亚洲交易时段，美元指数维持窄幅震荡格局，最新报99.80，日内微涨0.00%，开盘价99.79。尽管第一 季度美国GDP意外萎缩引发衰退担忧，但货币市场仍押注美联储将按兵不动至6月会议，届时可能启动 预防性降息周期。联邦基金期货定价显示，交易员预期年底前政策利率将累计下调100个基点，目标区 间落至3.25%-3.5%。 尽管美联储官员在最近讲话中强调"需更多证据确认通胀持续回落"，但市场已提前定价宽松预期。芝加 哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示，6月会议维持利率不变的概率为89%，但9月降息概率已攀升至72%。 这种预期差主要源于两方面考量：其一，就业市场出现裂痕，4月JOLTs职位空缺数降至808.9万，创 2021年2月以来新低；其二，制造业PMI连续16个月处于收缩区间，新订单指数跌破45荣枯线。 技术面呈现筑底特征 从日线结构观察，美元指数正处于关键技术节点：MACD指标显示，DIF线(-1.0756)与DEA线(-1.2420) 维持负值运行，但双线间距收窄显示空头动能衰减；MACD柱状图虽保持正值（0.1664），但能量潮指 标（OBV）连续三日走平，暗示反弹缺乏量能配合。值得关注的是，99 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global market dynamics influenced by tariff impacts, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Chinese markets, as well as the performance of various asset classes including equities and commodities like gold. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact Recovery**: The Japanese and U.S. stock markets rebounded after the elimination of tariff impacts, surpassing pre-tariff levels by May 2, indicating that the influence of tariffs on stock markets has been largely repaired [1][2] - **Resilience of Chinese Assets**: Despite a weaker performance post-tariff impact, the decline in trade dependency on the U.S. has provided resilience to Chinese assets, which the market has not fully priced in yet [1][3] - **U.S. Stock Market Ambiguity**: The U.S. stock market has shown mixed signals, with non-farm data exceeding expectations leading to new highs, but disappointing GDP data and political factors have resulted in a fragile rebound, potentially delaying interest rate cuts [1][4][5] - **China's Policy Response**: China is enhancing cooperation with non-U.S. economies and signaling engagement with the U.S., while also expected to introduce domestic demand policies to counter external trade uncertainties [1][6] - **Macroeconomic Volatility Forecast**: By Q2 2025, macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. is expected to increase, with China clarifying external negotiation outcomes and implementing domestic policies, contributing to heightened global market fluctuations [1][7] - **Downstream Profit Recovery**: Since 2022, there has been a gradual recovery in profitability in downstream sectors, with midstream sectors also beginning to stabilize, attracting market attention towards companies performing well in the domestic demand sector [1][8] - **Gold Market Transition**: The demand for gold in China has weakened due to the recovery of RMB assets, leading to a potential shift of funds back to RMB assets. After a recent correction, gold is expected to enter a transitional phase and gradually stabilize [1][9] - **Small and Mid-Cap Stock Trends**: Small-cap stocks with high valuations and growth potential have seen significant gains, but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain. AI is identified as a major industry trend, although current data from listed companies does not reflect this [1][10] - **Focus on Domestic Demand**: There is a preference for investing in China's domestic demand sectors, including consumer and core consumer assets, while also considering industrial capital goods and key stocks like banks and insurance [1][11] - **Market Sentiment on Growth Stocks**: The market sentiment is leaning towards a volatile structural shift, favoring heavyweight stocks while maintaining caution towards small and mid-cap growth stocks due to their lower expected sustainability and volatility resistance [1][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of various markets, with a strong emphasis on the need for policy adjustments in response to external pressures and internal economic conditions [1][7][11]

