Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has discussed the Federal Reserve chair position and indicated that interest rates are currently high, with a potential for a 100 basis point cut by 2026 depending on future data [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve must pay attention to maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1] - U.S. debt reflects spending issues that need to be addressed [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone private sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15 months, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.9 in July to 51.1 in August, exceeding analysts' expectations of 50.6 [1][4] - The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5, marking the first expansion since June 2022, while the service sector showed slight weakening but remained in line with expectations [1][4] - Germany's manufacturing sector is nearing the end of a three-year downturn, indicating a potential recovery in the Eurozone economy [1][4] Group 2 - Despite challenges such as US tariffs and general uncertainty, businesses across the Eurozone are performing relatively well, as noted by economists [4] - The Euro to US dollar exchange rate stabilized at 1.1654, while German 10-year bond yields rose by 2 basis points to 2.73%, reflecting market confidence [4] - The Eurozone's economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, although this was significantly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September meeting, following a pause in rate changes after eight consecutive cuts [5] - The UK composite PMI rose to 53 in August, outperforming market expectations, while the US composite PMI data is anticipated to remain above 50 [5]

Group 1 - International silver prices rose to $37.89 per ounce, up 1.41%, with a daily high of $37.93 and a low of $36.95, indicating a volatile market influenced by rising consumer prices due to tariff measures [1] - As of August 20, 2025, silver ETF holdings decreased to 15,305.76 tons, down by 33.90 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen to around 3%, with tariffs expected to further increase consumer prices, although the Federal Reserve views these tariff impacts as one-time adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that inflation rates have exceeded the 2% target, with price pressures likely to increase in the coming months due to higher tariff costs being passed on by businesses [3] - The labor market is experiencing a slowdown in new population growth, which may limit the expected downward pressure on prices, despite a stable unemployment rate [3] - The silver market is currently in a weak downward trend, with support levels at $36.5 and resistance levels at $37.60 and $37.85, indicating potential future price movements [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad, offering investors a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation [3][9][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.00% at $3392.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.51% at $37.90 per ounce [3]. - U.S. inventory decline pushed up oil prices, with the U.S. crude oil main contract up 1.73% at $62.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 1.76% at $66.95 per barrel [4]. - Most London base metals rose, except for LME tin which fell 0.22% to $33775.00 per ton [4]. - Most domestic futures main contracts rose, with caustic soda up over 3% and butadiene rubber up over 2% [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans rose 0.17%, U.S. corn rose 0.25%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.97%, U.S. soybean meal rose 0.52%, and U.S. wheat rose 1.44% [5]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [9]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent said that the U.S. had a "very good dialogue" with China on economic and trade issues and expected another meeting before November [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will work on enriching product supply, promoting the listing of important energy varieties like liquefied natural gas [9]. - Israel's Defense Minister approved an offensive plan against Gaza City [9]. - Kevin Thozet of Capital Economics said that U.S. short - term interest rates face an upward risk [9]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In Japan, as of August 16, commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, and the refinery's average operating rate rose [14]. - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory increased, with both East and South China regions accumulating inventory [14]. - As of August 10, the rubber (RSS) inventory in Osaka Exchange's designated warehouses decreased [15]. - As of August 20, the capacity utilization rate and output of China's 92 asphalt refineries decreased [16]. - As of August 20, China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory decreased [16]. - Russia expects India to continue buying its oil despite potential U.S. tariff hikes [16]. - As of August 18, the refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased [16]. - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 601.4 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations [20]. Metal Futures - In July 2025, global primary aluminum production increased compared to the previous year and the previous month, and China's expected production also rose [22]. - Some polysilicon enterprises reached an agreement on production cuts and inventory control [22]. - With the approaching of relevant events, safety inspections in northern China's lead - zinc mines increased, but there was no direct impact on zinc concentrate production [22]. - In June 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus, and the same was true for the first six months of 2025 [22]. Black - Series Futures - Environmental protection policies are affecting the coking coal and coke market from both supply and demand sides, with potential supply tightening and demand constraints [24]. - The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's ETT company on August 20 ended in failure [26]. - A coal mine in Inner Mongolia was ordered to suspend production for rectification due to major safety hazards [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market [28]. - Pro Farmer's crop inspection predicted higher corn yields and more soybean pods in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. - In August, China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills is expected to rise [29]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [29]. - U.S. private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico and Colombia for the 2025/2026 sales year [31]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high, and