投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 黄金震荡，白银再创新高 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-08 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、国贸期货研究院 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周金银走势分化：黄金震荡，周线下跌；白银剧烈波动，再创新高，周线收 涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）日本央行12月加息担忧升温，市场情绪趋于谨 慎，同时美国周度申请失业金人数大幅回落缓和就业恶化风险、12月消费者信心指数 5个月以来首次回升以及市场对美联储明年的降息趋势偏谨慎，美债收益率创8周以来 最大周度涨幅，加上中美经贸双方牵头人举行视频通话等均一度压制金价；但美国9 月核心PCE意外下降，强化美联储12月降息预期，中国央行连续13个月增持黄金储备， 普京拒绝接受和平计划部分内容，美国债务规模持续攀升等，则对金价构成支撑，故 金价整体高位震荡。（2）白银方面，在12月降息预期仍较高和供需结构失衡下，银 价整体延续强势，伦敦现 ...

美元在近期的宏观预期调整中短线承压，而地缘不确定性的存在，使避险需求仍保持在相对稳健的水 平。在通胀仍高于目标区间的情况下，就业指标的持续降温强化了市场对宽松路径的理解。利率若下 调，将重新压低持有黄金的成本，使 XAU/USD 在高位区间的震荡结构更具韧性。 根据 CME FedWatch 的最新显示，投资者对本周降息 25 个基点的预计已升至约 87%–90%。摩根士丹利 也重新回到此前的判断，认为联储有望在 12 月 9—10 日会议后将利率下调至 3.75%–4.00% 区间。近期 两周连续走弱的就业指标，使"提前稳增长"的思路更易获得市场接受。尽管密歇根消费者信心指数小幅 反弹至 53.3，但并未改变投资者对经济动能偏弱的整体认知。 在央行持续买金的大环境下，中国央行公布的最新储备数据成为金价另一项重要支撑。11 月新增 3 万 盎司，使官方黄金储备增至 7412 万盎司，实现连续 13 个月增长。同月外汇储备规模亦小幅上行至 3.346 万亿美元。持续的增持行为，在美元震荡偏弱的大背景中，被市场视作稳定资产配置的信号，也 为黄金中长期走势提供结构性支撑。 虽然金价保持攀升，但 4200—4250 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising prices of gold and silver, with gold stabilizing above $4200 and silver increasing by 0.43% to $58.544 per ounce [2] - As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [2] - According to a recent report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), central bank purchases are a major source of demand for gold in recent years, although some central banks may reduce their gold holdings in the short term due to rising gold prices [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's outlook for 2026 suggests that gold prices could rise by 15% to 30% due to factors such as declining U.S. Treasury yields, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increased risk aversion [2] - Conversely, if "re-inflation returns," gold prices may face a correction pressure of 5% to 20% [2] - Experts indicate a strong probability of a bullish trend for gold in the medium to long term, suggesting that short-term adjustments present a buying opportunity, while cautioning investors to be wary of high volatility at elevated price levels [2] Group 3 - The upcoming week is significant for central banks, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its December interest rate decision on December 11, with over an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut expected [3] - This decision is crucial not only for the year-end performance of U.S. risk assets but also for providing key guidance on the Fed's rate-cutting path for 2026 and global central bank policies [3] - Other central banks, including those of Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, Ukraine, and Turkey, will also announce their interest rate decisions this week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and silver prices, highlighting the increasing demand from central banks and the potential future movements in gold prices due to various economic factors [3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - As of November 30, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (approximately 2,305.39 tons), marking an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) month-on-month, continuing a streak of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [2]. - Central banks have been a major source of demand for gold in recent years, but some are now reducing their gold holdings due to rising prices, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation strategies [3]. - The World Gold Council forecasts that gold prices could rise by 15% to 30% in 2026, driven by factors such as declining U.S. Treasury yields and heightened geopolitical tensions, although a potential correction of 5% to 20% could occur if "re-inflation returns" [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Central Bank Actions - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 11 is highly anticipated, with over an 86% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, which will significantly influence the trajectory of risk assets and global central bank policies for 2026 [3]. - Other central banks, including those of Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, Ukraine, and Turkey, are also set to announce their interest rate decisions this week, indicating a broader global focus on monetary policy adjustments [4].

