总部位于英国伦敦的能源研究所（Energy Institute）最新发布的年度世界能源统计报告显示，去年全球 能源行业的二氧化碳排放量连续第四年创下历史新高。报告显示，去年是有记录以来最热的一年，全球 气温首次比工业化前时代高出1.5摄氏度，即使可再生能源达到历史新高，化石燃料的使用量仍持续上 升。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall outlook for the electric power equipment and new energy sectors remains positive, driven by domestic and international demand synergy, with expectations for continued growth in lithium batteries, wind power, energy storage, and electric power equipment [1][2]. New Energy and Electric Power Equipment - The renewable energy generation capacity in China is expected to reach a historical high in 2024, accounting for over 60% of the global new renewable energy capacity additions, with an anticipated increase of over 300 million kilowatts in wind and solar power installations this year [1]. - By 2024, cumulative wind power capacity in China is projected to reach 520 million kilowatts, while cumulative solar power capacity is expected to hit 890 million kilowatts, marking significant project completions in high-altitude solar and "fishing-light complementary" projects [1]. Lithium Battery Sector - The domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles continue to show high growth, with a stable profitability outlook for the lithium battery sector, indicating long-term investment opportunities [2]. - The lithium battery industry has experienced a downward adjustment over the past two years, with profitability at historical lows by the end of 2024. However, demand growth is expected to reach 25% to 30% in 2025, driven by increased penetration of new energy vehicles and rising demand in emerging markets [2]. Wind Power Industry - The domestic offshore wind power installation is expected to see high demand from 2025 to 2026, with significant growth anticipated in overseas offshore wind installations in 2026 [2]. - As of early 2023, new offshore wind projects in China have added approximately 5.65 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, indicating a robust market for offshore wind power [2]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage industry is benefiting from declining costs and improved business models, leading to enhanced economic viability at the end-user level, with global demand expected to continue explosive growth in 2024 [3]. - The sector is transitioning from a low penetration phase to a rapid growth phase, with expectations for high growth in both domestic and overseas markets [3]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with a clear bottoming out in both market sentiment and fundamentals, and potential acceleration in industry clearing due to policy support or technological advancements, with a key turning point to be observed by the end of 2025 [3]. Electric Power Equipment Industry - Despite short-term volatility influenced by export trade conditions, the overall investment in China's power grid remains on an upward trend, with downstream demand showing certainty, presenting opportunities in the digitalization of the electric power sector [3].

2025 年 06 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单再次去化，关注上方空间 多晶硅：逢高空配思路为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） Si2509成交量（手） | 7,485 612,486 | 65 319,554 | 125 174,579 | -395 404,089 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 293,427 | -9,692 | -25,466 | 109,737 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 31,085 | 470 | -2,925 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 171,969 | 83,519 | 126,164 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 72,286 | -5,897 | 28 ...

