美国就业市场持稳，美联储或推迟至9月再重启降息 金十数据7月3日讯，美国6月就业市场表现稳健，非农就业人数增加14.7万人，高于5月修正后的14.4万 人；失业率意外下降至4.1%，经济学家此前预计将微升至4.3%。该报告表明劳动力市场保持稳定，这 可能使美联储将重启降息的时间推迟至9月。尽管就业增长超预期，但增速正在放缓，主要反映出招聘 活动疲软。裁员仍然相当低，在新冠大流行期间和之后，雇主普遍囤积工人，因为他们很难找到劳动 力。包括首次申请失业救济人数和领取失业金人数在内的多项指标显示，在经历了保护经济免于衰退的 强劲表现后，劳动力市场正显现疲态。当时美联储为对抗高通胀大幅收紧货币政策。 ...

www.monetamarkets.com FOREN | INCES | CONNECTITIES | SHIRE CHINE CHINE CHILI Moneta外汇认为，尽管美国劳动力市场过去一年来展现出强劲韧性，但最新市场预期显示，就业增长正面临逐步降温的局面。6月份的非农就业报告即将出 炉，投资者普遍预计新增岗位将有所减少，而失业率可能升至4.3%，创下三年半以来的新高。 R KETA A MONETA i FORE PO H 2:10: RUITD Xtreme Next Ba (@Alti-Asset MONETA A 4 MONETA AN HN 图库提体系 版上最美的图像 Tool, 冲刺激的航空部落 无需交易经营 门槛上手 保局 - 美元静可加入 82 89,00 名世界级信号游,按偶年度交易策略 全面明散据十分流模式，收益看得见统,更安心 般时提交 / 取消订单,自由掌控交易 同时跟单多个糖味,打造多元化投资组合 分散风险,资金配置更安心! 理在就下载 MM APP 发射鼻手邪起, 板松学理交易电热! 日 Moneta外汇表示，从结构来看，这种放缓主要反映出企业在当前经济政策背景下对未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected decline in U.S. private sector job growth in June, attributed to the impact of government layoffs, particularly from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is expected to cut 288,628 federal positions this year [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data and Trends - The ADP data for June revealed a surprising decrease of 33,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector, contrary to economists' expectations of a 100,000 increase, marking the first negative reading in over two years [1]. - The job vacancy rate in government sectors has decreased by 5% from January to April, while the application rate remains stagnant at levels seen in 2014, indicating a challenging environment for job seekers [2]. - Job applications from government employees have surged by 150%, particularly in knowledge-based roles such as data analysis and software development, as employees seek new opportunities amid fears of layoffs [2][3]. Group 2: Layoff Statistics and Industry Impact - In the second quarter of 2025, cumulative layoffs reached over 2.47 million, the highest for the same period since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 39% [4]. - The government sector experienced a 46% month-on-month increase in layoffs in June, while the retail sector led private sector layoffs with 79,865 positions cut, a staggering 256% increase year-on-year [4]. - The technology sector has also seen significant layoffs, with 76,214 positions eliminated this year, reflecting a 27% increase, as companies face challenges due to high interest rates and reduced hiring needs post-pandemic [5].

Group 1 - The ADP data for June shows a surprising decrease in private sector employment by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative reading in over two years, contrary to economists' expectations of a 100,000 job increase [1] - The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is expected to cut 288,628 federal government positions within the year, contributing to a slowdown in the labor market at a critical time [1] - Job vacancies in government sectors have decreased by 5% from January to April, while the application rate remains stagnant at 2014 levels, indicating a challenging environment for job seekers [3] Group 2 - There has been a 150% increase in job applications from government employees, particularly in data analysis, marketing, and software development roles, as they seek new opportunities amid fears of layoffs [3] - The search volume for positions such as "policy analyst" and "contract specialist" has surged, with a tenfold increase in searches for "policy analyst" roles among federal employees [3] - The labor market is expected to show complex dynamics, with a total of over 2.47 million layoffs in the second quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2020, despite a 49% decrease in layoffs from May to June [5] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show only 115,000 new jobs added in June, which would represent the slowest job growth in the first half of the year since the financial crisis, with an expected slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] - The demand for white-collar jobs is significantly higher than for skilled labor jobs, posing a challenge for job seekers entering the labor market [6] - The tech sector is facing hiring difficulties due to sustained high interest rates, which hinder the growth of debt-dependent tech companies, particularly startups, leading to a reduction in hiring [6]

| | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | | 350-375 | | 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 73.1% | | 2025/9/17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 64.9% | 12.9% | | 2025/10/29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 53.3% | 27.1% | 3.5% | | 2025/1 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected decline in the "little non-farm" data raises concerns about the strength of the U.S. job market, with the market awaiting confirmation from the upcoming non-farm payroll report [1] - Gold prices have increased for three consecutive days but experienced a pullback during the Asian trading session, indicating potential consolidation among bullish traders [1] - Mixed sentiments are observed in major indices such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, leading to uncertainty about future market trends [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 73% bullish and 27% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 82%, with only 18% bearish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a more balanced sentiment of 59% bullish and 41% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 57% against 43% bullish, and the German DAX 40 Index shows a near-even split with 47% bullish and 53% bearish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 86%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 84% [4] - The Euro/Yen and Euro/AUD pairs both exhibit a high bearish sentiment of 93%, indicating a strong preference for selling these pairs [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 84%, while the USD/JPY pair is nearly balanced with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on gold and a cautiously bullish view on silver in the second half of the year [1][3] - If the non - farm payroll data and tariff progress do not deteriorate significantly, gold may need to consolidate within a range this month; if they deteriorate significantly, the gold price is expected to rise with fluctuations, and silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short term [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, with an expected value of 48.8 and a previous value of 48.5; the output index was 50.3, the previous value was 45.4; the manufacturing price - paid index was 69.7, the expected value was 69, the previous value was 69.4; the employment index was 45, the expected value was 47, the previous value was 46.8; the inventory index was 49.2, the previous value was 46.7; the new orders index was 46.4, the previous value was 47.6 [2] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, the labor market is gradually cooling, it's uncertain if a July rate cut is too early, no meeting is excluded and it depends on data, the Fed's current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, and the economy and labor market are stable [2] - In May, the US JOLTs job openings were 7.769 million, with an expected value of 7.3 million and a revised previous value from 7.391 million to 7.395 million [2] - In May, the US construction spending decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with an expected decrease of 0.2% and a revised previous value from a decrease of 0.4% to a decrease of 0.2% [2] Price Logic - The US dollar reached a new low, and the US Treasury yields declined simultaneously. Most commodities rebounded, and precious metals showed a significant upward movement [1][3] - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly. Job openings indicate that the employment market demand remains resilient. The Fed Chairman's remarks became more dovish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year increased slightly. Fed Watch shows three rate cuts within the year, with the first cut still expected in September [1][3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, with mixed signals from officials about the timing and necessity of potential rate cuts in July, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials Bowman and Waller have indicated that a rate cut could be considered as early as July, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the need to support economic growth [2][3]. - Waller believes that the labor market's weakness may justify a July rate cut, while Bowman supports a cut if inflation continues to decline [2][3]. - Other officials, such as Barr and Williams, express caution, highlighting the potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation and suggesting that the Fed should wait for further economic developments before acting [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic data shows that inflation has remained moderate, but there are concerns that core prices may rebound in the second half of the year, alongside a slight increase in unemployment rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that significant triggers for a rate cut could include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, as well as risks in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The economic growth forecast for the U.S. is projected to slow to around 1% this year, with inflation expected to rise to 3% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Market expectations for a July rate cut are polarized, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a forecast for two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [14]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP growth and inflation is significant, with estimates suggesting a 2.2% decline in GDP growth by 2025 if tariffs are fully implemented [14]. - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed may complicate the decision-making process, forcing the Fed into a challenging position regarding rate cuts and inflation management [6][14].

证券研究报告 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势,预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格,近期已有所回落,对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5月联储会 议以来,美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面,5月 会议以来,中美关税降级,市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降,美国就业市场 有序降温:4-5月新增非农人数连续超预期,但3个月移动均值整体下行; 周度首申、续中人数也显示就业市场放缓,但未大规模裁员。另一方面,5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期,关税对通胀的推升暂不明显,但高频数据 显示关税仍在推高商品价格,联储仍可能担忧关税带来通胀压力。 宽观 6 月 FOMC 预览:联储仍有等待的空 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 概览:北京时间6月19日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布6月议息会议决定, 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但我们预计目前对联储影响有限,联储主 要关注国内就业市场和通胀的走势:就业市场有序降温、关税对通胀传导暂 不明显,因此预计联储６月会议上将维持利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is expected to continue rising during the summer, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] Labor Market Conditions - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 remained steady at 248,000, higher than the market expectation of 240,000 [1] - Some states are allowing non-teaching staff to claim benefits during the long summer break, which may contribute to an increase in claims as the school year ends [1] Employment Growth - Despite economic uncertainties caused by aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, employers are retaining workers, and there have not been large-scale layoffs [1] - The non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, which is lower than the 193,000 added in the same month last year [1]