the semiconductor industry chain was strong [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, while the Hang Seng Technology Index was slightly down, and there was a large net southbound capital outflow [33]. - Since August, the securities sector has performed well, with many stocks rising and funds flowing in through ETFs [33]. - Many A - share listed companies announced mid - year dividend plans, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [34]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has received 50 new IPO applications since the launch of the "tech enterprise special route" [34]. - China Evergrande's listing status will be cancelled on August 25 [38]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's second - quarter revenue and profit increased year - on - year [38]. - Baidu's second - quarter revenue decreased slightly, but its net profit and AI new business revenue increased [38]. Industry - The State Taxation Administration will guide and remind platform enterprises that have not submitted tax - related information [39]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new anti - monopoly regulations for the public utility sector [39]. - Some rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have lowered deposit interest rates, while some banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with higher yields [39]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers decreased, and the inventory level was below the warning line but above the reasonable range [40]. Overseas - U.S. President Trump pressured Fed Governor Cook to resign [43]. - Trump has bought hundreds of bonds worth at least $103.7 million since taking office [44]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade [44]. - The ECB President said that the euro - zone economy may slow down this quarter [45]. - UK's July CPI accelerated, reducing the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England [45]. - Japan's July commodity exports decreased significantly, especially automobile exports [46]. - South Korea will launch a 45.8 - trillion - won support plan for key industries [47]. - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points [47]. - The Central Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points [50]. - The Swedish Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged but still expects a possible rate cut this year [51]. International Stock Markets - U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.67% [52]. - European three major stock indexes closed mixed, affected by the expectation of peace talks in Ukraine, Fed policy, and economic data [52]. - Estée Lauder's Q4 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but its 2026 EPS forecast was lower than expected [52]. - Target's Q2 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but comparable sales decreased [53]. - iQiyi's Q2 net loss widened, and its core businesses shrank [53]. - Futu Holdings' Q2 revenue and profit increased significantly year - on - year [56]. Commodities - The CSRC will promote the listing of important energy varieties and expand the scope of futures and derivatives [57]. - The U.S. Soybean Association warned of the severe impact on U.S. soybean farmers if an export agreement with China is not reached soon [57]. - International precious metal futures rose, supported by market uncertainty related to inflation data [57]. - Oil prices rose due to a larger - than - expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventory [57]. - Most London base metals rose, affected by the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy [58]. Bonds - The strong stock market suppressed the bond market, with most bond yields rising and bond futures falling [59]. - The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, easing liquidity tensions [61]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27 [62]. - Foreign investors continued to buy ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in July [62]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields fell [62]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday, while the central parity rate was slightly depreciated [63]. - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and most non - U.S. currencies had mixed performance [63].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, reflecting investor sentiment shifting away from technology stocks towards sectors with relatively lower valuations [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw declines of 0.24% and a slight increase of 0.04%, respectively [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced widespread declines, with Intel dropping approximately 7% and other companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Tesla falling over 1% [1] - Microsoft, Nvidia, Netflix, Meta, and AMD also saw minor decreases [1] Retail Sector - Mixed retail earnings reports are influencing market evaluations, with Target's stock falling 6.3% after announcing a CEO change and maintaining its previously lowered annual guidance [1] - Estee Lauder's shares dropped 3.7% due to tariff-related challenges impacting its annual profit outlook [1] Construction and Materials - James Hardie Industries, a building materials supplier, saw its stock plummet over 34% after warning about ongoing challenges in the North American renovation and new construction markets [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.33%, with notable movements in popular Chinese stocks such as NetEase, which increased by 1.7%, while JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo saw minor declines [2] Commodities - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by $0.86, or 1.38%, closing at $63.21 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.99%, reaching $3391.