Core Viewpoint - Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co., Ltd. maintains a stable long-term credit rating of AA- for its main entity and the "Jiuzhou Convertible Bond 2" [1][4] Company Overview - The company specializes in intelligent equipment manufacturing, renewable energy, and comprehensive smart energy businesses [4][14] - As of March 2025, the company has a total asset of 69.85 billion yuan and equity of 24.72 billion yuan [14] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 14.81 billion yuan, but incurred a net loss of 4.97 billion yuan due to significant impairment losses on biomass fixed assets [6][14] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was negative at -0.33 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating liquidity challenges [13][14] Business Growth - The company’s renewable energy installed capacity increased to 704.60 MW by the end of 2024, with a total of 834.75 MW including controlled and affiliated power stations [17][21] - The electrical and related equipment business saw a significant revenue increase of 40.72% in 2024 due to a surge in order volume [4][6] Risks and Challenges - Non-operating losses significantly impacted operating profits, with a total impairment loss of 4.57 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10] - The company faces high asset restriction ratios, with restricted assets amounting to 34.59 billion yuan, representing 49.35% of total assets [6][10] Industry Analysis - The renewable energy sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with investments in clean energy surpassing traditional coal-fired power generation for the first time [16] - The electricity supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in 2025, with ongoing pressures from high fuel prices affecting thermal power generation [16][18] Future Outlook - If the company successfully completes its ongoing power station projects and secures funding for future developments, its operational performance may improve [5][9] - The successful conversion of "Jiuzhou Convertible Bond 2" could enhance the company's capital strength and reduce debt burden [5][9]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.3. Multiple ETFs in the electric power equipment sector saw significant gains, including the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830.SH) up by 4.71%, Battery 50 ETF (159796.SZ) up by 4.12%, and Battery ETF (561910.SH) up by 4.01. In contrast, several ETFs in the non-ferrous metals sector declined, with the Gold Stocks ETF (517400.SH) down by 1.47% [1][3][6] - Wanlian Securities noted that in the context of energy transition, global renewable energy installations are rapidly increasing, coupled with the upgrade of grid equipment, leading to stable growth in global grid construction investment. China's electric power equipment products possess technological and cost advantages, making them competitive, with the export of transformers, electric meters, switches, and cables expected to benefit continuously [1] New ETF Launches - The first batch of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 580 ETF has been reported, with Huaxia Fund and E Fund simultaneously applying for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 580 ETF and its linked fund. The Shanghai 580 Index, which focuses on small-cap stocks, was just released in mid-June, and the recently optimized Shanghai 380 Index has also attracted interest from public funds [2] Market Performance Overview - On June 24, the three major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Index closing at 3420.57 points, the Shenzhen Component at 10217.63 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2064.13 points. The North Stock 50 and ChiNext Index ranked high in daily performance, with daily increases of 3.65% and 2.3%, respectively [3] Sector Performance - In the performance of various sectors, electric power equipment, non-bank financials, and retail trade ranked at the top, with daily increases of 2.85%, 2.68%, and 2.64%, respectively. In contrast, the oil and petrochemical, coal, and defense sectors lagged behind, with daily changes of -2.1%, -0.22%, and 0.13% [6] ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs showed that cross-border ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 1.94%, while commodity ETFs had the worst performance with an average decrease of -1.21% [8] - The top five performing ETFs today included the Kexin New Energy ETF (588960.SH) with a return of 9.44%, followed by the Robot 50 ETF (159559.SZ) at 4.79%, and the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830.SH) at 4.71% [10] Trading Volume of Different ETF Categories - The top three ETFs by trading volume were the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with a trading volume of 4.815 billion, Kexin 50 ETF (588000.SH) at 3.393 billion, and A500 ETF (512050.SH) at 3.345 billion [12][13]

今年是中欧建交50周年。长期以来，德国作为欧盟核心大国，在中欧关系中发挥着"领头羊"与"稳定 器"作用。中德务实合作是中欧互利共赢的生动缩影，良好的中德关系为中欧关系长远发展提供重要动 力。 高水平、战略性是中德关系的显著特征。建交半个多世纪来，两国坚持互尊互信、平等相待的相处之 道，始终走互利互惠、共赢发展的合作之路，成长为携手并进、彼此成就的好伙伴，以高水平合作推动 双边关系持续健康发展。2014年，习近平主席首次对德国进行国事访问，同德国领导人共同擘画双边关 系新蓝图，将两国关系提升为全方位战略伙伴关系。今年5月，习近平主席应约同德国总理默茨通电 话，就中德关系发展作出战略引领、达成重要共识。双方应认真落实两国领导人通话成果，坚持伙伴定 位，深化战略沟通，增强关系韧性，推动中德全方位战略伙伴关系向更高层次、更宽领域持续迈进。 同发展、谋共赢是中德合作的鲜明底色。两国经济互补、产业互嵌、利益互融，务实合作始终是双边关 系的"压舱石"。中德双边贸易额从建交之初的不足3亿美元跃升至现今的2000多亿美元。双方建立起各 层级80多个对话合作机制、百余对友好省州（市）关系，两国各领域合作亮点纷呈。随着中国高质量发 ...

6月24日至26日，世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（又称"夏季达沃斯论坛"）将在天津举办。本届 会议汇聚来自90多个国家和地区的政府、企业、媒体机构、学术界以及国际组织的约1800名嘉宾。"在 中国举办夏季达沃斯论坛凸显了亚洲作为全球增长引擎的角色。预计2025年亚洲将推动全球近60%的经 济增长，中国将贡献其中的一半。"世界经济论坛执行董事兼大中华区主席梁锦慧日前在接受本报记者 专访时表示。 本届夏季达沃斯论坛的主题为"新时代企业家精神"，与会嘉宾将围绕"解读全球经济""中国展望""剧变 中的产业""投资人类与地球""新能源与材料"五大方向进行探讨。 "中国和亚洲对全球经济增长、贸易投资以及技术创新作出重要贡献，本届论坛也将重点关注中国和亚 洲。"梁锦慧表示，本届论坛有多场会议聚焦中国主题，内容涵盖经济发展、创新创造、制造业、能源 转型、人工智能等方面。"我们希望共同探讨中国独特的人工智能发展路径，帮助各方了解中国创新生 态系统以及通过技术驱动转型所取得的成果，介绍高质量共建'一带一路'项目的最新进展和未来展 望。" 自1979年以来，世界经济论坛与中国一直保持良好合作关系，见证了中国改革开放40多年来的 ...

