行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周（10.18-10.24）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.5%，在各板 块中位列第 18；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.2%，在各板块中位列第 8。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为 +2.2%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+3.9%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+3.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收益分别为-1.7%和-1%。 土地市场溢价率处于低位。本周（10.18-10.24）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 1521 万㎡，单周环比 52%，单周同比 -14%，平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 33812 万㎡，累计同比-9.9%；年初至今，中海 地产、绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、招商蛇口的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(10.18-10.24)47 个城市商品房销售 429 万方，成交量环比+4%，同比-13%，整体处于季节性低位；9 月新房 售价环比-0.4%，环比跌幅略有扩大，同比-2.7%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看： 一线城市周环比+10%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, despite a decline in sales data [6][13] - The report highlights a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing sales across major cities, indicating a challenging market environment [4][31] - The issuance of credit bonds by real estate companies has seen a substantial increase, suggesting a shift towards more stable financial practices among leading firms [5][6] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 1.51%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 3.24%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [3][11] Industry Fundamentals - In the week of October 17-23, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 27,009 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.7% [4][21] - The total transaction area for new homes was 2.773 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 18.9% [21] - For second-hand homes, 19,924 units were sold, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a total area of 192.6 million square meters sold [31] Land Market Analysis - Land supply increased significantly, with 27.053 million square meters supplied, a year-on-year growth of 89.7% [5] - The average land price was 1,731 yuan per square meter, up 4.3% year-on-year [5] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 22.255 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year increase of 197.93% and a month-on-month increase of 305.37% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, which are better positioned to navigate market fluctuations [6] - Property management companies are also expected to benefit from a recovery in market demand, with recommendations to monitor firms like China Resources Land and Poly Property [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current status and trends of public REITs in China, indicating that they are entering a new era and may assist real estate companies in strategic transformation [5] - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, proposing new models and focusing on "good housing" as a fundamental aspect [7] - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou shows a significant increase in high-priced listings, although overall transaction volumes are expected to remain volatile [7] Group 2 - Industry data reveals a narrowing decline in housing prices and a year-on-year increase in construction completions, suggesting a stabilization in the industry, although further efforts are needed [7] - The land supply and demand scale remains low, with a slight increase in land transaction volume and a premium rate of 1.6%, indicating that only a few quality plots are experiencing localized heat [9] - A joint statement from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments outlines a top-level approach to urban development, focusing on resilient city infrastructure [10] Group 3 - CIFI Construction Management expanded its project portfolio by 17 new projects in Q3 2025, while New Town Construction Management signed contracts for over 570,000 square meters [11] - The article highlights the successful sales of lighthouse strategic benchmark projects by CIFI, with expectations for several new projects to enter the market in Q4, indicating potential future growth [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, indicating that the industry is currently in an adjustment phase and will focus on achieving higher living standards during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] Group 1: Real Estate Development Strategy - The real estate industry will focus on the construction of "good houses" and urban renewal as key strategies, aiming to create new demand through new supply [1] - The industry is expected to enhance risk prevention by strengthening regulation throughout the entire process of real estate development, financing, sales, and exit [1] - A project "white list" system will be implemented to ensure the delivery of commodity housing projects, with a focus on promoting the sale of existing houses to mitigate delivery risks [1] Group 2: Service Enhancement in Real Estate - Future real estate development should shift from a focus on construction to providing services throughout the entire lifecycle of properties, emphasizing the importance of both hardware and software aspects [2] - The property service sector is seen as having significant growth potential, which has been largely underestimated, and efforts should be made to improve service levels in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and household services [2] - The implementation of residential service enhancement actions is encouraged to provide better living services for residents and expand new growth opportunities within the industry [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, with a focus on creating "good houses" and urban renewal during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The real estate market in China is currently in an adjustment cycle, and the development will revolve around achieving a higher level of housing quality [1] - The industry should enhance risk prevention by strengthening regulation throughout the entire process of real estate development, financing, and sales [1] Group 2 - The future of the real estate industry