金十数据5月6日讯，摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写 道："鉴于美联储预计通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储不太可能采取 先发制人的行动。"虽然特朗普自4月2日的"解放日"以来已部分放宽关税举措，在一定程度上稳定了债 市和股市。但投资者表示，市场对后续形势进展的整体焦虑情绪并没有消散。管理着8,370亿美元资产 的PGIM Fixed Income公司联席首席投资官Gregory Peters表示："我们建议投资者继续保持谨慎，降低风 险。" 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In April, the economic expansion pace slowed down, but business production and operation activities remained in an expansion state. The manufacturing industry was affected by tariff shocks, with enterprises actively reducing inventory due to risk aversion. The non - manufacturing industry was supported by front - loaded fiscal policies in the construction sector. In the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline, and after the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low, value - type equity assets may show better allocation value [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Manufacturing - **Supply and demand**: In April, the production index dropped 2.8 to 49.8, and the new order index dropped 2.6 to 49.2. The new export order dropped 4.3 to 44.7, while domestic demand relatively recovered. Industries such as food and medicine had both supply and demand indices above 53.0, while industries like textile and clothing and metal products saw significant declines in both indices, falling below the critical point [2]. - **Price and profit**: Affected by insufficient market demand and the continuous decline of some commodity prices, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47.0 and 44.8 respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 from the previous month [2]. - **Inventory and production expansion**: Uncertainty led enterprises to actively reduce inventory. In April, the purchase volume dropped 5.5 to 46.3, imports dropped 4.1 to 43.3, raw material inventory and finished product inventory decreased by 0.2 and 0.7 respectively. The production and operation activity expectation dropped 1.7 to 52.1, falling for three consecutive months, and the employment index dropped 0.3 to 47.9 [2]. - **Enterprise size impact**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.2, 48.8, and 48.7 respectively, down 2.0, 1.1, and 0.9 from the previous month, all below the critical point [3]. - **Industry segment impact**: The PMI of high - tech manufacturing dropped 0.8 to 51.5, equipment manufacturing dropped 2.4 to 49.6, consumer goods industry dropped 0.6 to 49.4, and basic raw material industry dropped 1.6 to 47.7 [3]. Non - manufacturing - **Overall situation**: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.4 month - on - month. The construction industry PMI dropped 1.5 to 51.9, and the service industry PMI dropped 0.2 to 50.1. Industries such as air transportation, telecommunications, and the Internet were in a high - prosperity range, while industries like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point [4][5]. - **Demand side**: The non - manufacturing external demand deteriorated significantly. The new order index was 44.9, down 1.7 month - on - month, and the new export order dropped 7.6 to 42.2. The new order index of the construction industry was 39.6, down 3.9 month - on - month, and that of the service industry was 45.9, down 1.2 month - on - month [5]. 4. Investment Advice Given the tariff shocks causing enterprises to shrink their businesses and the significant decline in the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry, and considering the central government's stable policy stance, in the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline. After the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low (1.6%), value - type equity assets are expected to gradually show better allocation value [6].

金十数据5月2日讯，Principal资产管理公司t首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，我们可以将对经济衰退的 担忧再推迟一个月。就业数据仍然非常强劲，这表明在关税冲击之前，经济存在令人印象深刻的弹性。 这表明，经济疲软可能在几个月内不会真正体现在数据中，这反过来又会将美联储的下一次降息时点推 至第三季度。经济将在未来几个月疲软，但凭借现在这种潜在的势头，如果美国能够及时从关税边缘退 下来，就有可能避免经济衰退。 机构：就目前而言，美国经济衰退已经推迟了 ...

亚马逊盘前跌逾2%，利润指引逊色，预警关税冲击。 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 27 April 2025 Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085 tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch China: April Politburo meeting emphasized policy reserves No rush for more incremental policy stimulus yet, as expected The April Politburo meeting was held on 25 April, focusing on economic conditions and policy guidance. This policy event has been closely watched by market participants in antic ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for April is 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, while the construction PMI is at 51.9%, also down 1.5 percentage points[1] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is the largest among the three sectors, falling below the 50% threshold, signaling external demand's impact on the economy[1] Group 2: External Demand Impact - Concerns over tariffs have materialized, with the April manufacturing PMI drop exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 percentage points[1] - The April manufacturing PMI's month-on-month decline of 1.5 percentage points is the third largest for this period in the last decade, following declines of 2.1 and 2.7 percentage points in April 2022 and 2023, respectively[1] - The manufacturing production index fell by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, while the new orders index decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, primarily due to a drop in export orders[1] Group 3: Employment and Pricing Trends - The employment index in manufacturing decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, while the construction employment index fell significantly to 37.8%, the lowest on record[2] - The input price index for raw materials dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 47%, while the output price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating greater pressure on output prices compared to input prices[2] - The textile and equipment manufacturing sectors, which are more reliant on external demand, experienced greater declines in PMI compared to high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that external demand pressures may increase in May and June due to tariff changes and global manufacturing trends[1] - To counteract the impact of declining exports, boosting service demand is highlighted as a critical strategy, requiring more policy support to enhance overall economic activity[2] - Upcoming growth stabilization policies are expected to be implemented in the second quarter, focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to mitigate export impacts[2]

美国在周四假期前，今晚将密集公布重磅数据，让市场严阵以待。本次公布的数据中，季度GDP和月度PCE物价指数凑到了一起，当下的市场正值特朗普贸 易政策的阴影中，经济放缓将成为显示关税经济影响的首批"硬数据"指标之一，意味着在周一转为谨慎开局的市场可能再度迎来大幅震荡。 今晚的GDP报告不仅是特朗普总统任期初期经济状况的评估，也是首批展现特朗普对美国贸易伙伴加征关税影响的"硬数据"指标 之一。特朗普的加征关税 始于2月份，并在4月份达到顶峰。调查显示，受关税影响，企业和个人对经济的悲观情绪日益加剧，但包括失业率和通胀在内的关键经济指标迄今为止仍保 持韧性。 市场预期第一季度美国GDP年增长率仅为0.4%，较上一季度的2.4%大幅放缓，也是自2022年以来最慢的增长速度。贸易逆差将成为最大的拖累因素，因为 企业在特朗普政府提高关税之前提前进口商品，消费者也争相购买可能因关税而价格上涨的商品。 今晚另一份重磅报告聚焦在美联储青睐的通胀指标——PCE物价指数，扣除食品和燃料的核心个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）预计较上年同期上涨2.6%，将 是自6月以来的最小年度涨幅。但基于关税影响的扩大，经济学家预计，PCE物价指数将 ...