Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have shown strong rebounds recently [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 20, gold prices opened at $3,230.66 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,204.50, and then surged to a high of $3,295.52, closing at $3,289.70, marking a daily increase of $59.04 or 1.83% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $91.02, indicating significant volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU and the UK, along with tensions surrounding Iran, have heightened market concerns, driving up gold prices [3][8]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below short-term moving averages, which may provide further support for gold prices [3][8]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and IMF's forecast of slower U.S. economic growth compared to global growth are contributing to a decline in the dollar's attractiveness [8]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-10 month moving averages and are showing signs of a potential upward trend, with a focus on the $2,900 to $3,500 range for future movements [10][12]. - The daily chart indicates a rebound from key support levels, suggesting a bullish outlook for the near term [12][13]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3,275 or $3,255 and resistance at $3,330 or $3,350 for gold [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $32.90 or $32.75, with resistance at $33.35 or $33.70 [12].

黄金大涨。 5月20日晚间，黄金期现盘中均直线拉升。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨1.54%，报3278.915美元/盎司，COMEX黄金涨1.52%，报3282.5美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 3278.915 | | 昨结 | 3229.130 | 总量 | 0 | | | +49.785 | | +1.54% 十益 | 3230.148 | 现手 | 0 | | | 最高价 | 3285.830 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | 0 | | | 最低价 | 3204.205 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | 0 | | | 分时 | モ日 | | 周Ｋ | 月K | (0) | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 3285.830 | | | | 1.76% 卖一 3279.465 | | | | | | | | 头一 3278.915 | | | | | | | | 23:01 3278.500 2 ...

文章来源：公众号喵姐交易日记 周二(5月20日)，美元指数在100.43徘徊，黄金回落3221美元，比特币再次反弹突破105000美元。华尔街最大巨鲸Strategy公司和日本投资公司Metaplanet相 继公布增持比特币的利多！美联储强调观望立场，夏季降息可能性降低。白宫顾问凯文·哈塞特暗示，将达成更多双边贸易协议。 比特币短期不确定性未阻止长期买家增持比特币，Strategy公司(前身为MicroStrategy)宣布以约103500美元的平均价格 购买7390枚比特币，使其总持仓量 达到576230枚比特币。 Strategy报告称，今年迄今为止的比特币收益率为16.3%。根据总持仓量表现，平均每枚比特币价格为69726美元。按当前价格计算，该公司持有的比特币 总价值超过592亿美元，未实现收益为192亿美元，占比47%。 同时，日本投资公司Metaplanet周初表示，其收购了1004枚比特币，使其总数达到7800枚比特币。 | Number of Bitcoin Purchased: | 1.004 Bitcoir | | --- | --- | | Average Purchase Price: ...

基本面： 周二（5月20日）国际评级机构穆迪的一则公告震动全球——美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"，理由是"债务与利息负担远超同类国家"。这一决定犹 如一记重锤，直接砸向美元霸权的根基。市场反应极其迅速：美元指数暴跌0.6%至5月8日以来最低，美股承压，而黄金则一路狂飙，现货金价一度逼近 3250美元/盎司。在美国评级下调的背景下，黄金仍是安全的赌注。"更令人担忧的是，美联储官员的表态透露出深层次的焦虑。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克 警告，评级下调将推高借贷成本，引发经济连锁反应。而纽约联储主席威廉姆斯虽坚称"未看到资金大规模撤离"， 如果连美债和美元都开始失去"避险光环"，黄金是否会成为最后的避风港，就在黄金因避险情绪高歌猛进之际，周一晚间的一则消息却让市场瞬间降温—— 普京与特朗普通电话后，双方均释放"俄乌即将停火谈判"的信号。特朗普甚至高调宣布："俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判！ 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。关注压力100.00位置。 白银图表： 美国总统特朗普表示，"我们将竭尽全力阻止乌克兰冲突。"这一消息让市场风险偏好短暂回升，周二亚市金价小幅回落至3220美元附近。但资深观 ...

