Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Anna Paulsen supports two additional interest rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy despite current economic conditions [1] Economic Growth - Paulsen anticipates that the economy will continue to grow above trend levels in the third quarter, suggesting resilience in economic performance [1] - However, she notes that the foundation supporting this growth is relatively narrow, raising concerns about future demand sources [1] Monetary Policy - Paulsen believes that monetary policy should disregard the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases, arguing that there are no conditions that would allow tariff-induced price hikes to evolve into sustained inflation [1]

Core Points - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1][3] - The prize amount is 11 million Swedish Krona, equivalent to over 8.3 million RMB [1] - The laureates' work emphasizes the role of new technologies in sustaining economic growth and the necessity of managing "creative destruction" constructively to avoid hindrances from companies and interest groups that may be disadvantaged by innovation [3] Summary by Sections - **Award Announcement** - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for 2025 has been jointly awarded to three economists [1] - The prize recognizes their insights into innovation and economic growth [1] - **Significance of Work** - The laureates illustrate how new technologies can drive continuous economic growth [3] - Their research highlights the importance of managing the conflicts arising from "creative destruction" to ensure that innovation is not obstructed by existing companies [3] - **Historical Context** - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was established in 1968, and since then, it has been awarded 56 times to over 90 laureates [3] - The previous year's award was given to three American economists for their work on the impact of institutions on economic prosperity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia emphasizes maintaining price stability as its core objective amid a complex economic landscape characterized by demand-driven growth and increasing supply-demand imbalances [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - The Russian economy has been experiencing rapid growth driven by strong domestic demand, with rising household incomes, credit expansion, and fiscal stimulus contributing to this momentum [1]. - However, supply-side constraints, labor shortages, and external factors such as OPEC+ production limits have exacerbated supply-demand imbalances, leading to significant inflationary pressures [1][2]. - The Central Bank raised the benchmark interest rate from 16.00% to 21.00% between July and October 2024 to combat inflation [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The tightening monetary policy is showing effects, with rising market interest rates, cooling credit activity, and a gradual return to rational domestic demand [2]. - The Central Bank plans to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 21.00% until June 2025, followed by a reduction to 18.00% in mid-2025, and a current rate of 17% as of September [2]. - The Central Bank forecasts an average benchmark interest rate of 18.8% to 19.6% for 2025, decreasing to 12.0% to 13.0% in 2026, and further to 7.5% to 8.5% by 2027-2028 [4]. Group 3: External Environment and Economic Projections - The Central Bank anticipates that trade tensions among major economies will continue to suppress global demand growth, with oil prices expected to average $55 per barrel in 2025-2026 and rise to $60 per barrel in 2027-2028 [3]. - GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.0%-2.0% in 2025 and further to 0.5%-1.5% in 2026, with a return to potential growth rates of 1.5%-2.5% by 2027 [3]. - Inflation rates are expected to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% in 2025 and further to around 4.0% in 2026, stabilizing at that level in the long term [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Economic Stability - The Central Bank emphasizes that fiscal policy will significantly influence economic conditions in the coming years, necessitating adjustments in monetary policy based on fiscal parameters [5]. - A robust and balanced fiscal policy is deemed essential for maintaining macroeconomic stability, especially in the context of ongoing sanctions and global economic fragmentation [5]. - The overarching goal remains to maintain price stability, providing a stable environment for businesses and households, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of the ruble as a currency for savings and transactions [5][6].

