编者按：科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政的一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主义一 个重要政治优势。我国将于2026年开始实施"十五五"规划，目前党中央正在组织起草"十五五"规划建 议。编制和实施"十五五"规划，对于全面落实党的二十大战略部署、推进中国式现代化意义重大。凝聚 共识，汇聚众智，证券时报即日起推出"专家建言'十五五'规划"专栏，敬请垂注。 中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷 中泰证券研究所分析师贺钟慧 "十五五"时期，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性将继续上升，国内需求成为大国博弈的一种重要 战略资源。近年来，我国面临国内有效需求不足的困扰，依靠投资拉动的经济增长模式逐渐受到产能过 剩、债务高企、回报率偏低等多重因素制约，这要求我们进一步增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用，充 分挖掘消费潜力、提高消费能力，持续提升消费在GDP中的比重。 一、当前消费占比 较低的表现及影响 当前，消费占我国经济的比重较低，可以从规模占比和增长贡献率两个角度来看。 最终消费占GDP比例方面，2024年我国最终消费占GDP的比例为56.6%，近年来持续处于55%左右水 平。世界银行数据显示，2023年中国最终消费支出占G ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Shanghai International Elderly Care, Aids, and Rehabilitation Medical Expo showcases the growing potential and vitality of the silver economy, driven by diverse consumer needs and technological advancements in elderly care products [1][2]. Industry Overview - The expo featured nearly 500 exhibitors from 16 countries and regions, covering an exhibition area of 50,000 square meters, marking the largest scale in its history [1]. - The event highlighted the shift towards smart and diversified elderly care products, including smart nursing beds and intelligent wheelchairs, reflecting the industry's technological evolution [2][4]. Consumer Insights - The elderly consumers showed a strong interest in practical and cost-effective products, with many actively engaging with exhibitors to inquire about product safety, benefits, and pricing [3]. - The expo introduced a "Silver Life Festival" theme area, combining various consumer subsidy activities to stimulate demand among the elderly population [2]. Market Dynamics - Following the release of the State Council's opinions on developing the silver economy, more companies are entering the market, leading to a diversification of elderly care products [4][5]. - Financial institutions, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Shanghai Bank, launched tailored consumer activities for the elderly, focusing on various consumption scenarios [5]. Company Innovations - Haier Group introduced its new brand "Haier Care," showcasing products like smart therapy toilets and AI-powered health devices, indicating a strategic move into the elderly care sector [6]. - The market is evolving to meet the changing demands of the elderly, shifting from basic care needs to more diverse lifestyle and consumption preferences [7]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the emergence of smart health products, there is a need for more personalized solutions tailored to individual health conditions and lifestyles [7]. - There is a gap in market education for elderly consumers regarding new products and services, suggesting an opportunity for companies to invest in consumer awareness initiatives [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The aging economy is rapidly growing, with more listed companies targeting the trillion-yuan market through technology, products, and services [1] - By the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China is expected to reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [1] - The consumption potential of the elderly population in China is projected to increase to approximately 40.6 trillion yuan by 2050 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The demand for elderly care is shifting from basic security to diversified, personalized, and quality services, covering various segments such as health care, nursing, and age-friendly renovations [1] - The "integration of medical and elderly care" service system is seen as a breakthrough for the elderly care industry, with companies like Guangyu Group collaborating with hospitals and international organizations to enhance service ecosystems [1] Group 3: Government Support and Market Potential - Local governments are actively supporting the integration of medical and elderly care through favorable land policies and financial support, creating a conducive environment for industry development [2] - The market for elderly facility construction, renovation, and decoration is expected to reach 775.5 billion yuan by 2025, with home modifications for the elderly projected to reach 117.4 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Company Innovations - Companies are leveraging new technologies such as AI and robotics to create innovative solutions in the elderly care sector, with firms like Guomai Technology focusing on home care and health management [3] - Guomai Technology plans to launch an AI smart assistant designed to provide efficient and personalized services for the elderly [3] - Other companies, such as Suzhou Mediston Medical Technology, are promoting care robots in various settings, collaborating with tech giants to develop intelligent elderly care solutions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the growing importance of the silver economy in driving economic development, with a projected market size of 8 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, as the elderly population reaches 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [1][3][4] - Financial institutions are actively collaborating with local businesses to create a comprehensive financial consumption ecosystem targeting the elderly, covering various aspects of life such as food, travel, housing, entertainment, and healthcare [2][4] - Investment opportunities in the silver economy are categorized into three main types: rigid demand (daily necessities and healthcare), inclusive demand (community elderly care services and financial products), and upgraded consumption (elderly tourism and education) [3][4] Group 2 - Financial institutions are presented with significant business opportunities due to the expansion and upgrading of silver consumption, particularly in high-tech industries requiring financial services for incubation and mergers [4][5] - The government has introduced policies to stimulate consumption in the silver economy, including promoting aging-friendly transformations and developing new business models in areas like elderly tourism and health consumption [4][6] - Recommendations for financial institutions include developing products that integrate quality elderly services, leveraging technology for remote services, and enhancing