Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 一篇文章，带你终极复盘2025文华商品指数，拆解每一波行情背后的驱动密码。 商品指数复盘 图片来源：文华财经、一德期货 ① 1月10日： 美国财政部宣布了一项针对俄罗斯能源领域的重大制裁，包括俄罗斯的两个油气公司和180多艘运输俄罗斯石油的船只，市场断供 担忧急剧升温，推动WTI上冲至80.04美元/桶的高位。 ② 1月20日： 特朗普宣布就职，一上任就开启了关税加征，先是对加拿大和墨西哥，随后是中国，接着就是全面加征，这其中最主要的针对目 标是中国，部分商品关税甚至加征至245%令人咋舌，关税政策给宏观经济蒙上了一层挥之不去的阴霾，航运相关燃料受累下跌。 文 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 商品市场的故事，从来没有预告片。 2025收官在即，回顾这一年，原油因地缘剧烈波动；有色金属、航运燃料遭关税重锤；"反内卷" 政策更是以燎原之势引爆局部行情...... 文华商品指数的"关键推手"究竟是谁？它们是如何书写指数轨迹的？ ③ 4月初： 美国"对等关税"政策冲击全球经济预期，能化、有色分别以原油、铜为代表集体重挫：油价出现了年度内的至暗时刻，WTI最低跌至 5 ...

专题：第二十二届中国国际金融论坛 12月19日-20日，"第二十二届中国国际金融论坛"在上海举行，主题为：数字经济时代的智能金融生态 构建。海富通基金管理有限公司董事、总经理任志强出席并演讲。 任志强介绍到，海富通基金是一家中外合资公司，控股股东是国泰海通证券，外方股东是法国巴黎资产 管理，2025权益市场的发展非常好，市场信心不断恢复，信心和估值双提升，比年初预测的表现还要 好。具体原因，他指出一下几个因素： 第一，中国经济的韧性强，包括国内和国外的投资者。其中政策支持采非常有效，有助于解决资本市场 面临的根本性问题。比如说中长期资金入市提高上市分红，包括建立长期的资本市场的稳定机制等等各 个方面。 第二，企业盈利增速有可能比今年提高。"我们分析认为，2026年的整个企业增速有望比2025年提升。" 第三，据预测，美联储会继续降息，全球流动性会进一步宽松，这对全球资金流向中国市场也是有利 的。同时，国际投资者逐渐接受中国越来越强大的事实。 第四，从中国自身来讲，现在房地产步入平稳区间，财富配置上方向往权益去，权益市场越来越重要， 在资产配置的比例越来越高。 他表示，从去年开始我国采取一系列资本市场的措施，有 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-23，工业硅期货价格偏震荡走高，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（145）元/吨，变化（1.68）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓213776手，2025-12-22仓单 总数为9175手，较前一日变化156手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8 万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分）较上周减少1万 吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES DAILY REPORT Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on the coking coal main contract [2] Core Views - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract: low valuation, policy support, approaching restocking demand, tightening supply, and sentiment repair [3] - For the stock index futures, the cycle shows a pullback after reaching a high, but the decline is limited, and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips and not to chase the rise [5] - Gold shows signs of starting to rise again after a period of sideways consolidation, and it is advisable to try going long [10] - Iron ore is searching for a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [14] - Glass is expected to be weak in the short - term, with a bearish view on the daily - line level [16] - Methanol in the sales area is showing a strong market due to factors such as increased freight costs and growing demand [19] - Pulp demand is expected to improve overall, and an oscillating trend is predicted [22] Summary by Categories Coking Coal - Valuation has reached a low level, with a cumulative decline of over 20% in December, hitting a new low for the year. The current price is lower than the Mongolian coal import cost line, and the spot premium over the futures forms a safety cushion [3] - Six departments have issued a document to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and relevant policies are expected to improve the industry order and boost market expectations [3] - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 12% lower than in previous years. The pre - Spring Festival winter storage restocking window is approaching, which will create a phased demand impulse [3] - Some coal mines have limited production after completing their annual production tasks, and the winter Mongolian coal port clearance is easily affected by weather, leading to a narrowing expectation of import growth [3] - After the continuous outflow of short - selling funds, policy benefits have driven a sharp rebound in the market, and market sentiment has shifted from pessimism to repair, with sufficient technical rebound momentum [3] Stock Index Futures - The cycle shows a pullback after reaching a high, but the decline is limited, and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips and not to chase the rise [5] Gold - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows signs of starting to rise again, and it is advisable to try going long [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermenting. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still searching for a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak [14] - Technically, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [14] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and there has been another inventory reduction this week. The main driving forces are the supply - side clearance due to policy - end stimulus policies and anti - involution policies [17] - Technically, with consecutive negative daily - line closes, a bearish view is taken in the short - term [16] Methanol - Recently, freight costs have increased significantly, leading to higher arrival costs in the sales area. The demand has shown an increasing trend due to the stable 80% load of the newly built olefin project of Lianhong [19] - As the port methanol price continues to rise, the amount of port goods flowing back to Shandong has gradually decreased, and the market in the sales area is strong under multiple positive factors [19] Pulp - With the continuous boost of domestic demand by domestic policies, increased production cuts by overseas pulp mills, and the gradual clearance of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve overall [22] - An oscillating trend is predicted [22]

