英国第一季度经济环比增长0.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, matching expectations for the same growth rate [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 市场情绪延续回暖，风险资产表现偏好 ——中信期货晨报20250630 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 本 2001 11 2017 11:50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1000 1000 1000 10 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 3876.6 | - ...

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 2.2%, and next year's forecast from 2% to 2.2%, although these figures remain below last year's growth of 2.9% and the long-term average of 2.7% [1][3] - The adjustment is primarily due to the recent improvement in the international trade environment, with reduced tariff disputes between the US and major trading partners alleviating recession concerns [3][5] - The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone has been slightly upgraded to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 0.6%, but remains constrained by energy price volatility and weak manufacturing [5][6] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast for 2022 has been raised from 1.2% to 1.5%, indicating short-term economic resilience, although domestic demand may slow in the latter half of the year [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding global trade remains, with the effective tariff rate in the US currently at 14.2%, potentially rising to nearly 18%, which could exert pressure on global supply chains and inflation [5][6] - Fitch warns that despite short-term improvements, the global economy faces the most severe trade risks since the 1930s, with tariff policy uncertainty continuing to suppress business investment and consumer confidence [6]

Core Insights - The meeting held on June 28 focused on analyzing the economic performance of the Zhenjiang Economic Development Zone in the first half of the year and planning for the next phase of work [1][2] - Emphasis was placed on the urgency of stabilizing growth and promoting development, with a call for all departments to enhance their sense of responsibility and urgency [1][2] Economic Performance Analysis - The meeting included a detailed report on the economic performance, with a focus on the need for precise measures and effective implementation to achieve annual economic targets [1][2] - The Economic Development Bureau reported on the expected completion of key economic data for the first half of the year [2] Strategic Initiatives - There is a strong emphasis on project attraction, with initiatives to engage with economically developed regions and leading enterprises to expand project cooperation channels [2] - The importance of inviting businesses to visit the development zone to showcase its advantages and conditions for industrial upgrades was highlighted [2] Collaborative Efforts - The need for functional departments to strengthen collaboration in policy formulation and resource allocation was stressed to support economic development [2] - A proactive approach to analyzing and forecasting economic operations was encouraged to address challenges and prepare for high-quality regional economic development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies is suppressing economic growth [1] Group 1 - The International Bank for Settlements highlights that the current economic policies in the U.S. are creating an environment of uncertainty [1] - This uncertainty is identified as a significant factor contributing to the slowdown in economic growth [1] - The report suggests that clarity in economic policies could potentially enhance growth prospects [1]

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货（镍、不锈钢）半年报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 低位区间 沪镍持续磨底 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 6 月 29 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2025 年 6 月 26 日收于 120830 元/吨，今年上半年 沪镍整体呈现震荡下行走势。 分析师助理：李众彻 从业资格号：F03130763 电话：021-55007766-6614 邮箱：15834@guosen.com.cn 独立性申明： 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道，分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客 观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授 意、影响，特此声明。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 宏观层面，美国方面，2025 年以来，美联储在利率政策上持续采取审慎观望 态度，连续四次议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.5%不变，这一决 策主要基于对通胀走势和关税政策影响的权衡。尽管面临特朗普政府要求降息的 施压，美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调需等待关税冲击对经济和物价传导的完整评 估，短期内未释放明确降息信号。6 ...

Economic Overview - Hainan's economy showed stable and positive performance in the first five months of the year, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 11.6% year-on-year [2][3] - The province's industrial enterprises reported a revenue increase of 6.9% and a profit growth of 23.5% [2] Industrial Growth - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with added value increasing by 73.2% [2] - Major industrial products such as methanol, primary plastic, synthetic fiber polymers, and optical fibers saw notable production increases [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 1099.70 billion yuan, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase, with a notable acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The automotive retail sector experienced exceptional growth, with an increase of 76.1%, and new energy vehicle sales surged by 150% [2] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, gas, and water supply) grew by 27%, contributing 5.6 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] - Public service investment rose by 25.1%, and several sectors, including information transmission and software services, saw substantial investment increases [3] Foreign Trade and Finance - Service imports and exports totaled 282.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% year-on-year growth, with exports increasing by 66.7% [3] - Financial institutions reported a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in loan balances and a 7.5% increase in deposit balances by the end of May [3] Consumer Prices and Environmental Quality - The consumer price index in Hainan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year [3] - The province maintained high environmental quality, with an air quality rate of 96.2% and water quality compliance rates of 100% for water sources and 95.2% for urban rivers and lakes, an improvement of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]

姜增伟 全球服务贸易联盟理事长 全球服务贸易联盟理事长姜增伟在致辞中表示，当前世界各国经济发展面临不同的困难和压力，全球政治经济格局正在发生深刻复杂变化，多种风险交织叠 加，经济增长动力偏弱，各国发展面临的共同挑战显著增多。 国际货币基金组织最新数据显示，2025年全球经济增速预计为2.8%，较年初下调0.5个百分点，2026年至2030年平均增速预计为3.1%，姜增伟表示，实现全 球经济平稳有力增长是摆在各国面前的一项重要挑战。与此同时，新一轮科技革命和产业变革不断向纵深发展，新产业、新模式、新业态不断涌现，孕育了 世界经济增长和经济全球化的崭新动力。他认为，在这个重要时刻，举办"中国企业出海高峰论坛"具有重要的现实意义。 姜增伟表示，服务贸易是国际经贸合作的重要组成部分，服务业跨国投资占FDI的比重波动上升，成为服务贸易第三种交易模式。近些年来，全球服务贸易 得到持续快速发展，成为促进全球贸易和世界经济增长的重要力量，在优化资源配置、推动开放发展、提升创新水平、增强产业链供应链韧性、助力全球经 济再平衡等多个方面发挥着重要作用，服务贸易也日益成为拓展居民就业、增加居民收入、改善民众福祉的重要渠道。 联合国 ...

Group 1 - The Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin highlighted the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and robotics, as key topics among prominent Chinese entrepreneurs in the tech sector [1][4][10] - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes due to geopolitical factors, technological advancements, and economic restructuring, leading to a slowdown in global economic growth [4][6] - The number of discriminatory trade barriers has surged to over 1200 in 2024, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of over 200, indicating a rise in protectionism and trade friction [5][6] Group 2 - The forum showcased various emerging technologies, including generative watermarks for AI content and autonomous biosensors for early disease detection, as part of the "Top 10 Emerging Technologies" report [7][8] - There is a growing trend of regional trade agreements, with the number increasing from under 100 in the early 2000s to over 600 currently, reflecting a shift towards bilateral and small multilateral trade arrangements [5][6] - The global cross-border investment has seen a decline of approximately 40% from its historical peak, influenced by restrictive foreign investment policies and heightened trade tensions [6][11] Group 3 - The forum emphasized the need for global cooperation in promoting free trade, despite the challenges posed by current geopolitical realities [7][10] - Chinese companies are recognized for their rapid technological advancements, particularly in innovation and application, which are crucial for driving economic growth [11][13] - The discussion on China's economy highlighted the importance of AI integration across various industries and the potential for technology to create new job opportunities [13][14]