financial services tailored to the elderly's needs [5][6]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Senior Expo, now in its 25th year, continues to grow in popularity, attracting over 28,300 visitors on its opening day, setting a new record for single-day attendance [2] - The event showcases a variety of products and services tailored for the elderly, highlighting the potential of the "silver economy" [4][11] Industry Trends - The silver economy is evolving into a comprehensive consumption ecosystem covering various aspects such as clothing, food, housing, transportation, travel, shopping, and entertainment [11] - There is a notable increase in the growth rate of sectors like rehabilitation care, elderly education, and medical care, with many companies reporting growth rates exceeding 30% [11] Company Activities - Companies like Skyworth are successfully launching products specifically designed for the elderly, such as a 75-inch smart TV, which has seen strong sales at the expo [4] - The Japanese brand Fukujukankou debuted at the expo, offering customizable shoes for seniors, addressing specific needs such as foot deformities and ease of wear [7] - IKEA introduced its upgraded "Elderly-Friendly Living" renovation project, showcasing products designed for the elderly and offering a 30% subsidy on eligible items purchased at the expo [10]

Group 1 - The smart elderly care sector is witnessing the emergence of new technologies and models that are creating various application scenarios for the silver economy [1][2] - The "Smart Long-term Care Insurance Operation Management Platform" aims to address pain points in service delivery for disabled elderly individuals, enhancing service quality and fraud prevention [2][3] - The "Long-term Care Core" product enhances existing sleep monitoring devices with automatic auditing features to verify service authenticity and quality [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are shifting from merely providing products to becoming "scene architects" that lead the lifestyle of the elderly, focusing on proactive health and technology empowerment [3][6] - The "Digital Health Management Platform" allows elderly individuals to assess their health across multiple dimensions and receive personalized health prescriptions [3][5] - The market for innovative rehabilitation aids, such as the "standing electric wheelchair," is gaining attention, with government subsidies available for buyers [5] Group 3 - The silver economy is projected to reach 19.1 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for 27.8% of total consumption and 9.6% of GDP, with further growth expected by 2050 [7] - The number of elderly care enterprises in China has increased from 9,529 in 2013 to 76,132 in 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the silver economy [7] - Challenges include insufficient effective demand from the elderly, as their needs are often specific and difficult to articulate, necessitating better assessment methods [7][8] Group 4 - High costs of smart care robots and health monitoring devices pose a financial burden on care institutions and families, while the elderly's willingness to pay for new services needs to be cultivated [8] - Suggestions include financing leasing services for equipment manufacturers and implementing a pay-for-performance model based on health improvement metrics [8] - Exploring "insurance + service" models can provide elderly individuals with preventive health services, potentially reducing the likelihood of illness or accidents [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Ping An has recently experienced significant stock price increases in both A-shares and H-shares, with A-shares reaching a nearly five-month high, and the total market capitalization surpassing 1 trillion RMB, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Ping An's H-shares have rebounded 28% from their year-to-date low, while A-shares have increased by 16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 11% and 19% respectively [2][5]. - The company's market capitalization has re-entered the "trillion club," reflecting robust investor sentiment and market positioning [2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The aging population in China is expected to exceed 300 million people aged 60 and above by 2024, leading to a projected "silver economy" worth 30 trillion RMB by 2035, which presents a significant growth opportunity for the insurance sector, particularly for companies like Ping An that are well-positioned in the "insurance + healthcare" space [5]. - Ping An has established a comprehensive "insurance + home care" model that aligns with the "9073" elderly care framework, achieving 100% coverage with top hospitals and nearly 240,000 signed pharmacies, while serving over 190,000 clients in home care across 75 cities [5][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Ping An's revenue for the first quarter of 2025 reached 10.6 billion RMB, marking a 25.8% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 57.86 million RMB, indicating strong financial health and growth [7][8]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.03 trillion RMB for 2024, making it the only insurance company in the industry to exceed the trillion RMB mark, with a net profit of 126.6 billion RMB, a 47.8% increase year-on-year, achieving the highest growth rate since 2020 [9][11]. Group 4: Investment and Valuation - As of June 12, 2024, Ping An's price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio is approximately 0.6, placing it at a historical low of 31%, which is significantly lower than its peers, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [15][19]. - The company offers a high dividend yield of 4.7%, which is attractive compared to competitors, and is expected to appeal to long-term investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [15][19]. Group 5: Market Positioning - Ping An's comprehensive financial and healthcare ecosystem has created a competitive advantage that is difficult to replicate, with significant improvements in agent productivity and new business value across various channels [9][11]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from regulatory support aimed at increasing long-term investments, with recent approvals for new fund management initiatives that will focus on long-term value investments [5][19].

