 轻。美国一年期通胀率预期从上月的6.6%降至本月的5.1%，长期通胀预期连续第二个月下降，从5月的 4.2%降至4.1%，这两个指数都是三个月来的最低水平。由于美国通 ...

俄罗斯二季度消费者信心上升至-8。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales declined for the second consecutive month in May, indicating a reduction in consumer spending due to concerns over tariffs and personal finances [1][2] - Retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest drop of the year, with significant declines in auto sales [1][2] - Seven out of thirteen retail categories experienced declines, with building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales leading the downturn [2] Group 2 - The only service sector category in the retail report, restaurant and bar spending, saw the largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [2] - Despite a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China, concerns over potential increases in auto tariffs persist, leading consumers to cut back on spending [3] - The "control group" sales, which exclude certain categories, increased by 0.4% month-over-month, driven by sales in sporting goods, furniture, and clothing [3]

Core Viewpoint - In May, U.S. retail sales experienced the largest decline of the year, indicating that new tariffs have suppressed consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales fell significantly, with 7 out of 13 categories reporting declines [1] - Spending at restaurants and bars saw its largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The data suggests that consumers are beginning to cut back on spending [1] - Despite tariffs not yet increasing U.S. inflation, consumer confidence remains shaky due to rising living costs and high interest rates [1] - Household financial conditions have worsened [1]

白宫和以色列官员表示，以色列对伊朗的行动预计将耗时"数周，而不是数天"，并将得到美国的默许。一位以 色列官员称，特朗普政府在私下讨论中没有批评这一长达数周的时间表。一名白宫官员表示，美国政府知道并 暗中支持以色列的计划。当被问及冲突会持续多久时，这位官员说，这取决于伊朗的反应。这位官员表 示："特朗普政府坚信，这个问题可以通过继续与美国谈判来解决。"他补充称，美国不会指示以色列采取任何 行动，只会保护自己。 当地时间6月15日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，如果伊朗接受美国提出的放弃其核计划的要求，以色列愿意 停止其行动。他还表示，"当我们消除这些能力时，这一切就会结束，我们一定会这样做。"内塔尼亚胡称，以 色列与美国分享了伊朗正在研制核武器的情报："很明显，他们正在制定一项将铀武器化的秘密计划。他们的 进展非常迅速。他们将在几个月内，甚至不到一年的时间内，制造出一个测试装置，甚至可能是一个初始装 置。这就是我们与美国分享的情报。" 行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（6月13日）大幅收涨，开盘价3385.78美元/盎司，最高价3446.77美元/盎司，最低价3378.02美元/ 盎司，收盘价3426.20美元/盎司。 消 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - Israel has reported a new round of missile attacks from Iran, with nearly 100 ballistic missiles launched, resulting in at least 63 injuries, including 2 serious cases [4][6] - In retaliation, Israel has conducted airstrikes on multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran and Isfahan, targeting nuclear facilities [6][4] - The Iranian military has issued threats against Israel, indicating potential severe consequences for the Israeli regime [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a collective decline in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.79% to 42197.79 points, the S&P 500 down 1.13% to 5976.97 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.3% to 19406.83 points [8][7] - Energy stocks have risen due to soaring oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 7.55% to $73.18 per barrel, nearing the peak of $78.48 from June 2022 [11][13] - Gold prices have also rebounded, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48%, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty [13]

通胀预期方面，消费者预计未来一年物价上涨率为5.1%，显著低于5月的6.6%，为自2001年10月以来最大单月 降幅。对于长期通胀，受访者预计未来5至10年年均通胀率为4.1%，较5月略降0.1个百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，随着对经济的担忧缓解、短期通胀预期明显改善，美国消费者信心在6月出现了自2024年 1月以来的最大月度涨幅。 根据密歇根大学周五公布的初步数据，6月消费者信心指数环比跃升8.3点，达到60.5，远高于外媒调查中经济 学家的所有预期。这标志着该指数今年首次上涨，反映出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪有所缓解，尤其是对总 统特朗普推行的保护主义贸易政策的焦虑感减弱。 调查还显示，消费者对经济的预期指数大涨10.5点至58.4，创下自2023年12月以来最大升幅；对当前经济状况 的评估也从58.9上升至63.7，为三个月新高。不过，即便如此，消费者对商业环境、个人财务和大额消费的看 法仍低于去年底的水平。 密歇根大学消费者调查负责人Joanne Hsu指出："消费者似乎已经从4月宣布的高额关税及其后几周的政策动荡 中逐渐平复。但他们仍然认为经济面临广泛的下行风险。" 尽管如此，此番消费者情绪的改善为市 ...

