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【Choice直播】戴康:关税冲击下的策略再平衡
戴康的策略世界· 2025-04-22 07:14
者司机"戴"你上车 投资新范式 把脉全球资产配置 | 广发证券发展研究中心董事总经理 戴康 CFA 首席资产研究官 新浪财经金麒麟白金分析师 欢迎关注微信公众会 包揽:2014-2023年新财富最佳分析师、金牛奖、 戴康的策略世界 水晶球等所有重要奖项 著书《策略投资:从方法论到进化论》 Choice数据 总量视野 · 策略 关税冲击下的 策略再平衡 荣获京东图书2023百大好书 关税冲击下的策略再平衡 直播时间:4月23日 周三 15:00 直播看点: 1、关税冲击:新范式下的全球秩序重建 2、中国应对:反脆弱政策与策略博弈 3、资产配置:优化全天候策略 4、总结:核心策略与尾部风险 ...
【Choice直播】戴康:关税冲击下的策略再平衡
戴康的策略世界· 2025-04-22 07:14
点击蓝空"戴康的策略世界"关注我们《! 右上角假芝国冠冠,更新内容第一时间推送~了 者司机"或" 你上车 投资新范式 把脉全球资产配置 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心董事总经理 首席资产研究官 新浪财经金麒麟白金分析师 策略投资 包揽:2014-2023年新财富最佳分析师、金牛奖 戴康的策略世界 水晶球等所有重要奖项 著书《策略投资:从方法论到进化论》 荣获京东图书2023百大好书 Choice数据 关税冲击下的策略再平衡 总量视野 · 策略 关税冲击下的 策略再平衡 4、总结:核心策略与尾部风险 T 直播时间:4月23日 周三 15:00 直播看点: 1、关税冲击:新范式下的全球秩序重建 2、中国应对:反脆弱政策与策略博弈 3、资产配置:优化全天候策略 ...
热点思考 | 财政“续力”正当时
申万宏源研究· 2025-04-22 02:39
贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人: 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 摘要 事件: 4月18日,财政部公布2025年一季度财政收支情况。一季度,全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元, 同比下降1.1%;全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元,同比增长4.2%。 点评:财政"续力"正当时,储备政策推出节奏值得重点关注 政府债务融资等对财政支出形成有效支撑。 2025年3月,广义财政收支差达-2.3万亿元,规模高于2020- 2024年同期平均的1.2万亿元;一般财政收支差-1.3万亿元,而2020-2024年同期平均为-0.5万亿元,或指 向国债、新增一般债等资金对一季度一般财政支持形成有效支撑;政府性基金收支差-1.1万亿元,节奏近 似2022年同期。 新增专项债及特别国债发行预计提速,或推动二季度财政支出维持高增速。 从25省市已公布地方债发行 计划来看,二季度地方债中新增专项债计划发行9748亿元,较一季度发行规模增长36.5%。同时,1.3万 亿元特别国债将于4月24日开启发行,10月10日发行完毕;从发行节奏上看,本轮特别国债较2024年提早 近1个月发行完毕。 全年来看,应对关税"冲击",财政支出加码 ...
