在日美欧的债券市场，期限较长的超长期国债的利率上升（债券价格下跌）正在加速。越来越多的人担 心，美国特朗普政府的关税政策将导致全球供应链混乱和通货膨胀恶化。旨在支撑经济的的财政政策导 致公共债务膨胀的不安也在各国普遍存在。如果利率上升持续，还有可能造成住宅投资减少等带来的经 济减速和金融市场的进一步混乱。 信用评级被降后的首次美债招标受挫 5月21日，美国债券市场上的30年期国债的收益率上升至近5.1%，创出1年半以来的最高水 平。日本新发行的30年期和40年期国债收益率近期也均创出历史新高。英国和德国的30年期 国债收益率也在大幅上升。背后原因之一是各国财政的不稳定…… 在5月21日的美国债券市场，30年期国债的收益率较前一交易日上涨约0.13%，接近5.1%，创出2023年 秋季以来、1年半以来的最高水平。进入5月以来的涨幅超过0.4%，呈现出快速上升的状况。 当日利率上升的契机是同一天下午传出的美国20年国债招标低迷的消息。5月16日，信用评级机构穆迪 评级下调了美国国债评级，在这之后的首次美国国债招标即受挫，这加剧了10年以上的长期和超长期利 率的上升和美国股市的下跌。5月21日，道琼斯工业平均指数比 ...

据俄罗斯经济部数据，截至5月19日，俄罗斯年度 通货膨胀率为9.90%，一周前为10%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lebanon is facing its most severe challenges since the civil war, with ongoing economic crises and the aftermath of prolonged conflicts, despite a ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024 [1][12]. Economic Conditions - The waste recycling economy is emerging in war-torn areas, with individuals scavenging for valuable materials to earn money [3]. - Food prices have skyrocketed by 65 times since 2018 due to a lack of price control and exploitation by merchants [3]. - The Lebanese pound has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate reaching 89,000 LBP to 1 USD, drastically altering consumer purchasing habits [5]. Humanitarian Efforts - Humanitarian organizations are increasing efforts to provide essential supplies to returnees, but demand far exceeds supply [3]. - A significant portion of the population is still displaced, with only about 15% of residents in southern border villages returning home after the conflict [5]. Historical Context - Beirut was once known as the "Paris of the Middle East," thriving economically and politically until the civil war began in 1975, which caused extensive damage and loss [9][11]. - The civil war resulted in approximately 150,000 deaths and economic losses estimated at 1 trillion USD [11]. Political Landscape - Lebanon's governance is characterized by a sectarian power-sharing system, which complicates decision-making and hinders significant reforms [16][18]. - The political system has led to a concentration of power among a few families, making it difficult to implement necessary economic changes [16][18]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Lebanon needs to shift its economic focus from banking and real estate to sustainable agriculture, clean energy, and digital economy [18]. - Comprehensive economic reforms, including restructuring the banking system and attracting foreign investment, are essential for recovery [18].

据最新消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间20日宣布，将投资1750亿美元打造"金穹"导弹防御系统。特朗普 称，他已为这套导弹防御系统选定了一个设计方案，并将任命美国太空军高级将领迈克尔·格特莱领导"金 穹"项目。 不过，就在特朗普"大显身手"的同时，他支持率却下降了。路透/益普索最新民调显示，本周美国总统特朗普 的支持率略微下降至42%，追平新任期最低水平。 另据新华社援引美国媒体报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥20日在国会参议院一场听证会上称，特朗普不会于今年晚些 时候赴南非参加二十国集团领导人会议，因为南非一贯与美国政策不一致。 千亿美元打造导弹防御系统 据央视新闻消息，当地时间5月20日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国曾帮助以色列建立导弹防御系统，美国系统 的技术将比以色列更先进。特朗普称，国会法案将包括250亿美元的"金穹"建设资金，总成本将高达1750亿美 元。 特朗普称，已选定"金穹"防御系统架构，将包含天基拦截器。特朗普表示，"金穹"防御系统的设计将与美国现 有的防御能力相结合，并有望在特朗普任期结束前全面投入使用。因此，美国将在大约三年内完成。 据路透社报道，特朗普宣称，该项目将在2029年1月，也就是他的这一任期 ...

Group 1 - AI chips have become a focal point during President Trump's first visit to the Middle East, with NVIDIA announcing the sale of over 18,000 AI chips to Saudi Arabia for a 500 MW data center [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has intensified its scrutiny of Huawei products amid ongoing trade tensions, which has implications for the tech industry [1] - Despite the trade war, China's export total reached 6.13 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, showing resilience with a slight decline in imports but a recovery in growth rates [1] Group 2 - The U.S. automotive industry is heavily reliant on global supply chains, particularly from China, and rising tariffs have led to increased costs for manufacturers, ultimately affecting consumer prices and contributing to inflation [3] - The emergence of Chinese companies like DeepSeek, which offer competitive AI models and electric vehicle charging technologies, poses a challenge to U.S. tech firms [3][5] - Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration has become precarious as he faces pressure to distance himself from the government amid declining stock prices and personal wealth [5][7] Group 3 - There is a growing sentiment among U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, that the trade war strategy may need to shift as the costs to the U.S. economy become more apparent [7][8] - The need for actual actions to demonstrate sincerity in negotiations with China is emphasized, as mere statements are insufficient for meaningful progress [8]