Core Insights - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved for the first time in six months, rising by 16% compared to the previous month, but remains approximately 20% lower than in December 2024, when confidence rebounded post-election [1][1][1] Summary by Categories Consumer Confidence - All five components of the consumer confidence index have increased, with particularly significant gains in short-term and long-term expectations regarding business conditions, aligning with perceptions of eased tariff pressures [1][1] Economic Outlook - Consumers appear to have partially recovered from the impact of high tariffs announced in April and subsequent policy fluctuations, yet they still perceive widespread downside risks to the economy [1][1] Financial Sentiment - Despite the noticeable improvement in economic conditions this month, consumers maintain a cautious and worried outlook regarding the economy, with views on business conditions, personal financial situations, commodity purchasing conditions, labor market, and stock market all significantly lower than six months ago [1][1][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper is expected to continue its volatile pattern for some time, with the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton being closely watched. Favorable factors for bulls include a weak US dollar, inventory reduction, low inventory levels, tight domestic spot supply, and uncertainty over potential tariff hikes in the US 232 investigation. Key bearish factors are the US government's inconsistent tariff stance and the resulting uncertainty in the global economic outlook [1]. - Aluminum is undergoing a weak adjustment. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, leading to increased pressure on spot inventory. The reduction in bauxite price support has caused alumina prices to adjust based on cost. Aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but the speed of turnover and inventory reduction has slowed down. The price of aluminum alloy may fluctuate around the Baotai price in the short - term [1][2]. - Nickel is expected to remain range - bound. Although the cost of raw materials is firm and the fundamentals of primary nickel are improving, upward movement is restricted by weak downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper fell 0.45% to $9,725/ton, and SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.13% to 79,030 yuan/ton. Domestic spot imports are in a continuous loss. In May, US consumers' inflation expectations declined for the first time since 2024, and consumer confidence improved. China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. LME copper inventory decreased to 120,400 tons, Comex copper inventory increased to 173,215 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 33,746 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts increased to 804 tons. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand orders are gradually slowing down [1]. Aluminum - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract AD2511 closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 4.49%. Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AO2509 closing at 2,888 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Shanghai aluminum also showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AL2507 closing at 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,262 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium was 70 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and inventory pressure is increasing. The reduction in bauxite price support has led to an adjustment in alumina prices based on cost. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the arrival of aluminum ingots has decreased, but the speed of inventory reduction has slowed down [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,330/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 121,360 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased to 198,126 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased to 21,041 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices are firm, and domestic nickel - iron transaction prices show a slight rebound. In the stainless - steel sector, raw material prices are stable, and inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Production cuts in China and Indonesia in June will gradually ease the overall oversupply situation, but in the medium - term, it will still be constrained by weak terminal demand. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is little new demand in June. In June, the supply of primary nickel continued to decline month - on - month, and domestic weekly inventory decreased [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 119 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also increased. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,672 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) remained unchanged [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the prices of recycled lead products also rose. The price of lead concentrate at the factory increased by 100 yuan/ton in some areas. - Inventory: LME lead inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened. The price of some aluminum alloy products decreased, and the processing fee of some downstream aluminum products increased. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the social inventory of alumina increased by 4.1 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some stainless - steel products also declined. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of new - energy nickel products decreased. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 966 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 151 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel decreased by 2,178 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The main settlement price of zinc decreased by 1.2%, and the prices of spot zinc and zinc alloy products dropped. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons, SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main settlement price of tin increased by 0.3%, and the spot price and the price of tin concentrate rose. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 735 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2025. These charts visually display the historical trends of relevant data [7][8][13][20][26][32][39]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won multiple industry awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a focus on lithium and nickel research [47].