美联储古尔斯比：利率仍处于历史区间内，如果美国财政稳定性出现危机，利率将会走高。 ...

欧洲央行管委兼德国央行行长Nagel：仍有望于2025年实现2%的通胀目标。 利率不再被称为限制性。 在货币政策上需要保持谨慎。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating on the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since 2020, there have been three main scenarios for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts: 1) RRR cuts change the market's expectation of the liquidity situation, catalyzing a decline in bond market interest rates; 2) RRR cuts do not significantly change market expectations and continue the bond market trend, with the yield curve steepening; 3) After RRR cuts, the market's expectation of the liquidity situation changes from loose to tight, and there is upward pressure on interest rates [6][53]. - The impact of RRR cuts on the bond market mainly includes: 1) After RRR cuts, the liquidity rate usually remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates are likely to decline, with the curve often showing a bull - steepening pattern; 2) In most cases, long - term interest rates decline with RRR cuts and liquidity easing, but there are two exceptions; 3) The scale of other tool injections after RRR cuts is positively correlated with the liquidity rate [6][54]. - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario, where it continues the bond market trend and increases the possibility of curve steepening. For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile [6][55]. Group 3: Summary Based on the Report's Content 1. Three Scenarios of RRR Cuts Since 2020 - **Scenario 1: Catalyzing Bond Market Interest Rate Decline** - RRR cuts occur after a significant seasonal increase in the liquidity rate. After the RRR cut, the central bank's net injection may decline or increase, but the liquidity rate will eventually return to stability or decline significantly, and long - term interest rates will decline due to the shift from tight to loose monetary expectations [6][53]. - Examples include July 2021, December 2021, December 2022, and March 2023. Before these RRR cuts, the DR007 central rate increased by more than 10bp compared to the historical average. After the RRR cuts, most of the central bank's other liquidity injection tools reduced their scale, and the liquidity rate returned to stability or declined significantly, and long - term interest rates also declined [10][13][18]. - **Scenario 2: Continuing the Bond Market Trend** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity. After the RRR cut, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreases or remains low, but the liquidity pressure can be effectively hedged. The liquidity rate remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates decline. The long - term interest rate depends on whether the fundamental expectation can be quickly improved, and there are opportunities to steepen the yield curve [6][53]. - Examples are April 2022, February 2024, and September 2024. After the RRR cuts, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreased, and the liquidity rate remained stable or declined. Short - term interest rates declined, and the impact on long - term interest rates was uncertain, but there were opportunities to steepen the curve [23][28][30]. - **Scenario 3: Upward Pressure on Interest Rates After RRR Cuts** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity, and are accompanied by a significant increase in other liquidity injections. Usually due to factors such as the Spring Festival and high government bond supply, the liquidity rate increases in the month of the RRR cut. The interest rate trend depends on the persistence of the liquidity tightening [6][53]. - Examples are January 2020 and September 2023. After the RRR cuts, the central bank maintained a high - scale injection, but the liquidity rate still increased. The bond market trend depends on the duration of the liquidity tightening [39][42][47]. 2. Comparison of the Current RRR Cut with Historical Scenarios - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario. Since April, the market's expectation of loose money has been restored. In May, although the net financing of interest - bearing bonds has increased marginally, the bank's liability pressure has eased. If the liquidity rate remains stable during the current period, short - term rates such as certificate of deposit (CD) rates may decline further in June [6][55]. - For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile. The RRR cut did not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity or a significant decline in the capital market, and the impact on the market's liquidity expectation is limited. The probability of significant weakening or strengthening of the fundamental expectation after the RRR cut is low [6][55].

| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-05-21 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 偏淡，对铅价的支撑较为有限。库存方面，海外库存继续去库，但幅度较小，需求受到关税影响明显；国 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 内库存小幅增加，但是海外价格压制国内价格上行空间。从铅精矿加工角度来看，虽然没有波动，但是依 旧维持低位，因此对于后续再生铅和原生铅复工起到了部分影响。操作上建议，逢高空为主。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价 ...