加拿大整体CPI跌至1.7%，但核心指标有所上升 金十数据5月20日讯，加拿大统计局周二表示，加拿大4月份的整体通胀年率从3月份的2.3%降至1.7%， 原因是在取消联邦消费者碳税后，整体能源价格暴跌12.7%。但受潜在价格压力影响，加拿大央行密切 关注的三项核心通胀指标中，有两项触及13个月高点。加拿大央行上个月预测，由于取消碳税和原油价 格下跌，整体数据将降至1.5%左右。汽油价格较2024年4月下降18.1%，天然气价格同比下降14.1%。不 过，与去年同期相比，消费者在食品杂货上的支出增加了3.8%，高于3月份的3.2%。4月份旅游价格同 比上涨6.7%。按月计算，通货膨胀率下降了0.1%，而分析师此前的预测是下降0.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading economic index in the U.S. fell to 99.4 points in April, marking the largest decline since March 2023, raising concerns about the economic growth outlook [1][9] Group 1: Reasons for Decline in Leading Economic Index - Global economic slowdown significantly impacts the U.S. economy, with factors such as international trade tensions, slowing growth in emerging markets, and global policy uncertainty contributing to the decline [3] - Domestic policy uncertainty, including adjustments in fiscal policy, changes in tax policy, and regulatory environment, leads to cautious investment and expansion decisions by businesses [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecasts - The forecast indicates that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will slow to 1.6% by 2025, lower than previous expectations, reflecting market concerns about the growth outlook [5] Group 3: Inflation Pressures - Despite the economic slowdown, inflationary pressures remain, with the inflation rate in the U.S. rising over the past year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6] Group 4: Policy Adjustments and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve may need to adjust monetary policy in response to the anticipated economic slowdown, potentially leading to more accommodative measures to support growth, which will impact market interest rates and asset prices [8] - Market expectations regarding the U.S. economic growth outlook have shifted, with investor concerns about the slowdown potentially leading to increased market volatility, particularly in equity and bond markets [9]

5月7日，美联储在货币政策决策会议上，决定维持联邦基金利率不变。这也是去年下半年持续降息之 后，美联储连续第三次按兵不动。当然在贸易战不确定因素上升的背景之下，美联储的这一决策符合市 场的普遍预期。美联储主席鲍威尔在会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储不必急于调整利率，目前的政 策是适度限制的，美国总统特朗普要求降息的呼吁不会影响美联储的工作。 今年以来，在特朗普就任后，美联储改变此前持续降息的政策趋势，一直维持利率不变。这也引起特朗 普的一再指责，其多次呼吁美联储降息，并透露可能让鲍威尔提前"下课"。鲍威尔也多次表示会保持美 联储货币政策的独立性，不会听命于特朗普的指手画脚。货币政策委员会一致通过的利率决议，表明此 次决议并非鲍威尔一人之力，而是美联储集体的看法。当然，在市场巨幅波动的背景之下，特朗普也曾 表示不会寻求立刻让鲍威尔"下课"，似乎放缓了立场，以安抚市场。此次美联储继续选择维持政策不 变，在外界看来，有着和特朗普继续对抗的意味，似乎鲍威尔"扳回一局"。 当然，促使美联储一致决定维持不变的主要还是美国经济的现状，并非给特朗普"拆台"。抛开美联储与 新一届美国政府之间的分歧，就经济基本面来看，袖手旁观可 ...

通胀预计快速降温、欧央行6月降息几成定局 在出口面临压力的同时，通货膨胀预计将迅速降温。由于能源价格下跌和欧元走强，欧盟委员会预计 2026年欧元区的通货膨胀率将平均为1.7%，低于欧洲央行2%的通胀目标。这将促使欧洲央行在6月初发 布新预测，并可能进一步降低借贷成本以实现通胀目标。 虽然欧元自征收关税以来意外上涨，降低了进口价格并有助于抑制通胀，但欧元走强也强化了高关税对 出口的影响。Dombrovskis表示: 在半年一度的经济前景报告中，欧盟由于美国提高关税打击出口，大幅下调今明两年经济增长预期，且 同时预计通胀将更快降温。 周二，欧盟委员会在最新报告中预计，欧元区20个国家的GDP今年将增长0.9%，2026年增长1.4%，低 于此前预测的1.3%和1.6%。 欧盟委员会还下调了今年出口的增长预测，从上次预估的2.2%大幅降至0.7%。而且这一预测假设美国 对欧盟大部分进口商品的关税维持在10%的水平，而不是特朗普4月2日宣布的更高水平。 负责经济事务的欧盟高级官员Valdis Dombrovskis表示： 美国关税声明背后不可预测且看似武断的理由，使经济不确定性达到了疫情最黑暗时刻以来 的最高水平。 ...

澳洲联储： 通货膨胀持续缓和。预计通胀率将保持在目标附近。 ...