避险资产

Search documents
贺博生:6.9黄金原油今日行情价格涨跌趋势分析及周一多空操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 23:43
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $3316, having previously peaked at $3403, a four-week high, before retreating due to eased trade tensions between the US and China [1] - Silver prices have surpassed $35, reaching a 13-year high, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The market is focused on upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 17-18 to gauge short-term gold price movements [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold is in a consolidation phase with a narrowing Bollinger Band, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [3] - The MACD shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is around 55, suggesting intense market competition [3] - Key support is identified at $3300, with resistance levels at $3335-$3345 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices are stable around $65 per barrel, marking the first weekly rebound since mid-May, while WTI is near $63 [4] - The market's fear of panic selling has decreased as macroeconomic uncertainties ease, but the underlying support for oil prices remains fragile [4] - Future oil price trends will depend on OPEC+'s production decisions and market expectations of oversupply by year-end [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential bearish flag pattern forming after hitting a low of $55.20 [5] - Short-term movements indicate a consolidation phase, with expectations of testing lower support levels around $63-$62 [5] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $66-$67 and support at $63-$62 [5]
大宗商品“冰火两重天”,原油黄金价格飙升,部分农产品持续承压丨期货周报
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-06-08 12:04
交易行情热点 热点一:央行连续7个月增持黄金,释放什么信号? 近期,黄金价格开启高位震荡行情,COMEX黄金周涨幅达-1.31%,收3331.0美元/盎司;伦敦金周涨幅 达-1.26%,收3309.7200美元/盎司。 21世纪经济报道记者 翁榕涛 实习生 赖桂筠 广州报道 周内(6月2日至6月6日),黄金价格高位震荡,贵金属表现强势,黑色系板块和集运欧线领跌,原油领 涨,而部分农产品受供需格局变化影响持续承压。这种"冰火两重天"的市场表现,折射出当前全球经济 复苏步伐不一、地缘政治因素扰动以及国内产业政策调整等多重复杂因素的交织影响。 就国内期货市场具体来看,能源化工板块,燃油周下跌0.10%、原油上涨1.71%、碳酸锂上涨0.23%;黑 色系板块,焦炭周下跌1.44%、焦煤下跌0.13%、铁矿石下跌0.56%;基本金属板块,沪金周下跌 1.09%、沪锌下跌0.38%、沪银上涨0.62%;农产品板块,生猪周下跌0.15%、棕榈油上涨0.07%、豆粕上 涨0.60%;航运板块,集运欧线周下跌4.35%。 花旗集团近期将黄金价格短期内的预测重新上调至每盎司3500美元,该机构表示,其核心逻辑在于美国 政府关税政 ...
金银“分道扬镳”:白银狂飙超9%,黄金回调
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-06-08 03:04
央行增持黄金也受关注,中国5月末黄金储备环比增加6万盎司,为连续第7个月增持。然而,深圳水贝黄金珠宝市 场多位从业者表示,目前下游出货量未见显著增长,金价仍处高位,新款产品不多,从业者较为谨慎。 【环球网财经综合报道】美东时间6月6日,现货黄金价格下跌超1.2%,收报3309.47美元/盎司;6月7日,国内部 分品牌金饰金价重回每克1000元之下。不过,白银价格近期持续走高,本周现货白银价格累计上涨超9%,一度站 上36美元/盎司,为2012年2月以来首次,涨幅远超本周累计上涨约0.6%的现货黄金。 市场公开信息显示,美国银行预计到今年年底或2026年初,黄金价格将达每盎司4000美元,白银价格将达每盎司 40美元;花旗集团将黄金价格短期预测上调至每盎司3500美元,理由是美国关税政策升级及地缘政治风险加剧推 动避险资产走强。(陈十一) 分析人士指出,金银分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动。近期金银价格比一度升至1 比100,远高于历史均值,暗示白银或被低估、黄金或被高估。且白银市场规模小,资金流入易引发更大波动。此 外,白银更受益于工业需求提振,市场担心贸易保护措施推升其避险和替代性需 ...
