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2026年社会服务行业投资策略报告:向阳花木易为春-20251231
Wanlian Securities· 2025-12-31 10:04
⚫ 2025 年回顾:国内服务消费占比已提升至 47%,预计将进入快速增长 阶段,成为居民消费的主要构成部分。从政策着力点看,政策的长期性 和稳定性更受重视,服务消费在政策布局中的地位得到进一步凸显。从 估值角度看,社会服务板块当前市盈率仍低于近五年平均值,修复空间 仍存。 ⚫ 出行链:2025 年旅游市场收入承压,景区"冷热不均"成为突出特征。假 期时间的增加与春秋假制度的落地和推广将有效延长消费时长,出行需 求加速释放,行业迎来边际改善。 ⚫ 免税:机场免税市场格局迎来重要变革,引入国际免税零售商与机场股 权投资的双重创新有望为口岸免税市场注入新活力。政策利好与封关效 应直接催化离岛免税消费热潮,封关初期吸引的购物客流带动市场迅速 回暖。 ⚫ 餐饮:连锁化进程加速,头部餐饮企业通过标准化运营和品牌效应实现 快速扩张,行业预计将迎来加速出清,区域性连锁品牌加速向全国范围 扩店,具备规模优势和品牌效应的连锁龙头有望获得更大发展空间。 [Table_Title] 向阳花木易为春 [Table_ReportType] ——2026 年社会服务行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点: ...
2025年格隆汇十大核心ETF跑赢市场10%,A500ETF基金(512050)上涨25%,12月“吸金”193亿元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-31 09:19
2025年,中国股市正式收官! 最后一个交易日,上证指数收涨0.09%,创下11连阳,全年收涨18.41%创10年新高;深成全年收涨29.87%;创业板指跌1.23%,全年大涨49.57%。 2025年全年,Wind微盘股指数以81.65%涨幅成功夺魁,创业板50指数以57.45%成为A股最猛宽基指数,科创100以57.45%的年度涨幅紧随其后,创业板 指累计上涨49.57%,科创50指数上涨35.92%。蓝筹宽基指数方面,A500指数全年上涨22.43%,沪深300指数上涨17.66%。 港股方面,恒生指数2025年累涨27.77%,创下自2017年以来最佳年度表现。恒生科技指数、恒生中国企业指数分别涨23.45%和22.27%。 背后资金青睐的背后得得益于中证A500指数创新的编制方法: 1、行业均衡,规避轮动风险:指数采用 "行业中性"的编制方法,其行业分布与A股整体市场结构高度接近。这意味着它不会在某个特定行业上过度暴 露,有效规避了在市场风格快速切换时"赚了指数不赚钱"的困境。 2、聚焦新质生产力,把握时代机遇:指数显著超配了电子、电力设备(新能源)、计算机、医药生物等代表中国产业升级方向的新兴行业 ...
2025,中国经济热词
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-31 08:35
2025年,中国经济顶压前行,向新向优。 新质生产力稳步发展,民生保障更加有力。 透过本刊梳理的十二个热词,我们共同回望2025年的中国经济。 "十五五"规划建议 2025年10月23日,党的二十届四中全会通过《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 的建议》。从基本实现社会主义现代化的历史进程看,"十五五"时期起着"承前启后"的重要作用。 党的二十大作出全面建成社会主义现代化强国"两步走"战略安排,其中第一步是到2035年基本实现社会 主义现代化。通过实施"十四五"至"十六五"三个五年规划,我们就能完成这第一步的历史任务。 从基本实现社会主义现代化的目标要求看,"十五五"时期是"夯实基础"的重要阶段。 从现在起到2035年,只有10年时间,前5年发展好了才能为后5年乃至更长远的未来争取更大主动。"十 五五"时期,加紧巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项,正是要为2035年基本实现社会主义现 代化奠定更加坚实的基础。这是"夯实基础"的重要意义所在。 九三阅兵 9月3日,纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大会在北京天安门广场隆重举行。在盛 大阅兵仪式上,所有受阅武器装备都是国产现 ...
湖南:到2035年养老产业体系成熟定型
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-31 07:52
人民财讯12月31日电,湖南省人民政府办公厅发布关于壮大养老产业促进银发经济发展的实施意见,到 2029年,基本形成适合我省省情的养老产业格局,养老服务能力显著增强,银发经济初具规模;到2035 年,养老产业体系成熟定型,银发产品供给与老龄人口发展需求总体平衡,实现银发经济高质量发展。 ...