should focus on lifecycle services rather than just development, emphasizing the importance of both hardware and software in housing [2] - The property service sector has significant growth potential that has been largely underestimated, and there is a need to improve service levels in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and domestic services [2] - Implementing actions to enhance residential services will not only improve living conditions for citizens but also expand new growth opportunities for the industry [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The weak trend of housing prices continued in September 2025, with a 0.4% month - on - month decline in the prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities and a 0.6% decline in second - hand housing prices. [1] - In September, real - estate sales showed resilience through "trading price for volume", with a 48.5% month - on - month increase in the sales area of new homes and a 47.2% increase in sales volume. [1] - After the National Day, second - hand housing transactions in 15 cities increased for two consecutive weeks, indicating strong market resilience, while the recovery momentum of the new - home market weakened. [2] - The industry is accelerating towards "high - quality development", with policy signals indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" and from "incremental development" to "stock operation". [4] 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Transaction Data - **Second - hand housing**: In the week of October 17 - 23, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.33 million square meters, a 7% week - on - week increase, reaching 79% of the annual high. Although it decreased by 14% year - on - year due to the high base last year, it still had a 11% positive growth compared to the same period in 2023. [2] - **New homes**: In the week of October 17 - 23, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities was 2.82 million square meters, a 3% week - on - week increase, but a 19% year - on - year decline. From October 1 - 23, the year - on - year decline widened to 24%. [2] 3.2 City - Level Analysis - **Second - hand housing**: First - tier cities' weekly transactions declined for two consecutive weeks, with a 2% decline this week. Second - and third - tier cities performed well, with a 14% and 12% week - on - week increase in transaction areas respectively. [3] - **New homes**: The new - home market showed "first - tier cities rebounding, second - and third - tier cities weakening". First - tier cities' transactions rebounded by 15% week - on - week, and third - tier cities increased by 12%, while second - tier cities decreased by 7%. [3] 3.3 Key City Observations - **First - tier cities**: From October 17 - 23, the second - hand housing transaction area in first - tier cities decreased by 2% week - on - week and 21% year - on - year. The new - home transaction area increased by 15% week - on - week and decreased by 19% year - on - year. [29] - **Other key cities**: In Hangzhou, the second - hand and new - home transaction areas decreased by 4% and 38% respectively compared to the previous week. In Chengdu, they increased by 12% and 2% respectively. [30] 3.4 Housing Price Observations - **Second - hand housing**: In September 2025, the second - hand housing price index in first - tier cities continued to decline, with a 1.0% month - on - month decline and a 3.2% year - on - year decline. [55] - **New homes**: In September 2025, the price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. [55]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key goals set by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the improvement of people's living standards and the importance of enhancing public services, particularly in the areas of social security, education, healthcare, and support for the elderly and children [1][3]. Group 1: Public Services and Social Welfare - The focus on improving public services is crucial for addressing the urgent needs of the population, particularly in social security and essential services like education and healthcare [4][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand basic public services, particularly in areas related to the elderly and children, such as childcare and elderly care services [4][5]. - The government is expected to increase financial investment and innovate service delivery models to enhance public service provision [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Development and Common Prosperity - High-quality economic development is essential for achieving common prosperity, with a focus on industrial growth, technological advancement, and job creation to ensure income growth for the population [4][5]. - Rural development and revitalization are critical for reducing the urban-rural income gap, emphasizing the need to address shortcomings in rural areas to support overall prosperity [4][5]. Group 3: Housing and Real Estate - The article highlights the importance of housing as a public service issue, advocating for the real estate sector to focus on meeting the housing needs of the population rather than merely economic growth [7][8]. - The emphasis on high-quality development in real estate is seen as vital for addressing housing shortages and improving living conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Social Mobility and Employment - The need to eliminate barriers to labor mobility and employment discrimination is emphasized, with a call for policies that promote equal opportunities for all individuals [8][9]. - Providing flexible and targeted vocational training is essential for enabling individuals to transition between careers and avoid "involution" in competition [8][9]. Group 5: Equalization of Basic Public Services - The article discusses the progress made in equalizing basic public services and the challenges ahead, particularly in maintaining service quality amid fiscal constraints [10][11]. - The shift from a household registration system to a permanent resident-based system for public service access is highlighted as a necessary reform to ensure equal rights for all residents [10][11].

