Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent rebound of the US dollar due to renewed concerns over inflation stemming from tariff threats announced by President Trump [1][3] - President Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, and plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, shifting market focus towards potential inflation risks [1] - The ICE dollar index recorded its best weekly performance in over four months, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by 0.73%, marking its best performance since the week of February 28 [1] Group 2 - The dollar index rebounded nearly 1% this week, ending a two-week decline, as investor sentiment shifted from bearish to cautious optimism following tariff announcements [3] - Speculative traders have increased their bearish positions on the dollar, with non-commercial traders' positions nearing the most pessimistic levels since August 2023 [3] - Despite the recent rebound, JPMorgan strategists believe that the factors influencing the dollar's performance may not be significant in the medium term, predicting further weakness due to tariff and policy uncertainties [3]

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, believes the market is underestimating the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a probability of 40% to 50% compared to the market's 20% [1] - Dimon's perspective indicates a more cautious view of the economic environment, suggesting that the market may be overly optimistic about the Fed's policy direction [1] - There is increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some officials supporting rate cuts within the year while others advocate for a more cautious approach [1] Group 2 - The market currently assigns less than a 5% probability to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, reflecting investor caution regarding short-term policy changes [2] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, criticizing current interest rates and suggesting they are detrimental to the economy [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of policy independence, stating that decisions will be based on economic data rather than political pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of central banks and institutional investors shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold is strengthening, with expectations that this influx into gold will continue for decades due to increasing fiscal spending and money supply, which may devalue the dollar [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Trends - There has been a significant outflow of funds from U.S. long-term bond funds, amounting to approximately $10 billion from April to June, marking the largest outflow since the market turmoil in early 2020 [4]. - Investors are increasingly reconsidering their holdings in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and the potential for inflation [5][6]. - The traditional view of U.S. Treasury bonds as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios is changing, as both stocks and bonds have shown correlated declines during recent market shocks [6]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - The head of the securities department at the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry has successfully adjusted investment strategies to include gold, viewing it as a suitable asset to hedge against risks in both stocks and bonds [3]. - A report from the OMFIF indicates that one in three central banks plans to increase their gold holdings, signaling a cautious shift away from dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds [6].

现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

Economic Performance - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% drop but still below economists' expectations of a 0.1% growth [1] - If June's output falls by 0.4% or more, the second quarter will show a significant deterioration compared to the 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1] Currency and Fiscal Pressure - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.3% to 1.3545 USD, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [1] - The Labour government faces dual pressures to support fiscal spending goals through economic growth while managing recent policy reversals that have exacerbated fiscal challenges [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main contributors to the economic decline, with May output experiencing the largest drop in nearly 18 months [3] - The decline is attributed to ongoing economic weakness from April, U.S. tariff pressures, and rising household energy bills and property taxes [3] - The services sector also showed weak performance, with only a 0.1% growth in May, and retail sales significantly decreased [3] Employment and Taxation - Employers are facing an additional £26 billion in new payroll taxes, alongside rising regulated prices for services like rail fares and water, which are contributing to the economic downturn [5] - Since the budget announcement last October, over 250,000 jobs have been cut as businesses respond to significant increases in minimum wage [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - With inflation pressures easing, the market anticipates that the Bank of England will initiate interest rate cuts in August, with another expected by the end of the year [5] - Analysts suggest that the growth seen in the first quarter was a one-off event, primarily driven by preemptive production increases before the implementation of U.S. tariffs [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with prices continuing to move downward in a volatile fashion, hitting new recent lows, and the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates. There are pressures on the downstream start - up rates, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level range in the short - term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting boosted market optimism, with most policymakers believing that interest rate cuts later this year are appropriate. However, policymakers are still worried about the inflationary pressure brought by Trump's tariffs, and only a few officials think a rate cut could happen as early as this month [2]. - As of Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina has decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% compared to last week, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi undergoing maintenance and a decline in operating production capacity. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises' factories increased by 81,000 tons [3]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% compared to last week [3]. - On July 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the ingot - casting volume of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the arrival volume is still low, resulting in a short - term reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell centers around monetary policy, particularly the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates despite economic pressures [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Renovation Controversy - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters has seen its budget increase from $1.8 billion to $2.5 billion, with a cost overrun of approximately $700 million, leading to criticism from the White House [1]. - The average renovation cost per square foot is reported to be $1,923, which is double the typical cost for federal building renovations [1]. - The White House has raised concerns that the renovation may violate federal laws and has requested a written response from Powell regarding several issues within seven working days [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy Disputes - Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to lower interest rates to support economic growth, especially following the implementation of large tariffs [2]. - The White House's dissatisfaction with the Fed's stance has intensified, with officials accusing the Fed of misjudging inflation and being slow to act [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin criticized the Fed for failing the American people, suggesting that its bureaucratic approach has led to worse outcomes [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Recent data shows that inflation remains moderate, with consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months holding steady at 3%, alleviating earlier concerns [3]. - Importers had stockpiled goods before tariffs were implemented, which helped mitigate short-term price pressures [3]. - Over half of the surveyed companies reported a decline in profit margins due to tariffs, with over 80% expecting to raise prices in the next six months [3]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a split among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some advocating for preventive rate cuts [4]. - Powell indicated that if summer inflation data significantly underperforms expectations, he would consider lowering rates at an appropriate time [4]. - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in the upcoming July meeting, which could provoke a stronger reaction from the Trump administration [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the economic conditions are strong, with robust growth and employment, while inflationary pressures are easing [1] Economic Conditions - Economic growth is described as steady, suggesting a positive outlook for various sectors [1] - Employment levels are reported to be stable, indicating a healthy job market [1] Inflation Trends - Inflationary pressures are noted to be alleviating, which could impact monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. immigration policies and budget deficits are contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, highlights the impact of immigration policies on the economy [1] - The discussion includes how budget deficits are influencing inflation rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, believes that tariffs exert inflationary pressure and will not be implemented all at once [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - The implementation of tariffs will be gradual rather than immediate [1]