市场热点快速切换，今天轮到大消费这条主线。 周二，A股食品饮料、白酒、乳业、互联网电商、宠物经济等大消费领衔上攻，IP经济、珠宝等新兴消费迎强势上涨。 个股方面，科拓生物、均瑶健康、保龄宝、会稽山、有友食品、创源股份、广博股份等一批个股涨停。 | ● 热力图 ○列表 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | 培育钻石 3.89% | 乳业 3.10% | 超硬材料 2.51% | 三胎 2.41% | 饮料制造 1.59% | 办公用品 3.40% | 休闲用品 1.50% | 软饮料 2.54% | 纺织服装 1.31% | 电信 0.88% | | 人造肉 | 谷子经济 | 首发经济 | 合成生物 | 动物保健 | 生物科技 | 农业 | 制药 | 银行 | 机场 | | 2.10% | 0.95% | 1.36% | 1.50% | 2.75% | 1.18% | 0.92% | 1.21% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the home appliance industry is experiencing a performance and valuation resonance opportunity due to export recovery and ongoing national subsidy policies, with a profit growth of 28.64% year-on-year in Q1 [1][3] - Domestic performance is benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to continuous marginal improvement in earnings, while the export sector is seeing significant recovery in production due to easing tariffs in the U.S. and high demand in emerging markets [1][3] - The national subsidy policy is expected to continue stimulating home appliance demand, with an expanded coverage that supports the industry's growth [1][3] Group 2 - The home appliance sector has shown strong financial performance, ranking high in profit growth rate and ROE among 30 first-level industries, with a financial status ranking of fifth in Q1 2025 [3] - The export sector is under pressure from U.S. tariffs ranging from 30% to 55%, but the situation is improving, allowing for a recovery in production and a return of bargaining power for manufacturers [3] - The home appliance sector is attracting significant net inflows of capital, reflecting market recognition of its low valuation, high dividend yield, and strong safety margins [1][3]

Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[6] - In April 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 65,556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[8] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure from January to April 2025 was 93,581 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%[9] - In April 2025, the expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, slightly higher than March's 5.7%[9] - Social security and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, indicating a focus on welfare[11] Government Fund Insights - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to 12,586 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025[17] - In April 2025, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 8.1%, compared to -11.7% in March[17] - Government fund budget expenditure grew by 17.7% year-on-year, with April's growth rate reaching 44.7%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, focusing on urban renewal projects and infrastructure improvements[22] - There is an emphasis on increasing local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to support economic growth[22] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas demand, which could impact future fiscal performance[23]

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances - **Date**: May 22, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Market Performance**: The company expects improved operating conditions in Q2 2025, with high-end brands COLMO and new wind air conditioners performing well. The cost of bulk raw materials remains stable, supporting domestic sales profits. [2][3] - **Export Markets**: Orders from the U.S. market are returning to normal, while the European market, despite inventory pressures, is growing faster than the industry average. Emerging markets like ASEAN, Middle East, and South America saw over 20% growth in Q1 2025 and are expected to maintain rapid growth throughout the year. [2][5] - **Central Air Conditioning Strategy**: The company is adjusting its central air conditioning strategy, positioning the Hitachi brand in the high-end market to compete for market share with Daikin, while expanding the Hisense brand in public construction and new infrastructure sectors. [2][7] Financial Performance - **Sales Structure**: The sales structure is shifting, with low-end models dominating price competition, but high-end brands are showing strong performance. The company anticipates some support for domestic sales profits due to the sales structure. [3][4] - **Profit Margins**: The overseas profit margin is expected to improve by 0.5 percentage points annually, with the company aiming for a micro-profit status this year. However, the automotive parts industry is under significant pressure, which may impact overall revenue growth. [4][15] Product Development and Innovation - **Data Center Cooling Systems**: Hisense is actively developing data center cooling systems, with leading manufacturing capabilities in multi-connected units. The new production base for central air conditioning water machines in Changsha is expected to enhance business development. [2][6] - **Product Launches**: The company plans to optimize its sales structure during the 618 shopping festival, leveraging national subsidy policies to promote high-end strategies and introduce new products in segmented categories. [10][11] Competitive Landscape - **High-End Market Trends**: The high-end market continues to grow, driven by national subsidy policies from the previous year. Competitors like Casarte are also experiencing significant growth. [11][12] - **Price Competition**: The online channel is experiencing intense price competition, with brands adopting multi-brand strategies or launching popular models to cope. Long-term success will depend on product quality and durability. [13] Regional Market Dynamics - **High-Line City Demand**: Demand in high-line cities is weak due to the overdrawn effects of national subsidy policies, with consumers concerned about the absence of such policies this year. [12] - **Emerging Market Growth**: The growth in Southeast Asia and ASEAN is driven by local demand and increasing penetration rates, with significant long-term growth potential despite some risks. [16][18] Strategic Adjustments - **Operational Changes**: The company is not expected to make major changes to its operational direction, focusing on overseas expansion and improving domestic sales efficiency and profit margins. [14] - **Response to Market Conditions**: The company plans to maintain normal shipping schedules to the U.S. following the reduction in tariffs, while also addressing inventory issues in mature markets like Europe. [5][17] Conclusion Hisense Home Appliances is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on high-end market growth, optimize its product offerings, and expand its presence in emerging markets while navigating challenges in mature markets and the automotive sector. The focus on innovation and quality will be crucial for maintaining competitiveness in a rapidly evolving industry landscape.

