年前买的古井，想支持一下家乡企业。结果出台禁酒令，安徽特别严重。啥时候能止跌啊，情绪 还在慢慢发酵，不敢加仓。 酱油面 很多人有个误解： 买股票是为了支持这家企业。 大错特错，买股票是支持"前股东"（卖给你股票的那个）。 真正要支持这家企业，就去买它的产品！！！！！！ 这句话要说3次： 真正要支持这家企业，就去买它的产品！！！！！！ 真正要支持这家企业，就去买它的产品！！！！！！ 真正要支持这家企业，就去买它的产品！！！！！！ 明心1 我买股票是为了赚钱。 你买股票是为了支持家乡企业，都这么伟大了，还不能接受亏损的事实？ 资水 禁酒令的原因可能是财政没钱了，工资都发不出，吃喝玩乐当然应该卡掉。 据说，财政支出的40%是用于公职人员的工资、社保和医保： 全国财政支出中，公职人员（公务员、事业编、教师、医生等）薪酬福利支出约占34%，其中公 务员薪酬占比约3.4%，其他公职人员（事业编、教师、医生）占比约30%，若包含社保、福利等 支出，广义公职待遇支出占比可能达40%。 凡先生 AI总结得挺好的 经济不景气，房地产相关行业躺平才是白酒不行的根本原因。 有人说，茅台是一种重要的基建材料。 53度飞天茅台从最高38 ...

在批发参考价"破防"面积扩大的同时， 飞天茅台零售价格也在持续"跳水"。 投资快报记者查询发现， 6月15日，拼多多上飞天茅台在一些店铺的售价仅1840元/瓶，双瓶 装售价3650元，折合每瓶仅1825元，相关店铺均称假一赔十；京东也有店铺在以不到2000元/ 瓶的价格在叫卖，其中一家店铺售价为1989元/瓶， 页面显示买家评价26，好评率100%。 飞天茅台"破防"的面积进一步扩大。 6月15日，"今日酒价"公众号披露的批发参考价显示，25年飞天茅台（53度/500ml，下同）散 瓶价1960元/瓶，与上一日持平；原箱报1990元/瓶，较上一日下跌10元。24年散瓶价1990元/ 瓶，较上一日下跌20元；原箱报2075元/瓶，与上一日持平。 其中，25年飞天茅台原箱、24年 散瓶批发参考价均为首次跌破2000元的"心理防线"。 值得一提的是， 年初"今日酒价"上为3800元/瓶的生肖蛇（俗称"蛇茅"），原箱价较上一日大 跌120元至2300元/瓶，为其上市以来新低，较高位的跌幅超过了39%。 此外，今年才正式发 布的笙乐飞天报2350元/瓶，较上一日下跌100元， 较3400元/瓶的高位跌去了三成；公斤茅台 ...

Group 1 - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with the white liquor index dropping 4.8% this week and a year-to-date decline of 17.4% [1][2] - Several companies, including Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yanghe, have seen their stock prices hit new lows for the year, with Gujing Gongjiu's stock price reaching a five-year low [2][3] - The decline in high-end liquor prices is attributed to limited consumption scenarios, increased pressure on channels for cash flow, and the impact of e-commerce subsidies [1][3] Group 2 - The basic performance of the industry is under pressure, with Moutai's bottle price decreasing by 70 yuan week-on-week, and the original box price down by 90 yuan [3] - The second quarter is expected to show weak fundamentals, with inventory levels increasing post-Duanwu Festival and companies focusing on promotions and destocking [3][4] - Despite the current challenges, there are three positive factors that may support a more optimistic outlook for the industry, including the stabilization of Moutai's wholesale price and the proactive strategies of leading companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, with predictions that if it falls to 1900 yuan, most distributors will incur losses due to various hidden costs involved in the distribution process [1][3][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 12, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has shown a clear downward trend, with prices dropping to 1990 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [8]. - The price for Feitian Moutai in original boxes has also decreased significantly, now quoted at 2080 yuan per bottle, down 30 yuan from the previous day [8]. - Some e-commerce platforms have reported prices as low as 1900 yuan for individual bottles, indicating a significant price disparity in the market [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices is attributed to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected market demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, leading distributors to sell at a loss to recover funds [8]. - E-commerce promotional strategies, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, have further pressured prices downward as many platforms use low-priced Moutai as a loss leader to attract customers [8]. - The current consumption environment has changed significantly, contributing to a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with consumers increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach [9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is growing consumer hesitation, with many choosing to hold off on purchases in anticipation of further price drops [9]. - The introduction of a ban on alcohol consumption raises questions about the future consumer base for Moutai, as it may limit the number of individuals willing to purchase and consume the product [9].