国投证券:银发经济与自我保健时代迎来发展新机遇 未来行业将更加鼓励科技创新
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 06:55
国投证券发布研报称,保健食品行业市场空间广阔,消费者对于健康需求日渐专业化,对于免疫系统、 骨骼、美容抗衰等需求强劲。保健食品线上和线下销售占比出现结构性转变。2025年线上占比预计可达 63.3%,占比远超线下传统销售渠道,跨境电商无需"蓝帽子"也使得更多国外品牌进入国内市场。未来 保健食品行业将更加鼓励科技创新,以"价值驱动"为导向,头部集中度有望获得提升。 国投证券主要观点如下: 行业政策带来红利,新消费属性类逐渐兴起 保健食品行业市场空间广阔,据欧睿统计,25年全球保健食品市场规模预计将超1400亿美元,同比增长 4.62%;我国市场规模预计将达2400亿元,同比增长4.30%。我国保健食品上市采用注册备案双轨制,产 业链上游为原材料供应商,中游为保健食品生产商,下游为经销商及零售商。消费者对于健康需求日渐 专业化,对于免疫系统、骨骼、美容抗衰等需求强劲。 监管宽松导致长尾化趋势,消费者功效需求强化 在美国、澳大利亚等国外地区,上市监管政策越宽松,市场集中度越低。我国保健食品行业准入门槛较 低,未来将涌入更多长尾品牌,这也给第三方代工商带来更多机会。当下我国保健食品行业市场头部集 中度较低,行业CR3 ...
完美公司荣获“年度创新引领力品牌”,树立大健康产业发展新标杆
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-12-31 05:41
近日,在新京报主办的2025年度NEWS品牌样本专题评选中,深耕大健康产业31年的完美(中国)有限 公司(以下简称"完美公司")凭借核心产品完美牌时光葆固体饮料(以下简称"完美时光葆")的多维创 新实践,成功获评"年度创新引领力品牌"。 此次荣誉的获得,不仅是对完美公司在科研突破、营销革新与生态构建方面卓越成就的高度认可,更标 志着以完美时光葆为代表的健康产品,为行业破解"伪科学泛滥、技术壁垒高、认知不足"的发展痛点提 供了可复制的创新范式。 硬核科研破解细胞健康核心难题 当前,随着"银发经济"的蓬勃兴起以及《提振消费专项行动方案》中"积极推动健康长寿相关产业发 展"政策的落地实施,大健康领域中聚焦延缓身体机能衰退、提升生命质量的赛道正迎来爆发式增长。 消费者对健康的需求已从被动治疗转向主动管理,从表层护肤延伸至细胞级健康。但市场上鱼龙混杂的 概念炒作、缺乏科学依据的产品宣传等问题,让消费者陷入选择困境。在此背景下,完美公司以完美时 光葆为载体,将前沿科技、国民情感与健康生态深度融合,不仅实现了产品力与品牌力的双重提升,更 推动行业从"玄学概念"迈向"量化科学"。 完美时光葆的成功,首先源于其扎根科研的产品创 ...
长期主义的较量:银发经济的价值重塑与生态构建
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-31 05:11
来源:环球网 "十五五"规划建议明确提出"发展银发经济",标志着应对人口老龄化的战略正从被动防御转向主动布 局。在这条具备高度确定性的万亿级赛道上,参与竞逐的市场主体正快速扩容。 据和伊咨询旗下专注健康养老产业的公众号"养老BAR"近期披露,2025年A股市场已有76家非金融类上 市公司深度布局银发经济相关业务。它们以多元化的战略姿态,竞逐这场关乎未来社会结构与经济增长 模式的核心产业盛宴。 最新发布的2025年三季报显示,包括盘龙药业、九州通、科大讯飞等在内的多家企业均展现出亮眼的财 务表现,意味着银发经济正在从概念走向业绩兑现。 具体来看,当前银发经济的参与者主要可分为三大类别:医药健康主力军(如昆药集团、以岭药业 等)、科技赋能者(如万达信息、卫宁健康等)以及跨界入局者(如可靠股份、奥佳华等)。尽管它们 的切入路径与商业打法各异,但都共同指向并验证了同一个核心事实:银发经济并非单一赛道,而是一 个以老年群体需求为核心,能够重构甚至重塑传统产业链的"新经济生态"。 从发展逻辑来看,银发经济的崛起,标志着产业视角的根本转变——从"应对老龄化压力"的社会保障思 维,转向"激活银发需求、创造新增长极"的经济发展 ...
