Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 was marked by significant market volatility driven by factors such as artificial intelligence (AI), trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and debt issues, with a notable performance in the commodity market, particularly precious metals [3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The global stock market rebounded sharply from early April, with the MSCI global index rising 21% for the year, marking the sixth occurrence of double-digit annual growth in the past seven years [5]. - The technology sector, especially semiconductors and AI-related fields, led the market rally, with the U.S. indices recording substantial gains: Nasdaq up 20.76%, S&P 500 up 16.39%, and Dow Jones up 12.97% [5][7]. - European markets also performed well, with Spain's IBEX35 index soaring 49.27%, Italy's IT 40 index up 31.47%, and Germany's DAX 30 index rising 23.01% [7][8]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experienced significant divergence, with gold prices rising 64.60%, silver up 144.53%, and platinum up 124.29%, marking the best annual performance since the 1979 oil crisis [9][11]. - Industrial metals also saw strong gains, with copper prices reaching a historical high of $12,960 per ton, up 41.78%, driven by demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [9]. - Conversely, cocoa prices plummeted 47.47%, while crude oil prices fell for the third consecutive year, with WTI down 19.91% and Brent down 18.44% [10][11]. Group 3: Currency Market Developments - The U.S. dollar fell 9.37%, the largest annual decline since 2017, leading to a rise in other currencies: the euro increased by 13.3% and the Swiss franc by 14.5% [11]. - Emerging market currencies showed resilience, with the Russian ruble appreciating 30% amid renewed interactions with the U.S. [11]. Group 4: Future Market Uncertainties - As 2026 approaches, uncertainties remain, including the impact of U.S. midterm elections and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, which could affect monetary policy [13]. - The AI sector faces challenges regarding investment returns, with concerns about the sustainability of its growth model, which relies heavily on external funding [13][14]. - Geopolitical factors, including elections in Israel and Hungary, as well as ongoing conflicts, will continue to influence market dynamics [13].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is experiencing significant economic growth, with a projected GDP growth rate of 7.4% to 8% by 2025, making it a "star" in global economic development [5][6]. Economic Performance - Vietnam achieved a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of the year, the highest in 15 years, and aims for an annual target of 8% [6]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached $117.2 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong investment interest [6][8]. - The total trade volume is expected to reach $900 billion by 2025, significantly exceeding the GDP of $470 billion in 2024 [6]. Geopolitical and Geographical Challenges - Vietnam's geographical position, while advantageous for trade, limits its market size and resource availability, creating a natural ceiling for economic growth [12][16]. - The country's long and narrow shape complicates infrastructure development, leading to high costs and inefficiencies in transportation [16][18]. - Vietnam faces competition from neighboring countries in manufacturing and agriculture, increasing its reliance on external markets and making it vulnerable to geopolitical shifts [18][21]. Historical Context and Opportunities - Unlike successful countries like South Korea and Japan, Vietnam lacks the historical opportunities that facilitated their industrial growth, such as significant foreign aid and favorable global conditions [19][20]. - The current global economic environment is characterized by rising protectionism and localized supply chains, which pose challenges for Vietnam's export-driven economy [21][23]. Governance and Institutional Challenges - Vietnam struggles with governance issues, including a fragmented political landscape and inefficient policy execution, stemming from historical conflicts [25][27]. - The administrative structure is overly complex, with a high percentage of the budget allocated to public sector salaries, limiting investment in critical areas like education and infrastructure [27][30]. - The lack of skilled labor and inadequate governance capacity hinder Vietnam's ability to transition from an assembly-based economy to one focused on high-value industries [25][30].

