鲍威尔在国会听证会上的发言尤为关键。他指出，如果不是因为关税带来的前景不确定性，美联储本可以 更有信心地推进宽松措施。这一表态折射出美联储在面对通胀数据逐步回落的同时，仍对中期物价走势保 持高度警惕。 尽管美国通胀数据显示持续温和回落迹象，本周多位美联储官员却集体传递出更为谨慎的信号，明确强调 需要再观察几个月，以判断关税所引发的物价上涨是否会对整体通胀形成持续性影响。这一表态为市场此 前对7月降息的预期泼了一盆冷水，也引发了外界对美联储政策路径稳定性的再度关注。 美联储理事ChristopherWaller和副主席MichelleBowman曾释放出相对鸽派的信号，暗示若通胀持续缓解， 他们可能支持在7月政策会议上启动降息进程。然而，这种预期很快被包括主席鲍威尔、纽约联储行长 Williams以及旧金山联储行长Daly等核心政策制定者所否定，他们几乎异口同声强调，目前尚不具备立即 调整利率的基础。 靠近，以及劳动力市场是否显现出更明显的疲软迹象。市场在此期间仍需对"短期内降息"的预期保持适度 保留。 关税因素成为当前政策制定的关键变量。自今年春季以来，美国政府针对多个国家加征关税，已在部分输 入型商品价格上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to maintain interest rates for a period of time and does not rule out the possibility of further rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate level of the ECB is considered to be in a neutral position, which is viewed positively [1] - The inflation risks are currently seen as two-sided, indicating potential volatility in future economic conditions [1]

欧洲央行管委诺特：通胀风险目前是双向的。 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal, but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels from Iran, which increased exports by 44% to an average of 2.33 million barrels per day[17] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, but this does not guarantee a reversal; the crowded short positions may face pressure if unexpected events occur[28] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations fully pricing in two rate cuts for 2025[39] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised down, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth expected at 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[45] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 set at 3%[45] Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight decline of 0.15% during the week of June 14-21, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.21%[31] - Oil prices rose by 2.09% during the same week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[31] - The risk premium for US stocks remains low, indicating potential vulnerability to rising interest rates and declining economic fundamentals[20]

Group 1: Tariff Effects - Powell indicated that the proposed tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a "one-time increase" in prices, but the actual impact may exceed traditional economic model predictions [3] - The final scale, implementation pace, and market response to tariffs will determine the inflation transmission path, with potential for short-term price pressures to evolve into persistent risks [3] - The Federal Reserve must be vigilant about tariffs amplifying inflation pressures through multiple channels, such as increased terminal prices due to rising import costs and accelerated consumer spending in anticipation of price hikes [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - In light of tariff uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's decision-making logic is becoming clearer, with Powell stating that the current tariff plan's scale far exceeds the pilot phase of 2018 [4] - Historical experience has limited reference value due to enhanced global economic interconnectedness, necessitating observation of actual tariff impacts on corporate pricing behavior and consumer responses before assessing policy response space [4] - The market's expectation of two rate cuts within the year remains uncertain, contingent on summer inflation data and trade negotiation progress [4] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's cautious stance is directly related to policy divergences with the Trump administration, which continues to call for rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5] - Powell reiterated that monetary policy should be based on economic data rather than political considerations, amidst questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - The initiation of the process to select Powell's successor by Trump has heightened market concerns regarding policy continuity, with Powell's term ending in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Market Impact - The interplay between tariff and monetary policies is injecting uncertainty into financial markets, particularly affecting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] - Gold prices may be supported by inflation expectations if tariffs drive actual inflation, while a softening economic data could accelerate easing and suppress gold price performance [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor industry specifics related to tariff implementation, Federal Reserve officials' statements, and core PCE inflation data to capture signals of policy turning points [7]

