2025年5月6日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2008，下调（人民币升值）6点； 欧元/人民币报8.1535，下调715点； 港元/人民币报0.92903，上调9点； 英镑/人民币报9.5808，下调1059点； 澳元/人民币报4.6617，上调440点； 加元/人民币报5.2202，下调96点； 100日元/人民币报5.0269，下调603点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1706，下调1127点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3034，上调38点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58306，下调153.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7664，上调24点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5872，上调653点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar showed a significant appreciation, closing at 7.2011, marking a rise of 119 points from the previous Friday's close, continuing the upward trend from last week [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Performance** - The CNH traded within a range of 7.2199 to 7.1845 during the day [1] - The currency approached a peak of 7.1457, which is expected to be reached on November 8, 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surpassed the 7.20 mark, reaching a new high since December 2024, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and policy measures to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The onshore RMB is expected to experience a rebound following the recent trends in the offshore market, with predictions of a potential increase in the exchange rate [1] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which fell below 100, indicates a weakening of the dollar, further supporting the RMB's strength [1] Group 2 - Experts believe that the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, driven by domestic economic recovery, increased confidence, and effective governance mechanisms [2] - The Chinese economy's large market size, complete industrial system, and rich human resources contribute positively to the stability of the RMB [2] - The pressure for RMB depreciation may have peaked, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation process in the exchange rate, albeit with smaller amplitude [3] Group 3 - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks, with ongoing monitoring and management of foreign exchange conditions [3] - Authorities are expected to continue strengthening foreign exchange monitoring and maintain exchange rate flexibility while enriching macro-prudential management tools for cross-border capital flows [3]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has appreciated, breaking the 7.19 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by multiple factors including the US-China trade dialogue and strong consumption during the May Day holiday [1][2] - On May 2, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate saw a significant increase, with a single-day rise exceeding 600 basis points, and on May 5, it continued to rise, touching 7.18940 with an intraday increase of over 130 basis points [2] - Analysts attribute the RMB appreciation to several factors, including positive signals from the US regarding tariff negotiations, strong domestic consumption during the holiday, and increased foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds amid heightened global market volatility [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable with a solid foundation, fluctuating around a reasonable equilibrium level [3] - The domestic economic fundamentals have improved since late last year, with factors such as economic recovery, confidence boosting, risk mitigation, and technological empowerment contributing to the stability of the RMB [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to enhance market resilience and stabilize expectations while preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3]

5月伊始，人民币汇率表现强劲。5月5日，离岸人民币对美元汇率持续走高，盘中升穿7.19关口，一度上涨超200基点，最高升值至7.189，为2024年11月 以来首次。同期美元指数跌至100关口下方，日内小幅走贬。 延续前一交易日的升值走势，5月5日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中强势上行，从7.21关口上方升破7.19，最高升值至7.189。在触及升值高点后，离岸人民 币对美元汇率有所回落，围绕7.2关口波动。截至当日17时25分，离岸人民币对美元报7.2036，日内涨幅为0.11%。 美元指数方面，在4月21日失守98美元后，美元指数止住下跌势头，小幅波动回升至100美元附近。截至5月5日17时25分，美元指数日内下跌0.32%，报 99.7174。消息面上，美国总统特朗普最新表示，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。消息 发布后，美元指数走低。 回顾4月外汇市场整体表现，受"对等关税"等外围因素影响，4月全球经济与金融市场动荡加剧，人民币汇率、美元指数一度齐跌。相较其他主流货币，人 民币对美元的走势较为稳定。在岸人民币对美元汇率、离岸人民币对美元汇率在波动中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.20 mark for the first time since November 2024, driven by reduced risk sentiment and market optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations [2][5]. Exchange Rate Movement - Since reaching a low of 7.4, the offshore RMB has appreciated nearly 2.7% from April 8 to the present [2]. - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD rate peaked at 7.1892 before slightly retreating to around 7.2041 by the end of the day [2]. - The recent surge began on April 30, with the offshore RMB rising from 7.27 to below 7.20, marking a 1% increase [2]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market expectations of progress in US-China trade talks and reduced tensions have contributed to the RMB's strength [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted the US's willingness to negotiate on tariffs, which has been positively received by the market [5]. - A crowded long position in the USD and changing market dynamics regarding US economic conditions have triggered a new wave of USD selling [5]. Regional Currency Trends - The RMB's rise coincides with appreciation in other Asia-Pacific currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, South Korean Won, and Thai Baht, all gaining over 1% against the USD [6]. - The Hong Kong Dollar has also strengthened, reaching its trading limit, influenced by the strong performance of the RMB and capital inflows from mainland China [6][7]. Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - Significant capital inflows from mainland China into Hong Kong have been observed, with net purchases through the Stock Connect channels reaching 570.9 billion CNY in 2025 [7]. - The upcoming dividend payments from Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, totaling 36.1 billion USD, are expected to increase demand for the Hong Kong Dollar [7]. Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in the second quarter but may stabilize over the year due to potential macroeconomic stimulus measures from the Chinese government [8]. - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to implement further monetary easing, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8]. - The future trajectory of the RMB will depend on the progress of US-China negotiations and the potential recovery of Chinese exports [8][9].

