上周（2.2~2.6）黄金市场再次呈现历史罕见的巨幅震荡，周内波动率达到历史均值五倍。主要因杠杆 交易解除与新的中长期买盘交相影响市场。 市场观点方面，过往一周黄金市场的极端波动仍在加剧，周内年化波动率达到极端惊人的75%，为历史 均值的五倍之巨。主要因杠杆交易解除与新的中长期买盘交相影响市场，市场继续消化下一任美联储主 席凯文·沃什的影响，对其历史展现的货币政策倾向性以及当前美国财政和金融市场情况重新考量，未 必为必然的紧缩性前景。周内美联储多位官员发表讲话，米兰已经辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职， 意味着可能会继续担任美联储理事，也是特朗普阵营的鸽派代表，其表示美联储今年有必要将利率下调 超过100个基点。因此周内市场情绪开始逐渐修复，同时中长期资金仍逢低有望将黄金纳入配置。 周内地缘政治风险边际缓和，美国和伊朗重启谈判，第一轮谈判已经结束后续还将继续谈判。中美领导 人通电话，4月美国总统特朗普计划访华，短期风险偏好边际上升。 整体而言，在经历短期距离震荡后，前期累积的高杠杆头寸受到一定瓦解，但市场波动率仍较历史水平 显著过高，后续降波完成后或迎来较好的投资机会。 上周市场动态，美国1月制造业PMI显著回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a shift in investor sentiment towards "risk aversion" amid volatile gold prices, with increased activity in both buying and selling gold in the market [2][3] - On February 10, despite being a weekday, the Beijing Caibai Jewelry store experienced a bustling crowd, indicating a strong interest in gold transactions, particularly with large cash-outs becoming more frequent [2][6] - A notable case involved a woman selling 8 kilograms of gold bars for nearly 9 million yuan, reflecting a trend where investors are cashing out significant amounts as gold prices fluctuate [7] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly opting to sell portions of their gold holdings to manage risk, with one individual mentioning a strategy of selling some gold to lower overall costs while remaining optimistic about long-term gold price trends [7][8] - In response to the market's volatility, gold retailers like Caibai Jewelry have adjusted their business strategies, including new repurchase regulations and limits on gold buyback transactions to mitigate cash flow pressures [8] - Smaller gold bars are becoming more popular among investors, with many choosing to make multiple smaller purchases rather than large single transactions, reflecting a cautious approach to investment amid price fluctuations [10][11]

每经编辑｜程鹏 金价剧烈波动后，投资者心态正悄然生变。买卖两旺的现象重现金市，但投资主线已经转向"防风险"。 据中国证券报2月10日晚报道，2月10日虽然是工作日，但位于北京的菜百首饰总店依旧人头攒动。金价高位震荡下，大额套现频现，一位一次性卖出8公 斤金条的女士吸引了众人的目光。 "这8公斤金条是我这些年陆续买的。"王女士一边指着桌上的金条，一边翻动着手里的存单本，里面保存了她这些年来买的每一根金条的购买凭证、发 票、证书，整整齐齐，一目了然。但由于几十根金条要挨个拆开包装、称重、验金，工作人员花了一个多小时才办理好这笔业务。 投资者一次性出售数公斤黄金 图片来源：中国证券报 "这8公斤金条的回购价是1120元/克，扣除3.8元/克的手续费，一共套现近900万元。近期千万元级别套现的投资者每天都有，8公斤并不是最多的，他们大 多是前些年陆续购入的投资金条。前段时间金价持续上涨时，待价而沽的心态比较重，这几天金价高位震荡，出手的投资者明显多了。"菜百首饰工作人 员对记者表示。 一位正在排队的大爷告诉记者，自己每年都会买点金条，100克的、500克的都有，陆陆续续攒了十几公斤。虽然依旧看好金价长期走势，但为了控 ...

本周国际金价突破5000美元/盎司大关并暂时站稳高位，一份"迟到"的非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市 场风险偏好的关键变量。 国际金价再次突破关键阻力位，重回5000美元/盎司大关。 截至2月11日，伦敦金现报5064美元/盎司，盘中最高触及5069美元/盎司；伦敦银现日内大涨5%，报 84.7美元/盎司。 然而，价格突破并未激发市场追涨热情。交易人士对记者称，当前国际金价在5000美元关键关口徘徊， 市场呈现明显分化态势：中长期资金持续流入，各国央行连续增持黄金储备，机构普遍看好全年走势； 但短期投机资金趋于谨慎，交易员并未因价格突破而大举建立多头头寸，多空双方均不敢轻举妄动，市 场观望情绪浓厚。 宏观层面，美国非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市场风险偏好的关键变量。该报告不仅因政府停摆推迟发 布，更包含年度基准修正，可能大幅下修此前公布的就业数据。对于国内投资者而言，春节长假临近， 国内休市期间国际市场正常交易，汇率波动与地缘风险叠加，令持仓过节与减仓观望的抉择更添复杂 性。 黄金在5000美元高位徘徊 在经历了上周的大起大落后，国际金价本周在5000美元关键价位横盘震荡。 目前，是美国重磅经济数据的窗口期，美国非 ...

