智通财经APP注意到，未来一周，投资界的目光将聚焦美国怀俄明州西北部——美联储主席鲍威尔将于 周五在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表其任内最重要的政策演讲。这场由堪萨斯城联储在大提顿国家 公园杰克逊湖旅馆举办的年度会议，历来是美联储主席释放政策转向信号的关键舞台。 在鲍威尔(很可能作为美联储主席的最后一次)演讲前夕，市场对联储下月至少降息25个基点的预期概率 已达85%。关于美联储即将开启的降息周期速度与幅度的线索，将成为本周最具市场影响力的事件。 企业财报方面，沃尔玛(WMT.US)、塔吉特(TGT.US)和家得宝(HD.US)的业绩将主导零售板块焦点，标 志着财报季节奏放缓。经济数据流本周同样清淡，周四公布的初请失业金人数和服务业活动指数将成为 主要看点。 投资者或需格外关注周三公布的美联储7月30-31日会议纪要，其中可能详细披露理事沃勒和鲍曼反对将 利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间决策的内情。 当动能股停滞时，若无其他板块承接，大盘将受重创——但本周投资者选择跨板块轮动而非撤离。 如同现代生活的诸多方面，股市叙事总被"卖出美国"或TACO等梗简化。但标普500本周两创新高，投资 者冷静情绪反而印证了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The overseas market is facing a weak US economic fundamental. The Sino - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12, and the US CPI in July met expectations. In the future, with tariffs taking effect in August, the marginal inflection point of the previous concentrated overseas demand release is approaching, and the economic fundamental will test the sustainability of market sentiment. Personnel changes within the Fed and next week's US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest - rate cuts and risk appetite [7]. - Domestic macro: At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan; RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 9.66 trillion yuan. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - Asset views: Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit - repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities but focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds; slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest - rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the inflection points of policies and data in the second half of August [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4163.8, down 0.17% daily, up 1.97% weekly, 2.63% monthly, 11.36% quarterly, and 6.19% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures closed at 2829.6, up 0.38% daily, up 1.59% weekly, 1.89% monthly, 7.67% quarterly, and 5.66% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures closed at 6380.2, down 1.11% daily, up 2.46% weekly, 4.18% monthly, 16.03% quarterly, and 12.07% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures closed at 6929.2, down 1.04% daily, up 2.88% weekly, 5.98% monthly, 19.75% quarterly, and 18.48% year - to - date [3]. - Treasury futures: 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102.348, down 0.02% daily, down 0.04% weekly, flat monthly, down 0.20% quarterly, and down 0.61% year - to - date; 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.665, down 0.08% daily, down 0.17% weekly, down 0.06% monthly, down 0.53% quarterly, and down 0.82% year - to - date; 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.325, down 0.10% daily, down 0.29% weekly, down 0.15% monthly, down 0.55% quarterly, and down 0.55% year - to - date; 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 117.88, down 0.33% daily, down 1.21% weekly, down 1.04% monthly, down 1.73% quarterly, and down 0.80% year - to - date [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.7884, unchanged daily, down 0.49% weekly, down 2.26% monthly, down 1.80% quarterly, and down 9.86% year - to - date; the US dollar central parity rate was 7.1337 [3]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.51; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.73, up 0.8 bp daily, up 3.4 bp weekly, up 3 bp monthly, up 7.3 bp quarterly, and up 0.1 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.29, up 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 9 bp monthly, unchanged quarterly, and down 26 bp year - to - date; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.57, up 6 bp daily, unchanged weekly, up 13 bp monthly, up 2 bp quarterly, and up 24 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year breakeven inflation rate was 2.38, down 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 4 bp monthly, up 11 bp quarterly, and up 7 bp year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Commodity Market Fluctuations - Metals: Gold closed at 778.7, up 0.13% daily, down 1.16% weekly, up 1.09% monthly, down 1.49% quarterly, and up 26.08% year - to - date; silver closed at 9286, down 0.15% daily, up 0.09% weekly, up 3.09% monthly, up 11.56% quarterly, and up 24.31% year - to - date; copper closed at 78950, down 0.54% daily, up 0.59% weekly, up 1.17% monthly, up 2.73% quarterly, and up 7.02% year - to - date; aluminum closed at 20715, down 0.36% daily, up 0.15% weekly, up 1.00% monthly, up 4.12% quarterly, and up 4.73% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 62.74, down 0.54% daily, down 0.96% weekly, down 9.54% monthly, down 0.68% quarterly, and down 12.70% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil closed at 65.74, down 0.56% daily, down 0.87% weekly, down 8.41% monthly, down 0.14% quarterly, and down 12.15% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas closed at 2.819, up 1.33% daily, down 5.91% weekly, down 9.06% monthly, down 10.73% quarterly, and down 22.41% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Agriculture: CBOT soybeans closed at 1042, up 0.94% daily, up 5.63% weekly, up 5.23% monthly, down 1.63% quarterly, and up 3.17% year - to - date; CBOT corn closed at 396.75, up 0.57% daily, down 2.28% weekly, down 4.11% monthly, down 18.03% quarterly, and down 13.51% year - to - date; CBOT wheat closed at 507, up 0.45% daily, down 1.65% weekly, down 3.24% monthly, down 6.93% quarterly, and down 7.99% year - to - date; etc. [3]. 