广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月社融增加 1.16 万亿元，同比多增约 1.2 万亿元，和市场平均预期大致相当（ WIND 口径）； 社融存量增速为 8.7% ，较上月提升 0.3pct 。各分项中，实体信贷同比少增，未贴现银行承兑汇票与政府 债融资同比大幅多增，其余分项变化有限。 第二， 新增实体信贷 844 亿元，在低基数环境下同比少增 2505 亿元，低于市场预期，和前期出来的 4 月 BCI 企业融资环境指数下降了 3.8 个点至 48 的情况较为吻合。我们理解可能与三个因素有关：一是 4 月关 税冲击下，微观主体均存在较强的观望情绪和审慎预期；二是 4 月一揽子金融政策尚未启动，金融机构行为 上不排除更偏内生的顺周期特征。 5 月初金融监管总局强调"确保应贷尽贷、应续尽续"，实际上就是部署金 融机构逆周期纾困；三是 3 月银行存在较强的利用企业短期融资冲量特征，跨季后在 4 月到期偿还规模也较 高。 第三， 从结构上看，企业部门短贷、中长贷同比都有不同程度的少增，仅票据融资由于风险较低、易冲量继 续保持在同期高点。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that in April, new RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, while the new social financing scale was 1,158.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1,224.3 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The decline in new loans is attributed to seasonal factors, with April traditionally being a "small credit month," and increased global trade frictions contributing to market uncertainty and a slowdown in credit expansion for foreign trade enterprises and residents [2][3] - Corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan in April, which is a decrease of 250 billion yuan compared to April of the previous year, while household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In April, corporate medium- and long-term loans, short-term loans, and bill financing increased by 250 billion yuan, decreased by 480 billion yuan, and increased by 834.1 billion yuan respectively, with significant decreases in medium- and long-term loans compared to April 2024 [3] - The changes in corporate loans are linked to a sharp change in the external environment in April, leading to increased uncertainty in future expectations for enterprises [3] - The focus of economic policy remains on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, particularly in service consumption, with the central bank establishing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension relending" program to support key sectors [3][4]

去年四季度，用于化债的特殊再融资专项债发行超2万亿元，今年前4个月又发行了近1.6万亿元。业内 专家称，据估算，对应置换的贷款约有2.1万亿元。还原后，4月末人民币贷款增速维持在8%以上。 地方债务置换不影响金融支持实体经济力度，而且利好经济长远发展。业内专家进一步分析，长远看， 地方债务置换有利于减轻地方化债压力，让其卸下包袱、轻装上阵，畅通资金链条。 央行5月14日发布的数据显示，4月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，广义货币（M2）余额同比增 长8%，增速均较3月末时明显加快；人民币贷款余额同比增长7.2%，还原地方债务置换影响后增速超过 8%。 业内专家表示，金融总量数据增长既"稳"又"实"，体现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。4月是传统的信 贷"小月"，从前4个月的整体情况看，我国金融总量上行，融资价格下行，呵护宏观经济稳定运行。 展望未来，业内专家称，近期一揽子金融政策措施的推出，有效提振了市场信心，将对实体经济有效需 求的恢复起到积极作用。金融总量仍有望保持平稳增长，稳固经济持续回升向好基础。 核心数据一览 金融对实体经济支持力度仍较大 数据显示，4月末，人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7 ...

整体来看，主要受隐债置换、季末透支及关税战骤然升级等影响，4月新增贷款有所回落。同期新增社融大幅度同比多增，4月末M2增速较上月末 也有显著上升。分析人士指出，两个主要金融总量增速加快，表明当前金融对实体经济支持力度增强，预计下半年央行会继续实施降息降准。 信贷结构持续优化 居民买房投资更趋理性 新增信贷方面，前4个月人民币贷款增加10.06万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加5184亿元，其中，短期贷款减少2416亿元，中长期贷款增加7601 亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加3.03万亿元，中长期贷款增加5.83万亿元，票据融资增加2899亿元；非银行业金 融机构贷款增加768亿元。 4月是信贷小月，单月新增信贷有所回落。综合央行此前披露的数据，北京商报记者进一步统计发现，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，环比季节性 少增3.36万亿元，同比少增4500亿元。从分项来看，4月企业贷款同比少增2500亿元，同期企业中长期贷款、企业短贷和票据融资同比分别少增 1600亿元、700亿元和40亿元；居民贷款同比少增50亿元，中长期贷款同比多增435亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，4月信 ...