01 断崖式下跌，防线全面失守 2025年6月11日，智通财经在第三方检测平台今日酒价上看到，2025年53度飞天茅台（散瓶）批价达 1990 元 / 瓶，较之前出现下跌；到了6月12日，价格 又进一步下滑至1980元 / 瓶 。6月13日，2025年飞天茅台散瓶批发价跌至1960元/瓶。这一价格的暴跌，让整个市场都为之震惊。曾经对飞天茅台价格坚信 不疑的人们，此刻纷纷瞪大了眼睛，不敢相信眼前的事实。一些在高位入手飞天茅台的投资者，更是欲哭无泪，仿佛一夜之间，自己的财富大幅缩水，那 种心痛的感觉，就像是被人在胸口狠狠地打了一拳。 与年初相比，53度飞天茅台散瓶与原箱批价分别下滑9.01%和10.15%。若将时间线拉长至一年，跌幅更达18%。 声明：本文仅为资讯分享，不构成任何建议。 近日一张微信群聊天截图在"撸毛圈"疯传，短短数小时内，数万黄牛集体在酒品行申请开票，拒收货物、索要赔偿，一场针对电商平台的"反击战"悄然打 响。 "今天收酒就像接飞刀，1800收，明天1600都卖不掉。"上海一名黄牛盯着手机屏幕上的飞天茅台批发价摇头。6月13日，2025年飞天茅台散瓶批发价跌至 1960元/瓶，创下近几年新低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the high-end segment represented by Moutai, is experiencing significant price declines and market challenges, raising concerns about its future viability and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Moutai's stock price has dropped from 1645 yuan on May 14 to 1427 yuan, a decline of 13% in one month, reflecting broader struggles within the liquor sector [1]. - Moutai's price has decreased by 45% from its peak of 2608 yuan in 2021, indicating a more severe downturn compared to the 2008 financial crisis [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent alcohol ban implemented on May 18 has negatively affected the liquor industry, particularly high-end brands, as it restricts business consumption, which previously relied on premium products like Moutai [3]. - The ban's impact has led to a broader decline in the market, with secondary brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu experiencing a 14% drop in the last 20 days, even more than Moutai [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence within the industry; while high-end brands struggle, some mass-market products are seeing increased sales, indicating a shift from luxury consumption to essential needs [3][4]. - Liquor companies are proactively managing supply to maintain prices, with notable actions such as Wuliangye halting the supply of its eighth-generation product and Yanghe implementing quotas [4]. Group 4: Capital Movements - Despite the stock price decline, Moutai's financing balance has increased by 2 billion yuan, suggesting that some investors are taking advantage of lower prices to buy in [4]. - Major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are using bank loans to repurchase their own shares, signaling confidence in the long-term value of the industry [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The liquor sector's current price-to-earnings ratio of 25 is lower than 80% of the time over the past decade, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. - Key indicators for potential recovery include Moutai's price stabilizing above 2200 yuan, improved sales data during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and signs of policy-driven consumer stimulus [4]. Group 6: Industry Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers showing less interest in high-alcohol products, prompting brands to innovate with lower-alcohol options and cocktails [4].

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised regulations on government spending, particularly the "new ban on alcohol," have significantly impacted the liquor industry, especially the white liquor sector, which is experiencing a shift in consumption patterns and market strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The revised regulations prohibit high-end dishes, cigarettes, and alcohol during official receptions, leading to a strong reaction in the white liquor industry [1]. - Following the introduction of the "Eight Regulations" in 2012, the white liquor industry faced a significant downturn, with government consumption accounting for 40% of the market at that time. Currently, this figure has dropped to approximately 5%, with leading companies like Moutai seeing government channel sales below 1% [3]. Group 2: Market Response - Despite the new regulations, the actual sales impact on the white liquor industry is expected to be limited, as the government consumption share has already decreased. However, the capital market reacted negatively, with the white liquor sector index dropping over 2% on the first trading day after the announcement, and major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing stock price declines of 2%-3% [3]. Group 3: Industry Adaptation - The white liquor industry is actively adapting to the new policy environment by diversifying its product offerings across different price ranges and consumption scenarios. Leading brands maintain strength in social drinking contexts, while lower-priced options are gaining popularity among cost-conscious consumers [5]. - Companies are innovating to attract younger consumers through product and scenario innovation, as well as cross-industry collaborations. For instance, Luzhou Laojiao has introduced low-alcohol beverages with herbal ingredients, and Wuliangye has partnered with esports IPs to launch new products [7].