Economic Growth Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to continue a moderate growth trend, with an annual GDP growth forecast of 4.8% [1][5] - Economists predict an average GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for the next five years to achieve the 2035 vision [1][23] Confidence Index - The "Chief Economist Confidence Index" for October is reported at 50.3, remaining above the neutral line [5][6] - Economic uncertainties from trade wars and global geopolitical issues are acknowledged [5] GDP Predictions - The average predicted GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.8%, reflecting a decline from the second quarter [7][8] - Predictions for 2025 GDP growth also average 4.8% [7] Price Indices - The average predicted CPI for September is -0.2%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2.3% [8][9] - The CPI prediction reflects a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% [8] Retail Sales - The predicted year-on-year growth for social retail sales in September is 3.1%, down from 3.4% in the previous month [9][10] - Factors affecting retail sales include the waning demand for durable goods and high base effects from the previous year [9] Industrial Output - The average predicted year-on-year growth for industrial value added in September is 5.1%, slightly lower than the previous month's 5.2% [10][11] - Some sectors are showing signs of production slowdown, while others like steel production remain resilient [10] Fixed Asset Investment - The average predicted growth rate for fixed asset investment in September is 0%, a decrease from 0.5% in the previous month [12] - The real estate market is experiencing challenges, impacting overall investment growth [12] Real Estate Investment - The predicted cumulative growth rate for real estate development investment in September is -13.1% [13] - Despite a seasonal uptick in sales, the overall market remains under pressure [13] Trade Balance - The average predicted trade surplus for September is $96.8 billion, down from $102.3 billion [14] - Exports are expected to show a year-on-year growth of 6%, supported by strong demand [14] New Loans and Financing - The forecast for new loans in September is set at 1.548 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 590 billion yuan [15] - The total social financing volume is predicted to reach 3.5 trillion yuan [16] Money Supply - The average predicted year-on-year growth for M2 in September is 8.5%, slightly lower than the previous month's 8.8% [17] Monetary Policy Outlook - Adjustments to LPR rates and reserve requirements are expected to be minimal in the near term [18] - The monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further easing [18] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The predicted exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar at the end of October is 7.1 [20] - As of the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $333.87 billion, reflecting a slight increase [21] Policy Measures - The focus of fiscal policy in the fourth quarter will be on government bond issuance and support for infrastructure and innovation [22] - Monetary policy will continue to be flexible and supportive of economic growth while managing risks [22]

面对政府停摆导致的经济数据发布中断，投资者将在未来一周把目光转向大型银行的季度财报，以此评 估美国经济健康状况。 摩根大通、高盛等主要银行将率先公布第三季度业绩，为市场提供经济前景的重要线索。 标普500指数在经历震荡后仍维持在历史高位附近，今年以来累计上涨超过14%，其牛市行情即将迎来 三周年。在美股估值处于五年来最高水平、投资者对科技和人工智能板块热情高涨的背景下，强劲的第 三季度财报季对维持股市上涨势头至关重要。 分析师预计，标普500成分股公司第三季度整体盈利同比增长8.8%。近期疲软的就业数据引发了对经济 增长的担忧，并促使美联储重启降息周期。 银行财报成经济晴雨表 摩根大通将于下周二率先发布财报，拉开财报季序幕。高盛、富国银行和花旗集团同日公布业绩，美国 银行和摩根士丹利则定于下周三发布。 银行是美国经济的一扇窗户，如果我们看到消费者仍在支出，贷款需求正在改善，那么我会 开始认为我们或许并没有真正走向收缩。 BCA Research首席美股策略师Irene Tunkel表示： 很多看涨情绪都建立在预期盈利增长基础上。如果我们开始看到裂缝，这对整体市场来说将 不是好事。 政府停摆影响数据发布 自10 ...

Group 1 - The World Bank projects Ghana's economic growth rate to reach 4.3% by the end of 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 3.9% [1] - Economic growth in Ghana is expected to be driven primarily by the services sector, which is projected to grow by 9.9% [1] - The World Bank forecasts continued positive growth for Ghana, with expected growth rates of 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - Ghana's inflation rate is projected to reach 15.4% by the end of 2025, while official data shows a significant decrease to 9.4% in September 2025 from 21.5% the previous year [1] - The Ghanaian cedi has appreciated over 20% in the first eight months of 2025 after a 19% depreciation in 2024, attributed to tight fiscal and monetary policies and increased export revenues from cocoa and gold [2] - Ghana faces refinancing pressures with a $500 million European bond redemption due in 2025, which will rise to 1.2% of GDP by 2026 [2] Group 3 - Frequent power outages are impacting productivity in Ghana, leading to operational disruptions and increased costs for businesses [2] - Stable electricity supply and competitive energy prices are crucial for maintaining industrial productivity and attracting new investments [2]