2026.01. 01 本文字数：1763，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱小岩 封图 | 也门首都萨那（来源：新华社） 2025年末，也门局势升级，背后沙特与阿联酋的关系也在恶化。 据新华社报道，2025年12月30日，沙特阿拉伯主导的多国联军，在也门穆卡拉港对从两艘船上卸载 的武器和作战车辆进行了打击，联军说两艘船来自阿联酋。阿联酋则否认船上有武器。 沙特对阿联酋的船只直接动武，使得两国关系骤然紧张。沙特和阿联酋是海湾地区最大的两个经济 体，过往两国虽然在石油额度分配和地缘影响力上有诸多分歧，但在公开场合，都还保持着友好的姿 态。 复旦大学中东研究中心研究员邹志强向第一财经记者表示，此次打击是也门反胡塞武装阵营内部矛盾 积累的结果，也是沙特和阿联酋作为反胡塞阵营背后支持者矛盾积累的结果。 他进一步解释道，阿联酋希望在也门发挥更大影响力，引发沙特的反制，沙特认为阿联酋的举动影响 到了自身国家安全，最终使双方矛盾显性化，同时也门内部局势也由此到了新的临界点，各派的对抗 可能会进一步加剧。 也门局势 在沙特动武后，沙特主导的多国联军发言人图尔基·马利基发表声明说，12月27日至28日，两艘来自 阿联酋 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管多数投资者早已预判，随着特朗普重返世界最大经济体的权力中心，2025年的市场格局必将有所不同，但 鲜有人能料到此番行情的波谲云诡，以及最终呈现的结果。 全球股市从4月"解放日"关税政策引发的暴跌中强势复苏，2025年全年涨幅达21%，在过去七年里第六度实现两位数增长。然而，放 眼其他资产类别，意外之处比比皆是。 黄金，这一公认的乱世避险港，迎来了自1979年石油危机以来表现最佳的一年，全年涨幅逼近65%;反观美元指数下跌近10%，原油 价格跌幅约18%，而债券市场中风险最高的垃圾债却走出暴涨行情。 自人工智能(AI)龙头企业英伟达(NVDA.US)于10月成为全球首家市值突破5万亿美元的公司后，美国"七巨头"的光环似乎有所褪色， 比特币市值也骤然蒸发了三分之一。 双线资本基金经理Bill Campbell将2025年描述为"变革之年与惊喜之年"。他指出，各类资产的大幅波动均与贸易战、地缘政治及债 务问题这三大颠覆性议题"紧密交织"。 Campbell表示："倘若有人事先告诉我，特朗普会再度入主白宫，并以当前的节奏推行激进的贸易政策，我绝不会预料到估值会像 今天这样坚挺或高企。" 受特朗 ...

新一年有哪些风险因素？ AI引领股市上扬 经历了对特朗普关税政策的恐慌释放，全球股市自4月初开始触底反弹，摩根士丹利资本国际公司编制 MSCI全球指数全年累计上涨21%——过去七年间，这已是第六次实现两位数年度涨幅。科技板块持续 引领全球行情，半导体与AI相关领域表现尤为突出。 美国三大股指录得连续三年上涨超10%，其中道指涨12.97%，纳指涨20.76%，标普500指数涨16.39%。 自人工智能领域的龙头股英伟达于去年10月成为全球首家市值突破5万亿美元的企业后，科技七巨头的 光环似乎有所褪色。人工智能领域的热潮曾是拉动美股估值上升的重要因素，其中既包括市场对该领域 基础设施建设的巨额投入预期，也涵盖了市场对人工智能应用需求激增的期待。不过近期，市场对人工 智能相关资本支出回报率的质疑情绪升温，拖累科技股及其他人工智能概念股走弱，这一话题也可能成 为2026年市场关注的核心。 | | 2025 年全球主要股市表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国 | 纳斯达克指数 | +20.76% | | | 标普 500 指数 | +16.39% | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | +12.97 ...

[Table_Main] 美国国家安全战略对中国矿业的影响 ——国际地缘政治系列之二 报告要点 美国的全球战略布局出现调整。2025 年发布的美国《国家安全战略》标志着 美国全球战略的重大转变，美国不再致力于向全球输出意识形态，而是将重点 转向捍卫"西方文明"的核心堡垒（美洲）及其势力范围，并凸显了对于矿产 资源的高度重视及竞争意图。在西半球，美国提出了"门罗主义的特朗普推论"， 将西半球视为不可侵犯的核心势力范围和需要被"净化"的战略纵深。在印太 地区，美国采取务实的利益博弈，不再强调意识形态对抗，而是联合日本、韩 国、澳大利亚及印度等盟友，通过增强军事威慑和供应链合作来遏制中国，并 明确"经济是决胜点"。在欧洲，美国指责欧洲经济衰退和移民政策削弱了西 方文明根基。在非洲与中东，美国转向"资源交易主义"，不再纠结政体问题， 而是直接与中国展开资源竞争。 美国可能采取哪些遏制中国矿业的手段？一是法律壁垒，通过"受关注外国实 体"规则极化和"有效控制"概念的扩张，强制重组全球矿业股权，挤压中企 出海路径。利用国家安全审查实施具有追溯性的资产剥离等等。二是金融制裁， 利用美元霸权切断中企融资管道，阻击 IPO，扩 ...

