Group 1: Beef Industry - The beef cycle in China is undergoing significant changes, with a long-term trend of price increases due to lower production capacity compared to consumption growth. The high profitability cycle in beef farming is leading to aggressive expansion downstream, but this has resulted in substantial losses since July 2023. The industry is characterized by low concentration and severe information asymmetry, similar to the pig farming industry before the African swine fever outbreak. Once capacity is effectively cleared, supply-demand mismatches and price elasticity may exceed expectations [3][57]. - China's beef production capacity is not proportional to its beef output, with a significant gap between live cattle production and beef yield. In 2024, China is projected to produce 520 million live cattle but only 779 million tons of beef, indicating inefficiencies in production practices [19][24]. - The beef import dependency in China has increased significantly, with imports rising from 601,000 tons in 2016 to 2,915,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8%. This has amplified the impact of imports on domestic beef pricing [24][25]. Group 2: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to experience a short-term decline in prices due to an oversupply of pigs, with the national breeding sow inventory remaining stable but limited growth. The Ministry of Agriculture has mandated a halt to the expansion of breeding sows, which will impact supply dynamics in the second half of 2025 [87][89]. - The supply of piglets is expected to increase, leading to higher market pressures in the second half of 2025. However, potential outbreaks of diseases in the autumn and winter could lead to a temporary decrease in supply, which may cause prices to rise in 2026 [89][92]. - The average asset-liability ratio of listed pig farming companies has improved from 73.9% to 61.6% between Q2 2023 and Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in financial health among leading firms in the industry [99]. Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improvements in efficiency and cost management, despite an oversupply in the breeding industry. The demand for veterinary drugs is anticipated to rise as pig prices recover, which will positively impact upstream animal health companies [84][90]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to an emphasis on quality, with the development of vaccines against diseases like African swine fever becoming a critical catalyst for growth in the animal health sector [90][92]. Group 4: New Consumption Trends - The pet consumption market in China is steadily growing, with the overall market size expected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The pet cat market is particularly strong, with a growth rate of 10.7% [59][62]. - Domestic brands are gaining popularity among pet owners, with a significant increase in preference for local products over foreign brands. This trend is driven by cost advantages and effective marketing strategies during major shopping events [72][79]. - The demand for pets as companions is rising due to demographic changes, including an aging population and declining marriage rates, which is expected to further boost the pet industry [67][68].

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on agricultural investment opportunities driven by price increases in key products such as beef and grains, policy reforms in the supply side, and recovery in downstream demand [5] - The beef industry is expected to see a price upturn after a period of losses, with a projected industry capacity reduction exceeding 10% [5][12] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to experience a slight decline in supply in 2025, with a focus on high-quality leading enterprises due to supply-side policies [5][45] - Poultry farming is facing supply disruptions, but demand recovery is expected to improve the market [5][87] Livestock Industry - Global beef prices have started to rise again after two years of decline, with May prices reaching $6.62 per kg, a 13% year-on-year increase [12] - China's beef consumption is projected to grow, with a total consumption of 11.52 million tons in 2024, up 3.84% year-on-year [22] - The domestic beef supply is expected to decline significantly due to a drop in cattle inventory, with a forecasted reduction of over 10% [22][24] Dairy Industry - China's raw milk prices have been declining since mid-2021, with the average price at 3.04 yuan per kg as of June 13, 2024, down 7.88% year-on-year [33] - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant capacity reduction, with over 90% of the industry facing losses [33] - A potential recovery in milk prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply-side capacity continues to decrease [38] Pig Farming - The pig supply is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a projected output of 703 million pigs in 2024, down 3.3% year-on-year [45] - The average price of pigs is forecasted to be around 14.5 yuan per kg for the year, reflecting a decrease in supply pressure [45][54] - The industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with average profits for self-breeding and self-raising operations improving significantly [54][67] Poultry Farming - The yellow-feathered chicken market is stabilizing, with a projected output of 3.34 billion birds in 2024, down 7.18% year-on-year [92] - The white-feathered chicken supply remains ample, with prices stable as the market awaits demand recovery [98] - Long-term demand for white-feathered chicken is expected to rise, supported by improved efficiency and domestic breed replacement [102] Feed and Grain - The total feed volume is expected to increase due to rising pig inventories and improved profitability in livestock farming [107] - Grain prices are projected to recover from recent lows, influenced by external factors such as weather and international relations [117] - The report emphasizes the importance of grain security and the potential impact of trade relations on domestic agricultural costs [117]