新华财经法兰克福10月9日电（记者尹亮）8日，德国经济与能源部、德国银行业协会分别发布秋季经济 形势预测报告，称德国经济将于明年实现较高增长，或将摆脱长期疲软状况。部分德国经济界人士指 出，此次经济复苏的主要驱动力并非德国传统优势的外贸出口，而是私人及公共消费和投资活动，同时 高度依赖政府支出带来的刺激，显示德国经济仍存在长期的结构性隐忧。 面对增长压力，新一届德国联邦政府大幅度增加财政支出，以此作为提振经济的重要选项。今年7月， 德国财政部宣布，联邦内阁已批准2026年联邦预算草案。根据草案内容，2026年德国联邦政府计划总支 出为5205亿欧元，比上一年增长3.5%；公共投资规模将达到1267亿欧元，再创历史新高。资金将重点 投向交通基础设施、住房建设、数字化发展和国防安全等领域。 德国政府支出增长将带来积极的刺激。德国银行业协会的预测报告显示，仅德国联邦政府财政方案一 项，就可能在2026年为德国经济增长贡献高达0.8个百分点。德国经济与能源部的报告也表明，今明两 年交替之际，受政府经济和财政政策措施支撑，德国国内经济活力预计进一步增强。 瑞银欧洲公司德国首席经济学家、德国银行业协会经济和货币政策委员会 ...

菲律宾央行年内连续第四次降息 中新社马尼拉10月9日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾中央银行9日宣布，将关键政策利率下调25个基点至 4.75%。这是今年以来菲央行连续第四次降息。 与此同时，隔夜存款和贷款利率分别下调至4.25%和5.25%。菲央行此前已于今年4月、6月和8月分别降 息25个基点。自去年以来，该行已累计下调关键政策利率175个基点。 菲央行还透露，不排除在今年12月最后一次政策会议上再次宣布降息。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 菲央行称，通胀前景继续保持稳定是本次降息的重要依据。根据最新预测，菲律宾2025年全年通胀预期 为1.7%，与此前预测一致；2026年和2027年通胀预期分别为3.1%和2.8%，分别较此前预测下调0.2和0.6 个百分点。 同时，菲央行表示，国内经济增长前景趋弱亦推动了此次政策选择。该行指出，近期接连曝光的防洪工 程腐败丑闻削弱了 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing stalemate in Ukraine requires economic support from Europe, while the threat from Iran is diminishing, and the situation in Syria remains precarious [2][3][4] - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to have a limited impact on midterm elections, with health insurance issues gaining more attention [2][7] - The government shutdown may reduce quarterly annualized GDP growth by 15 basis points, with potential temporary increases in unemployment rates [2][8] - Alternative economic data sources, such as Federal Reserve and private sector data, can be utilized during the absence of official data, but caution is advised regarding their quality [2][9] - Nvidia is achieving record high profits through its supply chain, while other large companies are attempting to regain control by developing their own chips or collaborating with suppliers [2][10] - Incremental AI investments are primarily being undertaken by cash-rich tech companies, raising concerns about potential shifts in investment narratives [2][11][12] - If U.S. economic growth accelerates, it could lead to increased market expectations, benefiting stocks and cyclical assets, although the complexity of monetary policy expectations remains a factor [2][13] - The report anticipates a continued decline in the dollar and an increase in gold prices due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][14][16] - Emerging markets like Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and the Philippines present attractive investment opportunities due to high real interest rates [2][18] - The credit sector is facing unique challenges, with specific cases in the U.S. and Brazil, and Lebanon showing strong GDP growth and balanced budgets as potential investment targets [2][19]

Core Points - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has triggered a political crisis, leading to increased financial market volatility and concerns among investors [1][2][3] Financial Market Impact - Following the resignation, French 10-year government bond yields surged over 0.1 percentage points, surpassing 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 Eurozone crisis [2] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to over 10 basis points, reaching approximately 89 basis points, the highest since January [2] - The CAC 40 index in Paris dropped about 2%, falling below the critical 8000-point mark, with significant declines in the banking sector [3] Economic Concerns - France's public debt reached €3.4 trillion, with a budget deficit rate exceeding 5.4%, both among the highest in the EU [3][4] - Political instability has led to a decline in investor confidence, with predictions of a 0.3% loss in economic growth for 2025 due to the ongoing crisis [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding the 2026 budget proposal poses a significant challenge for the government, as failure to pass it could lead to temporary funding measures [4] Broader Implications for the Eurozone - The political turmoil in France has negatively impacted the euro, with the exchange rate against the dollar dropping significantly [7][8] - Analysts express concerns that the ongoing instability could jeopardize the entire Eurozone's economic stability, as France is a key player in the region [8] - The crisis adds to existing challenges in the EU, including slow economic growth and high borrowing costs, making it difficult to attract investment [8]