Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve does not need to rush to adjust interest rate policies as current data supports a wait-and-see approach, particularly the weakening relationship between confidence data and spending data [1] Trump Tariffs - The impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation may be temporary; if the tariffs remain in place, the Federal Reserve will struggle to make progress on its dual policy goals of price stability and employment [1] - Businesses are delaying investment decisions, and households are postponing consumption expenditures, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to take preemptive action [1] - Trade negotiations could significantly alter the current situation [1] Inflation and Employment - The potential inflation outlook appears favorable, with data likely to easily meet one of the Federal Reserve's dual targets of price stability and employment [1] Central Bank Independence - Statements from Trump are not expected to affect the Federal Reserve's operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential successor to the Federal Reserve Chair and a Trump ally, criticized the Federal Reserve for systemic errors in managing the worst inflation in a generation, highlighting a crisis of credibility due to its overreach and inconsistent policies [2][6]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Warsh accused the Federal Reserve of failing to control inflation and described its independence as a "conditional contract," suggesting that the public's trust has been severely undermined by the Fed's actions [2][6]. - He emphasized that the Fed's role has become increasingly blurred, as it has intervened deeply in U.S. economic decisions, leading to systemic biases in macroeconomic policy [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Policy Concerns - Warsh reflected on his tenure during the 2008 financial crisis, noting that the Fed's unconventional policies were initially necessary but have since led to a dangerous entanglement with fiscal policy [3][4]. - He expressed concern that the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) policies have evolved into a nearly perpetual tool, with the balance sheet expanding to $7 trillion, ten times its size when he joined [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Fed's Actions - The Fed's involvement in non-traditional areas, such as climate policy and social equity, has diluted its core mission of maintaining price stability and full employment, leading to potential negative consequences for the very groups it aims to protect [5][6]. - Warsh warned that the Fed's independence is not an inherent privilege but a design to achieve specific policy goals, and its credibility is at risk if it continues to overstep its boundaries [6][7]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - To restore its credibility and independence, the Fed must refocus on price stability and rebuild trust in its professional domain, ensuring that its actions yield tangible benefits for the public [7].

TradeMax发现在全球经济局势错综复杂的背景下，美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔在国际舞台上的发声，不仅 关乎美国货币政策走向，更引发了各界对央行独立性的深度探讨。 有知情人士透露，在世界各国财长会议上，杰罗姆・鲍威尔着重强调了央行保持独立于政治影响的必要 性。他认为，唯有如此，央行才能将全部精力聚焦于维持通胀稳定以及推动高就业率这两大核心目标上。 上周五，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织的会议中，面向众多决策者和财政部长发表讲话，言辞恳切且极具说 服力，全力捍卫央行的独立性。他这番坚定的表态，赢得了现场观众热烈的掌声，后续发言的同行们也纷 纷发表了同样激昂且支持央行独立性的言论。面对外界的关注，美联储发言人选择不对此事发表评论。 鲍威尔此番强调央行独立性的言论，有着特殊的背景。在其发言之前，美国总统特朗普在近段时间多次于 公开场合抨击鲍威尔。特朗普在社交媒体上直接称鲍威尔为 "重大输家"，并且再度强烈要求美联储降低利 率。此外，特朗普甚至还公开提及解雇鲍威尔一事，这些言论迅速在华尔街引发了强烈震动，投资者们忧 心忡忡，担心央行的独立性会因此受到威胁。尽管特朗普随后表示并无解雇美联储主席的意图，但此前的 一系列言论已经造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jerome Powell emphasizes the necessity of central bank independence to maintain stable inflation and high employment, rejecting political influence [1][2][3] Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Powell asserts that the Federal Reserve must operate without political pressure, ensuring that policy decisions are made based on economic conditions rather than external factors [2][3] - The recent comments from President Trump criticizing Powell have raised concerns among investors about the potential threat to the Fed's independence [1][4] Group 2: Economic Strategy and Challenges - The Federal Reserve is adopting a strategy of maintaining stable interest rates while being prepared to lower them if necessary to prevent labor market collapse, reflecting a cautious approach to economic management [3][4] - Powell's leadership is being tested as the Fed faces challenges from rising inflation and the impact of Trump's tariffs, which have complicated the economic outlook [4][5] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Recent inflation readings have exceeded expectations, with core inflation at 2.8% in February, prompting concerns about the Fed's ability to maintain price stability [4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the trade war could increase the likelihood of a recession, further complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Trump's aggressive trade policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is intensifying, with Trump criticizing Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy amid rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions [1][3][11]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Criticism - Trump has previously criticized Powell's interest rate hikes, claiming they stifle economic growth, and has hinted at wanting Powell to resign [3]. - Trump attempted to use public opinion and legal avenues to remove Powell, threatening to fire him and exploring the possibility of doing so under "just cause" [3][6]. - Following warnings from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross about potential market turmoil from Powell's dismissal, Trump stated he had "never intended" to remove Powell but continued to criticize the Fed's policies [4][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has maintained its independence, emphasizing that monetary policy should not be influenced by political pressures [3][8]. - The Fed's internal unity is strong, with officials collectively defending their independence and emphasizing the need to combat inflation [7][8]. - The release of the Fed's Beige Book highlighted the negative impacts of tariffs, including rising costs and supply chain issues, which Powell used to reinforce the Fed's stance against political interference [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Financial markets reacted negatively to the rumors of Powell's potential dismissal, with significant sell-offs in stocks and bonds [4][7]. - The Beige Book reported widespread "cost-push inflation" across the U.S., with specific examples of industries facing severe cost increases and layoffs [7][8]. - As the 2026 elections approach, the ongoing conflict between the Fed's independence and political pressures will continue to shape economic conditions and market confidence in the U.S. financial system [11].

