8月7日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率25个基点至4%。 货币政策委员会分歧巨大 决议公布后，英镑兑美元短线拉升约30点，现报1.3411。交易员减少对英国央行降息押注，预计今年将再降息17个基点。 为何降息？ 英国央行在声明中表示，在限制性货币政策立场的支持下，过去两年半通胀情况持续缓解，因此该央行已经多次下调利率。货币政策委员会仍专注于消除 任何现有或新出现的持续通胀压力，以在中期内可持续地使通胀率恢复到2%的目标。 数据显示，英国6月通胀水平（消费物价指数CPI）上涨3.6%，略高于5月报告和委员会6月会议时的预期。其中，食品、能源和服务价格都出现了上涨。 但英国央行强调，潜在的国内价格和工资压力的下降路径仍在继续，尽管程度不同。由于能源和食品价格的发展，2025年第二季度CPI升至3.5%。薪酬增 长速度仍然维持高位，但预计今年剩余时间仍将大幅放缓。近几个月来，服务业消费者价格通胀基本持平。委员会继续对宽松的薪酬压力将在多大程度上 影响消费者价格通胀保持警惕。 英国预计CPI通胀率将进一步小幅上升，并在9月达到4.0%的峰值，此后通胀率将回落至2%的目标。尽管如此，委员会仍然对通胀的暂时上升可能给工资 和 ...

一边是增长疲弱和失业率上升，另一边是显著高于目标的通胀，英国央行面临两难抉择。 当地时间7日（周四），英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%。这是英国央行本轮降息周期开 启以来第五次降息，英国利率已降至两年多来最低水平。 决议公布后，英镑对美元短线拉升约40点至1.3409，英国两年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至3.892%， 英国富时100指数维持跌势，下跌0.71%。 此次降息符合此前金融市场预期。分析人士指出，英国央行意在应对经济放缓和就业转弱的压力，同时 继续监控仍高于目标的通胀水平，在支持增长与抑制通胀之间寻求微妙平衡。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，GTC集团首席分析师贾米尔·艾哈迈德（Jameel Ahmad）表示，尽管英国 通胀回升至3.6%，远高于英国央行长期设定的2%目标，但英国央行本月降息其实并不令人意外，由于 全球因素和国内情绪，英国经济动能持续显现疲软迹象。 连投两次，是什么让MPC分裂 此次议息会议出现了"三方分歧"的投票局面，有报道称这也是英国央行货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee，MPC）史上首次被迫进行两次投票。MPC有9名委员，针对利率决 ...

钛媒体App 8月7日消息，英国央行行长贝利：央行不应该降息太快或太多。不预计通胀回升会持续下 去。价格和工资压力程度不同。到年底薪资增长将放缓至略低于4%。第二轮效应风险更受关注。食品 和能源价格对消费者来说很重要。劳动力市场放松，经济增长放缓。消费者比预期更谨慎。通胀风险转 向上行。经济活动下行风险略高。将采取一切必要措施实现2%的通胀目标。（广角观察） ...

【导读】英国降息25个基点 大家好，简单关注一下英国央行降息的消息。 英国降息25个基点 8月7日晚间，英国央行将基准利率从4.25%下调至4%，重启"逐步和谨慎"的降息路径。 外界普遍预期英国央行将在本次会议上降息25个基点，但交易员和经济学家更关注的是决策过程中央行内部的支持比例。 最终，货币政策委员会（MPC）中有5名成员投票支持将利率下调25个基点至4%，而另外4名成员则支持维持利率不变。此前一次三方意见分裂的投票未 能达成多数意见，因此本次是英国央行货币政策委员会28年历史上首次需要两轮投票才能作出利率决定。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利在书面声明中表示："这是一个非常微妙的决定。利率仍处于下行轨道，但未来的降息将需要逐步且谨慎地进行。" 在此次决议公布前，经济学家普遍预计支持维持不变的票数会更少。这次分裂的投票结果凸显出英国央行内部对如何应对经济增长放缓与通胀反弹并存的 复杂局面的巨大分歧。 相比之下，美国联邦储备系统今年迄今为止尚未降息，以观察未来的价格压力走势，这一策略也引来了特朗普的嘲讽。 尽管如此，英国央行继续维持其"逐步且谨慎"降息的整体指引，同时警告经济中已出现松动迹象，劳动力需求正在降温 ...

Core Insights - The threshold for entering the top 30 cities by GDP has increased to 450 billion yuan, indicating that all cities in this group are expected to surpass the trillion yuan mark for the year [1][2] - Shanghai and Beijing remain the only two cities with a GDP exceeding 20 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with respective totals of 26,222.15 billion yuan and 25,029.2 billion yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 17.3% and 14.9% [1] - Other major cities like Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Guangzhou have GDPs between 15 trillion and 20 trillion yuan, but their growth rates are considerably lower than those of Shanghai and Beijing, indicating potential areas for improvement [1] Summary by Categories Top Cities - Shanghai: 26,222.15 billion yuan, up from 22,345.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [1] - Beijing: 25,029.2 billion yuan, up from 21,791.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.9% [1] - Shenzhen: 18,322.26 billion yuan, up from 17,302.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.9% [1] - Chongqing: 15,929.58 billion yuan, up from 15,138.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.2% [1] - Guangzhou: 15,080.99 billion yuan, up from 14,297.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [1] Cities Exceeding 1 Trillion Yuan - Suzhou: 13,002.35 billion yuan, up from 12,059.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8% [2] - Chengdu: 12,108.2 billion yuan, up from 11,152.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.6% [2] - Hangzhou: 11,303 billion yuan, up from 10,137 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.5% [2] - Wuhan: 10,592.8 billion yuan, up from 9,975.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [2] Cities Approaching 1 Trillion Yuan - Nanjing: 9,179.18 billion yuan, up from 8,607.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.6% [2] - Ningbo: 8,861 billion yuan, up from 8,207.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.0% [3] - Tianjin: 8,706.6 billion yuan, up from 8,191.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.3% [3] Cities with GDP Between 6,000 and 7,000 Billion Yuan - Jinan: 6,674 billion yuan, up from 6,144.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.6% [3] - Xian: 6,358.2 billion yuan, up from 5,717.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.2% [3] Cities Below 6,000 Billion Yuan - Yantai: 5,375.1 billion yuan, up from 4,987.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8% [3] - Changzhou: 5,079.1 billion yuan, up from 4,773.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.4% [3] - Wenzhou: 4,831.9 billion yuan, up from 4,297.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.4% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