12月7日，中国人民银行发布最新数据显示，中国11月末黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为 连续第13个月增持黄金。 对于中国央行连续增持黄金储备，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，美国新政府上台后，全球政治、 经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。从控制成本角度看，暂停增持黄 金的必要性下降；从优化国际储备结构角度看，增持黄金的必要性上升。 "未来央行增持黄金仍是大方向。"王青强调。 从金价表现来看，11月份，国际金价由10月末的4000美元/盎司震荡上行至4200美元/盎司上方。12月以 来，金价维持在4200美元/盎司关口震荡。本周，伦敦金现收报4197.405美元/盎司，周跌幅为0.5%； COMEX黄金收报4227.7元/盎司，周跌幅为0.67%。 图片来源：新华社 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析认为，一方面，11月下旬以来美联储降息预期升温、美元贬值直接助推 金价上涨；另一方面，美国联邦政府结束关门、俄乌谈判重回轨道、中美关系回温等积极因素压制了市 场的避险情绪，黄金价格未能突破10月中旬4380美元/盎司的高位。 截图来源：中国人民银行官网 中金公司在近日发布的研报 ...

12月7日，中国人民银行官网更新了官方储备资产。截至2025年11月末，中国黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第13个月增持黄金。 | 2025.09 | | 2025.10 | | 2025.11 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 亿美元 | ZSDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 1 | | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 10 | | USD | SDR | USD | SDR | USD | SDR | | | 33386.58 | 24352.47 | 33433.43 | 24612.45 | 33463.72 | 24631.64 | | | 112.29 | 81.91 | 110.58 | 81.40 | 110.59 | 81.40 | | | 561.14 | 409.30 | 555.62 | 409.03 | 557.16 | 410.11 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price movements indicating a potential for both upward and downward trends, influenced by various economic factors and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On December 5, gold prices initially rose to around $4260 but then fell sharply to approximately $4190, resulting in a daily decline of about $70, closing at $4197.83, down 0.21% for the day and 0.74% for the week [1]. - The current gold market is characterized by a solid support base, but lacks new positive drivers, leading to expectations of short-term price fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Goldman Sachs indicates a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which, along with geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, supports a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2]. - Citigroup highlights the "long tail effect" of geopolitical risks and ongoing central bank gold purchases as factors providing downside protection for gold prices, with a long-term target of $4500 [2]. Group 3: Price Projections - The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong $200 rally, with key resistance at $4220 and support around $4100 [3]. - If gold prices can stabilize above $4220, there is potential to test previous highs near $4264; however, if prices fall below $4185, the next support level to watch is around $4163 [3].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On December 5, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported at 13,687 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of 0.45%, opening at 13,382 yuan per kilogram, reaching a high of 13,750 yuan and a low of 13,232 yuan [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 191,000, the lowest in over three years, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000, alleviating concerns about the labor market but not altering expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [1] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. September PCE price index report, which is expected to cause significant market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures suggests that precious metals may maintain a high-level oscillation pattern due to ongoing rate cut expectations and short-term technical adjustment pressures, with key support for gold at $4,200 per ounce and silver at $57 per ounce [1] - Jinrui Futures notes that current tight supply is pushing silver prices higher, with long-term core drivers for gold and silver prices remaining robust despite short-term adjustments [2] - Dayue Futures indicates that supply shortage dynamics are cooling, leading to a price pullback, but expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and optimistic views on Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue to support silver prices [2]

Core Insights - Central banks experienced their strongest monthly gold purchases in October, with many long-term buyers returning to the market and an increased willingness from more countries to accumulate gold [1][3] Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - In October, central banks net added 53 tons of gold, a month-on-month increase of 36%, primarily driven by a few large buyers [1][4] - A European central bank resumed purchases after a pause in May, buying 16 tons in October, raising its gold reserves to 531 tons, which constitutes about one-quarter of its total reserves [1][4] - Year-to-date, global central banks have net purchased 254 tons of gold, a growth rate slightly lower than the past three years, reflecting the impact of rising gold prices rather than weak demand [4] Group 2: Trends Among Various Central Banks - Several central banks, including a South American central bank, continued to increase their gold holdings, with the latter adding 16 tons in October, bringing its total reserves to 161 tons [2][4] - Only one central bank recorded a decrease of 3 tons in reserves during October, indicating a broad interest in gold among official sectors despite uneven distribution of purchases [2][4] - The European central bank remains the largest buyer this year, having cumulatively added 83 tons, which is double that of the second-largest buyer [2][4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Intent - Many central banks have expressed intentions to increase their reserves, such as an Eastern European central bank planning to raise its gold reserves to at least 100 tons by 2030, nearly double its current level [2][4] - Recent international meetings have seen countries from Africa and East Asia considering expanding their gold allocations, aligning with a World Gold Council survey indicating that most central banks expect global official gold reserves to continue increasing [2][4] Group 4: Revaluation of Gold as an Asset - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases reflects a revaluation of gold as a no-counterparty risk asset amid inflation, liquidity issues, and geopolitical uncertainties [3][5] - Central bank buying behavior is seen as having long-term implications for investors, warranting close attention [5]