2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 失业率(左轴) 非农就业增速(右轴) (%) (%) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 政府 服务 商品 月均新增就业(千人) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 ...

财料｜一图读懂4月美国非农报告 新增非农就业人数超预期，政府雇员连续三个月减少。特朗普点赞美国就业市场，并继续喊话美联储"快降息"……一图读懂 2025年4月美国非农报告 20 10 0 2025-04 公布值 17.7万人 预期值 13万人 ·失业率 0.5% 0 4960 492 49 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2025-04 0% 0.2% 公布值 预期值 0.30% 02 | 2025年04月非农就业人口全貌 4月非农总就业人口1.5952亿人 ▲17.7万人 单位: 万人 采矿和伐木 62.5 联邦政府 +0.1 298.9 0.9 建筑 HIRAHA 831.6 552.2 +7.7 +0.6 F 5577 TA S P J 13590.5 +16.7 私营服务生产 11419.9 +15.6 专业和商业服务 技7 设计、 2261.4 +1.7 信息技术 293.8 0 03 | 美联储利率预期 ·CME"美联储观察"工具对美联储利率未来预期 数据公布后 数据公布前 ■ 100% 95.3% 97.6% Q 是十数据 80% 60% 52.7%55.2% 46.1% 42.1% 4 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs this month, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 and significantly below the expected 115,000 jobs [1][3] - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for employees staying in their current positions rising by 4.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March, while salaries for job switchers increased to 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [3] Group 2 - The report comes amid increasing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on corporate hiring plans and the broader economic situation [3] - The ADP data serves as a leading indicator for the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a job growth of 135,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [3]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部3月7日公布数据 ，2月新增非农15.1万人，略低于预期的16万人；12月数据上修1.6 万人至32.3万人，1月数据下修1.8万人和12.5万人。失业率上行0.1pct至4.1%，高于预期的4.0% 。 第二， 从非农数据来看，美国就业市场基本平稳，但已有分化和弱化特征。一方面，1月非农受天气和火灾 影响的部门（建筑业）2月有较大幅度回补。就业扩散指数（表征就业广度）回升，特别是制造业扩散指数明 显回弹。另一方面，消费相关行业（零售）就业显著走弱，这一点和Q1沃尔玛调降全球收入和盈利预期一致 ，即2025年消费者消费能力和意愿降温带动雇佣需求弱化。此外，DOGE冻结招聘以及裁员政策导致联邦政 府部门新增就业由正转负，这一趋势可能还将延续 。 第三， 失业率小幅上行。一是失业率（U3）从前值的4.09%升至2月的4.14%。从失业原因来看，永久失业 贡献0.03pct，永久性失业人数的上升意味着公司裁员意愿有所提升。需要注意的是，1月劳动力人口显著回 落，若不考虑劳动力人口下降的38.5万 ...

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly up from January's revised figure of 125,000 but below the market expectation of 160,000[9][10] - The three-month average for job additions is 199,700, indicating a slight downward trend compared to previous values[10][11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, exceeding expectations, while the labor force participation rate decreased to approximately 62.4%[3][15] Labor Market Dynamics - The increase in permanent unemployment and re-employment rates suggests a continued decline in the labor market, with temporary unemployment and voluntary departures decreasing[19][15] - Average hourly earnings rose to $35.93, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, but the month-on-month growth rate showed a slight decline[23][19] - The leisure and hospitality sector has seen job losses for two consecutive months, indicating potential weaknesses in the service industry[11][14] Future Outlook - The employment market may continue to weaken due to federal government layoffs and the impact of illegal immigration policies, which are expected to have a negative effect on job availability[35][39] - The government layoffs have not fully impacted the February employment data, suggesting potential future job losses[35][36] - The ongoing deportation of illegal immigrants, although currently below expectations, may increase and further strain the labor market[38][39] Economic Implications - The February employment data is unlikely to significantly influence the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates[39] - Asset prices, including U.S. stocks and bonds, may remain under pressure due to concerns over economic momentum weakening[39][40]