摘要今日周日市场休市。周五（4月25日）黄金t+d收报784.80元/克，下跌1.08%，日内最高上探800.00 元/克，最低触及780.90元/克。 今日周日市场休市。周五（4月25日）黄金t+d收报784.80元/克，下跌1.08%，日内最高上探800.00元/ 克，最低触及780.90元/克。 周二，美国总统特朗普表示，他没有罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的计划，但表示他希望降息，"我希望看到 他在降低利率方面更加积极主动一些。"为此市场担忧情绪有所缓和，但到周三，特朗普言论再变，表 示他还没有给美联储主席鲍威尔打电话，但补充说他可能会打电话。 国际货币基金组织首席经济学家和欧洲央行行长声援鲍威尔，强调央行必须保持独立性，国际货币基金 组织(IMF)首席经济学家古兰沙周二被问及美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的抨击时强调保持央行 独立性以维护其对抗通胀的公信力的重要性。 古兰沙称，各国央行在管理通胀方面面临着一个微妙的时刻，尤其是在美国这样的国家，特朗普对进口 商品加征关税预计将刺激通胀。 他称："关键是要确保通胀预期保持锚定，确保每个人都相信央行将采取必要行动，有序地推动通胀回 到央行的目标水平。"他表示，央 ...

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) held its 51st International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) meeting, discussing global economic conditions and the need for a strong, well-resourced IMF to ensure financial stability [1] - The meeting highlighted the increasing trade tensions and their impact on economic growth and financial stability, emphasizing the importance of member countries completing the domestic approval process for the 16th quota review [1] - The IMF's quota adjustments should better reflect members' relative weight in the global economy while protecting the voice of the poorest countries [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of central bank independence during the IMFC meeting, stating that political pressures will not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Powell's remarks received strong support from attendees, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who praised his commitment to maintaining financial stability [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time in the upcoming policy meeting [2][3] Group 3 - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng expressed concerns over weak global economic growth and highlighted the negative impact of unilateral trade policies on international economic order [4] - Pan emphasized China's willingness to deepen cooperation with the IMF to enhance global economic and financial stability [4] - He also noted that China's macroeconomic policies will remain proactive to support economic recovery amid rising uncertainties in the global economy [6]

美联储主席鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织会议上，发表了一场激情四射的央行独立性辩护演讲，赢得了与会财长们的热烈掌声。 美联储坚守政策立场，欧央行力挺 4月26日媒体报道，鲍威尔周五在国际货币基金组织（IMF）的会议上强调央行必须远离政治干预，以确保它们能专注于维持通胀稳定和就业率高企。鲍威 尔言论引发与会者多轮掌声，随后他的同行们也发表了同样充满激情的讲话。 美联储将于周六开始进入5月6-7日政策会议前的例行静默期。市场普遍预期，下周美联储利率决议将连续第三次维持利率不变。 这番表态发生在特朗普周初再次公开批评鲍威尔之后。本周早些时候，特朗普在社交媒体上称鲍威尔为"重大输家"，并希望再次推动美联储降息。这些评论 ——加上特朗普此前公开考虑解雇鲍威尔的言论——在华尔街引发了不安，因为投资者担心美联储的独立性可能受到威胁。 分析称，鲍威尔和其他官员已表示愿意暂时按兵不动，部分原因是防范特朗普关税政策可能导致持续通胀的可能性。 报道指出，鲍威尔一贯强调央行独立性的重要性，并表示美联储官员制定政策时不会考虑政治因素。4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部，鲍威尔明确指出，他和 同事们只有在"有正当理由"的情况下才会被解职。同时表示： ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（2026年FOMC票委）：独立性是各大央行的根基。 ...

据极目新闻报道，特朗普在社交媒体发文再次公开抨击鲍威尔，称他行动"又迟又错"，并要求美联储效仿欧洲央行降 息。据环球网援引美国《华尔街日报》报道，因为鲍威尔屡次拒绝降息，特朗普数月来一直在私下讨论"炒掉"他。美联 储主席鲍威尔日前在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时，明确表示不会因市场波动而采取紧急救市措施。他表示，美联储将 观望特朗普加征关税对经济和通货膨胀有何影响，称他愿意花时间等待形势更加明朗，然后再考虑进一步降息。 美国总统特朗普（资料图） 本月初，特朗普推动"对等关税"，结果导致美元汇率接连下跌，美债市场也一直处于崩盘的边缘。为了应对这波冲击， 特朗普频频暗示美联储"赶紧加息"，因为只有美元回暖，美国的国际地位才会稳固，美债才能有所好转。可鲍威尔却 以"市场风险"为理由，坚决说不，加息的事儿那是不谈。在特朗普入主之前，美联储已经做过两次降息，把时钟拨回到 2023年，看来鲍威尔并不打算与特朗普政府在这方面协调。 随着特朗普政府与美联储的矛盾全面公开化，这场酝酿数月的金融权力争夺战已进入决战阶段。作为全球最大经济体的 中央银行，美联储的特殊性质决定了这场博弈的深远影响——它不仅关乎美国经济政策的走向，更触及谁 ...