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.49%, closing at $37.89 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - The dollar index remains stable above 98, with cautious trading sentiment among major currency pairs as the market awaits the Jackson Hole central bank symposium for clues on monetary policy direction [1] - Following unexpectedly weak employment data earlier this month, traders have increased bets on a Fed rate cut in September, further encouraged by consumer price data showing limited upward pressure from tariffs [1] - The recent higher-than-expected producer price data complicates the policy outlook, with Fed Chair Powell indicating a low willingness to cut rates due to anticipated tariff-driven price pressures this summer [1] Group 2 - The British pound experienced a brief boost from unexpectedly high CPI data, providing hawkish members of the Bank of England with more reasons to maintain stable rates in the coming months, although the pound's upward momentum may be difficult to sustain due to weak labor market conditions [2] - The New Zealand dollar saw significant volatility following a dovish statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which considered a 50 basis point rate cut before deciding on a 25 basis point reduction, leading to a drop in the New Zealand dollar to its lowest level since April 14 [2] - Market expectations were caught off guard by the strong dovish signal from the New Zealand central bank, prompting a revision of forecasts for further easing, with expectations for the overnight cash rate to reach 2.5% by November [2] Group 3 - The Japanese yen showed slight improvement in buying during the Asian trading session but remained in a narrow trading range against most currencies, with significant options expirations potentially limiting the exchange rate movements [3] - The narrowing trend of the US-Japan interest rate differential may also restrict the yen's upward potential, while rising Japanese government bond yields provide support for the yen [3] - Key manufacturing PMI data from major economies, including the US, Eurozone, and Japan, will be released on Friday, offering updated evidence for assessing global economic health [3]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump criticizing Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which he claims is damaging the U.S. housing industry [2][3][4] - Trump's urgent call for interest rate cuts is driven by the significant impact of high rates on the housing market, where mortgage rates have surged above 7%, leading to a 23% drop in new home sales [5][6] - The housing industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 15% of GDP, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][7] Group 2 - Powell's resistance to lowering interest rates is based on persistent core PCE inflation at 3.2% and a robust job market, which he believes could lead to a resurgence of inflation if rates are cut [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, as historical precedents show past chairpersons have been influenced by political figures, yet Powell is determined to maintain this independence despite Trump's pressure [10][12] - The ongoing standoff between Trump and Powell poses risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy, as changes in U.S. interest rates can have widespread implications for global capital flows and economic stability [20][22][24]

Core Insights - Home Depot reported Q2 financial results with non-GAAP EPS of $4.68, slightly below expectations by $0.01, while revenue reached $45.28 billion, reflecting a 4.8% year-over-year growth, meeting forecasts [1] - Key sales metrics showed underperformance, indicating a reduction in consumer spending on big-ticket items amid high interest rates and inflation uncertainty, with same-store sales growth at 1%, below the expected 1.4% [1][2] - The company noted a decline in same-store customer transactions by 0.4% year-over-year, while the average transaction amount increased by 1.4% [1] Financial Performance - Home Depot's total customer transactions decreased by 0.9% to 446.8 million, with the average transaction amount rising by 1.2% to $90.01 [1] - The company expects total sales to grow by 2.8% for the fiscal year, with same-store sales projected to increase by approximately 1% after excluding one-time factors [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly engaging in smaller projects, with 12 out of 16 sales departments reporting year-over-year sales growth [2] - The trend of postponing large projects persists due to high interest rates and economic instability, although customers are not canceling these projects [2][3] Pricing Strategy - Home Depot has maintained its pricing levels as most imported goods arrived before new tariffs were implemented, although price increases are anticipated later in the year [2][3] - The company is studying customer sensitivity to price increases and expanding procurement channels [3] Market Positioning - Home Depot is focusing on professional contractors, with a significant portion of sales coming from this segment, which typically spends more than DIY customers [4][6] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and plans to acquire GMS for approximately $4.3 billion, enhancing its professional product distribution [6] Competitive Landscape - Home Depot's competitors, such as Floor & Decor, have noted minimal impact from recent price adjustments but anticipate further measures later in the year [3] - The company has not altered its pricing strategy despite changes in U.S. tariff policies, with a customer base that generally has better financial stability than the average consumer [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a pullback recently, leading to a divergence in product net values, with "equity-linked" fixed income products outperforming others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Yield Review - In the past month, the performance of fixed income products has varied significantly, with equity-linked bond funds yielding 0.84%, high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.14%, cash management at 0.10%, short-term bond funds at 0.03%, and medium to long-term bond funds at -0.25% [3][9]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has faced increased negative disturbances, with expectations of fundamental recovery rising. Key developments include the launch of infrastructure projects and the implementation of various policies [12][35]. - The yield curve has steepened, with short-term rates stable and medium to long-term rates rising. For instance, the 1-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.37%, while the 10-year yield rose by 8 basis points to 1.75% [16][22]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate rates, while medium-term views suggest limited upward movement in interest rates. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [34][42]. - The credit bond market is anticipated to underperform compared to interest rate bonds in the short term, with credit spreads widening slightly [36][38]. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining current cash product allocations is advised, with a gradual increase in stable low-volatility investments [44]. - Conservative investors should be cautious with long-duration products, while those with higher risk tolerance may consider medium to long-term bond funds when yields exceed 1.8% [45]. - For advanced conservative investors, a focus on fixed income plus strategies that include convertible bonds and equity assets is recommended [47].

Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]