【宏观周报】国内一季度经济超预期增长,欧央行再降息25基点应对关税冲击-20250421
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 07:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that China's Q1 2025 economy exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to address tariff impacts. The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as tariffs, inflation, and employment affecting different countries' economies [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP and Consumption**: In Q1 2025, China's GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, growing 5.4% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year-on-year increase. In March, it grew 5.9% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than January - February [4][21]. - **Investment**: Q1 fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 10.3174 trillion yuan, a 4.2% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate development investment, it grew 6.3%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments increased by 5.8% and 9.1% respectively [4][21]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In Q1, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% [21]. - **Exports and Imports**: In March, exports increased by 13.5% in RMB terms and 12.4% in US dollars. Imports decreased by 3.5% in RMB and 4.3% in US dollars. The improvement in March exports may be related to pre - export, and the future foreign trade situation remains severe [5]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - **Social Financing**: In Q1 2025, the cumulative social financing increment was 15.18 trillion yuan, with 5.89 trillion yuan in March, a year - on - year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan. Loans and government bonds are the main factors supporting social financing [35]. - **Credit**: In Q1, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with 3.4 trillion yuan in March. The credit structure was further optimized, and the effective demand continued to recover [35]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, affecting the CPI decrease [41]. - **PPI**: In March, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in international commodity prices [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Inflation**: In March 2025, the US CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.4% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, still higher than the Fed's target [48]. - **US Employment**: In March, the US non - farm sector added 228,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data was better than expected [49]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The RMB against the US dollar has shown two - way fluctuations. Recently, it was under pressure but remained within a range. Short - term risks include Fed policy divergence and geopolitical instability [56]. - **Interest Rates**: There are data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields, reflecting the current interest rate situation [58].
中金 • 全球研究 | 关税冲击影响的全球视角
中金点睛· 2025-04-20 23:45
中金研究 我们覆盖了全球不同区域以及143家海外公司(美国/欧洲/日本/亚洲其他各76/31/8/20支),本报告聚焦于除中国以外主要经济体与重点行业、企业的风 险敞口、应对策略及市场影响,试图从量化角度观察关税的可能影响。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 区域视角:压力不一,政策弹性显现 欧洲: 美国拟对欧盟征收20%的对等关税,目前暂缓90天,当前对欧盟的影响包括钢铝(25%)、汽车(25%)和除这两项及暂豁免品以外品类(暂按 10%)。欧盟目前态度为"边反制边谈判",针对钢铝的反制措施被暂停90天,后续或不排除针对服务贸易(包括科技公司)等领域提出反制计划。当前关 税对欧洲GDP直接影响静态测算为 0.2%-0.4% ,但不确定性和全球经济放缓可能会进一步加剧经济下行压力,同时带来盈利下修的风险。值得注意的 是,欧盟也是美国最大的制造业投资者,重要龙头企业都有较完善的美国本地化布局,对于这些企业而言直接影响相对可控。 日本: 美国拟对日本实施24%的对等关税,尽管暂缓90天,该关税贯彻落实一年的悲观情形下将可能拖累日本2025财年 GDP约0.9个百分点 至零增长、 企业EPS 5-7个 ...
机构研究周报:对冲预期升温,避险交易延续
Wind万得· 2025-04-20 22:32
Core Viewpoints - The necessity to enhance domestic demand policies to counteract the potential impacts of slowing external demand, thereby solidifying the recovery of domestic demand since the first quarter [1][4] - The market consensus on a clear mainline for policy response is still awaited, indicating that the timing for a more aggressive market approach is not yet ripe [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [2][4] - Retail sales grew by 4.6%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, and per capita disposable income rose to 12,179 yuan, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.5% [2] Trade and External Factors - The trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to the nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter [4] - A decline in container bookings to the U.S. by 67% in the first week of April indicates potential headwinds for exports in the second quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Recommendations to maintain a defensive investment strategy in light of ongoing global uncertainties, with a focus on safe assets such as gold and government bonds [5][21] - Emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand and those that have been undervalued due to market sentiment, particularly in the context of "China Special Valuation" and "Science and Technology Valuation" [6][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a need for further observation of policy impacts before a clear bullish trend can be established [7][19] - The potential for a gradual decrease in funding rates as macroeconomic stimulus measures are anticipated to be implemented [17]
申万宏观·周度研究成果(4.12-4.18)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-04-20 00:39
4 . 1 2 - 4 . 1 8 以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ,作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | "高估"的关税冲击? 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第27期 《关税"压力测试" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第54期 周度研究成果 1、 海外高频 | 美国"股债汇"三杀,黄金再创新高 2、 政策跟踪 | 根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策 3、 短贷高增VS财政托举——3月金融数据点评 4、 为何3月出口大幅反弹? ——3月外贸数据点评 5、 经济结构"新旧转换"的分水岭? ——3月经济数据点评 6、 Top Charts|高估关税冲击的三个"误区"?——"反脆弱"系列专题之三 热点思考 热点思考 2025.4.13 从特朗普2.0的现实约束和美国历史上七次"贸易战"的经验看,后续将如何演绎? 1 热点思考 | 关税的"经济"冲击:GTAP模型测算——关税"压力测试"系列之 二 热点思考 2025.4.14 2 热点思考 | "稳就业"的核心抓手? 基于就业与失业数 ...