Core Insights - China's photovoltaic (PV) power generation capacity has experienced rapid growth, with a cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.08 billion kilowatts, equivalent to approximately 48 Three Gorges dams, accounting for 30% of the country's total power generation capacity and nearly half of the global PV installed capacity [1][2] Group 1: Industry Growth - From January to May this year, China's newly installed grid-connected PV capacity reached nearly 200 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - The distributed PV generation capacity has quadrupled since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, exceeding 400 million kilowatts, contributing to energy transition and increasing income for the populace [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Chinese companies lead the world in energy consumption and cost control in the high-purity silicon manufacturing segment, achieving the lowest levels globally [2] - In the silicon wafer processing segment, China has achieved a market share of over 95% for large-sized, thin silicon wafers, specifically 182mm and 210mm sizes [2] - The average conversion efficiency of P-type solar cells in China has surpassed 23.5%, while mainstream N-type cells have achieved production efficiencies exceeding 25%, with leading performance in yield and cost control [2] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The scale and cluster development of the PV industry have driven collaborative upgrades across the upstream and downstream sectors, with over 1 million enterprises in the industry chain and an annual output value exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - The price of PV modules has decreased by over 90% in the past decade, significantly supporting the global adoption of renewable energy [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polysilicon is to continue underweighting [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions a US Senate proposal to cancel solar and wind energy tax credits by 2028 and extend incentives for other energy sources [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract had a closing price of 7,390 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 80 yuan compared to T - 1. The PS2507 contract for polysilicon had a closing price of 31,700 yuan/ton, down 1,020 yuan from T - 1. Trading volumes and open interests also showed various changes [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon had different spot - to - futures spreads, with the industrial silicon spot showing different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and the polysilicon - N type re - feed material having a spot premium of +2800 yuan/ton against N - type re - feed [1] - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as related downstream products in the photovoltaic industry, showed different degrees of decline over different time periods. For example, the price of polysilicon - N type re - feed material dropped from 37,500 yuan/ton a month ago to 34,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Profits**: Silicon factories and related enterprises in different industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed losses, and the profit margins continued to decline or remained at a low level [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventories, including social, enterprise, and futures warehouse inventories, decreased to some extent, while the polysilicon factory inventory decreased slightly compared to a week ago but increased compared to a month ago [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon production, such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., also showed different degrees of decline [1] Macro and Industry News - The US Senate panel proposed to completely cancel solar and wind energy tax credits by 2028 and extend incentives for hydropower, nuclear, and geothermal energy to 2036. The proposal aims to cancel thousands of billions of dollars in clean - energy subsidies, considering them "unnecessary" [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook for polysilicon [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 2.51% and the public utility index down 1.13%. The power sector specifically saw a 1.31% drop, while the gas sector increased by 0.69% [6][31] - As of June 20, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal has dropped to 620 CNY/ton, marking a relative low since 2022. The performance of thermal power companies varies significantly based on their geographic location and demand for electricity [6][10] - The report highlights a shift in electricity generation, with thermal power generation increasing to 4614.6 billion kWh in May, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while hydropower generation decreased by 14.3% [10][21] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - In May, total electricity generation reached 7377.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with thermal power generation showing a recovery [10][21] - The overall electricity consumption in May was 8096 billion kWh, up 4.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry [21] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has seen a cumulative increase of 3.34% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [6][31] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with thermal power down 1.31% and nuclear power showing a slight increase of 0.15% [31][37] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remains low, with significant declines from previous highs [46] - It also monitors water reservoir levels, with the Three Gorges Reservoir showing a water level of 149.13 meters as of June 20, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [48] Industry Key Events - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at promoting renewable energy and improving energy efficiency, including financial support for renewable energy projects [78]