东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞30日表示，昨日金价冲高回落，主因近期国际金价上行速度过快， 叠加市场严重超买，引发资金获利了结离场。此外，昨日美联储前任理事沃什被特朗普提名的概率飙 升，但由于沃什一向被市场视作鹰派，带动美元走强，对金价形成压制。 瞿瑞表示，往后看，短期内 地缘政治风险还位于高位，且美国政府将再次面临部分"停摆"的风险，市场避险情绪对金价仍有支撑。 不过，今日特朗普要公布新一任美联储主席提名。如果提名的是沃什，短期美元或将继续反弹，对金价 造成扰动。中长期来看，本轮金价的上涨已明显超越传统避险交易范畴，这也意味着市场对全球风险的 定价方式正在发生变化。其定价不再局限于单次冲突或危机，而是将地缘政治风险、美元信用风险、美 联储独立性风险、美国债务可持续风险等视为长期存在的结构性变量，形成持续的风险溢价。 展望 2026年，董希淼认为，黄金价格长期上涨逻辑并未发生改变。货币宽松大趋势仍在延续，市场预计美联 储将继续实施降息，美元利率下行将持续支撑黄金配置价值。此外，全球央行购金热潮未减，2022年以 来年均净购买量超1000吨，远超此前均值，成为黄金需求的稳定支柱。全球范围内，不确定性因素仍然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold, has come to a halt due to various factors, including the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, which is seen as supportive of the US dollar [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices fell below $5,000 per ounce, experiencing a significant drop of over $400 in a single day, marking a decline of nearly $600 from the recent historical high, with a daily drop exceeding 7% [1]. - The price of silver also faced a decline, briefly falling below $95 per ounce before a slight rebound [1]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Christopher Wong from OCBC Bank noted that the volatility in gold prices reflects a "boom and bust" narrative, indicating that while the news of Warsh's nomination triggered the sell-off, a correction was already anticipated [3]. - Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggested that both gold and silver were overbought, with gold's RSI reaching 90, the highest level in decades [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The attractiveness of gold is closely tied to its perception as a "safe-haven asset" and an "inflation hedge," particularly in light of rising government debt and uncertainties surrounding interest rates and inflation [4]. - The Trump administration's aggressive policies have heightened concerns about the US economy, leading to a trend of "selling America" among some investors [4]. Group 4: Investment Behavior - Investors are increasingly diversifying away from US dollar assets, viewing gold as a preferred option in their portfolios amid fears of economic instability [4]. - Simon Popple from Brookville Capital highlighted that the perception of US Treasury bonds as nearly risk-free has changed, prompting a more cautious approach to capital allocation [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The recent price movements in gold have sparked a buying frenzy among investors, driven by market trends and heightened interest in volatile assets [5]. - Chris Beauchamp from IG Group emphasized that despite gold's favorable investment attributes, its ability to preserve value is often overestimated, particularly in the short term [5][6].