中国人民银行当日发布的金融统计数据显示，4月末，我国人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7.2%；社会融资规模存量为424万亿元，同 比增长8.7%；广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。 "4月是季初信贷'小月'，但从前4个月新增贷款超10万亿元来看，总量保持平稳，为经济回升向好提供了有力支持。"清华大学国家金融研究院 院长田轩认为，4月新增贷款约2800亿元，在还原地方债务置换影响后，当月信贷增速依然保持较高水平。同时，社会融资规模增速继续加 快，M2余额保持在320万亿元以上，这些保障了实体经济的融资需求。 14日，4月金融统计数据出炉。作为信贷投放的"小月"，4月金融数据有何亮点？信贷资金主要流向了哪些领域？利率调整还有多大空间？ 在专家看来，未来一段时期，金融总量仍有望保持平稳增长。5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会联合推出一揽子金融政策。根据安 排，降准0.5个百分点将于15日落地，预计向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 "这意味着金融机构被央行锁定的钱进一步减少，对企业的中长期资金供给有望随之增加。"西南财经大学中国金融研究院副教授万晓莉表示， 降准所释放的资金可持续 ...

从存量结构看，4月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的61.9%，同比低0.9 个百分点；政府债券余额占比20.3%，同比高2.1个百分点；企业债券余额占比7.7%，同比低0.4个百分 点。 从增量看，2025年前四个月社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。其中，对 实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元，同比多增3397亿元；政府债券净融资4.85万亿元，同比多 增3.58万亿元；企业债券净融资7591亿元，同比少4095亿元。4月当月，社会融资规模新增1.16万亿元。 分析人士表示，政府债券发行加快是前四个月社融最主要的拉动因素。今年财政预算赤字率提高至 4%，计划新增国债、特别国债、地方专项债等政府债券近12万亿元，规模创历史新高。发行节奏上， 年初以来国债、地方专项债发行进度也明显快于往年，用于化债的2万亿元特殊再融资专项债也发行了 约70%。近期财政部还启动了支持"两重""两新"的1.3万亿元特别国债，预计后续特别国债的发行进度仍 会保持较快速度，促进拉动需求，提振社会信心，对社融形成有力支撑。 上述分析人士进一步指出，还原地方债务置换影响后，信 ...