解决了"在哪炒"的问题，接下来要解决"怎么炒"更划算。2026年的市场波动加剧，意味着交易机会增多，但频繁交易也带来了成本压 力。 站在5000美元大关前的思考 步入2026年2月，全球金融市场的避险情绪依然浓厚。随着国际金价在5043美元/盎司附近高位震荡，黄金作为资产配置"压舱石"的地 位愈发稳固。对于国内许多跃跃欲试的投资者而言，现在最大的痛点并非"该不该买"，而是"在国内怎么炒黄金"才安全？面对市场上 复杂的衍生品和参差不齐的交易商，新手若想在这个波动的市场中分一杯羹，首要任务是建立正确的认知框架，选对赛道。 一、 拨开迷雾：合规渠道是第一道防线 很多新手在入门时容易被"高收益"广告误导，却忽略了最底层的安全逻辑。在目前的监管架构下，想要参与具有杠杆属性的现货黄金 交易，通过香港这一国际金融中心连接全球市场是主流且合规的路径。 这里必须通过一个硬指标来筛选：**香港黄金交易所（HKGX）**的资质认证。 香港黄金交易所是亚洲极具权威的贵金属管理机构，其行员制度等级森严。对于投资者而言，认准"AA类行员"是基础门槛。这类行 员受法律严格监管，资质可查。以行业内口碑较稳健的金盛贵金属为例，其作为香港黄金交 ...

2月10日虽然是工作日，但位于北京的菜百首饰总店依旧人头攒动。金价高位震荡下，大额套现频现， 一位一次性卖出8公斤金条的女士吸引了众人的目光。还有一部分投资者眼看金价稳住，也踊跃入市， 虽然一次性买入几公斤金条的大户不在少数，但小克重金条才是大多数购金者的最爱。 投资者心态生变 "这8公斤金条是我这些年陆续买的。"王女士一边指着桌上的金条，一边翻动着手里的存单本，里面保 存了她这些年来买的每一根金条的购买凭证、发票、证书，整整齐齐，一目了然。但由于几十根金条要 挨个拆开包装、称重、验金，工作人员花了一个多小时才办理好这笔业务。 "这8公斤金条的回购价是1120元/克，扣除3.8元/克的手续费，一共套现近900万元。近期千万元级别套 现的投资者每天都有，8公斤并不是最多的，他们大多是前些年陆续购入的投资金条。前段时间金价持 续上涨时，待价而沽的心态比较重，这几天金价高位震荡，出手的投资者明显多了。"工作人员对记者 表示。 一位正在排队的大爷表示，自己每年都会买点金条，100克的、500克的都有，陆陆续续攒了十几公斤。 虽然依旧看好金价长期走势，但为了控制风险，还是选择先卖出一部分。"前段时间金价持续上涨的时 候 ...