面对白酒行业的结构性萎缩，市场预计这一轮茅台酒零售终端降价，可能会持续到经济超预期复苏，以及由此刺激的消费强劲增长，或者其零售 价逐步接近官方零售指导价之时 文｜刘建中 陈汐 第二，客户黏性好。 第三，产品保质期超长。食品饮料的保质期大多是一年或低于一年，保质期过半的商品往往要打折促销。白酒的保质期却在十年以上，酱香型白 酒飞天茅台更是能存放三十年以上。其他商品销售不畅时，往往要进行存货减值。而白酒最主要的存货，半成品"基酒"，却能随着存放时间而增 值。 第四，高端白酒企业的应收账款很少，因为除了实力非常强的客户，高端白酒都采取先款后货的销货方式。 第五，资产负债率一般很低，财务安全性高。2024年底贵州茅台有息负债率接近于零，账面上还躺着593亿元现金。 第六，不需要大量的研发投入，高端白酒企业的研发费用在营收中的占比非常少。2024年，贵州茅台研发费用与营业收入的比值为0.13%，而A股 上市公司的中值为4.12%。 2024年初以来，53度飞天茅台价格呈整体下跌态势，几乎每一次降价都会引发社会关注。 贵州茅台在资本市场也倍受追捧，在2019年到2022年之间，其市值常常是A股第一。高端白酒是非常好的生意 ...

1.茅台集团：推动白酒回归初心 据贵州茅台微信公众号消息，6月10日，茅台集团领导干部大会召开。会议强调，要推动白酒回归"以之成礼、以之养老、以之成欢"的初心。要带头养成严格遵守中央八项规定及其实施细则精神 泸州老窖产品质量与安全白皮书发布 据泸州老窖企业文化中心微信公众号消息，近日，《泸州老窖股份有限公司产品质量与安全白皮书（2024）》发布，详细介绍了泸州老窖在食品质量安全领域的工作举措和所取得的成就，其内 今后，泸州老窖将持续以"质量领航者"姿态深耕行业变革，坚守更严标准、更高要求、更实举措，严守安全红线，追求卓越品质：以"技术革新、标准输出、文化传承"三维驱动，协同产业链伙 习酒：以科技创新促进生产 据君品习酒微信公众号消息，近日，习酒股份公司召开2025年度中期生产技术分析会。会议强调，全体习酒人要以"归零"的心态和作风，不断夯实助推习酒高质量发展的酿造基础。一是要以微 青花郎（低碳版）限量预售 据青花郎微信公众号消息，6月12日，第五代青花郎（低碳版）开始预售，限量仅1364件（1件6瓶装），售罄即止。据悉，第五代青花郎（低碳版）酒精度53%vol，每瓶500mL，建议零售价1 剑南春5万吨基酒项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 618 shopping festival has led to significant price reductions in the Chinese liquor market, particularly for high-end baijiu brands, as manufacturers aim to alleviate inventory pressure during a seasonal consumption lull [1][22]. Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 sampled baijiu products saw a decline in average retail prices, with notable drops in high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][2]. - The average retail price of Moutai in Guangzhou is approximately 2404 RMB, down over 100 RMB from the previous period [2]. - In Shenzhen, most products remained stable, but Moutai was largely unavailable, leading to price fluctuations [6][7]. - In Dongguan, Moutai's price increased significantly due to supply instability, rising from 2299 RMB to 2800 RMB [11][12]. Price Changes by Product - High-end products like the Eighth Generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experienced price drops, with Guojiao 1573 decreasing from 1075 RMB to 1004 RMB [12][13]. - The average price of the high-end product Junpin Xijiu fell to around 845 RMB in Guangzhou, with significant reductions noted across various retail channels [2][3]. - The price of Qinghualang in Dongguan dropped from 1055 RMB to 965 RMB, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in the market [12][13]. E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have seen more pronounced price reductions, with many baijiu brands offering discounts and promotional activities during the 618 festival [16][20]. - On Tmall, the price of Hong Xifeng dropped from 1157 RMB to 1056 RMB, while Guojiao 1573 and Gujing Gongjiu also saw minor declines [19]. - The overall sales volume for liquor on Tmall surged by 72% year-on-year during the promotional period, indicating a positive response to lower prices [19][22]. Market Dynamics - The current price declines are attributed to a structural transformation in the baijiu industry, exacerbated by seasonal consumption patterns and increased competition from online channels [22]. - The price index for national baijiu showed a slight decrease of 0.35% in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in maintaining price stability amid aggressive promotional strategies [22]. - Manufacturers are facing pressure to manage inventory while navigating the complexities of pricing strategies in a competitive market environment [22].