沙特阿拉伯主导的多国联军袭击了在也门的阿联酋船只。 此次遭沙特打击的南方过渡委员会成立于2017年，由时任亚丁省省长祖贝迪成立，组织武装对抗政府。 2020年年底，被国际承认的也门政府与南方过渡委员会组建联合政府，也门南部大部分地区实现了名义 上的统一。 2022年，该组织加入沙特主导的多国联军以打击胡塞武装，且加入也门政府行政机构总统领导委员会， 但仍然坚持要求实现南部地区的"主权"，导致其与也门政府在权力分配和资源控制问题上多次发生冲 突。 据新华社报道，2025年12月30日，沙特阿拉伯主导的多国联军，在也门穆卡拉港对从两艘船上卸载的武 器和作战车辆进行了打击，联军说两艘船来自阿联酋。阿联酋则否认船上有武器。 2025年末，也门局势升级，背后沙特与阿联酋的关系也在恶化。 沙特对阿联酋的船只直接动武，使得两国关系骤然紧张。沙特和阿联酋是海湾地区最大的两个经济体， 过往两国虽然在石油额度分配和地缘影响力上有诸多分歧，但在公开场合，都还保持着友好的姿态。 复旦大学中东研究中心研究员邹志强向第一财经记者表示，此次打击是也门反胡塞武装阵营内部矛盾积 累的结果，也是沙特和阿联酋作为反胡塞阵营背后支持者矛盾积累的结果 ...

大多数投资者都知道，随着特朗普重掌全球最大经济体的大权，今年注定会与众不同，但很少有人预料 到过程会如此狂野，或者结局会是这般模样。 全球股市从4月"解放日"关税引发的暴跌中恢复过来，并在2025年上涨了21%，这是过去七年中第六个 实现两位数增长的年份。但看看其他领域，意外接踵而至。 作为风暴中的终极避风港，黄金飙升了近70%，创下自1979年石油危机以来的最佳年度表现，而美元下 跌近10%，石油下跌近17%，然而债务市场中垃圾债里的垃圾债却飙升。 自从人工智能宠儿英伟达在10月成为全球首家市值5万亿美元的公司以来，美国科技巨头"七巨头"似乎 失去了一些光彩，而比特币也突然损失了三分之一的价值。 DoubleLine基金经理Bill Campbell将2025年描述为"变革之年和意外之年"，所有的大动作都与同样的震 动性议题"交织"在一起——贸易战、地缘政治和债务。 "如果你事先告诉我，特朗普上台后会采取非常激进的贸易政策并按现在的顺序实施，我绝对想不到估 值会像今天这样紧绷或高昂，"Campbell说道。 欧洲武器制造商股价飙升55%也是受特朗普推动，此前有信号表明他将缩减对欧洲的军事保护，迫使该 地区以 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The current fundamental pattern of oil prices is still dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil price center [3] - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, but do not change the oversupply situation; the market is expected to remain weak [4] - The commercial inventory of asphalt has weak de - stocking, and cost factors provide bottom support [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventory may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical conflicts lead to pulse - type price increases, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists, and the main tone of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors such as the slowdown of loading in the Middle East and Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and sanctions cause short - term market disturbances [4] - The improvement of refinery profit and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports may boost the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock, but high inventory pressure is significant [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to gradually recover; demand for marine fuel is weak and the weak trend is difficult to reverse [4] Asphalt - Last week, the commercial inventory of asphalt had weak de - stocking, and the factory inventory ended the de - stocking trend since mid - October and started to increase [5] - The US - Venezuela situation has affected the supply of heavy raw materials, and cost factors provide bottom support for asphalt [5]

港股2025年行情收官，港股市场热点板块涨幅显示，铜板块涨幅最为亮眼，其次是黄金股，半导体板块 涨幅紧随其后，生物医药股、保险股、航空股、中资券商股、银行股、石油股、光伏股、军工股、汽车 股皆表现强势。 仅从下图这份榜单看，2025年的行情由三条由强到弱的主线贯穿： 最强主线 - 资源与通胀（进攻性）：铜、黄金、石油、煤炭、钢铁。这反映了市场对全球再通胀、地缘 政治和能源转型下资源品长期价值的重估。 核心主线 - 科技与创新（成长性）：半导体、创新概念、生物医药、锂电池。这代表了国家产业升级和 自主可控的核心方向，资金给予高景气溢价。 稳健主线 - 金融与重资产（防御性）：保险、银行、电力、基建。这类板块盈利稳定、股息率高，在不 确定性中提供安全垫，同时受益于"中特估"逻辑。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 年初至今涨V | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIST1077 | 铜 | 5964.735 | 261.85% | | LIST1222 | 更美股 | 6205.046 | 169.01% | | LIST1013 | 半导体 | 4987.866 | 143.02% ...