2月11日南方小年，国际国内金价同步反弹企稳，机构预测短期震荡上行，中长期牛市逻辑未改。 今日金价呈现"国际国内联动、现货期货分化"特点，核心数据如下： （一）国际黄金市场 （二）国内黄金市场 1. 期货及现货（上海黄金交易所） 2. 线下金店及银行金条 春节临近，实物黄金消费旺季来临，金店价多数上涨、品牌价差明显，银行金条价平稳（金店溢价高，银行金条更适合纯投资）。 四、实用提示 1. 实物消费：选款式、对比价差，留存购买凭证。 金店（足金999）： 周大福、周生生：1560.0元/克（分别+5.26%、+5.12%） 老凤祥：1556.0元/克（+3.73%） 周大生：1550.0元/克（-0.64%） 金至尊：1480.0元/克（-4.70%） 银行金条： 建行：1135.42元/克（-0.77%） 工行：1138.47元/克（-0.73%） 中行：1139.02元/克（-0.81%） 平安、浦发银行：1136.40、1204.00元/克（持平） 地缘风险发酵：中东局势紧张、俄乌冲突未消，避险资金流入。 实物需求支撑：春节临近，婚嫁、压岁等需求集中释放。 央行购金+技术面：全球及中国央行持续购金，叠加技 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major gold brands in China are tightening their buyback policies in response to recent fluctuations in gold prices, leading to increased consumer interest in trade-in options instead of direct buybacks [3][15]. Buyback Policy Changes - Many leading brands have suspended buyback services on weekends and holidays, resulting in a surge in buyback activity on the first working day after these suspensions [3]. - Brands like Cai Bai and China Gold have implemented new buyback regulations, including limits on the amount that can be repurchased per customer per day and requiring appointments for transactions [6][9]. - Consumers must provide original purchase receipts, valid ID, and bank cards to complete buyback transactions, making the process more stringent [4][9]. Impact on Consumer Behavior - The tightening of buyback policies has led consumers to consider trade-in options, which have lower barriers to entry and are more widely available across stores [12]. - Trade-in programs often do not impose the same level of fees as direct buybacks, making them more attractive to consumers [10][14]. Fee Structures - Buyback fees vary significantly between brands, with some charging up to 5% to 8% of the buyback price, translating to deductions of 60 to 100 yuan per gram of gold based on current market prices [10][12]. - For example, Cai Bai deducts 3.8 yuan per gram for its own gold bars, while non-brand gold bars incur a deduction of 30 yuan per gram [10]. Market Dynamics - The tightening of buyback policies is seen as a risk management strategy by brands to cope with market volatility and protect their assets [15]. - Analysts suggest that while the buyback process has become less convenient, the intrinsic value of gold as a long-term asset remains intact [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - Consumers are advised to choose gold products based on their intended use, whether for decoration or as a means of asset preservation, and to be aware of the varying buyback rules across different channels [17]. - It is recommended that consumers maintain a balanced approach to gold investment, especially during periods of market volatility [17].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices have seen them rebound to the critical level of $5,000 per ounce after experiencing significant volatility, driven by a combination of rational valuation recovery and expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analysts note that after a sharp decline, gold prices have stabilized as investors are attracted to lower prices, and fears regarding the Federal Reserve's policy have eased [1] - The latest U.S. employment data, which was weaker than expected, has increased market expectations for the Fed's accommodative policies, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] - The market sentiment surrounding gold prices is sensitive and can lead to significant fluctuations based on news events, but fundamental factors supporting gold prices are expected to persist [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The trend of international economic and political multipolarity suggests that the downward trend of the dollar and the upward trend of gold will continue for some time, with non-U.S. central banks likely to increase gold holdings to mitigate geopolitical and financial risks [1] - Morgan Stanley's commodity research indicates that global central bank gold purchases are expected to remain high at around 755 tons by 2026, significantly above historical averages prior to 2022 [1] - UBS analysts highlight that the traditional logic of real interest rates driving gold prices is weakening, with gold's safe-haven attributes and credit reassessment becoming dual driving forces [2] Group 3: Price Forecasts - Wells Fargo has raised its year-end gold price target for 2026 to a range of $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce, while Deutsche Bank maintains a long-term forecast of $6,000 per ounce [2] - Experts emphasize that current gold prices have significantly deviated from traditional cost ranges, driven more by market sentiment, geopolitical factors, and central bank purchasing behavior rather than high-yield speculative motives [2]

近期，现货黄金价格在经历急涨暴跌的"过山车"行情后，重新站上了5000美元/盎司的关键关口。 "过去主导金价的实际利率逻辑效力减弱，避险属性与信用重估成为双重驱动力。"瑞银集团贵金属策略 师在报告中写道。 摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师表示，近期金价走势属于短期冲高回落后反转，是消化前期过快涨幅 的阶段性调整，并非长期涨势终结。其预测金价未来数周或数月将进入宽幅震荡区间。 富国银行将2026年黄金年终目标价上调至每盎司6100至6300美元区间。德意志银行贵金属分析师薛家康 (Michael Hsueh)维持了金价长期触及6000美元/盎司的预测。 与此同时，多位专家强调，当前黄金已大幅脱离传统成本区间，高位价格更多由市场情绪、地缘政治及 各国央行购金行为驱动。黄金本质并非高收益投机标的，普通投资者应警惕短期投机炒作行为。 （中国新闻网） 金价大跌后逐渐震荡企稳，东方金诚研究发展部分析师瞿瑞认为，这一方面源于暴跌后，金价估值回归 理性，吸引投资者逢低入场。另一方面，市场认识到美联储短期内难以改变宽松交易的趋势，恐慌情绪 有所缓和。此外，最新公布的美国就业数据超预期疲弱，提升了市场对美联储宽松政策的预期，也为金 ...