Group 1 - Citigroup Private Bank maintains an overweight rating on the Chinese market within the emerging markets sector, having reduced exposure to Asian emerging market stocks outside of China to optimize asset allocation [1] - Foreign institutions generally hold a positive outlook on Chinese stocks for 2026, with corporate profit improvement being the key driver for market growth [2] - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China Index that have raised earnings forecasts has increased by about 2 standard deviations since May 2025, marking the best performance since 2020 [2] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the overall A-share profit growth rate is expected to rise from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by nominal GDP growth, revenue increases, supportive policies, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [2] - Daniel Morris from BNP Paribas highlights that the greatest profit growth potential in China is concentrated in the technology sector, which is less affected by trade policies due to its revenue being more service-oriented [3] - There has been a significant inflow of global investment into Chinese assets, with $83.1 billion in net inflows into ETFs since 2025, indicating a strong interest from foreign capital in the Chinese market [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China anticipates that more foreign capital will return to the Chinese market in 2026, with passive foreign funds already showing significant inflows while active funds are expected to follow [4] - The current equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, suggesting potential for further valuation increases driven by macro policies, accelerated profit growth, and long-term capital inflows [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance economic quality and stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the chaotic competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [5][6]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Recommendations - To address the "involution," policies should focus on both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion, which benefits both the present and the long term [6][11]. - Supply-side measures include production adjustment, elimination of backward production capacity, and improving product quality to restore prices and enhance competitiveness [6][11]. - Demand-side strategies should promote resident service consumption through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements to unleash consumption potential, while guiding employment from manufacturing to services [6][11]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have consistently addressed the need to combat "involutionary" competition, with significant policy decisions made to regulate local government and corporate behaviors [7][8]. - The 2025 government work report outlined specific actions to establish a unified national market and comprehensively address "involutionary" competition [8][11]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on both local governments and enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [14][16]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries, particularly in the mid- and downstream sectors, experiencing negative profit growth [16][19]. - The "involution" is more pronounced in mid- and downstream industries, where the competition has intensified, leading to a decline in profitability and increased cost pressures [19][21]. Group 5: Structural Issues and Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to break the cycle of "price-income-consumption" contraction, advocating for a shift from an investment-driven to an innovation-driven economy [20][42]. - The service sector is identified as a key area for absorbing employment and addressing structural unemployment, with significant potential for growth in service consumption [42][43]. - Policies should focus on enhancing service sector development, improving social security systems, and optimizing service industry regulations to stimulate demand and support economic transformation [37][42].