报告还指出，随着经济增长放缓，预计拉美地区的就业增长也将受限。此外，预计2025年至2026年 该地区通货膨胀率将保持在3%左右，由于国际粮食和能源价格都可能上升，通胀上行压力和风险持续 存在。 报告认为，应从提升财政支出效率、优化税收管理、改革国际金融体系、完善主权债务解决机制、 加强开发银行在资源调动中的作用等方面入手，提升拉美地区发展融资能力。 新华社圣地亚哥8月5日电（记者朱雨博）联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会（拉加经委会）5日 在智利首都圣地亚哥发布的年度经济研究报告中指出，2025年拉美和加勒比地区经济预计增长2.2%， 2026年将增长2.3%。 报告指出，2025年至2026年，受地缘政治冲突加剧、金融环境紧缩、国际贸易疲软等外部因素和消 费萎靡等内部因素影响，拉美地区经济前景面临高度不确定性，或将导致该地区国家赤字扩大，对外资 产生更多依赖。 分区域来看，报告预计南美洲经济今年将增长2.7%，高于地区平均水平，这主要得益于阿根廷、 厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚等国的经济表现；中美洲和墨西哥经济将增长1.0%，增速同比大幅下滑，主要由 于来自美国的需求缩水；加勒比地区（不含圭亚那）经济将增长1.8%， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of free preschool education in China, starting from the fall semester of 2025, which aims to alleviate the financial burden on families and enhance educational equity [1][3]. - The government emphasizes increasing fiscal education funding as a crucial measure to support the priority development of education and to ensure quality education for the public [1][3]. - The gradual implementation of free preschool education is expected to boost demand for education services, particularly benefiting low-income families and enhancing overall educational satisfaction [2][3]. Group 2 - Increased fiscal education funding is projected to have a significant positive impact on economic growth, with effects lasting even a decade after the initial investment [2]. - The move towards free preschool education is anticipated to create more job opportunities in the education sector, particularly for graduates in related fields [2][3]. - By reducing education expenses, free preschool education is likely to stimulate consumer spending in other areas, thereby contributing to broader economic growth [2][3].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（8月5日）扩大回落再度收涨，开盘价3374.28美元/盎司，最高价3390.03美元/盎司，最低价 3349.78美元/盎司，收盘价3389.49美元/盎司。 消息面： 周二公布的美国7月ISM非制造业PMI录得50.1，低于市场预期51.5，前值位50.8；美国7月标普全球服务业PMI 终值录得55.7，高于市场预期55.2，前值位55.2。 标准普尔全球首席商业经济学家：7月份，美国服务业商业活动的强劲增长帮助抵消了制造业的放缓，表明第 三季度初经济增长强劲，令人鼓舞。虽然2025年上半年的GDP平均增速为1.25%，但7月份的PMI显示，经济增 速将翻一番，达到2.5%左右。 美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉：我们的经济学家认为美联储将在2026年降息。我们的经济学家认为美联储（今年）不 会降息，因为通胀回落需要更长时间。我们的经济学家认为今年美国经济将增长约1%到1.5%。我们的经济学 家认为不会出现经济衰退。 地缘局势： 尽管俄罗斯仍坚定地继续推进其军事行动，克里姆林宫正在权衡向美国总统特朗普作出让步，其中可能包括与 乌克兰达成空中停火协议，试图避免遭到二级制裁。知情人士表示，尽管外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ISM services PMI data indicates a stagnating U.S. services sector due to weak demand and rising costs, leading to a reduction in workforce [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data Analysis - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July is reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8, indicating near stagnation [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to 50.3, approaching a standstill [2]. - The employment index has decreased to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [2]. Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The prices index for raw materials and services has risen to 69.9, the highest level since October 2022 [2]. - Backlogged orders have decreased for the fifth consecutive month, and inventory expansion has slowed, with the inventory sentiment index falling nearly 4 points to 53.2, the lowest since October of the previous year [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Market Reaction - Analysts suggest that the ISM PMI data reflects a weak U.S. services economy grappling with higher tariffs, cautious consumer attitudes, and uncertainties from government policies [4]. - Following the PMI data release, U.S. stock markets turned negative, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 0.7% after previously gaining [5]. - The divergence between the ISM services PMI and the stronger Markit services PMI, which reported a final value of 55.7, indicates contrasting economic signals [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall business sentiment has declined, with manufacturing and services confidence weakening, suggesting potential downward risks for growth in the coming months [9]. - Despite the current economic challenges, there are indications of a potential rebound in growth driven by increased demand in the technology sector and financial services [8].