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The report presents a unique research framework that suggests pig prices may stabilize before declining, reaching a low by the end of the year, with capacity reduction being a current industry theme [2][4] - The analysis indicates that the pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the current phase is characterized by price declines and capacity reduction, with a focus on the impacts of prices, policies, and diseases [4][5] Group 2: Duty-Free Industry - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the sales decline in the duty-free sector, with a strong rebound in average transaction value, indicating signs of data recovery [2][10] - The implementation of the "immediate buy and refund" policy nationwide is expected to enhance the shopping conversion rate for foreign consumers in China [12][20] - The report suggests that the duty-free channel has significant price advantages, allowing it to capture market share effectively, with products like cosmetics being priced at 70-80% of taxable prices [12][22] Group 3: Debt Market - The report anticipates a key strategy shift in the debt market, with expectations of a long-term decline in broad interest rates due to economic data divergence and capital market resilience [6][7] - It discusses the potential for credit bond rates to decrease, enhancing the attractiveness of government bonds [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity and interest rate trends, suggesting that the debt market may experience a rebound [6][7] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Industry - The report indicates that the solid-state battery industry is entering a phase of accelerated industrialization, supported by government policies and funding [24][25] - It highlights the significant market potential for solid-state batteries in various applications, including electric vehicles and low-altitude aircraft [25][26] - The report notes that leading companies are making progress in developing solid-state battery prototypes, which is expected to attract more players into the market [26][27] Group 5: Construction Industry - The report outlines that broad infrastructure investment increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 12% [28][30] - It emphasizes the need for continued policy support to stabilize the real estate market and improve market confidence [30][31] - The report recommends several construction companies with high dividend yields as potential investment opportunities [31]

Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

Group 1: Core Views - The core focus of Muyuan Foods is on internationalization, with plans for an IPO in Hong Kong and collaborations with Vietnamese companies [1][2] - The purpose of the Hong Kong IPO is to enhance the company's credibility in the global market rather than to raise funds due to a lack of capital [1][3][7] - The company aims to leverage its experience from the African swine fever crisis to achieve excess returns in overseas markets [1][8] Group 2: IPO Strategy - Muyuan Foods submitted its H-share application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 27, with the IPO expected to occur in the fourth quarter of this year [2][3] - The company emphasizes that completing the IPO is more important than the amount of funds raised, as it will facilitate international business development [5][7] - The IPO proceeds will be used for international sourcing, talent acquisition, and partnerships with leading overseas companies [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current characteristics of the pig cycle are described as "weak cycle, narrow fluctuations, and slow changes," indicating a shift in market dynamics [17][18] - The company believes that the cost of pig farming can be reduced to around 10 yuan per kilogram, with current costs at 12.2 yuan per kilogram [20] - The focus on cost reduction is primarily driven by disease prevention, with smart technology playing a crucial role in this effort [20] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Muyuan Foods is investing in artificial intelligence and digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for a future of 24-hour unmanned operations [14][16] - The company is exploring overseas markets by exporting advanced equipment and technology, with Vietnam being the first target [8][11] - The revenue from smart equipment is currently low but is expected to grow significantly as the company expands its technological capabilities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that pig prices may stabilize before declining towards the end of the year, with a focus on capacity reduction as the current industry theme, emphasizing the importance of price, policy, and disease as catalysts [1]. Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - Year-to-date price stability indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1]. - The pig cycle is defined by the breeding cycle and efficiency cycle, with historical price trends showing that efficiency cycles can lead to price turning points around April and peaks in Q3 [1][2]. Group 2: Price Outlook - The efficiency cycle will still impact prices in 2025, but to a lesser extent than in previous years, leading to a stable to slightly strong price in the middle of the year, followed by increased downward pressure in the latter half [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that piglet prices typically decline around June, and the assumption that hot weather will lead to price drops has not held true in recent summers [2]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Investment Opportunities - The industry is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which is historically the best-performing stage for pig cycle stocks [3]. - Major stocks within the sector are currently valued at relatively low historical levels, with potential catalysts for price increases including price declines, disease situations, and policy changes [3]. - Investment selection should consider factors such as funding, cost, and growth, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term relative valuation increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The second listing of Muyuan Foods on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raises questions about the company's urgent need for capital, with a projected funding gap exceeding 60 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024 [1][2]. Financial Situation - The company's cash ratio for 2024 is only 0.2, indicating tight liquidity [2]. - As of the end of the first quarter, the company has interest-bearing debt exceeding 80 billion yuan, with short-term debt reaching 62.17 billion yuan, while cash on hand is only 23.566 billion yuan, resulting in a short-term debt funding gap of nearly 40 billion yuan [2]. - The minimum cash reserve required for daily operations is estimated at 20.2 billion yuan, leading to a funding gap of over 7 billion yuan when considering restricted cash [3][4]. Dividend Distribution - In 2024, Muyuan Foods plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 7.588 billion yuan, which is 45.38% of its net profit [5][7]. - The actual controller of the company will receive over 4 billion yuan from the cash dividends [8]. - The company has revised its dividend policy to distribute at least 40% of its distributable profits in cash from 2024 to 2026 [7]. Operational Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, a 24.43% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [5]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend, with revenue of 36.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, and a net profit of 4.491 billion yuan, up 288.79% [5]. Market Position and Competition - Muyuan Foods has become the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with a market share increasing from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024 [9]. - The company's pig output increased from 6.12 million heads in 2022 to 7.16 million heads in 2024 [9]. - However, the cost advantage of Muyuan Foods appears to be narrowing as competitors like Wens Foodstuffs have improved their cost management [10]. Industry Trends - The pig price has recently dropped below the industry breakeven point, with prices reported at 14.24 yuan per kilogram, down 24.13% year-on-year [12]. - The number of breeding sows, which influences supply, remains above the normal level, indicating potential challenges for price recovery [13][14].

