Core Viewpoint - High dividend investment is often questioned as it indicates a company entering a mature phase, while high growth is perceived to bring higher value and faster earnings [2] Group 1: Reasons for Preference for High Dividend Stocks - High growth often comes with high valuations, meaning potential returns may not be high if growth expectations are not met, leading to a double whammy risk [4] - Investment should focus on certainty; established companies provide higher certainty compared to startups, which carry more risk [4] - Ultimately, companies aiming for profit must return value to investors through dividends, making high dividend stocks a logical choice [4] - A high dividend indicates a low valuation and a high safety margin, which are key to investment success [5] - High dividends reflect good profit quality and strong cash flow, characteristics of high-value companies [5] Group 2: Benefits of High Dividend Investments - Dividends can be used for living expenses or reinvested, contributing to portfolio growth and compensating for lower earnings growth [6] - Focusing on dividends leads to a more stable investment lifestyle compared to purely chasing capital gains, allowing for a more balanced life [6] - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification to achieve varied sources of returns and risk mitigation [6]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 东安湖xiaohu 来源：雪球 端午节 ， 晚上和家人亲戚喝了点酒 ， 想说的其实早就在构思 ， 只是趁着酒劲晕乎乎的写了出 来 。 一是深刻剖析自己 ， 二是自己淋过雨 ， 也想为他人撑把伞 。 希望写的东西能让很多人 看到 ， 前事不忘 ， 后事之师 。 一 、 故事梗概 " 小镇做题家 " ， 211本科 ， 985硕士 ， 体制内 （ GWY ） ， 1 ： 7杠杆 （ 自己存款 30W+父母给的38W+XFD45w+最高融资账号100W＋ ） ， 炒股亏损25W ， 父母痛心 ， 暂离 股市 。 二 、 初进股市 记得我初进股市还是我读研的时候 ， 时间大概在2019年 ， 当时没多少钱 ， 就买了几千块 ， 然后就一直放着不动 ， 也没过多关注 ， 当时也没想在股市赚啥钱 ， 纯粹就是想着要懂得理财 投资 ， 买的股也是蓝筹股华能水电 ， 毕竟自己专业相关 ， 买了水电股 。 后面的确没咋关注 ， 也忘记是何时卖的 ， 没有亏钱 。 三、 工作后逐渐加钱 疫情期间 ， 加上自己能力有限 ， 趁着东风 ， ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of fixed overall volatility in asset allocation to maximize returns and Sharpe ratios, derived from the pursuit of portfolio efficiency [3][41]. - The article outlines a three-step process to reconstruct investment paradigms: setting risk budgets, decomposing volatility allocation, and maximizing efficiency [6][10][11]. - The article presents backtesting results using the "three-part method" tool, comparing various strategies and highlighting the performance of long bond and equity combinations [4][12]. Group 2 - The first step involves anchoring the overall annualized volatility target, which should align with the investor's risk tolerance, with examples indicating a target of around 2% volatility corresponding to a maximum drawdown of 2% [6][7]. - The second step focuses on decomposing total volatility across asset classes using dynamic optimization models, aiming for negative correlation between asset classes to enhance returns [10][16]. - The third step aims to maximize the overall portfolio efficiency by adjusting the volatility exposure allocated to different asset classes [11][21]. Group 3 - Backtesting results show that an 88.5% long bond and 11.5% equity combination achieved a cumulative return of 22.20% with an annualized volatility of only 2.19%, significantly lower than the 17.72% volatility of the CSI 300 index [16][42]. - The long bond portion contributed an annualized volatility of 1.85%, while the equity portion contributed only 0.68% due to their negative correlation of -0.33, resulting in a compressed overall portfolio volatility [16][22]. - The article highlights that the long bond and equity strategy outperformed pure long bond strategies, achieving a higher Sharpe ratio of 2.47 compared to 2.02 for pure long bonds [21][41]. Group 4 - The article discusses the advantages of the long bond and equity strategy, noting that long bond funds have a higher unit risk-return ratio compared to equity funds in recent market conditions [44][45]. - It emphasizes that a stronger negative correlation between long bonds and equities allows for higher volatility exposure while maintaining lower overall portfolio volatility [46][47]. - The conclusion suggests that in the current market environment, anchoring around 2% volatility, the optimal solution is a combination of long bonds and equities, despite a potentially higher maximum drawdown compared to short bonds and equities [48].