Core Insights - The central theme of the articles is the transition of China's real estate industry towards "high-quality development," as emphasized in the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, marking a shift from quantity expansion to quality enhancement [1][5][7]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Industry Transition - The Fourth Plenary Session's focus on "high-quality development" indicates a strategic upgrade in the real estate sector, moving from short-term market rescue to long-term foundational building [7]. - The policy framework includes a combination of measures aimed at addressing current market contradictions and outlining a clear path for the new model of real estate development, which emphasizes quality over quantity [1][3][7]. - The government aims to enhance housing quality through standards that prioritize safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, as outlined in the new residential project regulations [3][6]. Group 2: Achievements and Developments - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, approximately 50 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and over 24,000 old urban communities were renovated, benefiting over 40 million households [2][3]. - The "guarantee housing" initiative has successfully delivered over 7.5 million units of sold but undelivered homes, stabilizing market expectations and preventing systemic risks [3]. - The housing security system has been significantly improved, with over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing constructed, benefiting more than 30 million people [2]. Group 3: Future Directions and Expectations - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on urban renewal, improving housing security, and constructing high-quality homes, laying the groundwork for a new pattern of high-quality development in real estate [9]. - The emphasis on urban renewal is anticipated to stimulate investment and consumption, while also addressing the housing needs of young people and new residents in cities [6][9]. - The real estate sector is expected to continue adhering to the "housing is for living, not for speculation" principle, with a focus on a balanced supply system that integrates both market and security aspects [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes "promoting high-quality development" in the real estate sector, marking a shift from quantity expansion to quality enhancement in the industry [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Industry Transition - The policy framework focuses on "strict control of increment and optimization of stock," aiming for a quality-oriented approach in housing construction and financing support for real estate companies [3][4]. - The transition to high-quality development is seen as essential for the healthy growth of the industry and meeting the public's aspirations for better living conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, approximately 50 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and the stock housing market has expanded significantly, with 15 provinces seeing higher transaction volumes in second-hand homes than new ones [4]. - Over 1.1 million units of various types of affordable housing were constructed, benefiting over 30 million people, showcasing the government's commitment to addressing housing issues [4][5]. Group 3: High-Quality Development Goals - The high-quality development goal includes enhancing the construction quality of homes and improving industry management and product supply systems [7][8]. - The focus is on aligning high-quality development with housing goals, ensuring economic rationality and quality improvement in the sector [8]. Group 4: New Development Model - The new development model aims to deepen reforms in the real estate sector, improve the housing supply system, and establish a new mechanism linking people, housing, land, and finance [5][9]. - The emphasis on urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" is expected to stimulate investment and consumption, providing ongoing momentum for the real estate sector [9].

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes "promoting high-quality development of real estate" as a key component of improving people's livelihoods, marking a shift in the sector's role from merely a tool for economic stimulus to a critical element in national strategies such as consumption promotion and new urbanization [1][2] Group 1: Policy Direction - The focus on high-quality development indicates a transition from scale expansion to enhancing quality and content in the real estate sector [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims to construct safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses," with a comprehensive upgrade in housing standards, design, materials, and construction processes [3][4] - The new national standard for "good houses" includes 14 enhancements, such as increasing ceiling heights and requiring elevators in buildings over four stories [3] Group 2: Future Development Models - The new development model aims to address the significant changes in supply-demand relationships in the real estate market, focusing on optimizing existing housing resources and increasing the supply of affordable housing [6] - Urban renewal is highlighted as a crucial strategy for high-quality urban development, with expectations for it to play a significant role in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [5] Group 3: Market Adjustments - Future policy adjustments will focus on three core changes: comprehensive promotion of high-quality development, accelerated formation of urban-rural and regional collaborative development, and improved balance between social welfare and market functions [6][7][8] - The real estate market will shift from a focus on "just having" to "how good" housing is, emphasizing safety, comfort, and sustainability [4][6] - The balance between social welfare and market functions will be enhanced, ensuring that housing guarantees are more inclusive while maintaining market vitality through supportive policies [8]