展望2026年，饶刚认为，全球资产定价的影响因素可能从货币政策主导向货币政策与财政政策共同主导 倾斜。对于2026年的投资机遇，饶刚表示，一是AI近几年快速发展，行业体量足以构成宏观层面的波 动来源，是不容忽视的风险和机遇来源；二是中国制造业迈上新台阶，出海的风险与机遇并存，目前中 国的海外投资收益仍低于部分发达国家，而且中国的制造业企业具备显著的性价比优势，中国企业出海 故事将是更长期的、值得挖掘的投资机遇；三是随着地产链下行和内需板块估值下移，中国很多消费龙 头企业已具备4%以上的股息率以及稳定需求，并且可能隐含未来内需提升的上涨需求，目前已具备左 侧配置价值。 日前，由中国证券报主办的"开放融合新机——2025海外投资发展大会"在上海举行，睿远基金总经理饶 刚在圆桌对话环节表示，回望2025年，欧美降息通道和日本加息通道虽然构成了体感上的分化，但从经 济总量和金融市场维度来看，货币政策分化并未扭转全球流动性宽松的趋势，全球资产定价的主要驱动 力仍是流动性宽松以及伴随而来的弱美元格局。 ...

"这让我判断，当前的货币政策可能已经非常接近中性水平，"卡什卡利说。 2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）表示，目前美国利率水平可能已 接近对经济既不产生刺激、也不形成抑制的"中性利率"，未来美联储的政策走向将取决于最新经济数 据。 卡什卡利周一在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，过去几年里，市场和政策制定者一度普遍认为美国经济将明 显放缓，但事实证明，经济表现远比他此前预期得更具韧性。他指出，既然经济在高利率环境下仍能保 持较强增长，说明货币政策对经济的下行压制作用可能并不明显。 卡什卡利表示，美联储需要更多数据来判断，究竟是通胀因素还是劳动力市场变化对经济的影响更为主 导，"然后再从中性立场出发，朝必要的方向调整政策"。 他同时指出，就业已经明显降温，通胀面临的主要风险在于其持续性——关税等因素对物价的影响可能 需要数年时间才能完全传导；而在他看来，失业率从当前水平进一步上升的风险同样不容忽视。尽管通 胀有所回落，但下降速度仍然较慢，中低收入群体的焦虑情绪主要来源于通胀压力。 在谈及美联储人事问题时，卡什卡利表示，他并不清楚美联储主席鲍威尔在主席任期结束后是否会继续 ...

固定收益报告 在岸市场：节后资金利率明显回落 节日资金需求量较大，人行上周通过逆回购操作净投放短期流动性 7374 亿人民 币。元旦假期后，资金回流银行体系，银行间资金利率明显下行，7 天存款类机 构质押式回购加权利率和 7 天银行间质押式回购加权利率全周分别下行 17 个和 48 个基点至 1.43%和 1.45%。3 年期和 10 年期国债收益率全周分别持平和下行 1 个基点至 1.38%和 1.85%。 固收周报 市场避险情绪未见明显增强 受假期影响，上周中资离岸债新发行冷淡，基本无新发行。美债收益率表现分化， 10 年期和 2 年期美债收益率上周分别上行 6 个和下行 1 个基点至 4.19% 和 3.47% 。 12 月份议息会议纪要显示，大多数与会者认为，若通胀如预期逐步下降，进一步 降息可能是适合的。总的来看，虽然通胀仍高于美联储政策目标，但在缺少进一 步上行趋势背景下，多数美联储官员倾向于降息以支持就业市场。从周一亚洲市 场走势看，上周末的委内瑞拉变局并未明显推升市场避险情绪，石油价格也大体 稳定。在这样的背景下，周一亚洲时段美债收益率变动并不大。彭博巴克莱中资 美元债总回报指数上周基本持平。 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铜铝 | 周报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 电话：0571-87006873 铜价强势，铝价补涨 核心观点 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 | 1 宏观因素 4 | | --- | | 2 铜 5 | | 2.1 量价走势 5 | | 2.2 铜矿紧缺 6 | | 2.3 电解铜累库 6 | | 2.4 下游初端 7 | | 3 铝 8 | | 3.1 量价走势 8 | | 3.2 上游产业链 9 | | 3.3 电解铝去化放缓 10 | | 3.4 下 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，正在考虑以"无能"为由起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，预计将于1月宣布美联储主席人 选。 【机构观点】 贵金属市场格局受地缘政治突发事件主导，黄金作为核心避险资产，或将因短期避险买盘而获得支撑， 但全球主要交易所为抑制过度投机而可能采取的调整保证金等规则，将限制其单边上涨空间，使其走势 呈现高位宽幅震荡；白银价格将紧随黄金，但因杠杆属性更强而对潜在交易规则变化更为敏感；铂金与 钯金作为工业属性主导的品种，其走势将与金银显著分化，事件引发的整体贵金属情绪虽能提供有限带 动，但市场对全球经济增长与汽车产业链的担忧将压制其工业需求前景，预计其表现将明显弱于黄金。 2026年1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫 人，并带离委内瑞拉。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基与美国总统特朗普会晤后表示，美乌双方已就一项20点和平计划取得"重大成果"， 约90%的内容已达成一致，美乌就安全保障已"完全达成一致"。 美国总统特朗普宣布将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉，并威胁称如果伊朗发展弹道导弹计划，将支持以色列 发起打击。伊朗因美国制裁导致经济严重受损，政府正紧急讨论汇率、贸易和民生问题。 ...