Core Viewpoint - The investment essence of the innovative drug industry is a "high risk, high return" technology game, with value realization highly concentrated in the window of "emergence of potential blockbuster drugs → successful commercialization during patent period" [2] Group 1: Nature of Innovative Drug Investment - Innovative drug investment combines "stage-based value investment" and "probability game" due to the industry's unique characteristics [3] - The overall R&D return rate in the industry is close to zero, with a 90% failure rate in clinical stages, leading to a valuation paradox [3] - The value of companies is highly dependent on single blockbuster drugs, and without replacement products post-patent cliff, valuations can collapse [3] Group 2: Redefining Value Investment - Traditional value investment standards are difficult to apply to pure innovative drug companies due to low R&D returns and high failure rates [4] - Value creation in innovative drug companies is concentrated in the window of "potential blockbuster validation → approval → successful commercialization" [4] - The core of evaluating a drug company is the discounted cash flow of existing products and future pipelines, with blockbuster potential being a key variable [4] Group 3: Probability Game - Drug development is a high-risk process, with early pipeline value being low but exponential increases in value upon successful key clinical trials [6] - Excellent platforms and management can significantly improve success probabilities and efficiencies, although they do not guarantee success [6] - The role of platforms includes improving success rates, increasing the number of attempts, and maximizing the value of successful projects [6] Group 4: Investment Decision Framework - Investment decisions should revolve around the value verification and release cycle of potential blockbuster drugs [8] - Early-stage investments focus on companies with disruptive technology platforms or unique scientific insights, with high risk but potentially huge returns [9] - Key value inflection points occur when core pipelines enter critical clinical stages, significantly increasing success probabilities [11] Group 5: Timing and Exit Strategies - Timing is crucial; knowing when to invest is often more important than which company to invest in [19] - Investors should exit when core value drivers are disproven, growth expectations peak, or when nearing patent cliffs [17] - Continuous tracking of pipeline progress, competitive landscape, clinical data, regulatory dynamics, and sales performance is essential [19] Group 6: Final Conclusion - Innovative drug investment focuses on identifying and investing in companies experiencing non-linear value growth driven by breakthrough drugs [20] - Successful investment requires scientific insight, business judgment, probability thinking, and strict timing discipline [20]

来源：雪球 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：边城浪子1986 二、有风口预期 比如2021年中广核新能源有碳中和风口，2024年中烟香港有出海风口，2025年招金矿业有金价 大涨风口，2024年底的腾讯、阿里有Ai风口。 三、市值越小，弹性越高 在预期确定的情况下，市值越小，弹性越高。像市值偏小的中广核新能源、中烟香港都是几倍涨 幅。 而大象腾讯、阿里短期涨幅就相对小一些，因为市值越大，推动上涨所需的资金越多。 像黄金风口的招金矿业就涨不过市值较小的灵宝黄金。 一些球友对我能不断从一只好的标的，切换到另一只好的标的感到好奇。除了自己本身就花大量 时间研究和收集标的外，经常是研究到凌晨1、2点，甚至3、4点。套用一句湖远行的话：我勤奋 一点不比别人差，选出好股的人为什么不能是我呢？ 当然除了勤奋以外，我的选择投资标的的标准主要有以下几点： 一、市值偏小，但大股东实力强劲 就是标的的市值比较小，但大股东却是巨头，这样未来的想象空间和资产注入空间就比较大，容 易得到大股东的扶持，未来市值增长空间就比较大。典型的就是中烟香港。中烟香港在2024年低 位时市值 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices rebounded collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.48% [1] - The total market turnover reached 11,638 billion, an increase of 4 billion from the previous day, with nearly 3,400 stocks rising [2] Gold Market - COMEX gold futures returned to above $3,400 per ounce, driven by a declining dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The Chicago Fed President indicated that if trade-related uncertainties are resolved, the Federal Reserve could proceed with interest rate cuts in the next 15 months [4][5] Stablecoin Concept - A surge in stablecoin concept stocks was observed in the A-share market, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [7] - The Hong Kong government has officially enacted the Stablecoin Regulation, which is expected to facilitate the launch of compliant stablecoins by the end of the year [9] - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with a significant increase of over $40 billion since the end of 2024 [9] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to strengthen, with several stocks, including Shuyou Shen and Guanhao Bio, hitting the daily limit [12] - Shuyou Shen has seen a cumulative increase of 169.72% since May 21, with its market capitalization rising from under 3 billion to 15.19 billion [13] - The approval of 11 new innovative drugs by the National Medical Products Administration is expected to boost the performance of related companies [15]

今天A股休市，日韩股市以及港股开盘后全线走低。截至发稿，恒生指数跌2.5%，创新药、地产、金融等多个板块大跌。恒生科技指数开盘后也持 续走弱，盘中跌幅接近3%。 消息面上，康方生物的双抗产品AK112在HARMONi临床试验中显示出PFS显著获益，但OS数据尚未成熟，引发市场对FDA审批标准的疑虑。管理 层强调实验设计为双主要终点，任何终点显著即可视为成功。 雪球APP用户@ 仁爱的财富小足球员 ：赌海外临床风险还是很大的，FDA审批比国内更加严格，不过康方是值得尊敬的，企业头对头K药一己之力 让中国创新药举世瞩目。 雪球APP用户@ 海上生明月儿 ：今天 港股创新药 板块被 康方生物 临床数据争议拖累大跌，但板块基本面正迎转机！一季度医药利润首现反转 ， 科创板5款新药刚获批 ，叠加ASCO大会催化在，资金已连续8天抄底 港股通创新药 。错杀之下，低估值+政策红利+业绩拐点三重buff叠加，急跌 恰是黄金坑！去年康方经历过比今天还惨的一次腰斩，迎来了后面4倍多的涨幅，这一次我选择加仓港股创新药。 对于创新药下跌的情况 ， 市场分析人士指出 ， 近期 创新药演绎成了市场中的 " 逆向资产 " ， 不少个股积累 ...