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has adjusted the trading rules for polysilicon futures contracts, limiting the daily opening position for non-futures company members or clients to 200 lots starting December 25, 2025, due to significant price fluctuations in the polysilicon futures market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Since November 19, the price of the December polysilicon contract surged from approximately 53,130 yuan/ton to a peak of 62,200 yuan/ton on December 3, before settling at 59,100 yuan/ton on the delivery date of December 12, despite a significant divergence from the lower spot prices [3][15]. - The average spot price for N-type polysilicon on December 12 was 50,000 yuan/ton, indicating an 18% price gap between the delivery price and the spot price, which is considered unusually large [4][16]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The domestic polysilicon industry has an annual nominal production capacity exceeding 3.2 million tons, while domestic demand is only 1.3 million tons, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that has caused polysilicon prices to drop nearly 70% since the beginning of 2023 [5][17]. - Despite the overall decline, polysilicon futures prices began to rise from 31,000 yuan/ton in late June to around 55,000 yuan/ton, driven by various market speculations regarding production limits and industry consolidation [5][17]. Delivery Specifications - The GFEX has established a dual delivery system for polysilicon futures, allowing both benchmark and alternative delivery products, with 67% of industry products meeting the benchmark quality standards [6][19]. - Currently, there are 11 active polysilicon producers in the market, with GFEX having approved 10 registered brands, covering over 70% of the industry's production capacity [8][20]. Recent Market Trends - From December 8 to December 17, the main polysilicon contract price increased from 52,780 yuan/ton to 61,985 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of over 17% in just a few days [8][20]. - Analysts suggest that the establishment of polysilicon platform companies and seasonal supply constraints are contributing to improved supply-demand dynamics, which may positively influence prices [9][21]. Regulatory Measures - To mitigate price volatility, GFEX implemented position limits and increased the number of delivery brands in early December [9][11]. - As of December 19, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts had dropped to 3,640 lots (10,920 tons), indicating a low supply level that has led to futures prices trading at a premium over spot prices [9][21]. Future Outlook - The market is advised to monitor the potential decline in polysilicon demand, particularly as the dry season approaches and production capacity in the southwestern region decreases [12][25]. - Overall, while the demand for polysilicon is expected to marginally decline, the anticipated effects of regulatory policies may still support a relatively strong price trend in the short term [12][25].

南华期货焦煤焦炭2026年度展望 ——终端需求弹性缺失下的价格僵局 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月23日 第一章 观点概要 【核心观点】展望2026年，国内煤焦市场将继续在"能源保供稳价"的基础上，通过"环保限产"、"查超产"、"控 能耗"等行政手段约束过量供应、稳定价格预期，并为焦煤价格提供相对稳固的底部支撑，预计全年国内焦煤 产量将同比小幅收紧（-0.5%）。此外，焦煤进口规模有望进一步扩张，预计全年净进口量较今年增加 （+3.3%）。在总量扩张的同时，焦煤进口结构也将面临调整，具体表现为来自蒙古、俄罗斯、加拿大的焦 煤进口增加，美国煤进口减少，澳煤份额则维持相对稳定。投资者需重点关注蒙煤进口规模扩大对国内焦煤 供需结构的冲击，以及澳煤作为海运市场的关键定价基准，其对国内焦煤价格反弹空间的估值约束。焦炭方 面，我们认为2026年焦化行业的利润修复面临双重制约。一方面，钢材出口监管趋严与"反内卷"政策共同作 用，或将削弱我国钢材的国际价格优势，进而拖累短期出口增速；另一方面，国内房地产、基建等传统内需 领域难有起色，黑色终端需求 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs holds an optimistic view on the Chinese stock market, citing supportive policies and structural changes such as AI, globalization, consumption upgrades, and "anti-involution" policies as potential upward drivers for the market [1] - The Chinese stock market has achieved positive returns for two consecutive years, with A-shares and H-shares expected to rise by 16% and 29% respectively by 2025, primarily driven by valuation recovery [1] - By the end of 2027, the Chinese stock market is projected to have an additional 38% upside, with the driving factors shifting towards profit growth [1] Group 2 - Strong performance in service consumption and new consumer sectors, such as entertainment and specialty retail, has outpaced traditional consumer stocks in terms of profit growth and stock returns [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profit margins in industries facing overcapacity, such as solar energy and cement, through supply-side structural reforms and industry consolidation [2] - Domestic and foreign investment interest in the Chinese market is increasing, with record inflows from southbound funds and heightened participation from institutional investors and individual investors [2] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market offers diversification value for global investors, as it has a low correlation with US stocks and is deeply undervalued, making it a good choice for risk diversification [2] - The policy environment has established a solid foundation against downside risks, with macroeconomic and stock market policies effectively supporting growth and compressing equity risk premiums [2]