贵金属:从原子到宇宙的 6 种稀缺性密码
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 17:32
Core Insights - Precious metals have been a symbol of wealth and power throughout history, and they play a crucial role in various modern industries, including technology, healthcare, and electronics [1] Group 1: Characteristics of Precious Metals - Precious metals are defined as rare, high-density metals with significant economic value, including Ruthenium (Ru), Rhodium (Rh), Palladium (Pd), Osmium (Os), Iridium (Ir), Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), and Gold (Au) [1] - The abundance of these metals in the Earth's crust is extremely low, with concentrations measured in grams per ton: Silver 0.1, Palladium 0.01, Gold and Platinum 0.005, and Rhodium, Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium 0.001 [1] - Silver excels in electrical and thermal conductivity, while Gold ranks third, and Platinum group metals are known for their thermal stability in electronic applications [3] - Gold and Silver possess exceptional malleability, with 1 gram of Gold capable of being drawn into a wire measuring 3420 meters [3] Group 2: Applications of Precious Metals - Precious metals are ideal for jewelry due to their aesthetic qualities, with Silver reflecting white light most effectively and Gold reflecting infrared light strongly [4] - The ability of precious metals to absorb gases like oxygen and hydrogen makes them valuable in catalytic reactions and gas purification processes [6] - Precious metals exhibit high corrosion resistance, with Iridium being the most resistant, making them suitable for use in harsh chemical environments [7] - Palladium catalysts can enhance organic reaction rates by up to 1 million times, playing a vital role in automotive emissions control and petroleum refining [9] Group 3: Industry Impact - In the electronics industry, Gold, Silver, and Platinum are used for their excellent conductivity and stability, with Gold ensuring stable electronic signal transmission [13] - Platinum and Palladium are increasingly in demand for automotive catalytic converters due to stricter environmental regulations [14] - In aerospace, precious metals are used in high-temperature alloys for critical engine components, capable of withstanding extreme conditions [15] - Precious metals are essential in the chemical industry for processes like nitric acid production and petroleum reforming, improving reaction efficiency and reducing costs [18] Group 4: Financial and Economic Role - Historically, Gold and Silver served as currency and continue to influence monetary value, with central banks holding significant Gold reserves to enhance currency credibility [19] - The precious metals market is vast, with Gold being the largest segment, and prices are influenced by various factors, including economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [21] - Platinum and Palladium prices are closely tied to the automotive industry, with demand driven by vehicle sales and environmental regulations [21] Group 5: Future Outlook - Precious metals are positioned as key players in future technological advancements and sustainable development, serving as catalysts in energy and life sciences [22]
金价波动引关注,黄金还能涨回来吗?
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-06-07 13:15
Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to mixed sentiments among investors, with some still optimistic about future price increases despite current declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 779.79 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% [1]. - Analysts from various institutions maintain a bullish outlook on gold, with the Gold Research Institute of Jinfafu stating that as long as prices do not fall below $3,200 per ounce, the overall trend remains upward [1]. - Factors influencing recent gold price volatility include macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and changes in U.S.-China trade relations [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, Wang Xinjie, noted that the easing of risk sentiment and adjustments in short-term gold positions have contributed to recent price fluctuations [2]. - Geopolitical issues, particularly the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing Middle Eastern tensions, have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - The recent constructive dialogue between U.S. and Chinese leaders has led to a decrease in risk aversion, impacting gold prices [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Wang Xinjie has adjusted the three-month gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce while maintaining a 12-month forecast of $3,500 per ounce [3]. - Key factors supporting gold's price increase include geopolitical risks, central bank gold reserves, and the currency aspect of gold as a hedge against the depreciating dollar due to rising U.S. debt levels [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections present buying opportunities for investors, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in gold investments [4]. - It is recommended that investors avoid over-concentration in gold investments, as it is a non-yielding asset, and to adopt a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing high prices [4].