5月5日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率持续走强，盘中一度升破7.19关口，为2024年11月以来首次。 时隔半年，离岸人民币兑美元汇率终于站上7.20的关键心理关口，反映出市场对人民币汇率的乐观预 期。市场人士指出，对于"五一"假日期间人民币汇率的大幅升值，可以看作是一次市场预期调整带来的 补涨。 人民币强势回归，美方多次表态愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判 "五一"假日期间，人民币汇率持续走高是多因素综合作用的结果。5月2日，中国商务部新闻发言人表 示，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面 多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 内部方面，一季度中国经济和外贸在压力下展现出较强的韧性。数据显示，初步核算，一季度中国国内 生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。一季度，我国货物贸易进出口10.3万亿 元人民币，同比增长1.3%。其中，出口6.13万亿元，增长6.9%。一季度中国经济的亮眼表现，对人民币 汇率估值形成支撑。 在政策层面，近日央行副行长邹澜表示，下一阶段，中国人民银行将坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮 子货币进 ...

倘若此时人民币相对美元升值，则中国的投资者可能会愈发倾向于持有美元资产，以享受更高的收益；反之，若人民币贬值，中国的投资者可能会转向人民 币资产以寻求更高的回报。然而，这种理论上的推演并不能完全涵盖现实的复杂性，实际情况往往远比想象中更加纷繁。 在这纷繁复杂的经济世界中，汇率如同波涛汹涌的大海，时而平静，时而狂澜，然而其背后的原因往往并非简单明了。美国的加息政策，与人民币的升贬值 之间，并不存在一种明确的因果关系。非但如此，美联储的加息决策就如同一场精心编排的交响乐，受着诸多乐器的影响：经济形势的起落、通胀压力的隐 现、就业市场的波动……这些都共同塑造了一个复杂而微妙的金融生态。 在这个动态的金融市场中，汇率是尤为重要的一条线索。当美联储挥动加息的魔杖，美元的利率便会随之上升，随之而来的可能是人民币在对比其他货币时 的贬值或升值。但具体的现象却是由诸多因素交织而成，家国情怀、国际政治的云谲 waves，皆是其间不可忽视的重要元素。本文将探讨美元加息与人民币 汇率的复杂关系，愿能为诸君解开一些疑团。 首先，何谓美元加息？这其实是美国联邦储备委员会决定提高联邦基金利率的一种表现。对于全球的金融市场而言，这如同投下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November last year, indicating a significant appreciation in the currency's value [1]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB rose over 130 points, breaking the 7.20 threshold against the USD [1]. - The New Taiwan Dollar also experienced a significant increase, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping to 29.50, a 3.95% decline, marking the highest level since February 8, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at Bank of China, the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, supported by domestic economic recovery and confidence [2]. - Positive factors such as policy shifts since late last year, risk mitigation, and technological empowerment are contributing to the stability of the RMB [2]. - China possesses significant institutional advantages, including a large market, complete industrial system, and effective governance mechanisms, which bolster its ability to withstand external shocks [2]. Group 3: Capital Market Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, with a clear policy stance and the capability to manage market expectations [3]. - The PBOC has substantial foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, enhancing its ability to stabilize the RMB in offshore markets [2]. Group 4: Cross-Border RMB Usage - In Q1, cross-border RMB transactions with Malaysia reached 102 billion RMB, a 27% year-on-year increase, while transactions with Cambodia grew by 45% to 5 billion RMB [4]. - The surge in cross-border RMB usage reflects deepening monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [4]. - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, linking projects and finance [4].

人民币汇率保持稳定具有坚实基础 作 者丨林秋彤，胡慧茵 编 辑丨肖嘉，李莹亮，江佩佩 截至5月5日1 0 : 3 1，离岸人民币对美元升破7 . 2 0关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨逾1 3 0点。 另外，新台币也大涨。美元兑新台币盘初跌破3 0大关，报2 9 . 5 0，日内跌3 . 9 5%，为2 0 2 3年2月8日以来新高。 富时中国A5 0指数期货直线拉升，最新报涨0 . 5 7%。美元指数快速走低，现报9 9 . 6 6。 | W | | | | 富时中国A50期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | CN.SG | | | | | | 13228 | | | 昨结 | | 13153 | 开营 | | 13157 | | +75 | | +0.57% | 总手 | | 4.69万 | 现手 | | 2 | | 最高价 | | 13268 | 持 | | 81万 | Ar | 型 | 2万 | | 最低价 | | 13156 | 增 仓 | | 1万 | | 2 | 2万 | | ...