午后突然跳水！ 创业板指领跌 。 截至收盘， 沪指跌0.94% ， 深成指跌0.85% ， 创业板指跌1.18% 。 个股跌多涨少 ， 全市场超4200只个股下跌 。 沪深两市全天成交额1.16万亿 ， 较上个交易日放量529亿 。 板块方面 ， 可控核聚变 、 贵金属 、 创新药 、 维生素等板块涨幅居前 ， 港口 、 游戏 、 算力 、 电力等板块跌幅居前 。 01 午后突然跳水 多只高位股跌停 今日午后，市场突然大调整，早上向好的指数于下午两点之后直接跳水。 从结构上看，大盘蓝筹股是下跌的主要压力，今天早上长江电力就带头下跌，盘中跌幅扩大至2%，中国平安、中信证券、贵州茅台等多只权重股 短线跳水，中国石油、农业银行、中国人寿等股票更是贡献了较大的下跌点数，上证指数跌幅也跟随扩大。 | STEET | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600900 已收盘05-23 15:00:00 北京 | | | | | | 125.21万人加自选 30.49 -0.54 -1.74% | | | | | | 高 31.06 开 30.99 量 85.42万手 | | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72%, ChiNext Index down 0.96%, and the North Exchange 50 Index down 6.15% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.1 trillion, a decrease of 70.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,400 stocks declined, with banking stocks showing resilience, as several banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, reached historical highs [1] North Exchange 50 Index - The North Exchange 50 Index, which reached a historical high of 1500 points yesterday, saw a significant drop of over 6% today [4] - Leading stock Jinbo Biological, which has the highest market capitalization on the North Exchange, fell nearly 5%, with a current market value of 43.6 billion [7] - Jinbo Biological's stock price had been rising since March, peaking at 589.98 yuan per share on May 21, with a market value exceeding 52 billion [10] - The recent market adjustment is attributed to high-priced stocks retreating and signs of overbuying in micro-cap stocks [10] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector showed strength, with Sanofi's stock rising for four consecutive days, achieving a 20% limit-up [11] - Sanofi announced a licensing agreement with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF dual-specific antibody SSGJ-707, with a record-breaking upfront payment of $1.25 billion [15] - The potential valuation of Sanofi is discussed, with estimates suggesting a significant increase in net profit due to the licensing agreement [16] Pop Mart - Pop Mart's market capitalization surpassed 300 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a stock price increase of over 5% on May 21 [17] - The surge in stock price is attributed to the strong global demand for its newly launched Labubu third-generation plush product, which has seen significant sales both domestically and internationally [21] - Morgan Stanley raised Pop Mart's target price from 204 HKD to 224 HKD, citing strong demand for Labubu v3 as a key growth factor [22]

来源：雪球 曾经的煤炭股给我一个很大的启示 ， 那就是没有所谓的夕阳行业 ， 对投资而言 ， 赚钱的公司 都是好公司 。 巴菲特也说过类似的话 ， 无论是生产马蹄钉的公司 ， 还是高科技公司 ， 他们赚到的每一美元 钱都是一样的 。 这里的每一美元是能拿来自由支配的现金 ， 也就是all cash is equal 。 这里说说我的故事 ： 在2021年卖掉全仓的茅台之后 ， 熟悉的公司看了一圈 ， 都已经涨上来了 ， 没一家能下不去手 的 。 那时候正好在雪球看到有人分析 ， 煤炭股的股息率非常诱人 ， 港股的一些公司股息率超过了 10% 。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大唐炼金师 就去研究了下煤炭股 ， 主要看的有神华 、 陕煤 、 兖矿等 。 当时虽然没有像雪球那些煤炭大V一样 ， 做到对每家煤炭公司如数家珍 。 但因为煤炭企业财报简单 ， 业务也相对简单 ， 我也算对煤炭公司有了解一二 。 很多煤炭公司很纯粹 ， 就是产煤 、 卖煤 ， 卖煤的时候 ， 很多还有提前签好的长期协定 。 所以分析煤炭公司 ， 主要就是看储量 、 煤质 、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the stock market, emphasizing the rotation of styles and the inevitable return to value after periods of overvaluation in certain sectors [2]. Market Trends and Historical Context - In 2012-2013, small-cap stocks and the ChiNext index saw significant gains, while large-cap stocks were undervalued with a P/E ratio below 10 times [2]. - The second half of 2014 witnessed a rapid increase in large-cap stocks led by brokerage firms, while the ChiNext index remained stagnant [2]. - In 2015, the market shifted back to growth stocks, with the ChiNext index experiencing a 150% increase over four months, despite large-cap stocks remaining flat [2][3]. - The market peaked in May 2015, leading to a significant downturn with many stocks hitting their lower limits [3]. - From 2016 to 2018, overvalued growth stocks faced a three-year decline, while large-cap stocks began a small bull market, with leading banks reaching a valuation of 10 times [3]. - The market saw a downturn in 2018, with the ChiNext index suffering substantial losses [3]. - Between 2019 and 2021, strong stocks in sectors like oil and banking faced declines, while growth stocks in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology surged, with the ChiNext index rising by 200% [3]. - 2022 was another down year, but by early 2023, value stocks in banking, telecommunications, and oil began to lead the market again, with many doubling in value [3]. Future Outlook - By May 2025, the market shows signs of potential shifts, with banks, telecommunications, and oil stocks having doubled, but some are experiencing declining