以下文章来源于侃见财经 ，作者侃见财经 侃见财经 . 看见不一样的财经！ 本文转载自侃见财经 值班编辑 | 江江 视觉 | 诺言 首富的更迭，反映出了产业的变迁。 近期，泡泡玛特创始人王宁取代牧原股份创始人秦英林成为河南新首富。王宁的登顶，是市场对于潮玩 经济的肯定，同时也折射出市场对于养殖企业的态度。 但对于秦英林而言，王宁的超越或许只是周期的游戏。作为全国最大的养猪企业，夯实基础向外突围才 是目前的重中之重。 因此，在此背景之下，国际化就成了牧原股份的"必选项"。 5月27日，牧原股份向港交所递交了上市申请，拟在主板上市，中信证券、摩根士丹利、高盛为联席保 荐人。 | 2025 年 | | | | 秦英林 × | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 排名变化 | 财富 | 个人信息 | 花亦信當 | | No. 92 | ~ -33 | ¥ 1350 亿 | 秦英林、钱瑛夫妇 | 牧原 | | | | | 先生 59、女士 58 | 行业:畜牧 | 牧原股份表示，"全球生猪养殖业仍然高度分散，前五大生猪养殖企业在2024年的全球销量市场份额仅 11.8%，通过我们 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 近期，生猪养殖板块迎来大涨。截至6月11日，猪肉概念板块 （BK0882） 在近9个交易日内收涨了 6.07%。其中，牧原股份、巨星农牧和神农集团的涨幅分别达到了15.57%、18.64%和27.64%，这背 后的推手无疑是频繁出台的政策利好。 回顾5月29日，发改委召开会议，明确提出要稳产能、稳猪价，并出台了五大措施： （1）不再增加母猪数量； （5）要求相关猪企每月上报数据。 （2）育肥猪的体重要降到120公斤； （3）不鼓励卖二育猪； （4）希望毛猪价格能够稳定； 紧接着，6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通 知，计划收储数量为1万吨。 回顾《 普通人的暖冬，养猪人的"寒冬" 》一文的观点，2025年猪价很悲观，大家要谨慎参与。至于 机会何时出现？妙投认为或许要等一些外部催化，如政策干预或疫病爆发，甚至一个寒冬，都可能会 酝酿出不错的机会。 那么，在这个时刻，政策" ...

作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 近期，生猪养殖板块迎来大涨。截至6月11日，猪肉概念板块（BK0882）在近9个交易日内收涨了6.07%。其中，牧原股份、巨星农牧和神农集团的涨幅分别 达到了15.57%、18.64%和27.64%，这背后的推手无疑是频繁出台的政策利好。 回顾5月29日，发改委召开会议，明确提出要稳产能、稳猪价，并出台了五大措施： 出品 | 妙投APP 紧接着，6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通知，计划收储数量为1万吨。 回顾《普通人的暖冬，养猪人的"寒冬"》一文的观点，2025年猪价很悲观，大家要谨慎参与。至于机会何时出现？妙投认为或许要等一些外部催化，如政策 干预或疫病爆发，甚至一个寒冬，都可能会酝酿出不错的机会。 那么，在这个时刻，政策"出手"是否会推动这场漫长的猪周期迎来反转？ 为何此时"出手"？ 政策之所以要在此刻"出手"，主要是因为生猪产能一直处于供给过剩、猪价持续下行的状态，CPI被严重拖累。 截至6月9日，国内生猪（外三元）价格为13.96元/公斤，今年内下降了1.78元/公斤，距去年的高点下跌了逾7元/公斤。 猪价的持续 ...