申万宏观·周度研究成果(4.12-4.18)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-04-20 00:39
以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ,作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 1 2 - 4 . 1 8 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | "高估"的关税冲击? 热点思考 1、 热点思考 | 关税的"经济"冲击:GTAP模型测算——关税"压力测试"系列之二 2、 热点思考 | "稳就业"的核心抓手? 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第27期 《关税"压力测试" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第54期 热点思考 2025.4.13 从特朗普2.0的现实约束和美国历史上七次"贸易战"的经验看,后续将如何演绎? 《"高估"的关税冲击?—"反脆弱"系列专题之四 》 深度专题 深度专题 2025.4.12 当关税战演变成"数字游戏",对经济层面的影响如何评估?哪些领域,可能"高估"了关税冲击? 1 深度专题 | "高估"的关税冲击? 1、 海外高频 | 美国"股债汇"三杀,黄金再创新高 2、 政策跟踪 | 根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策 3、 短贷高增VS财政托举——3月金融数据点评 4、 为何3月出口大幅反弹? ...
一季度GDP数据亮眼,500质量成长ETF(560500)盘中飘红,中国汽研涨超5%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-17 05:59
国家统计局16日发布的数据显示,初步核算,一季度国内生产总值(GDP)318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。 截至2025年4月17日 13:37,中证500质量成长指数(930939)下跌0.14%。成分股方面涨跌互现,中国汽研(601965)领涨5.83%,乖宝宠物(301498)上涨4.24%, 杰瑞股份(002353)上涨2.56%;益丰药房(603939)领跌3.06%,湖南黄金(002155)下跌3.06%,赤峰黄金(600988)下跌2.87%。500质量成长ETF(560500)上涨 0.22%,最新价报0.92元。(以上所列示股票为指数成份股,仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金未来的投资方向,也不代表具体的投资建 议,投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。) Wind数据显示: 规模方面,500质量成长ETF近1周规模增长2172.20万元,实现显著增长,新增规模位居可比基金1/3。 份额方面,500质量成长ETF近1周份额增长1500.00万份,实现显著增长,新增份额位居可比基金1/3。 资金流入方面,500质量 ...
建信期货国债日报-20250417
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 23:55
Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market reaction to tariff factors has become dull, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slightly slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for monetary policy easing. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: In the first quarter, the economic performance was better than expected, but the tariff impact was not yet reflected. The landing of negative factors boosted market sentiment, but the short - term pressure on the capital side still had a suppressing effect [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end decline was within 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond declined by 1 - 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.654%, down 1.25bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open market, and the funding situation was stable. There were 1189 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1045 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 144 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank funding rate rose slightly, while the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for easing. The main factor hindering the decline of interest rates in the short term is the capital side. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China's national economy had a good start in the first quarter. The GDP in the first quarter was 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 74.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 4.094 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first quarter was 10.3174 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The per capita disposable income of residents in the first quarter was 12,179 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the per capita consumption expenditure was 7,681 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.2% [13]. - China has established trade partnerships with more than 150 countries and regions, and the dependence on a single export market has decreased. For example, the proportion of China's exports to the United States in total exports decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% last year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures on April 16, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, is provided [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, the situation of reverse repurchase maturities and operations, the movement of short - term and medium - long - term funding rates, and the situation of the inter - bank short - term funding rate are presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps is provided [34].