3.3 Asset Views and Short - Term Judgments - Financial: For stock index futures, growth opportunities are spreading, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for stock index options, offensive strategies are being laid out, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for Treasury futures, the bond market remains under pressure, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are oscillating strongly, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward [8]. - Shipping: For container shipping to Europe, focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Black building materials: Steel prices are fluctuating due to cost changes, with a short - term judgment of volatile; iron ore prices are oscillating with a slight decline in hot - metal production, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension, with a short - term judgment of volatile; aluminum prices are continuing to recover with fluctuating sentiment, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil prices are facing supply pressure with eased geopolitical concerns, with a short - term judgment of volatile downward; LPG prices are stable in cracking spreads supported by chemical demand, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10]. - Agriculture: For oils and fats, the short - term market sentiment is cooling, but there is a high probability of continued strength in the medium term, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for protein meals, the bullish sentiment is being released, and the market may oscillate and adjust, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10].

Core Insights - The recent unemployment claims data presents a complex signal regarding the labor market's adjustment under policy pressures, with initial claims decreasing to 224,000, below market expectations of 228,000, indicating a continuation of low volatility trends [1] - Despite a cooling hiring sentiment due to economic uncertainties from tariff policies, employers have not initiated large-scale layoffs, as evidenced by the average monthly job additions of only 35,000 over the past three months [1] - The continuing high level of continuing claims at 1.95 million suggests that some unemployed individuals are facing prolonged job search periods, aligning with predictions of a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] Policy and Market Reactions - Recent data has prompted policy changes, including the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics director following significant downward revisions of employment data for May and June, with a controversial nominee, EJ. Anthony, proposed for the position [1] - Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although rising service sector inflation and tariff-induced price pressures may influence the pace of policy adjustments [1] Regional Employment Trends - The four-week moving average of initial claims remains stable at 221,800, while actual claims in regions like Massachusetts have shown an uptick, indicating a divergence in regional labor markets [2]

Core Points - US stock futures fell by approximately 0.1%, while major European indices opened mostly higher [1][11] - The Japanese stock market declined, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 1.4% and the Topix index down by 1.1% [3] - The US Treasury yields mostly decreased, with both 2-year and 10-year yields down by over 1 basis point [4] - The British GDP for Q2 exceeded expectations with a growth of 0.3%, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts [5] - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude rising over 0.4% to above $62.20 [8][18] - Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant gains, with Bitcoin rising over 2% to above $121,800 and Ethereum rising over 3% to above $47,700 [9][10] Market Reactions - The US dollar index initially fell by nearly 0.2% but later turned to an increase [4][12] - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.7%, marking its largest gain in nearly two weeks [1] - Gold prices remained stable, with spot gold slightly up by over 0.2% [6][15] - Silver prices showed minimal movement, with spot silver remaining flat [7]

Group 1: A-shares Market - The A-share market saw significant movement today, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3674-point mark shortly after opening, indicating a potential acceleration in new capital entering the market [6] - Trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, marking the fourth occurrence since 2025 where trading volume surpassed this threshold, reflecting heightened trading activity [6] - The market remains structurally diverse, with a mix of stocks rising and falling, but notable gains were seen in the optical module sector, with related ETFs experiencing substantial increases [8] Group 2: Global Market Context - The core focus today was on global markets, particularly following the release of the U.S. CPI data, which was lower than expected, raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to over 95% [10] - Major global indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached all-time highs, while the Nikkei 225 also hit a historical peak, reflecting a broad rally in risk assets across major economies [10] - The past year has been characterized by a global easing cycle and expansive fiscal policies in major economies, which have been pivotal in driving the rebound in risk assets [12][13] Group 3: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market's performance was influenced by the elevated expectations of a U.S. rate cut, benefiting several major internet companies that saw significant stock price increases [16] - Tencent Music reported a 33% year-on-year increase in net profit, leading to a stock price surge of over 15%, highlighting strong earnings performance in the tech sector [16] - However, the electric vehicle sector lagged, with notable declines in stocks like NIO and XPeng, indicating sector-specific challenges despite overall market gains [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that a series of interest rate cuts may be on the horizon, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September [1] - Current models suggest that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current levels [1] - The selection process for Federal Reserve candidates is broad, with 10 to 11 individuals under consideration, including previously undisclosed candidates [1] Group 2 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve includes notable figures such as Michelle Bowman, Chris Waller, and Philip Jefferson, among others [2] - Becerra mentioned that the entire yield curve in the U.S. could potentially shift downward, reflecting the credibility of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve [3] - The Treasury is adapting its approach to debt issuance, focusing on short-term Treasury bills to supplement fiscal cash [3]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国财长贝森特：现在可能会进入一系列降息周期。