2025年度消费&商业热词出炉:“超级供应链”入选十大热词
Sou Hu Wang· 2025-12-31 03:55
Core Insights - The article outlines ten key consumption and business trends for 2025, including "AI," "robotics," "food delivery wars," "super supply chains," "cultural tourism integration," "weight management," "event economy," "emotional health," "silver economy," and "cross-industry collaboration" [1][5]. Super Supply Chain - The strategic value of supply chains is increasingly recognized, with a reported 5.1% year-on-year growth in national freight turnover in the first half of 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. - The supply chain finance market in China has surpassed 50 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.6% from 2019 to 2025, stabilizing the funding chains of over 30 million small and micro enterprises [3]. - Companies like JD.com are investing heavily in supply chain infrastructure, with assets reaching 174.3 billion yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of super supply chains in enhancing efficiency and service optimization [3][4]. AI - AI technology is deeply integrated into industrial upgrades and consumer quality improvements, with a significant increase in AI-related product searches on JD.com, growing over 100 times year-on-year [8][9]. - The government aims for over 70% application rate of new-generation intelligent agents by 2027, driving AI's role in everyday consumer products [8]. Robotics - The robotics industry in China saw a revenue growth of 27.8% in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the largest industrial robot application market globally [12]. - The search volume for robotics-related products on JD.com exceeded 80 million, indicating a shift from novelty to practical tools in daily life [12]. Food Delivery Wars - The food delivery market has evolved into a competitive landscape dominated by Meituan, Taobao Flash Purchase, and JD Delivery, with high brand recognition rates [15][16]. - Consumer focus has shifted from price to service quality, delivery speed, and overall experience, prompting platforms to enhance their service capabilities [16]. Cultural Tourism Integration - Cultural tourism is evolving towards immersive experiences, with the market expected to grow from 431.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 697.2 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 18.9% [18]. - Consumers are increasingly seeking experiences that connect them with local culture, as evidenced by significant growth in sales of products featuring local cultural elements [18]. Event Economy - The event economy is driving consumption across various sectors, with key events in 2025 generating over 16 billion yuan in consumer spending [21][22]. - The popularity of sports events is fostering a culture of regular participation in physical activities, contributing to a shift towards sustained consumer engagement [22]. Weight Management - Weight management is transitioning from a focus on weight loss to holistic health, with a significant increase in related product searches and sales on JD.com [24]. - The launch of specialized online services for weight management reflects a growing consumer interest in health-oriented solutions [24]. Emotional Health - Emotional health is becoming a mainstream concern, with a surge in demand for psychological services and products, as indicated by a dramatic increase in related searches on JD.com [26][27]. - The government's initiatives to enhance mental health services are contributing to the normalization of emotional health discussions in public discourse [26]. Silver Economy - The silver economy is expanding rapidly, with a reported 76% increase in silver-related products on JD.com from 2020, highlighting the growing market for elder care and lifestyle products [29][30]. - The government is actively promoting initiatives to enhance the quality of life for the elderly, further driving growth in this sector [29]. Cross-Industry Collaboration - Cross-industry collaboration is emerging as a key strategy for innovation, with various IPs collaborating to create new consumer experiences and expand market reach [31][34]. - The integration of cultural heritage and modern consumer demands is fostering new business models that enhance consumer engagement and satisfaction [34].
央视首届银发经济盛典,建行服务“大零号湾”案例入选!
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-31 02:24
12月29日,首届"CMG(中央广播电视总台)银发经济盛典"在央视财经频道播出。建设银行服务"大零号 湾"养老科技产业园区案例入选盛典"数智赋能篇"年度案例,展现了建行养老金融服务助力银发经济高 质量发展的最新进展,"健养安"品牌市场影响力正在不断提升。 银发经济的发展离不开金融力量的汇入。下一步,建设银行将不断增强服务国家建设能力,锚定"养老 金融专业银行",聚焦银发经济培育发展和养老金保值增值,坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合,努力 为客户提供陪伴一生一世的养老金融综合服务,用心打造"健养安"养老金融金字招牌。 "大零号湾"养老科技产业园拥有"岁月长青·创新研发区"和"银发向阳·产业承载区"两大功能区,以"打造 国际领先的养老科技创新集群"为目标,致力于成为全球养老产业技术策源地与应用示范区。 建设银行立足养老科技的转型发展需求与园区入驻企业成长需要,积极推进养老金融、科技金融融合发 展,为园区建设、企业发展、员工成长持续赋能。建设银行加大资金投放力度,为园区270多家康复辅 具、智慧养老、居家养老服务等科技型企业提供贷款,累计超过5亿元;联动建信养老金,与园区管理 方共同设立园区人才年金计划,并量身定制" ...
九州通掌舵奥园美谷重整收官 7.06亿加码千亿医美赛道布局
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-12-30 23:19
Core Viewpoint - 九州通 has successfully completed the restructuring investment plan for Aoyuan Meigu, acquiring its core assets for 706 million yuan, marking a strategic entry into the medical beauty sector [1][2][4] Group 1: Company Overview - Aoyuan Meigu, established in 1993 and formerly known as Hubei Jinhui, transitioned into the medical beauty industry after being acquired by Aoyuan Group in 2020 [2] - The company primarily focuses on bio-based fibers and medical beauty services, operating two high-end medical beauty hospitals with over 330,000 members and 80,000 active members annually [2] - In 2024, Aoyuan Meigu's medical beauty business is projected to generate 624 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 57% of total revenue [2] Group 2: Financial and Operational Challenges - Aoyuan Meigu has faced continuous operating losses and a debt crisis, leading to its stock being marked with "delisting risk warning" in 2023 [2] - The company was unable to repay due debts, prompting creditors to apply for restructuring in November 2024, which was approved by the court in December [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Implications for 九州通 - 九州通, as a leading private pharmaceutical distribution company, has built a comprehensive supply chain service platform and has been involved in the medical beauty sector for over 10 years [5][6] - The acquisition of Aoyuan Meigu allows 九州通 to establish a full-chain layout from upstream procurement to downstream service terminals, enhancing its competitive edge [6][7] - The domestic medical beauty market has surpassed 300 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate exceeding 18%, presenting significant opportunities for 九州通 to leverage its supply chain and improve profitability [6][7]