日本央行在去年结束了持续十年的大规模刺激计划，并在今年1月将短期利率上调至0.5%，认为日本正 接近可持续实现2%通胀目标的门槛。 虽然日本央行已表明愿意进一步加息，但美国关税带来的经济影响迫使其下调增长预期，也使下一次加 息的时机变得更加复杂。而与此同时，日本的消费者通胀已连续三年超过日本央行2%的目标，原因是 企业持续将不断上升的原材料成本转嫁给消费者。 田村直树指出，日本4月和5月的消费者通胀数据强于预期，近期食品价格的上涨可能由劳动力长期短缺 和气候变化等结构性因素推动。他还表示，随着价格上涨变得更为普遍，日本中长期的通胀预期正逐步 上升。他表示："我个人认为，应将重点放在企业和家庭的通胀预期上，因为他们才是经济活动的真正 推动者。我认为企业和家庭的预期已经大致达到了2%。""当我们实现物价稳定目标的可能性上升，或 价格上行风险增大时，即使面临更高的不确定性，我们也可能面临需要果断采取行动的局面。" 日本央行在上周的政策会议上将利率维持在0.5%不变，并表示将从下一财年开始放慢削减购债步伐。 作为前商业银行家，田村直树是唯一反对日本央行从下一财年开始放慢削减购债步伐的委员，他主张维 持当前的削减购债步 ...

张津镭：避险降温+鹰派狙击！金价短线择高进空 昨日黄金走了一个跌势行情，开盘便开始走低，午盘在跌破3350后提前进场空单，随后开始大幅回落。 美盘刷新日内低点至3295一线，空单于3310上方提前止盈离场。美盘尾盘有所反弹，最终金价是收盘于 3323美元，日线收于一根阴线。 周三（6月25日）昨日以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，导致避险情绪快速消退，黄金一度暴跌超30美元， 但随后因市场对协议执行的疑虑出现修复性反弹。另外，美联储理事鲍曼明确表示"2024年不会降息"， 并强调通胀风险，也打压黄金多头信心。 可以说，现在中东局势仍是最大变量。若两方停火越久对于黄金打压就会越狠，金价自然会逐步下探。 当然，目前3300关口还是有不少支撑的，若是晚间美联储主席鲍威尔讲话有鸽派倾向，那么黄金还有会 反弹一些的。反之，继续鹰派将会继续打压金价。 从技术上来看，隔夜黄金在回撤3300下方后回弹，目前回弹至3330上方，技术上已经是到位的状态了， 日内可着重关注3330-40一带压力争夺情况，可侧重于在此区域再搏短空。日内下方则关注3320、3300 的再争夺情况，无论今日是否会回到3300之下去，只要今日不翻上3350之上站 ...

据金融界消息，美国财政部数据显示，外资在4月减持美国国债，是5个月来首次。中国期内减持80亿美元美债，持有规模降 至7570亿美元，是2009年以来最低。外资在3月持有的美债金额达到9.049万亿美元，创下纪录新高，4月底时持有美债的规模 则回落至9.013万亿美元，减幅为361亿美元。美国总统特朗普在4月2日公布对等关税后，国债收益率一度急升，市场当时传 闻有外国政府不满对等关税，大手抛售美债。 特朗普（资料图） 在特朗普政府关税计划带来的通胀风险面前，美联储连续4个月维持上述利率不变的决定，无疑更符合市场预期。决议声明 也中提到，尽管失业率依然较低，劳动力市场状态保持良好，关于经济前景的不确定性也有所下降，但由于一系列经济变量 仍未确定，美联储更倾向于耐心等待。简单来说，无论特朗普如何施压，美联储都只会基于市场走向来调整货币政策；至于 何时降息、降息幅度如何，则要看当时的经济状态。 近日，美国资深学者、前标普全球首席经济学家谢尔德在接受美媒记者采访的时候，发表了一番"高谈阔论"，声称"美国政府 作为'永续实体'，因此债务并不需要还清"。在他看来，债务问题应该被视为一种将购买力转移至未来的机制。并且他还强 ...

日本央行审议委员田村直树：截至3月通胀风险大幅上升。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们在通胀风险方面保持谨慎。 ...