Market Overview - On January 5, the A-share market opened high and trended upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3984 points before stabilizing and rising[2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42 points, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24% to 13828.63 points[7][8] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 25,675 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3][16] Sector Performance - Strong performers included insurance, medical services, semiconductors, and electronic components, while tourism, aviation, robotics, and railways lagged[3][7] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in sectors like medical devices and shipbuilding[7][9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.30 times and 49.98 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment[3][16] Economic Outlook - The attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, with expectations for credit growth and supportive policies in the new year[3][16] - The domestic monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," while the market anticipates continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, contributing to a more favorable global liquidity environment[3][16] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as electronic components, semiconductors, insurance, and medical services for short-term opportunities[3][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core background for the bond market in 2026 remains the continuation of the "liquidation phase" of the debt cycle. The bond yield central - downward space is limited, and the risk of a significant upward movement is also controllable [3]. - Inflation is likely to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026. The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to disappear, but it is unlikely to drive interest rates up [4]. - Fiscal policy maintains a more proactive stance, with a high supply of government bonds in 2026. The supply shock of government bonds remains the main risk factor in the "low - interest - rate" phase [5]. - Monetary policy continues its moderately loose tone, shifting its focus from quantity to price. There is still room for a small - scale reduction in policy rates [6]. - In 2026, the bond market's capital structure will be dominated by allocation - type accounts. The yield curve is likely to remain steep, and the riding strategy may be the best choice [7]. - For the credit strategy, avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums and apply the riding strategy to safe assets. Focus on the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds, infrastructure chains, and cyclical industrial bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt Cycle: "Liquidation Phase" Still in Progress - **Leverage Ratio Clearing and Transfer in 2026**: The macro - leverage ratio is in a state of "structural differentiation and overall stability". The de - leveraging process of the household sector is deepening, the enterprise sector's leverage ratio fluctuates at a high level, and the government sector's leverage ratio is expected to rise [23][25][26]. - **Relief of Liability Pressure in Three Sectors**: The liability cost of the household sector has decreased, the enterprise sector's interest - payment pressure has eased but the overall debt pressure remains large, and the government sector's interest - payment pressure is under control [31][35][38]. - **Policy Combination and Asset Prices in the "Liquidation Phase"**: China's debt cycle is still in the "liquidation phase". Fiscal and monetary policies need to maintain a "double - loose" combination. Asset prices should reflect new kinetic energy and improved expectations while considering the background of the debt cycle [43][44][45]. 3.2 Price Trends: Inflation May Enter a Mild Recovery Phase - **Food Prices**: The pig cycle may reach an inflection point in mid - 2026. Food prices are expected to show a trend of "stable first, then rising, with converging fluctuations", and the negative contribution of food prices to CPI is expected to weaken [52]. - **Energy Prices**: In 2026, energy prices are likely to be in a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and fluctuating weakly", with limited direct support for inflation [55]. - **Core Inflation**: Policy may drive the central trend to be low in the first half and high in the second half of the year, with a mild recovery throughout the year. The core CPI central may be between 0.8% - 1.2% [59]. - **Industrial Product Prices**: With the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the decline of PPI is expected to narrow. The PPI is expected to have an annual central around - 1.95%, and may turn positive periodically [63]. - **Inflation Outlook**: The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to be zero. CPI is expected to rise moderately, and PPI's decline is expected to narrow to - 2.0% [66]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy: More Proactive Stance with Maintained Debt - Issuing Scale - **Policy Tone**: Fiscal policy remains proactive in 2026. The general deficit rate is expected to remain around 4%, and the general deficit scale is about 14.55 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2025 [74]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The maturity pressure in 2026 is reduced, and the net issuance is expected to increase steadily. The annual issuance is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan [77]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance scale in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, and attention should be paid to the progress of debt - resolution work [85]. 3.4 Monetary Policy: Continued Loose Tone with Focus Shifted to Price Regulation - **Policy Tone**: In 2026, the pattern of stable and loose liquidity is likely to continue. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and the marketization of the interest - rate corridor, policy - rate system, and liability - side price mechanism will further improve [97][98]. - **Price - based Tools**: There is still room for a 20BP reduction in policy rates in 2026, which may guide a new round of adjustments in the interest - rate system [101][102]. - **Quantity - based Tools**: The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has significantly decreased. The regular operations of repurchase and MLF are expected to continue, and the scale of central bank bond - buying operations may decline [105][110][111]. - **Credit and Social Financing**: The de - leveraging cycles of households and enterprises continue, and credit growth faces continuous pressure. Government bond financing and enterprise bond financing expand to offset the weakening of general loan demand [117][120][123]. - **Deposit Situation**: Personal savings continue to grow at a high rate, and non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics. Unit deposits show differentiated fluctuations [129]. - **Narrow - sense Liquidity**: Liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable" characteristics of a downward price central and further converging volatility [140]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Allocation - type Accounts Dominate, Trading - type Accounts Under Pressure - **Banks**: In 2025, banks' bond investment thinking has changed systematically. In 2026, the main line of banks' bond investment with an allocation mindset will continue [155]. - **Insurance**: Insurance has a rigid demand for asset - liability duration matching. The allocation of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds has decreased, and the allocation of high - grade credit bonds and policy - based financial bonds has increased [175][180][186]. - **Wealth Management**: The scale of wealth management products is expected to grow in 2026. Asset allocation will focus on "net - value stability", with a preference for short - duration, high - liquidity assets [205][217]. - **Bond Funds**: The pattern of public - offering bond funds is about to change significantly. The trends of amortized - cost and ETF products will continue [218][230][231]. 3.6 Interest Rate Strategy: The Limit of Steepness and the Boundary of Riding - **Curve Shape**: In 2026, the yield curve is likely to remain steep, with the short - end likely to fall and the long - end difficult to decline [237][238]. - **Four Constraints**: Four factors limit the significant upward movement of long - end yields, including the decline of ROIC, the downward trend of long - term loan rates, the neutral stock - bond ratio, and the decline of banks' and insurance companies' liability costs [239][242][244]. - **Interest Rate Strategy**: The riding strategy may be the best choice in 2026, with a focus on the 5 - year Treasury bond [253][254][258]. 3.7 Credit Strategy: Supply Pattern Changes Significantly, Risk Premium Re - evaluated - **Credit Bond Supply**: The issuance of urban investment bonds continues to decline, while the issuance of industrial bonds and quasi - urban investment bonds increases rapidly. Science and technology innovation bonds have become the main incremental source of credit bond supply [263][276][281]. - **Capital Bond Supply**: The issuance of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continues to decline, and there is still a small gap in TLAC for some banks [290][296]. - **Credit Strategy**: Avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums in some credit bond sectors. The riding strategy is applicable to short - duration credit bonds, and attention should be paid to the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds and infrastructure - related industrial bonds [303][316][320].