洪灏又辞职了,任职华福国际CEO不足2个月
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 09:04
Group 1 - Renowned strategist Hong Hao has resigned as CEO of Huafu International (Hong Kong) Financial Holdings Limited to focus on independent research and hedge fund management, taking on the role of managing partner and CIO at Lianhua Asset Management [1] - Hong Hao has a notable background, having served as a partner and chief economist at Sire Group, head of research at CMB International, and chief global strategist at CICC, with experience in major international financial institutions [1] - Huafu International is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huafu Securities, having obtained multiple licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and is involved in wealth management, corporate financing, and asset management [2] Group 2 - Hong Hao's brief tenure as CEO of Huafu International lasted only two months, marking his return to a sell-side institution after three years [2] - He has gained attention for his views on market trends, notably his early identification of the "East Rising, West Falling" narrative, predicting a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets [2] - Hong Hao believes that the A-share market's performance has aligned with safe-haven assets like gold and silver since September last year, with increased liquidity in the Hong Kong market potentially leading to a peak in the second half of the year [3]
【财经分析】我国外汇储备规模连续五个月上升 金价走势趋弱央行继续增持黄金
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 08:43
新华财经北京6月7日电 国家外汇管理局7日公布的数据显示,截至5月末,我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元,较4月末上升36亿美元,升幅为0.11%;同期黄 金储备报7383万盎司,为连续第七个月环比多增。 业内人士表示,5月外储规模继续多增但增幅收窄,主要反映了当月美元指数跌幅收窄,全球金融资产价格涨跌互现,汇率和资产价格变动对外储的估值影 响几乎正负相抵。而在金价走势偏弱的大背景下,人民银行继续增持黄金也符合预期。 | 项目 Item | 2025.01 | | 2025.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 亿美元 | ZSDR | 亿美元 | | | 100million | 100million | 100million | | | USD | SDR | USD | | 1. 外汇储备 Foreign currency reserves | 32090.36 | 24612.47 | 32272.24 | | 2. 基金组织储备头寸 IMF reserve position | 100.48 | 77.07 | 100.87 | | 3. 特别提款权 SDRs | 52 ...
央行出手,继续增持!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 03:40
【导读】5月外汇储备规模环比上升0.11%,央行连续7个月增持黄金 与此同时,央行公布数据显示,中国5月末黄金储备为7383万盎司,环比增加6万盎司,为连续第7个月增持黄金。 外汇储备规模环比上升0.11% 继续稳定在3.2万亿美元以上 国家外汇管理局统计数据显示,截至2025年5月末,我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元,较4月末上升36亿美元,升幅为0.11%。 中国基金报记者 晨曦 最新重磅数据来了! 6月7日,国家外汇管理局公布2025年5月末外汇储备规模数据。截至2025年5月末,我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元,较4月末上升36亿美元,升幅为 0.11%。 央行连续7个月增持黄金 6月7日,央行公布的数据显示,中国5月末黄金储备报7383万盎司,环比增加6万盎司。继去年11月重启增持后 ,这已是央行连续第7个月增持黄金。 | 项目 Item | 2025.01 | | 2025.02 | | 2025.03 | | 2025.04 | | 2025.05 | | 2025.06 | 亿SDR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
美银Hartnett警告:狂热情绪接近临界点,全球股市逼近技术性“卖出”信号
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-06 13:20
Group 1 - Global stock markets are approaching a technical "sell" signal after reaching historical highs, with a warning from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett about the risk of a market collapse due to excessive investor enthusiasm [1][2] - Approximately 84% of national stock indices are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a threshold of 88% triggering preset sell conditions [2] - Year-to-date, global equity funds have attracted around $515 billion in inflows, potentially marking the second-highest record in history, while cash funds saw an influx of $94.8 billion in the past week, indicating a shift towards safer assets [2]
金价坐上“过山车”,有黄金主题基金连发11则高溢价提醒,还能追涨吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 12:59
智通财经记者 | 杜萌 吕凡 "抢到消费券,排队买黄金",在上海的豫园商圈,抢到"璀璨金喜大豫园"消费券的年轻人正大排长龙,只为现场买黄金。 "最高满10000减1000元,相当于打九折,简直太划算了"。早晨六点就在中国黄金上海旗舰店排队的小文告诉智通财经记者,从今年年初开始,她就在陆续 购置黄金,"小跌小买,大跌大买",现在已经差不多购置了十几克的金饰品了。 今年以来,作为避险资产金价呈现"过山车"行情。年初至5月12日,国际地缘风险升温导致金价狂飙,伦敦金从2980.08美元/盎司飙升至3423.77美元/盎司, 国内金价同步涨至825.80元/克。5月12日以后,随着全球贸易摩擦的缓和,金价如高台跳水般急速"下跌",COMEX盘中一度跌至3211.2美元/盎司。 从黄金ETF的区间资金流入来看,和国际金价的走势呈现正相关。国际金价的"暴走行情"是资金入场的直接导火索。ETF凭借交易便捷、实时跟踪金价的特 性,成为散户"追涨"首选。 Wind数据显示,从4月9日至5月12日,华安黄金ETF(518880.SH)区间净流入达131.28亿元,易方达黄金ETF(159934.SZ)净流入71.15亿元,博时黄 ...