performance [4]. - Leading companies in consumption and manufacturing have seen their dividend yields drop below 4% or even 5% due to declines or growth [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector, which has faced a four-year decline, is beginning to stabilize, with new consumption trends emerging and significant breakthroughs in drug development [4]. - The market is seeing an influx of new capital, with state-owned enterprises supporting the market, insurance funds investing in high-dividend stocks, and speculative funds driving up small-cap stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic rebalancing in asset allocation to maintain the intended risk and return profile of an investment portfolio amidst market fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation and Market Dynamics - Asset allocation involves distributing funds across various asset types, such as stocks and bonds, to achieve specific investment goals [1]. - Market volatility can lead to a drift in the initial asset allocation, affecting the risk profile and potentially leading to missed opportunities or increased risk exposure [2][3]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing Strategy - Dynamic rebalancing is based on the principle of mean reversion, where asset prices tend to fluctuate around an average level over time [3]. - Without dynamic rebalancing, an investment portfolio may deviate significantly from its intended asset allocation, leading to unintended risk exposure [3][4]. Group 3: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio strategy allocates funds equally among four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash or short-term treasury bills, aiming for stable returns across different economic conditions [4]. - The initial allocation is 25% for each asset class, which is designed to perform well in varying economic environments [4]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - Data from 2014 to 2025 shows that portfolios with dynamic rebalancing have similar long-term annualized returns compared to those without rebalancing, but with significantly lower maximum drawdowns [7][8]. - The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, is higher for rebalanced portfolios, indicating better performance under similar risk conditions [8]. Group 5: Implementation of Dynamic Rebalancing - The article introduces a dynamic rebalancing signal system, which monitors key asset performance indicators and provides guidance on adjusting asset allocations [9][10]. - This system helps investors maintain discipline in their investment strategies, reducing emotional decision-making during market fluctuations [10][11].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.83%. The total market turnover was 12,143 billion yuan, an increase of 31 billion yuan from the previous day, although 3,500 stocks closed in the red [1]. Sector Performance - The leading sectors included precious metals, solid-state batteries, coal, electricity, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while the industrial mother machine and PEEK materials sectors lagged behind [2]. Stock Movements - High-position stocks mostly adjusted, with Chengfei Integration hitting the daily limit down, and Zhongyida experiencing significant volatility [3]. Gold Market - COMEX gold surged, closing at 3,301.4 USD per ounce, a 1.83% increase. The Hong Kong gold sector rose by 4.90%, while the A-share gold concept sector increased by 2.06%. Notable performers included Zhu Feng Gold (+12.07%) and Zijin Mining (+8.04%) [5][6]. Geopolitical Impact on Gold - Reports indicated that the Israeli military had completed plans to strike Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility, potentially triggering market fears of a "Middle East war." This led to a significant increase in COMEX gold futures trading volume, surpassing 450 billion USD, and a concentrated short covering in the 3,270-3,300 USD range [6][7]. Solid-State Battery Breakthrough - The solid-state battery sector experienced a surge, with stocks like Ningxin New Materials rising by 30% and Lingge Technology increasing over 16%. This was driven by a breakthrough in solid-state electrolyte technology, which addresses safety concerns associated with liquid lithium batteries [9][12]. Chengfei Integration Analysis - Chengfei Integration's stock price surged over 150% with nine consecutive limit-up days, but the company warned of potential irrational speculation and significant trading risks. The stock closed down 10% on the latest trading day [14][15]. The company's primary business focuses on automotive parts and tooling, with a minimal share of revenue from aviation components [16].