核心要点 瑞士法郎被普遍视为避险资产，在地缘政治或宏观经济存在不确定性时往往会升值。 瑞士央行行长上周向美国消费者新闻与商业频道表示，瑞郎对美元的强劲走势 "令瑞士央行的货币政策 制定工作变得更为复杂"。 瑞士正徘徊在通缩和负利率区间的边缘，央行的政策操作空间受到严重制约。 瑞士格劳宾登州达沃斯 市，冬日里的阿尔瓦纽高山村落，白雪掩映着传统民居与教堂 2026 年开年，避险资产表现亮眼。受全球普遍的不确定性影响，黄金、白银价格创下历史新高，瑞士 法郎汇率也攀升至十年高位。 但在瑞士，政策制定者们正忧心忡忡地关注着这一局面。 受美国贸易政策反复无常、美联储独立性引发质疑，以及美国可能对格陵兰、拉美和中东地区采取军事 干预等因素推动，瑞郎今年对美元汇率已上涨 3.5%。 而 2025 年，瑞郎对美元的涨幅就已达 12.7%。本周二，瑞郎对美元汇率触及 11 年高位，尽管周三早间 涨幅有所收窄，但仍在该高位附近徘徊。 "地缘政治局势的进一步升级，意味着更多的不确定性。" 上周，在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛间隙，瑞 士央行行长马丁・施勒格尔向美国消费者新闻与商业频道的卡伦・曹表示。 "这对瑞郎和瑞士都并非好事，因为瑞郎是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after record highs, a rebound in the US dollar, and speculation regarding Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which could signal a shift in monetary policy [1][3][10]. Price Movements - On January 30, gold prices fell over 6%, reaching a low of $5051 per ounce, while silver prices dropped over 10%, hitting a low of $103 per ounce [2][9]. - As of the latest reports, gold was trading at $5099.92 per ounce, down 5.16%, and silver at $104.19 per ounce, down 10.08% [2][9]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the decline in precious metals is a result of profit-taking after significant price increases, with the market reacting to the potential appointment of a more hawkish Federal Reserve Chairman [3][10]. - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could rise to between $8000 and $8500 per ounce in the coming years, driven by retail investors seeking gold as a hedge against stock market declines [2][9]. Future Price Predictions - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $5000 to $6200 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected demand due to increased investment [1][12]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing investment demand [12]. Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach a record high of 5002 tons in 2025, with significant contributions from investment demand and gold ETFs [6][13]. - Despite a decline in gold jewelry demand by 18% in volume, the value of gold jewelry consumption is projected to increase by 18% to $1720 billion, indicating sustained consumer interest [13].

Group 1: Market Reactions - The US dollar strengthened after Congress reached an agreement to fund the government through the end of the year, easing concerns about a potential government shutdown, which led to some traders selling gold [2] - Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at 112.43, down 2.89%, as sellers entered the market following recent gains [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Ongoing concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for lower interest rates are capping the dollar's gains, with investors awaiting the announcement of a new Fed chair and the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Gold - US geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's tariff threats and military posturing in the Middle East, are providing support for gold prices, limiting their losses [4][5] - The unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine adds to market uncertainty, as Ukraine rejected Russia's demands, keeping the situation tense [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold sector is experiencing fluctuations, with notable performances from specific companies and an increase in ETF fund inflows, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Hunan Gold leading at a 9.99% increase, followed by China Gold at 7.85% and Caibai Co. at 3.04% [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF Fund (159322) is currently priced at 2.27 yuan, with a total fund size reaching 399 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 147 million yuan, totaling 240 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of approximately 60 million yuan [1]. - The current strength in precious metals is primarily driven by a weak US dollar and escalating regional political risks, including tensions between Israel and Iran, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, as of December 31, 2025, include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold, collectively accounting for 63.58% of the index [2].

瑞银全球研究部分析师乔妮.特维斯近日发布的最新报告指出，尽管黄金短期内面临价格承压的风险， 但从长期来看，贵金属市场仍有良好的前景，值得投资者保持关注。 特维斯在报告中分析道，黄金价格在近期受到多个因素的影响，尤其是对美联储独立性的担忧、全球地 缘政治紧张局势的加剧，以及各国政治不确定性因素的持续存在，正在为贵金属价格提供支撑。这些因 素为黄金的中长期表现提供了支持，尤其是在全球经济和政治风险不断上升的背景下，黄金作为避险资 产的需求逐渐增加。 对于黄金的长期前景，特维斯则持更加乐观的态度。她认为，全球金融体系的不确定性和对未来经济走 势的担忧将继续推动黄金需求增长。尤其是在美联储政策变动和国际政治风险不断加剧的情况下，黄金 作为避险资产的优势将更为显著。因此，尽管短期内面临一定风险，但从长期来看，黄金价格仍具有较 大的上行空间。 特维斯还指出，虽然黄金市场存在一定的不确定性，但从历史数据来看，贵金属市场往往在政治和经济 风险上升时表现强劲。因此，尽管金价的短期波动可能会增加投资者的风险，但在全球宏观经济形势复 杂的情况下，黄金仍然是资产配置中值得长期持有的一项重要资产。 总体而言，瑞银全球研究部建议，尽管短 ...