美联储的利率应当比现在的水平低150到175个基 点。对美联储9月会议感到乐观。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a strong performance in the excavator market, with total sales reaching 17,138 units in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,306 units (up 17.2%), while exports reached 9,832 units (up 31.9%), suggesting a robust recovery in both domestic and overseas demand [1]. Domestic Demand - The domestic demand for excavators is showing resilience, supported by both replacement and incremental demand influenced by the timing of funding availability. The government has allocated 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for infrastructure projects, which is 500 billion yuan more than the previous year. This funding is expected to facilitate project approvals and stimulate demand in Q3 [2]. - The peak of the previous domestic demand cycle occurred in 2016-2017, with new machine replacements expected to begin in 2024-2025. The combination of new projects and the upcoming replacement cycle is anticipated to drive demand for non-excavator products, such as cranes and concrete machinery, aligning their growth rates with those of excavators [2]. Overseas Demand - The overseas market for excavators is experiencing a significant recovery, with export growth exceeding market expectations. From January to June 2025, China's engineering machinery exports amounted to $27.998 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Excavator exports specifically grew by 23.1%, with Indonesia, Russia, and Belgium being the top three markets [3]. - The European market is gradually recovering, with exports to the U.S. showing signs of stabilization after a decline due to tariff policies. In June, excavator exports to the U.S. reached $33.2698 million, a month-on-month increase of 130.8%. The low base effect in mature markets is expected to limit further declines in 2025, providing strong support for leading manufacturers' performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts expect the Federal Reserve to potentially restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, with a total of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each anticipated for the remainder of the year [1] Group 1 - The US Dollar Index is forecasted to be 95.89 in three months [1] - The US Dollar Index is projected to reach 97.93 in six to twelve months [1]

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum supply is strictly limited by power factors, with domestic capacity constraints and high overseas investment costs leading to limited supply, supporting high aluminum prices [1][3] - Despite a global economic slowdown, demand for non-ferrous metals shows resilience, with increased aluminum demand driven by new energy, grid construction, and smart technologies [1][4] Key Insights - The capital expenditure in the electrolytic aluminum sector is contracting, with an increase in cash flow and dividend payout ratios, achieving the highest dividend yield in the market (over 5%) [1][7] - The aluminum and coal industries have successfully implemented supply-side reforms due to their impact on social stability, while steel and chemical industries face challenges due to local government pressures [1][8] - Aluminum demand is more resilient than copper, benefiting from rapid grid construction and new energy vehicle developments, contributing significantly to demand growth [1][15] Supply Dynamics - Both domestic and international aluminum supply are in a tight balance, with overseas planned capacity limited and actual production progress falling short of expectations [1][18] - The industrial support capacity is currently poor, with raw materials heavily reliant on imports, restricting large-scale aluminum production [1][19] Economic Impact - The interest rate cut cycle is favorable for non-ferrous asset allocation, with low inventories of copper and aluminum making them sensitive to liquidity [1][11] - The current average dividend yield for the aluminum sector is over 5%, with potential for further increases, possibly replicating the past growth of the coal sector [1][7][27] Investment Opportunities - High-dividend private enterprises such as Hongqiao and Hongchuang, as well as undervalued state-owned enterprises like Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo, are worth attention [1][26] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a significant rebound in pricing and profitability, with a potential increase in valuation multiples from 6-7 times to 15-16 times [1][28] Future Trends - The aluminum industry is anticipated to transition from a manufacturing focus to a resource-based asset industry, with strong price and profit recovery expected [1][28] - The demand for aluminum is projected to remain strong due to ongoing industrial upgrades and the transition to new energy applications [1][16][15] Conclusion - The aluminum industry is positioned for growth, driven by structural changes in demand and supply dynamics, with high dividend yields and potential for significant capital appreciation making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][30]