作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，2026年不仅承载着"开好局、起好步"的重要使命，更迎来了国内外宏观 环境多重变化的共振。 从国际来看，美联储货币政策立场的微妙调整、欧洲经济复苏动能的强弱切换、通胀压力下日本央行的 政策动向，全球流动性格局的演变等构成了复杂多变的外部环境。 从国内而言，"十五五"规划开局之年的财政政策与货币政策将如何精准发力，为资本市场提供持续上行 动力？A股市场机遇与挑战并存。 丙午奋蹄，踏浪前行。红启东方，智投未来。 1月9日下午，由博时基金和证券时报联合主办的博时基金2026年投资策略会即将在上海启幕，本次论坛 以"丙午奋蹄投资路，红启东方十五五"为主题，汇聚行业大咖、资深分析师，深度解读政策导向、剖析 市场逻辑、展望投资机会，厘清丙午之年投资脉络，在不确定的市场中寻找投资机遇。 一元复始，万象更新。 新年伊始，资本市场活力迸发，投资者参与热情高涨，行情动力充沛，2026年资本市场开局即展现出强 劲韧性。 1月9日不见不散！ 责编：战术恒 排版：罗晓霞 校对：吕久彪 ...

政策方面，华尔街普遍预计美联储将忽略外部压力，继续小幅下调利率至接近3%的中性水平(目前仅比 长期目标高0.5个百分点)。全国保险首席经济学家博斯蒂安契克认为，进一步降息取决于数据，预计年 内有两次，年中及年底各一次；美联储"点阵图"仅显示一次，穆迪分析等因劳动力疲软预期三次。阿波 罗全球管理公司斯洛克则因经济强劲预计仅一次降息。 人工智能对经济的潜在影响亦成不确定因素。RSM首席经济学家布鲁修拉斯指出，AI既是生产率提升 器，也可能阻碍就业，美联储需评估其作用并有效沟通策略。亚特兰大联储初步数据显示，经济或在中 间两季度快速增长，四季度增速或达3%。在此背景下，校准货币政策难度加大，美联储需在技术整合 经济的转折期提供战略方向。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于992.11元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报988.65 元/克，涨幅1.73%，最高上探至991.97元/克，最低触及972.23元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于992.11元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报988.65元/ 克，涨幅1.73%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - **China**: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - **US**: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - **Alumina**: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].