朋友们端午小假期过半，让我们一起来看看电影档的表现，今年端午档电影市场迎来开门红，截至6月1日，档期票房已突破2亿元大关，远超去年 同期表现。 从票房来看，好莱坞大片《碟中谍8：最终清算》以绝对优势领跑，国产动画《时间之子》和日本经典IP《哆啦A梦：大雄的绘画奇遇记》紧随其 后。 与此同时，2025年暑期档已蓄势待发，超40部中外影片即将登场，涵盖历史战争、悬疑犯罪、动画奇幻等多类型，堪称"史上最卷暑期档"。 01 今年端午档恰"六一儿童节，电影市场迎来小高潮。 据猫眼专业版数据显示，截至6月1日8时39分，2025年端午档档期票房已突破2亿元大关，远超2024年同期表现。其中，端午档首日（5月31日） 票房达1.242亿元，较去年同期增长明显。 从票房来看，档期票房冠军毫无悬念地由好莱坞动作大片《碟中谍8：最终清算》夺得。截至6月1日9时40分，该片在中国内地的累计票房已达 1.27亿元 ，首日票房约7000万元，实现"断崖式领跑" 。 作为"碟中谍"系列第八部作品，该片由汤姆·克鲁斯主演，片长169分钟成为系列最长，延续了该系列惊险刺激的风格，包含高空飞行、深海潜行等 高难度实拍动作场面。 票房亚军和季军 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：持有封基 来源：雪球 | | | | 名称 | 今年 | 本月 | 本周 | 当天 | BIAS25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股总数量 | 5107 | 5141 | 5145 | 5145 | | | A股上涨数量 | 2988 | 3648 | 3034 | 1075 | | | A股下跌数量 | 2102 | 1460 | 2016 | 3938 | | | A股零涨幅数量 | 17 | 33 | 95 | 132 | | | 涨幅>10% | 34. 72% | 20. 27% | 5. 34% | 0. 74% | | | 涨幅>5%到10% | 10. 65% | 20. 37% | 7.66% | 1. 34% | | | 涨幅>0%到5% | 13.14% | 30. 32% | 45. 97% | 18.81% | | | 涨幅>-5%到0% | 13. 32% | 18. 32% | 34. 58% | 74. 77% | | | 涨幅> ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and cyclical nature of the solar energy industry, highlighting the current unfavorable conditions and investor hesitance due to external uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. policies [2][3][4]. Industry Summary - The solar industry is currently at a cyclical low, with unclear signs of recovery, leading to a competitive and challenging environment [2]. - Orders from upstream automation equipment manufacturers remain weak, indicating a prolonged period of low demand [2]. - Investor sentiment is cautious, with many choosing to hold onto their capital rather than risk losses amid external uncertainties [4][5]. Market Performance - Recent market activity shows a significant decline in trading volume, reflecting investor indecision and a challenging market environment [5]. - The banking sector has seen a notable rise in stock prices, contrasting with the struggles faced by the solar industry, which has experienced significant declines over the past few years [6][7]. Historical Context - A comparison of returns from the banking sector and the solar industry from 2019 to the present shows that both sectors have had similar performance, despite the solar sector's recent struggles [8]. - Historical data indicates that sectors previously considered "ugly ducklings," such as banking, can eventually outperform more popular sectors, suggesting potential for recovery in currently underperforming sectors like solar [9][10]. Long-term Investment Perspective - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of markets, suggesting that periods of underperformance can be followed by recovery, as seen in other markets [11][12]. - It highlights the importance of investing in fundamentally strong companies that can endure through cycles, as well as the significance of purchasing at favorable prices to mitigate long-term risks [19][20].