报告导读： 4月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济韧性。二季度或主要加快落实存量政 策，关注城市更新项目的进展以及两新政策的力度。 狭义收入：增速继续回升。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.4% ，但是 4 月当月增 速 1.9% ，相比 3 月的增速 0.3% 有所回升。在海外不确定性扰动、我国 PPI 价格低位运行的情况下， 4 月财政收入增速回升反映了积极财政发力后，经济表现出一定的韧性。从主要分项看，增值税、消费 税、企业所得税收入增速边际回落。个人所得税收入增速明显回升。此外，出口退税增速虽然边际回落， 但是表现尚可，或与出口受转口贸易的支撑有关。接下来，随着关税局势缓和，外需或边际回升。此外， 非税收入增速持续回落，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 狭义支出：增速平稳，保障民生。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 4.6% ，其中从 4 月当月同比增长 5.8% ，相比 3 月的增速 5.7% 略微抬升。从节奏看，目前支出进度与过去两年的同期 水平大体相当。这体现出，财政政策仍较为积极，对经济保持应有的支持力度。 政府性基金：收入回升，支出提速。 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3][56]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. The online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 9,317 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year. The growth in the consumer goods sector and e-commerce remains relatively robust, with national subsidy categories leading in growth [1][4][5]. - The report highlights that if consumer stimulus policies are introduced, leading companies in the consumer internet sector are expected to benefit significantly. It recommends high-quality, well-performing, and low-valuation consumer internet leaders [1][4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In April, the retail sales of goods totaled 33,007 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Restaurant revenue was 4,167 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%. Service consumption, driven by strong holiday travel demand, saw rapid growth in sectors like transportation, communication, and tourism, with retail sales in these categories maintaining double-digit growth from January to April [1][4][5]. - Urban retail sales reached 32,376 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 4,798 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, indicating that urban consumption continues to outpace rural markets [1][7]. Online Retail Growth - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.1% year-on-year, outpacing the overall retail market. Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw online retail sales growth of 14.6%, 0.5%, and 5.5%, respectively [1][21]. - In April, various offline retail formats showed different performance levels, with convenience stores, specialty stores, supermarkets, department stores, and brand specialty stores recording year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 6.4%, 5.2%, 1.7%, and 1.4%, respectively [1][4]. Category-Specific Insights - In terms of essential goods, food and daily necessities saw year-on-year growth of 14% and 7.6%, respectively. Among discretionary items, national subsidy categories maintained leading growth rates, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment growing by 38.8% year-on-year, and communication equipment by 19.9% [1][34][49]. - Jewelry sales accelerated significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, influenced by gold prices and last year's low base [1][32].

Group 1 - The demand for good housing is continuously expanding, and efforts are needed to stabilize the real estate market [1] - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.24% [1] - The sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment all saw double-digit growth, with increases of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - The "old for new" policy for home appliances will expand in 2025, increasing the types of subsidized appliances from "8+N" to "12+N" and allowing each person to receive subsidies for up to three air conditioners [2] - As of April 10, consumers have purchased over 100.35 million units of appliances under the "old for new" program, marking a significant milestone [2] - The national subsidy policy has significantly stimulated the consumption of high-ticket home appliances, leading to a deeper understanding of the concept that "appliances have a lifespan" among consumers [2] Group 3 - In the first quarter of 2025, JD's revenue from electronic products and home appliances grew by 17.1% year-on-year, contributing over 59% to JD's net product revenue [3] - The national subsidy policy has made promotional events more frequent, allowing consumers to purchase at discounted prices without waiting for major sales events [3] - As of mid-May 2025, the growth trend in home appliance consumption driven by national subsidies continues to persist [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.372 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 485 million yuan, up 8.39% year-on-year [1][2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.796 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.30% year-on-year, with a net profit of 81 million yuan, down 7.57% year-on-year [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.260 billion yuan, a decline of 8.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, down 14.33% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from range hoods was 2.735 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 6.22% year-on-year, accounting for 42.93% of total revenue [2] - The revenue from stoves was 1.533 billion yuan, up 5.28% year-on-year, representing 24.06% of total revenue [2] - The revenue from water heaters was 1.262 billion yuan, a growth of 10.40% year-on-year, making up 19.81% of total revenue [2] Market Trends - The increase in demand for kitchen appliances in 2024 was driven by the old-for-new policy and national subsidy policies, which positively impacted the market [2] - The overall retail sales of the range hood market reached 36.