5月14日，央行发布4月金融统计数据显示，4月末，人民币各项贷款余额265.70万亿元，同比增长 7.2%；1-4月，人民币各项贷款增加10.06万亿元，与上年同期大致持平。 4月份，虽然新增贷款规模有所放缓，但从结构上看，普惠小微贷款、制造业中长期贷款等增速均高于 同期各项贷款增速。同时，贷款利率保持在历史低位水平。 有业内人士指出，今年一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，在去年同期高基数上继续保持较快增速，消费、投 资等主要宏观经济指标均明显好转，既反映了去年9月以来一揽子增量政策效果持续显现，也体现出中 央经济工作会议和全国"两会"后，各项宏观政策及时响应、协同发力，社会信心持续提振。 融资成本"往下走"金融总量有望继续保持合理增长 4月份，我国金融总量"有上行"，从前4个月金融总量数据看，社会融资规模、广义货币M2、人民币贷 款增速持续高于名义GDP增速，金融对实体经济支持的力度仍然较大。市场人士表示，金融总量数据持 续较好，体现出央行逆周期调节和金融稳经济的效果。 同时，我国融资成本"往下走"。央行数据显示，4月份企业新发放贷款加权平均利率约为3.2%，比上月 低约4个基点，比上年同期低约50个基点；个人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility at the beginning of Trump's second term, but this may not be a significant issue as some strategists believe it could lead to beneficial outcomes for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the November 5 election, the market surged as investors anticipated a business-friendly approach from President Trump [1]. - During Trump's first 100 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 8% [3]. - Strategists are finding reasons to believe that Trump may not fulfill his campaign promises, leading to skepticism about the market's optimistic outlook [3]. Group 2: Uncertainty and Its Implications - Albert Edwards argues that uncertainty, often seen as a market enemy, could actually benefit Wall Street by keeping investors alert [3][4]. - The term "uncertainty" has become prevalent in discussions, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell used it extensively in a March press conference [3]. - Edwards suggests that excessive certainty can lead to increased debt levels, which could be detrimental to the market [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Corporate Impact - The Federal Reserve's attempts to ensure a soft landing and reduce volatility may inadvertently encourage credit and financial bubbles [6][7]. - Edwards warns that the current political climate, characterized by populist interventionist policies, could undermine the stock market's bullish trend [10]. - He highlights the issue of price gouging during the pandemic, where unit costs rose while corporate profit margins reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in regulatory stance under Trump [10]. Group 4: Future Regulatory Changes - Edwards anticipates that Trump may push for stronger competition regulations, which could negatively impact corporate profit margins as companies are forced to absorb increased costs from tariffs [10]. - The potential for regulatory changes could create further uncertainty in the market, which may not be the worst outcome for investors [11].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Financial Support - The financial total is expected to maintain reasonable growth following the introduction of a package of incremental policies in May, which will solidify the foundation for the continuous recovery of the domestic economy [1] - Despite increased external uncertainties since April, the domestic economy shows strong resilience, with social financing scale growth accelerating and RMB loan balance increasing by 7.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The foreign trade growth trend continues, with the total value of goods trade in the first four months increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in RMB terms and 1.3% in USD terms, indicating a recovery in export resilience [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Improvement - From January to April, RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with the balance of inclusive small and micro loans reaching 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing at 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% [2] - The evolution of credit structure reflects economic structural changes, with a notable shift in loan distribution towards real enterprises, as corporate loans increased from 63% to approximately 68% of total loans from 2021 to present [3] - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises rose from 31% to about 38%, while loans to large and medium enterprises decreased from 69% to about 62%, indicating a significant impact from inclusive small and micro loan initiatives [3] Group 3: Industry Focus and Policy Direction - Financial institutions have increasingly directed credit resources towards manufacturing and technological innovation, with the proportion of manufacturing loans in total medium to long-term loans rising from 5.1% to approximately 9.3% since 2021 [4] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is shifting towards promoting consumption, with financial policies aimed at supporting high-quality consumer goods supply, while addressing employment, income, and social security issues to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [4][5] - The development of consumer finance aims to expand effective consumer demand and ensure that consumer loans are genuinely used to support consumption, emphasizing a principle of reasonable moderation [5] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank and other departments released a package of policy measures on May 7, including interest rate cuts and structural tool optimizations, to create a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [6] - The central bank's recent monetary policy practices have focused on a combination of different policy tools to enhance effectiveness, benefiting various market participants and boosting market expectations and investment confidence [6][7] - Recent structural policy adjustments by the central bank are aligned with the macroeconomic strategy of tapping economic potential and promoting consumption, indicating a clear focus on technology and consumption as key support areas [7]

今年以来，信贷结构持续改善，支持经济结构转型。第一财经从央行获悉，从企业和居民角度看， 2021年至今，企业贷款占比由63%升至约68%，居民贷款占比相应由37%降至约32%，一升一降的背 后，表明信贷资金更多投向了实体企业，居民融资需求下降也与买房投资等更趋理性有关；从行业投 向看，2021年至今，在全部中长期贷款中，制造业占比由5.1%升至约9.3%，消费类行业占比由9.6% 升至约11.2%，而传统的房地产和建筑业占比则由15.9%降至约13%。 ...