A股市场主要指数今日集体收涨，沪指涨0.38%，收报3380.48点；深证成指涨0.77%，收报10249.17点；创业板指涨0.77%，收报2048.46点；北证50 指数涨1.22%创历史新高，收报1473.99点。 行业板块多数收涨，珠宝首饰、家用轻工、生物制品、美容护理、造纸印刷、游戏、包装材料、食品饮料、文化传媒板块涨幅居前，航运港口板块 逆市大跌。 交银国际表示，港股上市后，宁德时代将成为A/H双平台上市企业，可同时吸引中国内地及海外资本，支持海外产能扩张与技术研发;同时可借助欧 洲本地化生产应对贸易不确定性，进一步巩固其在电池领域的全球龙头地位，为中国企业出海树立新标杆。宁德时代电池技术和全球化布局引领行 业，布局换电拓展业务，看好公司长期发展。 01 宁德时代今日港股上市 5月20日，宁德时代在香港联合交易所主板挂牌上市，上市开盘即高开，开盘价296.00港元/股，较发行价上涨12.55%。 宁德时代此次港股上市，全球发售股份总数为1.35亿股，发行价格为263.00港元/股。是次公司集资净额达353.3亿港元，约90%用于推进匈牙利项目 第一及二期建设，约10%用于一般营运资金。 宁德时代H ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 股市马斯克 来源：雪球 上周末，美股市场最大的新闻就是穆迪下调了美国国债的信用评级 至此，国际三大信用评级机构全面取消了对美债的AAA评级 这充分说明了当前贸易逆差持续存在，老美借新债换旧债的经济发展模式不可持续 美债虽然极小可能会发生违约，但是持续扩大的美债规模背后蕴含的金融风暴正在持续扩大 因为这一消息出现自美股尾盘，美股在最后时刻行情市场并没有及时反映，所以三大指数上周五还是涨的 比如纳斯达克综合指数收涨0.52%，周涨7.15%，标普500指数收涨0.70%，周涨5.27% 但是期货市场已经反映出了这种利空消息的影响，纳斯达克100指数主连在周五最后时刻下跌约0.5%的百分 点 今早亚洲时段开盘，美股夜盘开始交易，三大股指期货集体跳水 这种美债信用评级的下调会导致市场对美元的信用危机增加 在权益资产上可能会抛售美股，在债券市场则是抛售债券，在大宗商品市场则是增持黄金 不过这次的下调评级对市场的冲击可能更多的是短期的，并且影响相比此前也会有一些，尤其是对债券市场 以前评级机构下调美债评级之后，会导致很多资管公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment from a long-term perspective, focusing on the intrinsic value of companies rather than short-term stock price fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment should be viewed as owning a business, where the focus is on the cash flow generated over time rather than daily price changes [2]. - The essence of successful investing lies in optimizing the allocation of retained earnings, akin to nurturing a hen that lays eggs, where returns come from dividends and reinvestment [2]. - Evaluating a company's value involves discounting all future free cash flows, leading to a distinction between overvalued and undervalued stocks based on their lifecycle value [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Psychology - Investors face both explicit financial costs and implicit psychological costs, with anxiety and uncertainty being significant factors in decision-making [3]. - The article suggests that a clear investment strategy can simplify complex decisions, reducing the emotional burden associated with market fluctuations [3]. - The mindset of focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term gains can lead to better investment outcomes, as illustrated by the example of holding onto a stock until its potential is fully realized [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" is introduced as a strategy for long-term investment and asset allocation, emphasizing diversification across assets, markets, and timing to enhance returns and mitigate risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on Walmart due to increased tariffs and the company's decision to raise prices, which has drawn criticism from former President Trump, who believes Walmart should absorb the costs instead of passing them on to consumers [4][10]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Walmart - Trump criticized Walmart for planning to raise prices due to tariffs, stating that the company, which made billions in profit last year, should absorb the costs [4][5]. - He emphasized that Walmart's price hikes should not be blamed on tariffs, as the company has already seen significant profits [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Walmart - Walmart reported total revenue of $165.6 billion for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, a 2.5% increase year-over-year, with adjusted operating income of $7.3 billion, up 4.3% [5][7]. - However, the net income attributable to Walmart fell by 12.1% to $4.49 billion, indicating the impact of rising costs on profitability [5][7]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Costs - Walmart's management highlighted the significant cost pressures from tariffs, particularly those imposed on imports from China, which have accelerated since late April [9][8]. - The company is exploring various strategies to mitigate these costs, including diversifying profit sources through e-commerce [9][8]. Group 4: Broader Retail Price Increases - Walmart's price increases may signal a trend for other retailers, as it serves a large portion of American consumers [10]. - Other companies, including Ford and luxury brands, have also announced price hikes, indicating a potential widespread increase in retail prices [10]. Group 5: Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped significantly, with the May index falling to 50.8, the second-lowest level recorded since 1978 [12][14]. - Inflation expectations among consumers have risen, with one-year expectations increasing to 7.3%, the highest since 1981 [14][12].