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a retail volume of 20.83 million units, up 10.5% [2] - The gas stove market saw retail sales of 20.4 billion yuan, a growth of 15.7% year-on-year, with a retail volume of 24.29 million units, up 15.2% [2] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 40.71%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margins for range hoods, stoves, and water heaters were up by 0.35, 0.07, and down by 0.89 percentage points respectively [3] - The company experienced a significant increase in sales expenses due to higher advertising and market service costs, leading to a rise in the sales expense ratio [3] Future Outlook - The company has a diversified brand matrix with three major brands, aiming for continuous growth through product innovation and channel expansion [4] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 517 million, 563 million, and 613 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.91, 10.01, and 9.19 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that the home appliance sector is expected to benefit from continued national subsidies and a favorable domestic demand environment, with leading companies in the industry poised to gain from both domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - The home appliance sector is anticipated to see sustained improvement in domestic demand due to ongoing national subsidies, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3% in retail sales of home appliances in Q1 2025 [1] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in export value and 13.1% in volume for home appliances in Q1 2025, driven by emerging markets and a "grab export" effect [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance industry is 3.3%, ranking second among 31 primary industries, indicating a strong defensive attribute for the sector [1] Group 2: White Goods - The white goods segment is benefiting from national subsidy policies and a favorable real estate environment, with expectations for increased sales elasticity in Q2 and Q3 [2] - Leading brands are expected to outperform second-tier brands in terms of sales, with structural upgrades in product offerings enhancing profitability for top companies [2] - Despite potential short-term disruptions due to tariff fluctuations, domestic white goods leaders have established overseas production capabilities to mitigate trade barriers [2] Group 3: Color TVs - The domestic color TV market is experiencing a recovery trend, supported by national subsidies and the upcoming U.S. sports events, which are expected to stabilize demand [3] - Domestic brands are focusing on high-end product offerings, while overseas production capabilities are reducing tariff risks, allowing for market share gains against Korean competitors [3] Group 4: Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is closely linked to the real estate market, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance demand and improve valuations [4] - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to further stimulate demand, leading to gradual improvements in the sector's fundamentals [4] Group 5: Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is projected to recover significantly due to national subsidies, with a notable increase in demand expected in early 2025 as more product categories are included [5] - The industry is entering a concentrated replacement cycle, driven by the average product lifespan of 3-5 years, which is expected to boost growth for leading small appliance manufacturers [5] - Short-term export orders may face volatility due to U.S. trade tariffs, but the reliance of the U.S. kitchen appliance industry on Chinese supply chains is expected to favor leading manufacturers [5] Group 6: Robotic Vacuums - The robotic vacuum segment is showing strong growth potential, with Q1 2025 data indicating it is one of the most elastic consumer categories benefiting from national subsidies [6] - The domestic market is expected to see accelerated penetration rates as product prices reach attractive levels, with significant sales elasticity anticipated throughout the year [6] Group 7: Export Outlook for Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums in overseas markets remains uncertain due to U.S. trade tariffs and economic conditions, but leading Chinese brands are expected to capture market share in the mid-to-low-end price segments [7] - The potential exit of foreign brands and smaller Chinese brands due to tariffs may create new expansion opportunities for established Chinese brands [7]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, JD achieved revenue of 301.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion RMB, up 43.4%, with a net profit margin of 4.24%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD's Q1 2025 revenue was 3010.82 billion RMB, with 1P revenue at 2423.09 billion RMB (up 16.2%) and 3P revenue at 587.73 billion RMB (up 14.0%) [1] - The retail segment generated revenue of 2638.45 billion RMB, a 16.3% increase, with adjusted operating profit of 128.46 billion RMB and a profit margin of 4.87% [1] - The logistics segment reported revenue of 46.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with adjusted operating profit of 1.45 billion RMB and a profit margin of 0.31% [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Policies - National subsidy policies have supported JD's continued growth, with expectations for these policies to persist in 2025, further enhancing offline integration [1] - JD's new food delivery service has made significant progress, with daily order volume surpassing 10 million, indicating strong market penetration compared to competitors [2] - Regulatory bodies are emphasizing compliance and fair competition in the food delivery sector, which may lead to a more rational investment approach in the future [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD are 1286.4 billion RMB and 1375.1 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11.01% and 6.90% [3] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are 51.01 billion RMB and 59.28 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 6.66% and 16.22% [3] - The target price is set at 207.89 HKD, corresponding to a 12x PE for the group in 2025 [3]