黄金（GOLD1000）: 一、基本面： 多位美联储官员发表讲话，谨慎对待美国政府信用评级被下调和市场不稳定带来的影响，目前他们仍在 应对非常不确定的经济环境。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，联储将以对待所有新信息的角度来看待这次评 级下调，不会评论这次评级下调会带来什么政治经济方面的影响。亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，此 次评级被调降"将对资本成本和其他一系列因素产生影响，因此可能会对经济产生连锁反应"；鉴于经济 形势瞬息万变，"我认为我们需要等待三到六个月才能看到最终结果，我认为这将成为决定人们在美投 资意愿和兴趣的重要因素。" 美国总统特朗普周一表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判，以解决长达三年之久的冲突，但在两 小时的通话中，他似乎并未从俄罗斯总统普京那里获得重大让步。"俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始谈判， 以实现停火，更重要的是结束战争，"特朗普说，他随后在白宫补充说，他认为 "正在取得一些进展"。 普京在与特朗普通话后表示，结束战争的努力 "总体上处于正确轨道上"，莫斯科已准备好与乌克兰就 可能达成的和平协议进行合作。 金价震荡走高，受穆迪下调美国政府信用评级后，美元走软和避险需求的推动。现货金约涨0.8% ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 俄乌直接谈判并没有达成任何共识且欧洲酝酿对俄罗斯新一轮制裁，美国威 胁对缺乏谈判善意国家的对等关税将回到解放日水平，避险需求推动伦敦黄金在 回到3200美元/盎司上方，观察伦敦黄金在3130-3200美元/盎司一线的支撑力度。 特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提 振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思 维以中低仓位参与交易，但工业需求压力下白银相对偏弱。本周关注中国 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have recently experienced a pullback of over 10% from their peak at the end of April, primarily due to a decline in risk aversion as the US and China have canceled 91% of tariffs, easing tensions and reducing risk premiums [1] - Despite the recent pullback, the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by significant increases in central bank gold purchases since 2020, which have remained high for three consecutive years, signaling positive sentiment to other gold buyers [1] - Geopolitical risks, such as ongoing Middle East conflicts and slow progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, may lead to a temporary increase in safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 2 - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, following similar actions by other major rating agencies, raises concerns about the US sovereign bond market and challenges to the dollar's credit system amid excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may emerge as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing the upward momentum for precious metals [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider accumulating gold ETFs (518800) and their corresponding funds during price pullbacks, as these funds invest in gold spot contracts and offer better liquidity and convenience compared to physical gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

中金公司表示，若中美关税谈判进一步推进，或促使风险偏好继续改善。如果充分考虑避险溢价的出清 空间（即地缘局势不超预期恶化），COMEX金价或面临回落至3000美元/盎司下方的风险。中泰证券表 示，短期内因降息预期的回落等因素对价存在压制。中长期来看，十年期美债的真实收益率处于过去十 年的高位区间，美国经济逐步走向滞胀，美元信用体系的重塑已经成为趋势，金价有望持续走高。 从长期的角度来看，对投资者而言，黄金资产仍可作为资产配置中的重要一环。在配置时，投资者还需 要根据自身的投资目标和风险承受能力制定合理的投资策略，并及时关注市场动态变化。 综上，近期金价出现波动主要是受到避险需求下降以及美联储释放推迟降息信号的影响。短期金价或仍 有回调风险，不过黄金长期支撑因素仍然存在，其配置价值值得重视。 近期，金价表现较为震荡。数据显示，上周（5月12日至5月16日）COMEX黄金期货累跌4.32%，创下 2024年11月以来最大单周跌幅。 本轮金价为何会出现明显回调？ 近期金价出现明显波动的核心驱动因素主要是避险需求降温。近日，全球关税谈判取得突破性进展，中 美同步大幅降低双边关税水平。同时，俄乌谈判重启、印巴停火等重大 ...

周一亚洲早盘，现货金一度冲高至3,245美元/盎司，随后维持在3,230美元上方震荡。 消息面解读：穆迪调降美国主权信用评级至Aa1后，市场对美国财政赤字与经济前景的担忧升温，避险买盘重返贵金属市场，上周创下六个月来最大周跌幅 的颓势被部分收复。美元指数回落与美债收益率下滑共同为金价提供支撑。穆迪下调评级虽在意料之外，却凸显美国财政挑战的中长期风险，叠加全球地缘 冲突与关税不确定性，使黄金的避险和对冲价值再度凸显。与此同时，美联储理事巴尔的最新表态也值得关注。他虽认为美国经济基础稳固，但也警告称贸 易争端可能令前景蒙阴。这种"鹰中带鸽"的言论，进一步巩固了美元的强势地位，间接加剧了黄金的跌势。 5月17日，美国金融市场迎来一场"黑色风暴"——国际评级机构穆迪突然将美国主权信用评级从顶级"AAA"下调至"AA+"，这是美国三年内第三次失去三大 评级机构的最高评级。这一决定如同一枚深水炸弹，瞬间引发股债汇三杀，美国国债收益率飙升，黄金价格则因避险需求逆势走强。现在穆迪评级的影响金 价飙升，在周评分析中，我表述出看空的的思路，也解析看空的缘由。今日亚盘高点也与我们周评布空的点位吻合，截止发文最低报价3214附近，如 ...