Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

智通财经APP获悉，截至4月25日当周，标普500指数在关税担忧缓和与财报季开启的双重利好下已突破 5500点整数关口，令指数距离高盛设定的5300点短期目标已高出225点，较5900点的12个月目标价也仅 剩375点的上行空间。截至 4 月 25 日收盘，标普 500 指数已涨至 5525.21 点。但在这轮由科技股领涨的 行情背后，高盛首席美股策略师戴维·科斯汀却敲响警钟：下周将有41%的标普500成分股披露业绩，企 业投资决策可能因政策不确定性加剧而踩下刹车。 面对经济放缓信号，高盛建议投资者聚焦现金回报能力。科斯汀观察到，"近几个月市场明显偏好派息 股而非成长股，这种模式通常出现在经济下行周期"。数据显示，当前标普500指数股息率已升至1.8%， 与十年期美债收益率倒挂幅度收窄至30个基点，显示债券替代效应正在显现。 随着财报季进入核心时段，市场将迎来关键验证期。高盛特别提示，需密切关注企业对于资本支出计 划、库存水平及供应链布局的表述，这些细节将揭示政策不确定性对企业决策的实质性影响。在财政赤 字与货币政策转向的双重压力下，美股或将迎来估值逻辑的重构时刻。 在具体支出类别中，人工智能巨头撑起了资本支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to decline further due to policy uncertainty in the US and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite a potential short-term rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of 06:15 ET, the euro/dollar pair fell by 0.3% to $1.1355, with a cumulative decline of approximately 0.3% for the week, although it has risen over 5.5% this month and nearly 10% year-to-date [3]. - UBS analysts noted that uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve and tariffs, has weakened the dollar and increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, supporting the rise of the euro/dollar pair [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor unease has been exacerbated by President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and legal inquiries into his potential removal, contributing to the dollar's decline [3]. - The discussion surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve has added a layer of uncertainty, combined with ongoing trade tensions, increasing tail risks for investors and further pressuring the dollar [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS anticipates that as trade agreements are reached, tariffs will gradually decrease, but ongoing uncertainty may impact US corporate investment and economic growth [4]. - The firm expects the euro/dollar pair to remain supported, predicting limited chances for it to fall to or below 1.10, and projecting a consolidation phase between $1.12 and $1.16 before gradually rising to a target of $1.18 by March 2026 [5][6][7]. - UBS has revised its euro/dollar forecasts upward to $1.14 in June, $1.16 in September, and $1.16 in December, with a long-term target of $1.18 by March 2026, compared to previous forecasts of $1.10, $1.12, $1.12, and $1.14 respectively [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility this week, reaching a high of $3500 per ounce before retreating due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking [2][3][4] - Trump's comments regarding interest rates and tariffs influenced market sentiment, initially boosting gold prices but later leading to a correction as trade tensions eased [3][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies contributed to fluctuations in gold prices, with mixed signals from Fed officials [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action suggests that gold is in a corrective phase after reaching the $3500 peak, with key support at $3260 and resistance at $3370/3371 [10][12][14] - If gold breaks above $3370/3371, it may indicate a continuation of the upward trend, while a drop below $3260 could signal a more significant downward movement [12][14] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, Q1 GDP, and PCE inflation data, which are expected to impact gold prices [9]

Group 1: Core Concerns - The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report indicates that 73% of respondents identify "global trade risk" as their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [1][3] - Half of the respondents express concerns about "policy uncertainty," reflecting anxiety over the current policy environment, which includes trade, fiscal, and monetary policies [1][4] - "Sustainability of U.S. government debt," which was the top concern in last year's report, has dropped to third place, yet remains a significant issue due to rising debt levels and potential impacts on market confidence in the dollar [1][5] Group 2: Market Implications - The escalation of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other major economies, poses a significant threat to global economic growth and financial market stability [3] - Policy uncertainty complicates market predictions and investment decisions, increasing market volatility [4] - The complex and uncertain market outlook necessitates diversified investment strategies and enhanced risk management practices to mitigate exposure to trade and policy risks [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies and investors are advised to diversify their investment portfolios to reduce risk exposure from single markets or assets [6] - Strengthening risk management, especially in supply chain management and market forecasting, is crucial to address risks arising from trade policies and uncertainty [6] - Continuous monitoring of policy developments is essential for timely adjustments in investment strategies and business plans [6]

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jingao Technology reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for 2024, primarily due to supply-demand imbalance and price drops across the solar industry [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 70.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.02% [1] - Net profit turned to a loss of 4.656 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 7.039 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The gross margin for the solar module business was only 4.82% in 2024, with domestic market gross margin at -7.98% and European market gross margin at -3.51% [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In 2024, the company shipped 79.447 GW of battery modules, with overseas shipments accounting for approximately 49% [1] - The planned production capacity for 2024 was not fully achieved, with actual module capacity reaching 100 GW, while silicon wafer and battery capacities were only over 80% and 70% of module capacity, respectively [2] - The company did not disclose operational targets for 2025, which is unusual compared to previous years [2] Group 3: Industry Context and Challenges - The solar industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to the release of new capacities, leading to widespread losses across the supply chain [3] - The global solar industry policies significantly impact the development speed and quality of the sector, creating uncertainties in both domestic and international markets [3] - The industry is facing structural overcapacity, with domestic production capacities exceeding 1100 GW, far surpassing global installation growth [3]

TI正努力摆脱其主要行业（尤其是汽车和工业市场）需求下滑的影响。该公司还在努力维持来自 中国客户的销售额，中国客户在第一季度贡献了约20%的收入。德州仪器面临来自美国和中国的关 税威胁，这给这家芯片制造商带来了难题。 该公司在美国境外拥有四家工厂，其中一家位于中国。由于正在将生产转移到德克萨斯州总部附近 的全新、更大的工厂，这些工厂的产能一直不足。但首席财务官拉斐尔·利扎尔迪表示，该国际网 络现在可以"快速扩张"。他表示，在一个地区生产的芯片可以轻松地在其他地区进行测试和封装。 与同行一样，德州仪器的股价今年也因对美国与其合作伙伴和竞争对手之间不断升级的贸易战的担 忧而受到打击。截至周三收盘，该股已下跌19%。 伊兰表示，德州仪器最艰巨的任务之一将是确保客户获得在关税影响最低的地区生产的芯片。这项 工作很难协调，尤其是考虑到电子元件的生产时间约为三个月，但他相信，他的公司比大多数同行 拥有更多选择。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容来自 路透 & 彭博社 ，谢谢。 近日，TI和ST两大芯片巨头在一季度的业绩中都提到，行业在转向复苏。 TI：给出乐观预测 全球最大的模拟芯片公司德州仪器（TI ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes the urgent need for countries to manage their fiscal affairs effectively amid high risks and uncertainties in the current environment [2] - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report indicates that recent tariff measures announced by the U.S. and retaliatory actions from other countries have increased financial market volatility, weakened global growth prospects, and heightened risks [2][3] - The IMF forecasts that global public debt will rise by 2.8 percentage points by 2025, reaching over 95% of GDP, with this trend expected to continue [2] Fiscal Pressure and Debt Levels - The IMF warns that under extreme adverse scenarios, global public debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2027, marking the highest level since World War II, exceeding baseline predictions by nearly 20 percentage points [3] - The rising demand for permanent expenditures, such as defense, is further increasing fiscal pressure on countries already facing high debt levels and strained fiscal conditions [2] - If policy uncertainties escalate, debt levels may rise beyond current estimates, exacerbating the fiscal challenges faced by nations [3]