2026年1月30日，黄金市场在周四美盘时段上演了惊心动魄的"过山车"行情。现货黄金在创下历史新高 后，短时间内遭遇巨量抛单，金价在30分钟内暴跌约450美元，一度触及5104美元。这一极端波动是投 机情绪过载、美联储政策约束与保证金上调共同作用的结果。尽管美联储维持3.5%-3.75%的利率水平且 鲍威尔暗示未来可能降息，但市场逐渐意识到当前实际利率依然偏高，5600美元附近的避险溢价已严重 脱离基本面，高位修正成为必然。 进入后市，市场焦点将转向美国贸易差额、工厂订单及初请失业金人数等核心数据。若数据偏强，美元 或迎来反弹；若表现疲软，黄金仍不排除再次测试高位的可能。 各类资产行情与基本面分析 1. 美股市场 指数表现 个股焦点 苹果 (AAPL)： 报 258.30 美元，微跌 0.16%。在大型科技股普跌的背景下，苹果表现相对抗跌， 股价在 250 美元上方维持高位盘整。 2. 外汇市场 3. 贵金属与大宗商品 贵金属 美元指数 (DXY)： 报 96.163。日内下跌 0.10%。美元走势持续疲软，尽管美联储态度偏中性，但 由于其他避险资产抢夺流动性，美元在 96 关口上方承压。 美元/日元 (US ...

周五（1月30日）亚洲时段，现货黄金延续下跌，一度逼近5100美元一线，虽受获利了结和短期担忧缓 解影响，黄金价格回落修正，但地缘政治僵局、经济政策预期以及机构配置需求共同构筑了坚实的支撑 基础。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 这些事件共同强化了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，吸引投资者在低位买入，推动金价快速收复跌幅。 瑞银集团维持黄金看涨立场，将今年前三季度黄金价格预期上调至6200美元/盎司，到2026年底预计回 落至5900美元/盎司。该机构指出，上行情景下金价可能达到7200美元，下行情景则为4600美元，这反 映出对经济不确定性的持续关注。 芝加哥商品交易所(CME)当地时间29日发布通知，对部分黄金、铝期货合约的保证金(Outright Rates)进 行调整。文件显示，黄金合约的新保证金比例高于此前水平，约为名义价值的6%。新标准将于当地时 间1月30日收盘后生效。 【技术分析】 短线4小时图中来看，布林带开口，KDJ指标死叉放量，MACD快线处于慢线上方但红色能量柱逐渐收 敛。小时图中来看，布林带缩口，价格即将选择新的方向，KDJ指标死叉放量，MACD快线处于慢线下 方且绿色能量 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 亚洲投资者正以创纪录的资金规模涌入黄金交易所交易基金（ETF），这一狂热现象引发部分市场人士 警觉，质疑黄金本轮涨势是否已接近尾声。 一些专注于白银的亚洲ETF也正迎来月度资金流入纪录。韩国上市的三星KODEX白银期货专项资产 ETF（Samsung KODEX Silver Futures Special Asset ETF）在一月份获得了2.316亿美元的净流入，同样 将创下纪录。 需求狂热的另一个迹象是，中国唯一的纯白银基金——国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）在大量 资金流入导致其基金净值较底层资产出现高溢价后，于周三暂停申购，并于周五暂停交易。 根据彭博行业研究的分析，资产管理公司计划通过推出新产品来应对市场对黄金ETF日益增长的需求。 分析师Rebecca Sin和Michelle Leung在研究报告中写道："ETF发行商可能会通过推出更多与黄金相关的 基金来满足市场对避险资产的需求。香港作为黄金交易中心，正寻求巩固其地位，本周就有两只新基金 上市，其提供的工具范围广泛，从低成本实物追踪到杠杆期货及矿业股E ...