作者 | beyond 编辑 | 小白 中国平安迎戴维斯双击进行时！ 中国平安（"平安"）这两天在资本市场可谓"双喜临门"，A股（601318.SH）和H股（02318.HK）携手 上涨，6月12日A股创下近五个月以来的新高。更振奋人心的是， 平安总市值强势重返 " 万亿俱乐部 " ！ 这表现直接把大盘甩在了身后，平安H股从年内低点已反弹28%，A股也涨了16%。同期，上证指数 涨幅11%，恒生指数涨幅19%。 （中国平安A股走势，来源：wind） 这波行情绝非偶然，背后是好赛道、好公司、低估值三重安全边际的强力支撑！ 万亿银发经济起航，政策东风再添火力 中国正加速步入老龄化社会，2024年60岁以上人口突破3亿，"银发经济"蓝海汹涌而至，2035年银发 经济规模有望达30万亿。这为保险行业，尤其是布局"保险+医养"的巨头，提供了最坚实的长期增长 逻辑。 财报也很硬核：继去年首度盈利后，今年一季度平安好医生收入猛增25.8%至10.6亿元，经调整净利 润5786万元。科技正深度融入平安的"综合金融+医疗养老"双轮战略，成为核心驱动力。 | | 截至3月31日止三個月 | | | | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the aging lighting market is an emerging opportunity for LED lighting companies, but the penetration rate of specialized aging lighting modifications is currently below 5% in China, facing challenges such as a lack of standards [3][6][7] - The "silver economy" market, which is valued in trillions, is increasingly recognized, with the elderly population in China projected to exceed 300 million by 2024, accounting for 22% of the total population [4][6][7] - Companies are shifting from price competition to developing high-value-added products, with smart lighting, human-centric lighting, and health lighting being key development directions [3][4] Group 2 - Major LED companies, including Mulinson and Foshan Lighting, are experiencing varying degrees of performance decline due to external trade environment changes and industry price drops [4][5] - The integration of AI technology into aging lighting solutions is seen as a new opportunity, with companies like Signify launching products that monitor elderly individuals' safety [4][5] - The current lack of standards for aging lighting leads to the prevalence of "pseudo-aging lighting products," highlighting the need for research and development of appropriate lighting formulas based on the physiological needs of the elderly [6][7][8] Group 3 - The aging population presents unique physiological challenges, such as reduced light transmission in the eyes, necessitating tailored lighting solutions to enhance safety and well-being [7][8] - The market for home modifications for the elderly is estimated to be worth 3 trillion yuan, yet the penetration of specialized lighting modifications remains low [7][8] - A proposed solution involves creating a "medical-industry-policy" triangle to establish clinical databases and develop dynamic lighting formulas that cater to various health conditions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Haier officially launched its new brand Haier care at the 2025 Shanghai International Elderly Care, Aids, and Rehabilitation Medical Expo, aiming to become the leading brand in China's elderly care industry, showcasing its strategic layout and innovative strength in the smart elderly care sector [1][3]. Industry Context - The elderly care market, valued in the trillions, faces structural challenges such as an incomplete regulatory framework and inconsistent product quality and service standards. The lack of leading brands hampers the market's quality upgrade and affects the consumer experience for the elderly [3]. - In response to these challenges, the State Council issued a document in 2024 to support the incubation of new brands in the elderly care economy, highlighting the importance of Haier's launch of Haier care as a proactive response to national strategies [3]. Company Strategy - Haier has been strategically positioning itself in the elderly care sector since 2022, developing a comprehensive smart elderly care solution known as the 1+5+N model, which includes user interaction, strategic partnerships, and industry positioning [5]. - The introduction of Haier care marks a new journey for Haier in product innovation and ecosystem building, with a commitment to becoming a global leader in smart elderly care solutions [5][6]. Technological Innovation - AI technology is increasingly penetrating various industries, providing new solutions to the challenges posed by an aging population, such as workforce shortages and resource misallocation. Haier is leveraging AI to create smart elderly care solutions [6][8]. - The launch event showcased several AI-powered products, including the AI infrared therapy mat and AI exoskeleton robot, reflecting Haier's deep commitment to innovation in elderly care technology [8]. Brand Values - The Haier care brand emphasizes four core values represented by the acronym C-A-R-E: Convenience, Activity, Responsibility, and Ease, which are illustrated through real-life stories of individuals benefiting from Haier's products [10][11][12]. - The mission of Haier care is to ensure that all parents can enjoy life with dignity, focusing on the needs of various elderly demographics and enhancing their quality of life through technology [12].