美元： 非美主要货币： 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（5月21日） 1. 日本央行：部分成员表示，由于日本央行缩减购债规模，日本国债市场功能呈改善趋势。 4. 英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：鉴于通胀前景，自去年夏季以来每季度25个基点的降息节奏"过于激 进"。反对降息的投票不应被视为支持停止降息。 5. 欧洲央行-执委施纳贝尔：供给方面的冲击可能会持续，并有可能动摇通胀预期，我们必须做好迅速 应对的准备。管委诺特：中期通胀前景太不确定，很难说我们是否需要在6月降息。管委温施：利率可 能需要"温和地提供支持"。市场对利率的预期是合理的。 4. 美联储-穆萨莱姆：超高不确定性正促使家庭和企业暂停支出和投资，如果这种情况持续下去，将导 致经济增长大幅放缓。博斯蒂克：国债市场的进一步不稳定将增加不确定性。不确定性增加将导致政策 调整进一步推迟。哈玛克：通胀预期保持在相当稳定的水平，如果发生变化，这可能是美联储需要采取 行动的信号。 1. 白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：毫无疑问，通胀和利率正在下降。 2. 美国总统特朗普：不通过税收法案的替代方案就是大幅增税。 3. 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧：美联储处境艰难， ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on May 20, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 357 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 177 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 180 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [2][3] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions decreased by approximately 2 basis points [4] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.3% [4] Group 2: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.67%, showing a decline from the previous day [6] - The yields on major interbank bonds are as follows: 1-year government bonds at 1.4425%, 2-year at 1.4775%, 3-year at 1.4985%, 5-year at 1.5385%, 7-year at 1.6135%, and 10-year at 1.6670% [8] - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a slight decline for the 5-year and 2-year contracts, while the 10-year contract saw a marginal increase [10] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points in May, with the 1-year LPR now at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [11] - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 reached 15.8% in April, while the rate for those aged 25-29 is 7.1%, and for ages 30-59, it is 4.0% [11] Group 4: Global Economic Context - The European Central Bank's executive board member noted that inflation is returning to normal, but new challenges arise from tariffs, which may have short-term anti-inflation effects but could pose upward risks in the medium term [13] Group 5: Bond Market Developments - As of April 2025, foreign institutions hold 4.44 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market [15] - The China Financial Futures Exchange announced the addition of deliverable bonds for 10-year government bond futures [17] - Recent negative events in the bond market include extensions for debt restructuring by certain companies and rating observations for others [17]

欧洲央行WUNSCH表示， 利率可能需要"温和支持性"，市场对利率的押注"合理"。 ...

欧洲央行管委温施：利率可能需要"温和地提供支持"。 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：毫无疑问，通胀和利率正在下降。 ...

Macroeconomic Environment - The US CPI and core CPI growth rates in April were lower than expected, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pushed inflation upward [2] - Retail data in April showed a substantial slowdown, likely due to a decrease in preemptive purchases by households before tariff implementation [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with market predictions for interest rate cuts reduced from three to two [2] - In Europe, officials indicated that US tariff policies could lead to greater recessionary pressures in the Eurozone, potentially allowing for further interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's CPI growth rate in April was negative for the third consecutive month, primarily affected by oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [3] - The PPI decline was exacerbated by falling prices in downstream industries due to tariff impacts [3] - Financial data showed an increase in social financing in April, supported by government bond issuance and a decline in credit bond rates, although corporate and household credit demand remained weak [3] - The central bank emphasized a flexible monetary policy approach, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions remained weak, while agricultural wholesale prices decreased [3] - Steel prices increased, but cement prices fell [3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, while non-ferrous metal prices generally increased [3] Fixed Income Market - The trade relationship has shown temporary easing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [5] - In April, exports to the US saw a significant decline, but transshipment trade supported exports to ASEAN, which increased by 20.8% [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal of over 400 billion yuan did not prevent a decline in funding rates, with DR007 and DR001 falling to approximately 1.50% and 1.40% respectively [6] - The primary market saw 67 new bond issues totaling 946.4 billion yuan, with net financing of 658.7 billion yuan, indicating a higher than usual issuance pace [6] Market Outlook - The upcoming months may see a further manifestation of export rush effects, but domestic inflationary pressures are expected to remain limited [7] - The easing of large-scale policy expectations following positive developments in US-China talks may temper market sentiment [7] - The recent monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to lead to a downward shift in funding rate benchmarks, potentially limiting the rise in bond market yields [8]